Bucs the new Cards?

[Sir Luke]

Perhaps it's merely the fact the Cards are a minuscule threat to the Big Red Machine's post-season plans, coupled with the fact that the Pirates are second in the division, put playing the Bucs is starting to feel like playing the Cards of previous seasons. Granted, the Pirates have not claimed a title in quite a while, but the squad compiled of young studs like McCutchen and vets from the island of misfit toys such as Burnett have forged a force to be reckoned with. And yes, this was always a rivalry, but until as of late it was never the blood sport and call to arms that we were so enthralled by as we contended with the Bucs in years past. Now, we are not to the Yadier and BP, bench clear brawl stage, but never the less, the stage is set. Thanks to Chapman's 101 MPH fastball to McCutchen's shoulder area, fuel has been added to the fire. Tempura were hardly present between the two clubs prior to the incedent. Perhaps this is the spark we need. Yes, we are winning a tremendous percentage of games, since the ASG especially, but will this be the jolt to let us blow the Bucs out of the water or will they fall apart all on their own?

[HometownHero]

Originally Posted by Sir Luke

Perhaps it's merely the fact the Cards are a minuscule threat to the Big Red Machine's post-season plans

Oh how I wish that was true, but the Cards are 6 back and have a 16-29 record in games decided by 2 or less runs. Their fluke record in that situation on the low side and ours and Pittsburgh on the high side has flipped the standings.

BR's Pythagorean W-L:
66-43 for Cards
62-47 for Reds
59-49 for Pirates

[mroby85]

Originally Posted by WTFMang

Oh how I wish that was true, but the Cards are 6 back and have a 16-29 record in games decided by 2 or less runs. Their fluke record in that situation on the low side and ours and Pittsburgh on the high side has flipped the standings.

BR's Pythagorean W-L:
66-43 for Cards
62-47 for Reds
59-49 for Pirates

I don't think everything can be measured in stats like that. There is a reason some teams win a lot of 2 run games, and a lot of teams don't. Thats what seperates playmakers from average players.

[Larkin88]

Originally Posted by mroby85

I don't think everything can be measured in stats like that. There is a reason some teams win a lot of 2 run games, and a lot of teams don't. Thats what seperates playmakers from average players.

I agree that run differential and pythag are imperfect, but they're decent KPI's to consider in the proper context. I guess my main issue with it being totally objective is that people always say a team's record tends to "regress" or "normalize" to their run differential, but it often seems to work out that a team's run differential is the thing that normalizes to their record. (i.e. "the other way around")

I do not believe the Cards are/would be/should be a 66 win team right now in spite of their run differential and think by end of year, that differential will be more reflective of the record they end up with. Their run differential since May, for instance, has been rather unspectacular when you consider their position atop the NL for the year in that category.

That said, I am very much concerned with the Cardinals and Pirates still. Almost moreso the Cardinals than the Pirates. Can many true fans of the game look at the lineup they've assembled in Saint Louis and tell me that there are glaring holes there? Their biggest weakness has been an inconsistent bullpen, which has contributed to so many late or close losses. I don't think their record in that sense is all "fluke" necessarily, but even that has looked a lot better lately.

The Cards have played pretty well without Berkman for a lot of the season, so I don't see that being a kiss of death. Wainwright continues to improve and Garcia should return soon as well, giving them some options to further strengthen the bullpen assuming Kelly is bumped from the rotation.

Beyond the obvious hope that the Reds just take care of business the rest of the way, I sincerely hope the Pirates make the playoffs over the Cardinals if it does become an either/or scenario down the stretch. I do think this is a special Reds team this year, but I'm not quite comfortable yet being complacent with our lead over either of the other NL Central foes. And I don't know a team in baseball who would want to face the defending World Champs to open up the playoffs.

[Kingspoint]

Originally Posted by WTFMang

Oh how I wish that was true, but the Cards are 6 back and have a 16-29 record in games decided by 2 or less runs. Their fluke record in that situation on the low side and ours and Pittsburgh on the high side has flipped the standings.

Last time I looked, they play nine innings in the Majors. There's no fluke involved.

[Kingspoint]

The Bucs can never be the Cards as the Cards do not have a history of 18 straight losing seasons. The towns are opposites of each other in the Sports world, baseball world, and money spent on winning. For the Pirates, it has rarely been about winning, and always about keeping the franchise afloat.

Compare the Pirates to the Bengals and we have a discussion.