Who legitimately scares you in the NL?

[edabbs44]

A pet peeve of mine is that I continue to see the same complaints. Dusty's lineups. Dusty's bullpen choices. Cozart. Stubbs. Leadoff and cleanup hitters. Lack of lefty hitters, especially on the bench. And that these are all critical type deficiencies, the kinds that will absolutely sink this team in October.

Let's take a look at the NL contenders and some of their soft spots.

Washington: Team OBP is .001 better than Cincy's. Leadoff OBP is sub .300. OPS vs RHP is .014 better than Cincy. ERA is best in NL, slightly better than Cincy. They may lose Strasburg

Atlanta: ERA is 3.98, way off the pace. Scoring runs but OPS is slightly worse than Cincy's.

Pitt: Team OPS is .030 less than Cincy, same vs RHP. They are one spot better than Cincy in leadoff OBP, which is nothing to brag about and now have a rookie hitting there, fresh out of the minors. Pitching has been good, but still behind the Reds.

St. Louis: Biggest difference in Cincy's favor is the bullpen is about 1.60 runs behind in ERA. They do give me reason to pause as they have talent, especially at the dish.

SF: Strong pitching. Cincy has .030 edge in OPS, both overall and vs RHP. 11th in leadoff OBP. #5 hitter has a .701 OPS.

LA: Fading. 15th in the NL in OPS, .055 off Cincy's number. .688 OPS vs RHP. Right behind Cincy in ERA. We will see if Hanley makes a difference.

Now things can obviously change and I would love to see Cincy add some talent to the roster. Would be a solid boost. But even if things stayed as is, do we think that they wouldn't be one of the top choices to go to the WS, if not the top choice? Who is materially stronger than them top to bottom?

Looking around I see a lot of the same warts across the league. If Cincy ends up getting taken out by Washington, for example, are we going to blame it on Cozart/Stubbs even though the Nats have Steve Lombardozzi leading off for them?

Cozart, Stubbs, Dusty's lineups, etc. don't seem to be having the detrimental effect that many act like they are having. The team, overall, is quality and is playing great right now. That's what counts.

So the question is...who do you think the Reds are chasing? Who is the team that they have to better themselves to get in front of?

[savafan]

I feel you can never count out St. Louis. They somehow always seem to find a way to make a strong late season push.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by savafan

I feel you can never count out St. Louis. They somehow always seem to find a way to make a strong late season push.

Agreed, their bullpen has been leaky but the other pieces are there. Especially with the lineup. The 5 game cushion is definitely nice.

[fearofpopvol1]

If the Nats keep Strasburg around, I'd be scared of them in a short series. San Francisco, because of their pitching, could be scary, especially at home. Pirates still remain a threat because of their ability to come back in games. And St. Louis has some big bats, but their August will make or break them I believe.

[Tom Servo]

The Cardinals offense. And the Nationals because they steamrolled over us earlier in the year. I still don't think they're amazing or anything though. They are very good though.

That's it, really. I think we match up well with any NL teams.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

If the Nats keep Strasburg around, I'd be scared of them in a short series. San Francisco, because of their pitching, could be scary, especially at home. Pirates still remain a threat because of their ability to come back in games. And St. Louis has some big bats, but their August will make or break them I believe.

That's kind of my point. The Nats and SF are likely saying the same thing about us. Base upon the first hundredish games, Reds pitching is right at the top of the league.

And no one has Aroldis.

[Kc61]

The new wild card system makes it imperative to win the division. Otherwise, one game playoff.

So the only teams the Reds need to think about are the Pirates and the Cards. They both are serious competition and either one could edge the Reds out.

So I am concerned only about them.

[CySeymour]

I still feel the Cards have a huge win streak in them and will make a push for the playoffs.

[RedlegJake]

I kinda feel like the Cards and Pirates may be making their big push right now - with Votto out and all - yet the Reds are out playing them. Both Cards and Pirates are winning at an almost unsustainable rate yet the Reds are keeping pace or gaining ground. It's almost who gives first situation.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Who legitimately scares you in the NL?

This guy.



He's just so freaky looking. Scares the crap out of me. Right up there with Willie McGee. His mug could give you nightmares.

[dougdirt]

Injuries scare me. Otherwise, I feel confident we can hang with any team in the NL.

[11larkin11]

Originally Posted by Kc61

The new wild card system makes it imperative to win the division. Otherwise, one game playoff.

So the only teams the Reds need to think about are the Pirates and the Cards. They both are serious competition and either one could edge the Reds out.

So I am concerned only about them.

I agree, but I wouldn't say that't the only teams to worry about. The difference between the 1 and 2 seed is HUGE now. Not only do you get homefield advantage, but you get to face a WC team who just used their ace.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

I agree, but I wouldn't say that't the only teams to worry about. The difference between the 1 and 2 seed is HUGE now. Not only do you get homefield advantage, but you get to face a WC team who just used their ace.

They might not have used their ace.

[George Foster]

I don't want to play the Dodgers or Pirates (wildcard winner) in the 1st round. Time zone thing with the Dodgers and the Pirates will have that mojo thing going...20 years since the playoffs. Most casual fans will be pulling for them and the media as well.

When we make the playoffs...notice I said when, I want to play the Nats in the First round. Why? 1) same time zone, easy travel. 2) I think we would have the advantage with our 2010 experience...the Nats will have the "deer in the headlights look." Like we did in 2010.

[RedsManRick]

SF and Washington both have rotations that scare me. The Cardinals offense, if healthy, scares me. The Dodgers, if Hanley starts hitting, scare me. But year, point taken.