Pitching down the stretch

[corkedbat]

Below, I've lister arguably the top four starters for the Reds and those (barring major surprises) probably still in NL postseason contentions. Who do you think the Reds matchup with best in a short series and who worries you the most.

Also, it's apparent that Walt may (or may not) have flirted with acquiring a starter to bolster the top of the rotation before the deadline - manes like Garza from the Cubs, Masterson from the Indians, Shields from the Rays, Johnson from the Marlins and maybe even Lee from the Phils. Do you thinke its possible he could still acquire one of them or another starter before the end of the wiaver trade period at the end of this month?

Reds

Cueto (14-5/2.52)
Latos (10-3/3.94)
Bailey (9-7/3.85)
(or)
Arroyo (7-6/3.97)

Nationals

Strausburg (11-5/3.12)
Gonzalez (13-6/3.34)
Zimmerman (9-6/2.45)
(or)
Detwiler (6-5 3.02)

Braves

Hudson (11-4/3.48)
Hanson (12-5/4,29)
Sheets (3-1/1.29)
(or)
Malholm (9-7/3.75)

Pirates

Burnett (13-3/3.27)
Rodriguez (7-10/3.82)
McDonald (10-5/3.42)
(or)
Karstens (4-2/3.70)

Cardinals

Loshe (11-2/2.92)
Wainwright (9-10/4.03)
Lynn (13-4/3.40)
(or)
Westbrook (10-8/3.79)

Giants

Cain (10-4/2.82)
Baumgartner (12-6/3.03)
Vogelsong (9-5/2.38)
(or)
Zito (8-8/4.27)

Dodgers

Kershaw (9-6/2.39)
Capuano (10-7/3.33)
Billingsley (7-9/3.74)
(or)
Harang (7-6/3.75)

D-Backs

Miley (12-6/2.98)
Kennedy (10-9/4.15)
Cahill (9-9/3.75)
(or)
Saunders (5-8/3.57)

[Big Klu]

Homer is 9-6.

[Redsfan320]

Should be "Rodriguez" (Wandy) instead of "Hernandez" for the Pirates. The stats are right, just not the name.

I think the Braves and the D-backs look like the easiest to beat from this perspective, while the Nats and Giants could be tough.

320

[Scrap Irony]

Washington, IMO, is the team to beat.

Their starting staff is just as good (better?) than our own. They're just now getting completely healthy and have above average bats available at every position. While an OF of Werth, Morse, and Harper in the OF won't win many Gold Gloves, it's offensively superior to anything the Reds can put out there. Add LaRoche and Zimmerman, and the offense is outstanding.

The Nat 'pen is more than solid (though not as good as Cincinnati's), with Storen and company, not to mention either Detweiler or Zimmerman ready as a starter-turned-high-leverage-bullpen-arm ready for whatever's needed.

Having said that, the upside of Latos, Cueto, and Bailey give me hope. Latos seems like a big-game pitcher. Cueto's nails, and, IMO, among the best the National League has to offer. If Bailey takes that October step up that his ceiling suggests is possible, the Reds-- with a pen that's shut-down good from the seventh on, can cause some serious problems.

The concern, obviously, is the offense. I think Ludwick can do it. Rolen's found some sort of Way-Back machine-- perhaps he can keep it up in the playoffs. Votto is Votto. Phillips should be okay. The key, IMO, is either Bruce or Stubbs. If one of them gets super hot, Cincinnati can play with anyone.

But, IMO, it'll take a Bruce or Stubbs (maybe Frazier or Hesiey as well) getting hot to win the NL Pennant.

[PuffyPig]

Once you get to the playoffs, it's a crap shoot.

Sure the better teams have a better chance, but it's so small a difference, that in the end the randomness of baseball will ultimately determine who will win.

The playoffs over time has taught us that. Especially today, the difference between the best teams in the playoffs and the worse is very small.

[Vottomatic]

Agree. The 1990 A's were better on paper than the Reds. But the Reds swept them. Anything can happen. Just get there.

[dougdirt]

I know it is easy to bring up the 1990 Reds/A's, but honestly, who was the last team that was a clear favorite going into the playoffs that even won the World Series?

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I know it is easy to bring up the 1990 Reds/A's, but honestly, who was the last team that was a clear favorite going into the playoffs that even won the World Series?

2009 Yankees were pretty dominant. I can't remember anyone giving them much of a battle in the playoffs.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by Cedric

2009 Yankees were pretty dominant. I can't remember anyone giving them much of a battle in the playoffs.

True. Also, probably the 2007 Red Sox.

Edit: Actually, I'm not even sure that Sox team won the division. So maybe not.

[cincrazy]

The 2007 Red Sox did win their division. And won 96 games. Maybe not clear cut "dominant," but I think they were certainly favored.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Washington, IMO, is the team to beat.

Their starting staff is just as good (better?) than our own. They're just now getting completely healthy and have above average bats available at every position. While an OF of Werth, Morse, and Harper in the OF won't win many Gold Gloves, it's offensively superior to anything the Reds can put out there. Add LaRoche and Zimmerman, and the offense is outstanding.

The Nat 'pen is more than solid (though not as good as Cincinnati's), with Storen and company, not to mention either Detweiler or Zimmerman ready as a starter-turned-high-leverage-bullpen-arm ready for whatever's needed.

Having said that, the upside of Latos, Cueto, and Bailey give me hope. Latos seems like a big-game pitcher. Cueto's nails, and, IMO, among the best the National League has to offer. If Bailey takes that October step up that his ceiling suggests is possible, the Reds-- with a pen that's shut-down good from the seventh on, can cause some serious problems.

The concern, obviously, is the offense. I think Ludwick can do it. Rolen's found some sort of Way-Back machine-- perhaps he can keep it up in the playoffs. Votto is Votto. Phillips should be okay. The key, IMO, is either Bruce or Stubbs. If one of them gets super hot, Cincinnati can play with anyone.

But, IMO, it'll take a Bruce or Stubbs (maybe Frazier or Hesiey as well) getting hot to win the NL Pennant.

It should be noted, however, that the Nats will be shutting down Strasburg at somewhere between 160-180 innings, and they won't be giving him time off to delay the shutdown. So Strasburg won't likely be around to pitch in the playoffs, and if he's not, that obviously changes the complexion of their rotation.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

The 2007 Red Sox did win their division. And won 96 games. Maybe not clear cut "dominant," but I think they were certainly favored.

Exactly. So twice in the last 6 years the favorite has won. Says how much of a crap shoot it is.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Also, it's apparent that Walt may (or may not) have flirted with acquiring a starter to bolster the top of the rotation before the deadline - manes like Garza from the Cubs, Masterson from the Indians, Shields from the Rays, Johnson from the Marlins and maybe even Lee from the Phils. Do you thinke its possible he could still acquire one of them or another starter before the end of the wiaver trade period at the end of this month?

No I don't. Obviously, the pitchers have to make it through waivers. And they'd make it through waivers for three reasons - 1. they're not any good 2. they're too expensive (Cliff Lee) 3. or possibly expensive, but their numbers look to be declining, age setting in (again Cliff Lee).

I'm sure Walt would have loved to acquire Cliff Lee. But that contract is wayyyyyy beyond anything the Reds can add at this point. If King Felix went through waivers, some other team ahead of the Reds would certainly jump on that. I don't see Garza or Shields even making it to the Reds through waivers.

Don't see it happening.