Justin Upton...again

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

I agree, edabbs44. While I agree that the two Upton brothers have unbelievable potential, they seem to find ways to disappoint when looking back on the season. That, plus the amount that it would take to acquire Justin Upton, makes him a non-target for me.

IMO the two Uptons are apples and oranges at this point. BJ has been a disappointment along the lines of Stubbs in many ways -- useful to be sure, but exasperating in his seeming inability to reach his ceiling. Justin has already put together several MVP-type seasons at age 24 -- and would be a mainstay of the Reds' lineup for years to come.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Upton, 24 with a career OPS of .838
Ludwick, 33 with a career OPS of .787

Also worth mentioning that Upton has had a thumb injury this year that has been holding him back. All signs point to a bounceback second half for him IMO.

This is true. I just think the judgment that the Reds need a cleanup hitter right now are not looking at the bigger picture. You trade all your pieces for Upton and still have Cozart and Stubbs leading off followed by Votto and Upton and the problems are still the same.

[Vottomatic]

Yeah, let's sit tight. Mlbtraderumors reporting the Pirates going after Carlos Quentin.

[Kc61]

Retail price for J Upton would probably be a Jay Bruce straight up. Or a package of three top prospects. I wouldn't do this. I'd rather keep my home grown guys, who I know, than Upton who for whatever reason is on the block.

If, however, the DBacks are anxious to get rid of Upton, if they just don't want him around, then maybe he comes for a bit less. Maybe two top prospects and a Heisey type, or something along those lines. Then I would have great interest.

In sports, sometimes there is an opportunity to get a player for a bit less than retail because he is in an unworkable situation with his current team. Those can be great opportunities for an acquiring club. If that's where the DBacks are, I'd listen hard.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

This is true. I just think the judgment that the Reds need a cleanup hitter right now are not looking at the bigger picture. You trade all your pieces for Upton and still have Cozart and Stubbs leading off followed by Votto and Upton and the problems are still the same.

The Reds need more OBP and hitting against RHP. I wouldn't put it in terms of lead off or cleanup. Batting orders can be manipulated.

What the Reds do not need is another righty power hitter who doesn't get on base and mostly mashes lefties.

If they get a top of the order guy, then they will make do with their current Phillps at cleanup arrangement.

If they get a middle of the order guy, then Phillips leads off. And Dusty led off with Phillips last year, so it's no answer that he won't. He would.

Either way is fine with me as long as they are adding OBP and hitting against righties. My preference is a lead off hitter, but the other approach is fine if it's the right individual.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Retail price for J Upton would probably be a Jay Bruce straight up. Or a package of three top prospects. I wouldn't do this. I'd rather keep my home grown guys, who I know, than Upton who for whatever reason is on the block.

I wouldn't do Bruce for Upton, but I would definitely consider three top prospects. Just not sure the Reds have what it takes to outbid other teams at this point. They won the Latos sweepstakes with their best chips, so they've got less to work with now. That said, I think a package with Hamilton, Chapman or Mesoraco on top is still very competitive. I'd consider giving up one of these guys very seriously if I were them.

OTOH, If the Reds don't want to part with either of those three guys (and I wouldn't blame them at all) then I think they'd probably have to start talks with Heisey and/or Stubbs, along with a SP or two (Corcino, Lotzkar, Cingrani, Stephenson) and a high-upside talent like Y-Rod to put it over the top.

Obviously, pure speculation on my part -- but I think these names would best the offers put forth by, say, Pitt.

[757690]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

This season.

I think the real and only question is, is there a real problem with his shoulder and is that the reason his power is down? If his shoulder is healthy, you buy and you will not have buyers remorse.

From 2009-2011 Upton, at ages 21-23 in the Major Leagues, hit .288/.364/.503. If he is healthy, you trade what you can for him.

Ay, there's the rub.

My thought is that Arizona must know something about his shoulder or another injury, because there is absolutely zero reason why they should trade Upton. He's young, talented and under team control for three more years. Plus Arizona is a very good team right now, it doesn't need to be rebuilding for the future.

If he's healthy, Upton is a perfect fit for the Reds. But I would bet dollars to doughnuts that he's not.

[marcshoe]

I dreamed last night that the Reds traded for Upton, then sat him on the bench.


fwiw, I dreamed they signed Aroldis before they did, but that's been my only accurate prophetic dream. A couple of years ago I dreamed that they invited Cesar Geronimo to spring training, and he outhit everybody on the team.

[dougdirt]

The Reds don't have prospects like they did last year. Or the year before. There simply aren't "for sure" legit Major League starters in the system right now.

Billy Hamilton - Still has questions about his bat and his defensive ability.
Daniel Corcino - Some guys see him as a #3. Some guys see him as a #5.
Robert Stephenson - I doubt he is on the block at all (same for Hamilton for that matter), but he is in rookie ball.
Tony Cingrani - Scouts are still split as to whether he can even be a starter, much less a good one.
Didi Gregorius - Solid prospect, but nothing elite.
Henry Rodriguez - Not an ideal third baseman, hasn't played anywhere else this year. Always had questions about his defense at 2B.
Kyle Lotzkar - Long injury history, tailing performance in AA right now
JC Sulbaran - Very inconsistent.

There isn't a sure fire guy in there. Not one. You trade those types of guys for elite level talents if you can.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by 757690

Ay, there's the rub.

My thought is that Arizona must know something about his shoulder or another injury, because there is absolutely zero reason why they should trade Upton. He's young, talented and under team control for three more years. Plus Arizona is a very good team right now, it doesn't need to be rebuilding for the future.

If he's healthy, Upton is a perfect fit for the Reds. But I would bet dollars to doughnuts that he's not.

If there is something wrong with Upton physically, and they know about it, they would get into alot of trouble trading him for that reason if found out.

[BCubb2003]

Originally Posted by tixe

I dreamed last night that the Reds traded for Upton, then sat him on the bench.


fwiw, I dreamed they signed Aroldis before they did, but that's been my only accurate prophetic dream. A couple of years ago I dreamed that they invited Cesar Geronimo to spring training, and he outhit everybody on the team.

You'd better lay off the Skyline.

[marcshoe]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

You'd better lay off the Skyline.

I won't mention the part about trading Jay Bruce for him.

[AtomicDumpling]

Results of last year's MVP Award voting:

1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Prince Fielder
4. Justin Upton
5. Albert Pujols
6. Joey Votto

[WebScorpion]

I think trading for Justin Upton is a great idea, but like KC61 I wouldn't give up too much for him. The only way I'd give up a lot of prospects is if they'd pay his salary...he's not cheap. I see Billy Hamilton as our future center fielder and leadoff hitter, so I'd do everything possible to not trade him. Also, I'd be wary of Upton's health...tell the Doc to be extra thorough in the physical. Hopefully, it's just a 'change of scenery' situation and the D'Backs looking to shed salary. If it works out, it works out, but I wouldn't sell the farm for him.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The Reds don't have prospects like they did last year. Or the year before. There simply aren't "for sure" legit Major League starters in the system right now.

Billy Hamilton - Still has questions about his bat and his defensive ability.
Daniel Corcino - Some guys see him as a #3. Some guys see him as a #5.
Robert Stephenson - I doubt he is on the block at all (same for Hamilton for that matter), but he is in rookie ball.
Tony Cingrani - Scouts are still split as to whether he can even be a starter, much less a good one.
Didi Gregorius - Solid prospect, but nothing elite.
Henry Rodriguez - Not an ideal third baseman, hasn't played anywhere else this year. Always had questions about his defense at 2B.
Kyle Lotzkar - Long injury history, tailing performance in AA right now
JC Sulbaran - Very inconsistent.

There isn't a sure fire guy in there. Not one. You trade those types of guys for elite level talents if you can.

I agree with this. So in order to pull this off, the Reds would have to trade a lot of guys. Probably the only real way it could work is if Arizona was willing to to take Stubbs as part of the deal, with a few of these other guys. But I don't see any chance they'd do this deal without Hamilton.

I would think Stubbs/Hamilton/Rodriguez might get it done. You may have to throw in Corcino or Cingrani as well.