Reds Top Prospects June 2012 Edition

[Benihana]

Now that the first 6 rounds of the draft are in the books, I'm comfortable putting out the next edition. Projected starting levels for draftees are in parenthesees. The only exception I make for ranking rookie leaguers is first round picks (Stephenson and Travieso). The others are listed in "Keep An Eye On". Without further ado...

GRADE A

1. Billy Hamilton SS/CF? A+ - Now a Top 25 prospect in the game. Big questions are when he'll get promoted and if/when he'll move to CF.

GRADE B

2. Daniel Corcino RHP AA - Still the crown jewel arm in the system.
3. Kyle Lotzkar RHP AA - If he can continue to stay healthy, he has at least MOR big league potential.
4. Tony Cingrani LHP AA - Great first start in Pensacola. Hopefully he can keep it up.
5. Robert Stephenson RHP R - Curious to see what he can do with the Billings season starting. Would like to see him get some innings in Dayton this season.
6. Nick Travieso RHP (R) - Big upside, long term project. Will be fun to watch him progress with Stephenson and hopefully Garrett.
7. Donald Lutz LF A+ - Will hopefully have newfound competition for biggest bat in the system from Waldrop and Winker. Would like to see him in AA soon.

GRADE C

8. Henry Rodriguez 3B AA - I'd like to see him in AAA when he comes back from the DL. Should get a long look in ST next year.
9. DiDi Gregorius SS AA - He needs to start hitting better to maintain his top prospect status.
10. David Vidal 3B AA - Struggled out of the gate since getting promoted to AA.

ON THE RADAR - Honorable Mention/Just Missed

Kyle Waldrop OF A - Leads current pack of OF in low minors that includes Rodriguez and Duran.
Ryan LaMarre CF AA - Looks like a 4th OF to me.
Yorman Rodriguez OF A+ - Still needs tools to translate to performance.
JC Sulbaran RHP AA - Ditto
Jacob Johnson RHP A - Currently the most interesting full season pitcher outside of AA.
Jeff Gelalich OF (A) - Should start in Dayton. Interested to see if he can outperform his LaMarre comp.
Daniel Langfield RHP (A) - Could he be the right-handed Cingrani or Joseph? Has a better FB than both.

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to tell) - Rookie Leaguers to Watch

Jesse Winker OF - Best power bat in rookie league? Could be cleanup hitting LF...in 5 years.
Tanner Rahier SS/3B - Best (Reds) position player in rookie league...maybe even in all lower minors?
Gabriel Rosa 3B - Should challenge Rahier at every step along the way
Amir Garrett LHP - Will hopefully form a three-headed monster with Stephenson and Travieso, although he is probably farthest away of all.
Ismael Guillon LHP - Hopefully this is the year he gets back on track.


One interesting trend that is emerging is that the Reds' system seems to be bifurcated into two tranches or waves of prospects arriving at different points: the estimated 2014 arrivals and the long-term guys (estimated 2017/2018). In each group you have five pitchers and five position players who should progress and arrive in similar time frames.

In the first group, you have all the AA arms (Corcino, Lotzkar, Cingrani, Sulbaran and Joseph) as well as position players like Hamilton, Lutz, Rodriguez, Gregorius and LaMarre- all of which should be big league ready by 2014 if not earlier.

In the second group, you have also have five pitchers (Stephenson, Travieso, Garrett, Guillon, and Johnson) as well as five position players (Rodriguez, Waldrop, Winker, Rahier and Rosa) who all likely won't be ready until 2017 at the earliest.

There are a couple guys who don't necessarily fit into either category at this point- including Vidal and draftees Gelalich and Langfield, but of course it remains to be seen what these guys can do once they sign. All of the other players on this list seem to fall into one of the two other categories. Just an interesting note.

[RedlegJake]

On the Radar:
Bryson Smith
Brian Pearl
Chad Rogers
Ryan Wright

Keep an eye on:
Jon Moscot

[mth123]

Kurtis Muller - Keep an Eye On
Donnie Joseph - Grade C
Chris Manno - Keep an Eye On
Josh Fellhauer - On The Radar
Tucker Barnhart - On The Radar

[mth123]

I propose a new category, too soon to give up on:

Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez

[Benihana]

Tried to limit the grading to the Top 10 Prospects and the other categories to 5 (with the exception of the two draftees added to ON THE RADAR). Other than Donnie Joseph (which I'll acknowledge), is there a player you mentioned that you would put on any of these lists before any of the ones I mentioned?

Technically, EVERY prospect could be "on the radar" or you could "keep an eye on"

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Tried to limit the grading to the Top 10 Prospects and the other categories to 5 (with the exception of the two draftees added to ON THE RADAR). Other than Donnie Joseph (which I'll acknowledge), is there a player you mentioned that you would put on any of these lists before any of the ones I mentioned?

Technically, EVERY prospect could be "on the radar" or you could "keep an eye on"

Didn't realize we had a number limit. If we have to limit it, I'd probably drop Guillon and Langfield for almost any of the ones that Redlegjake or I mentioned. If I had to pick two to replace them it would be Joseph and Soto.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

Didn't realize we had a number limit. If we have to limit it, I'd probably drop Guillon and Langfield for almost any of the ones that Redlegjake or I mentioned. If I had to pick two to replace them it would be Joseph and Soto.

I don't know. A guy who can't play anywhere but 1B with a sub-700 OPS as a 23 year old isn't really doing it for me. I know he's displayed power in previous years, but I also know he doesn't have a big future in this organization. The only question is whether he has a future in another one.

To me, he profiles as a pinch-hitter at the big league level. A Juan Francisco without the defense. Given his lack of versatility, I'm comfortable leaving him off for now, while acknowledging he merits consideration.

I agree that Joseph should be on the list.

[The DARK]

Benihana, I don't know if we should judge Soto based on his usefulness to our team in particular. True 1B prospects still have worth based solely on the high value of a cost-controlled power bat.

The reason I like Soto on here is that he's dealing with the transition to a pitcher's league and as of right now doesn't have a clear position that he can work towards a promotion for. That's not a great recipe for a breakout first half of a season, and it suggests to me that he'll steadily improve as the season goes on. For all that we talked about Francisco's overwhelming power, he never hit as many home runs in a season as Soto did last season. 23 isn't a bad age for a power hitter in AAA, either.

[bellhead]

I agree I think it's too soon to give up on Soto...for the following reasons..

1.) Age...23, he can repeat AAA with no problem next year.
2.) Power 30 home runs in the minors any year is huge.
3.) He's hit well in the past.

The major problem is he's blocked by maybe the best position player in baseball right now.

Also the starting position for the next several years is looking good. At AA we have 3 or 4 guys who by next year should be at the Ville. This will give Walt some good trade bait or replacements.

[Benihana]

I agree with you both that it is too early to give up on Soto entirely. He would likely be the highest ranking guy that didn't make the list.

However, he doesn't appear to have an above average tool other than his power and has marginal plate discipline. He is limited defensively, and profiles (to me) to be a major league pinch-hitter, albeit one with power.

Daniel Dorn had similar tools (although had stark platoon splits) and is still awaiting his first major league AB at age 27. I do think Soto is a bit better than Dorn (who clubbed 22 HR in AA at age 23), but suffers from many of the same limitations with even less defensive versatility. Soto should not be given up on, but IMO he is not a "Top Prospect" per the title of this thread. If I were ranking all Reds prospects, he would be a fringe Top 20 guy.

[RedlegJake]

I think you should have a Helium or Knocking on the Door category for up and comers that are emerging like Pearl and Daniel Renken, and Villareal (for what he's worth as a starting backup to the big club) and a Sinking category for guys losing their status like Duran and Rodriguez who are living on tools alone without a shred of statistical backup

[Kc61]

Notice how five of the top seven are pitchers.

This organization has become entirely consumed with pitching. Which is probably the best approach to have.

I did think they picked up some promising bats in this particular draft in the sandwich round and the second round. But the organization is really focused on pitching overall.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Notice how five of the top seven are pitchers.

This organization has become entirely consumed with pitching. Which is probably the best approach to have.

I did think they picked up some promising bats in this particular draft in the sandwich round and the second round. But the organization is really focused on pitching overall.

I love the approach - I wish they'd simply pair it with a hitting philosophy of OBP/contact/high average/hard to get out types and let power take care of itself. Hitting seems to follow the same toolsy, power hitting, aggressive swinging free hacking approach (from drafting to teaching)they've had for decades. The one blip was the "take a pitch" commandment a few years ago that all but started an insurrection in the coaching ranks but that Votto credits with his development as a hitter. Just seems the organization values slugging percentage way more than OBP to the detriment of any semblance of balance.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

I love the approach - I wish they'd simply pair it with a hitting philosophy of OBP/contact/high average/hard to get out types and let power take care of itself. Hitting seems to follow the same toolsy, power hitting, aggressive swinging free hacking approach (from drafting to teaching)they've had for decades. The one blip was the "take a pitch" commandment a few years ago that all but started an insurrection in the coaching ranks but that Votto credits with his development as a hitter. Just seems the organization values slugging percentage way more than OBP to the detriment of any semblance of balance.

Votto can say what he wants, but it didn't really help him much. He walked 90 times in each of the two seasons before that rule was put in place. He already had the eye and patience.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Votto can say what he wants, but it didn't really help him much. He walked 90 times in each of the two seasons before that rule was put in place. He already had the eye and patience.

SO, Doug - is it the philosophy or the type of player they draft? It seems every guy that comes up has the same swing away aggressiveness