Sunday 8/5/2012 Minor-League Updates

[mace]

Not sure why, but Masset is listed in the box score as the starter for Louisville, and he evidently never threw a pitch. Sounds like he was a very late scratch or some such.

So Reineke went 7 strong innings and Hoover got the save in the Bats' 4-2 victory. Phipps, Puckett and Costanzo (3-4) homered. Soto was 2-3 with a 2B.

[mace]

Hamilton went 1-5 but stole 3 bases today in Pensacola's 7-4 loss. Vidal, Greene and Andrew Means all had 2 hits. Lotzkar: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 1 K.

[mace]

After a pair of triples last night, Juan Perez ripped a HR and double today. Nick O'Shea had a HR and 2 singles. Dayton rolled, 11-5. James Allen didn't have his most impressive outing, but he got the W and struck out 7 in 5 IP. Michael Dennhardt threw 2 more scoreless frames.

[mace]

Jesse Winker banged out two doubles and a single today as Billings won, 8-4. Seth Mejias-Brean extended his hitting streak to 21 games. Brandon Dailey posted a couple more hits. And Carlos Sanchez homered. Five pitchers split the action, with Joel Bender going the longest at 3.1 innings, striking out 5.

[mace]

Jose Williams, the starter tonight for the AZL Reds, came into the game with a 7.77 ERA. He has pitched 5 innings, and that's all I'm allowed to say.

The Baby Reds lead 4-0. Humberto Valor, who had four hits last night, has two more tonight.

[mace]

Bakersfield trails 3-1 after seven. That's what happens when Steve Selsky doesn't get a hit.

Josh Smith: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Not sure why, but Masset is listed in the box score as the starter for Louisville, and he evidently never threw a pitch. Sounds like he was a very late scratch or some such.

So Reineke went 7 strong innings and Hoover got the save in the Bats' 4-2 victory. Phipps, Puckett and Costanzo (3-4) homered. Soto was 2-3 with a 2B.

Masset was warming up, rain came and delayed the game for 85 minutes. He never started, but was on the line up card. So technically, he was replaced.

[mace]

All right, Williams gave up a hit in the sixth: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

He's a 6-5, 21-year-old (yes, old for the league) righthander who threw 21 innings last year in the DSL.

[mace]

A 2-run HR by Juan Duran has tied it for Bakersfield, 3-3 in the eighth.

[Scrap Irony]

Davd Vidal's last 10 games: .342/ .375/ .658/ 1.033
After a horrid start, gets his AA numbers to the following: .246/ .302/ .413/ .715

K'ing less, but still far too much. Decent patience. He's 22.



Juan Perez, my pick for 2012 Breakout/ Sleeper of the Year, has finally woken up. A bit.
Last 10: .333/ .378/ .615/ .993
Second half: .301/ .359/ .518/ .877
Season: .262/ .344/ .408/ .752

Perez is a LH SS (though most project him as a 2B going forward). He's got 22 SB, but has been caught 10 times. Still just 20 and in Low-A, so he's a bit ahead of schedule. 44 BBs to 67 Ks show plate discipline.



Should Jesse Winker finish out the year with his current numbers, the closest 18-year-old comps from the Pioneer League over the past 20 years or so are:
2007 Caleb Gindl
2004 Billy Butler
2004 Chris Nelson
2002 James Loney
2000 Dave Krynzel
1998 Austin Kearns

All but one have played in the majors, but only one is a star. His year isn't quite as good as the season Prince Fielder enjoyed, but, so far, it's within shouting distance of second. Butler, fwiw, is closest overall, IMO, though his power numbers were better. Very few Pioneer League 18-year-olds. Even fewer have any success at all.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Should Jesse Winker finish out the year with his current numbers, the closest 18-year-old comps from the Pioneer League over the past decade or so are:
2007 Caleb Gindl
2004 Billy Butler
2004 Chris Nelson

I went ahead an expanded it to just teenagers in the Pioneer League and went back to 1995. For comparisons I used BB rate, K rate and IsoP.

His close comps were:
JD Closser
Alex Garcia
Tom Carrow

Everyone else, including your comps, were just to far away for me. Chris Nelson had 20 walks and 42 strikeouts. Billy Butler had a .220 IsoP (Winker is just at .120). Gindl had just 20 walks and 38 strikeouts while also showing a .208 IsoP.

The problem is with trying to find comps for guys like Winker is that there simply aren't many guys his age to begin with at this level, so the pickings are slim to even look for. Then you get into that he has a pretty unique skillset for his age and it makes it even tougher. Lots of guys at 18 have had some power, but not many come into pro ball with his kind of discipline.

[Scrap Irony]

Interesting list, doug. Neither Garcia nor Carrow last three years in professional baseball. Closser's been banging around for almost 15 and hasn't done much of anything.

I'm guessing Winker grabs a bit more power the rest of the way. (It's already happening, in fact. He's slugged .500 since the last day of Junewith an IsoP of around .150.) His scouting report commented on his plus power, and, though it hasn't materialized quite as well as scouts thought, the rest of his game is a sabremetrician's wet dream.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Interesting list, doug. Neither Garcia nor Carrow last three years in professional baseball. Closser's been banging around for almost 15 and hasn't done much of anything.

I'm guessing Winker grabs a bit more power the rest of the way. (It's already happening, in fact. He's slugged .500 since the last day of Junewith an IsoP of around .150.) His scouting report commented on his plus power, and, though it hasn't materialized quite as well as scouts thought, the rest of his game is a sabremetrician's wet dream.

Oh yeah. As I noted, the pool of guys his age with his skillset simply is too limited to find a decent group of statistical comps. I went back to 1995 and only three guys were even close. Hopefully that power develops, because he could be a very strong hitter if it does.

[Superdude]

I feel like it's easy to be overcritical of Winker just because he's putting up numbers that actually warrant evaluating. Most statistics from guys his age, Rahier for example, are so bad they just get written off due to expected improvement. It'll be interesting to see the post season scouting reports, but I think some people are reading too much into the lack of power.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I feel like it's easy to be overcritical of Winker just because he's putting up numbers that actually warrant evaluating. Most statistics from guys his age, Rahier for example, are so bad they just get written off due to expected improvement. It'll be interesting to see the post season scouting reports, but I think some people are reading too much into the lack of power.

Agreed. Perhaps most importantly, look at what Winker is doing compared to every other 2012 HS draftee. That probably puts it into the best perspective.