2013 NBA Offseason News

[Assembly Hall]

Originally Posted by Revering4Blue

Bigger question:

When you consider the fact that the Pacers couldn't beat the heat with Hibbert. Is it a must that they match Portland's offer?

I'm not so sure that the Pacers couldn't get similar production at C at less prohibitive cost, even in a tag-team situation.

Were you Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard, what would you do?

Interesting question Blue. Starting to make me wonder if the Pacers were already aware of what might happen when they drafted Plumlee?

[improbus]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Aldridge is among the best power forwards in the game-- as his 22.73 PER and 11.71 EWA attest. Hibbert's at a 19.35 PER, with the ninth-best EWA for centers in the league. Nicolas Batum has a PER of 17.32 and a EWA of 6.1, both of which rank 8th in the league. That would make the Portland frontcourt starters the cream of the NBA crop, statistically.

Wes Matthews' 2012 PER of 14.12 is below league average, true, and ranks 29th. But his 2011 numbers suggest he can play much, much better. (The addition of Barton and Elliot Williams' excellent PER numbers in limited time should also mitigate possible poor play as well.)

It all hinges on Lillard. If he's a 17/7 guy in 30-35 minutes with good shooting percentages, the Blazers are a top four team in the West. If he struggles to catch up to the speed of the NBA game, they'll struggle as a team. I'm of the opinion, in looking at other top-rated PGs coming out of college over the past decade, he can be at least league average, quite possibly much, much more. (Kyrie Irving was worth 8 wins last season, for example. Stephen Curry was worth about seven three years ago.)

The bench is weak admittedly. But it has some pretty massive upside. Leonard is going to play quite a bit and, with his size and athleticism, should be able to provide better than league average backup minutes. Barton's a wildcard, but, even if he struggles, there are always tons of veterans willing to settle for bench minutes and a couple million dollars. Same thing with Babbit, who, two years ago, was considered among the draft sleepers and is still very, very young.

I'm not saying that team couldn't be good, eventually. But, there is a team to the south of Portland that has a better C than Hibbert (and just as young) better or equal PF to Aldridge, and one of the best SGs in basketball history and couldn't get past the second round, so it is hard to get too excited about that lineup.

Now, Lillard can't possibly be worse than Felton, which is a plus. But, Portland might be the worst run franchise in hoops not located in Charlotte, and that is saying something. They were very shortsighted and petty with both Oden and Roy (I get the feeling Roy retired to get away from Portland), they ran off a successful coach in Nate McMillan, and have filtered through GMs like crazy. So, my confidence in them is very low.

I get the feeling that things wont quite work out, Aldridge will want out, Batum might get a "Blazer like" offer from someone else, and they will be left in a bad spot.

I hate to see them hurting like this. I absolutely loved the Pippen, Rasheed, Arvydas team. It might be my favorite hoops team of all time. How can a team with Rasheed and Arvydas be anything but my favorite.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by improbus

I'm not saying that team couldn't be good, eventually. But, there is a team to the south of Portland that has a better C than Hibbert (and just as young) better or equal PF to Aldridge, and one of the best SGs in basketball history and couldn't get past the second round, so it is hard to get too excited about that lineup.

I'd disagree a whole bunch about Pau Gasol being Aldridge's equal. Gasol's 2012 was the very definition of ordinary. LA also had perhaps the worst PG play of any team in the league. Worse than Felton, in fact. (As hard as that is to believe.) And their small forward and bench rotation were among the league's worst.

In short, LA has/ had a great player, a very good player, an average player, and little else resembling league average play.

I get the Portland questions. But I'm a sucker for young, cap-friendly teams with athletic upside and production. The Blazers have four players that should be among the top 10 players in the league, per position. They also have a couple rookies that could blossom.

Portland's Big Four-- Aldridge, Batum, and Lillard, and Hibbert-- could compare favorably with all but OKC as early as next season. Aldridge is a stud. Batum and Hibbert are very, very good, and Lillard's numbers look great. If Wes Matthews (or another SG) can man up, they're as good as anyone this side of OKC in the West. They've got more cap room to add pieces if need be and an owner historically open to adding talent. (Johnson from the ATL would be a nice guy to grab out from under the Nets' nose. And it wouldn't cost all that much in terms of talent. Only cash.)

[improbus]

And actually, the Portland and Indiana situations highlight the one fatal weakness of the NBA. Portland and Indiana are stuck in the dreaded middle ground. They havent bottomed out to get a LeBron, Durant, or Wade in the draft, but they arent good enough to lure the top free agents. If you don't have at least one A+ player, you have almost no chance to win it all. Right now, there are only a few players that I can see leading their teams to a finals victory:
LeBron
Durant
Kobe (maybe, his window might have closed)
Dwight (if he gets his head straight)
Rose (he needs more help)
Dirk (only if he sobers up from last years championship)

That is about it. I'm not sure a PG can do it (Isaiah was the last over 20 years ago). Duncan isn't that player any more. Garnett is close, but he needs a lot of help on the offensive end. Carmelo hasn't figured out the other side of the ball.

For the record, you can bring up the 2004 Pistons as a counterbalance, but that year was a massive fluke. LeBron wasn't 19. The Lakers should have run everyone over (the Karl Malone injury was actually huge. He was playing really well as a distributer in the high post playing something akin to the Lamar Odom role for the Lakers the last few years). The Pacers should have represented the East, but there was this fight thing... Manu only played 38 games.

So, if you don't have one of those guys, what do you do? Well, you sign Joe Johnson for 19 million a year or Roy Hibbert for 14.5 per year, crippling your cap flexibility and tethering yourself to B level players. That is why I admire what Daryl Morey in Houston is doing. He is going all in after Dwight, even if he says he doesn't want to stay. He is hoping that once Dwight gets there, he will like it and want to keep playing in Houston. Sometimes, you have to roll the dice.

[Revering4Blue]

Originally Posted by Assembly Hall

Interesting question Blue. Starting to make me wonder if the Pacers were already aware of what might happen when they drafted Plumlee?

Plumlee was drafted to fill the role Amundson filled last year--the role Jeff Foster filled for many years.

I was thinking along the lines of, say, Chris Kamen and Ian Mahinmi in a tag-team situation with Plumlee gaining minutes at both C and PF.

One advantage the Pacers have is that they can offer Hibbert a fifth year, possibly back loading the deal. More than likely, Hibbert will remain a Pacer. But if George Hill receives an outrageous offer, the Pacers will have no choice except to let the "hometown hero" go, which puts pressure on both Orlando Johnson and Lance Stephenson to perform--unless the Pacers can sign Mayo or Crawford.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Revering4Blue

Bigger question:

When you consider the fact that the Pacers couldn't beat the heat with Hibbert. Is it a must that they match Portland's offer?

I'm not so sure that the Pacers couldn't get similar production at C at less prohibitive cost, even in a tag-team situation.

Were you Pacers GM Kevin Pritchard, what would you do?

Is Indiana run well enough to find a center that will be able to find a top ten production platoon at center?

When was the last time the Pacers had a center tandem better than Hibbert in terms of Wins Shares?

2003-2004 25-year-old Jermaine O'Neal.

[Revering4Blue]

The Pacers should have represented the East, but there was this fight thing.

Actually, that was the following Fall. It was the Rasheed Wallace heist that Joe Dumars performed at the '04 deadline, one that the Pacers could have/should have just as easily performed, that propelled the Pistons past the Pacers and onto their ensuing championship.

Other than that, I wholeheartedly agree with your post.

[improbus]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I'd disagree a whole bunch about Pau Gasol being Aldridge's equal. Gasol's 2012 was the very definition of ordinary. LA also had perhaps the worst PG play of any team in the league. Worse than Felton, in fact. (As hard as that is to believe.) And their small forward and bench rotation were among the league's worst.

In short, LA has/ had a great player, a very good player, an average player, and little else resembling league average play.

Gasol's play was as much a result of poor positioning as anything else. He shot the same percentages as last year, but because he was playing much further from the basket, he took way more jumpers. In 2010-2011, he took 40% of his shots at the rim, 30% from the paint, and 30% on jumpers. In 2011-2012, he took 34% of his shots at the rim, 23% in the paint, 40% on jumpers, and 3% on 3s (while actually making 7 of 18 corner 3s). Also, he only averaged one point less per game. One last thing on Gasol vs. Aldridge. LaMarcus is the number one option on his team, and Gasol is the number 2 and sometimes 3 option. If Pau got the same number of shots, his scoring would be very similar to LaMarcus.

[improbus]

Originally Posted by Revering4Blue

Actually, that was the following Fall. It was the Rasheed Wallace heist that Joe Dumars performed at the '04 deadline, one that the Pacers could have/should have just as easily performed, that propelled the Pistons past the Pacers and onto their ensuing championship.

Other than that, I wholeheartedly agree with your post.

Rasheed again, I do love that man. Sorry about the year mix up. I always get the two year/single season thing wrong. The same applies to he National Championship game in College Football and the Super Bowl. I can never remember is the Bengals made the Super Bowl for the 1988 or 1989 season...

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by improbus

And actually, the Portland and Indiana situations highlight the one fatal weakness of the NBA. Portland and Indiana are stuck in the dreaded middle ground. They havent bottomed out to get a LeBron, Durant, or Wade in the draft, but they arent good enough to lure the top free agents. If you don't have at least one A+ player, you have almost no chance to win it all. Right now, there are only a few players that I can see leading their teams to a finals victory:
LeBron
Durant
Kobe (maybe, his window might have closed)
Dwight (if he gets his head straight)
Rose (he needs more help)
Dirk (only if he sobers up from last years championship)

This is a very, very good point, though I would probably be comfortable insisting Rondo be added to that group after the playoffs he just had. Dude was Oscar-Robertson-good.

Over the next five years, I might add:
Davis in NOLA (that Davis/ Rivers/ Gordon nucleus is really young and really talented, with inside, outside, and driving abilities)
Cousins in Sacramento (assuming they can find a guard that can actually, y'know, pass the ball-- love TRobinson's game as a fourth option double-double machine)
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in LA might be rightthere if Odom can find his old school game lost somewhere between LA and Dallas (though they might be one dead-eye shooter short)

Beyond that, yeah, there's little hope for anyone else.

[improbus]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

This is a very, very good point, though I would probably be comfortable insisting Rondo be added to that group after the playoffs he just had. Dude was Oscar-Robertson-good.

Over the next five years, I might add:
Davis in NOLA (that Davis/ Rivers/ Gordon nucleus is really young and really talented, with inside, outside, and driving abilities)
Cousins in Sacramento (assuming they can find a guard that can actually, y'know, pass the ball-- love TRobinson's game as a fourth option double-double machine)
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in LA might be rightthere if Odom can find his old school game lost somewhere between LA and Dallas (though they might be one dead-eye shooter short)

Beyond that, yeah, there's little hope for anyone else.

And that is a real shame. But, I guess the NFL is that way with QB's (with the 2002 Bucs and 2000 Ravens filling the Pistons role). MLB is harder to pin down because no one player has the same impact that a QB and NBA star can have. The NHL is way too unpredictable.

[improbus]

I also don't want it to look like I am disparaging LaMarcus. He is a very good player. I would like to see him rebound more for a guy his size and take a few less jumpers, but he can definitely be the second guy on an champ.

[Revering4Blue]

Free Agency Primer: Forwards & Centers

http://www.behindthebasket.com/btb/2...s-centers.html

Free Agency Primer: The Guards

http://www.behindthebasket.com/btb/2...he-guards.html

[texasdave]

Can you throw my Houston Rockets into that mix? Seems like every year they are finishing with a just-barely winning record and finishing 9th in the West. Picking in the middle of the first round is not a winning formula.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Can you throw my Houston Rockets into that mix? Seems like every year they are finishing with a just-barely winning record and finishing 9th in the West. Picking in the middle of the first round is not a winning formula.

Especially when they pick forward after forward after forward.