RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion Remaining games

 08-20-2012, 05:08 PM #1 Vottomatic All work and no play.....     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Lebanon Posts: 7,067 Remaining games Stretch run math The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining. The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds? If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64): Pirates must go 31-10 to tie Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68): Pirates must go 27-14 to tie Cards must go 29-12 to tie If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73): Pirates must go 22-19 to tie Cards must go 24-17 to tie __________________ "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic. "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
08-20-2012, 05:24 PM   #2
Kc61
Member

Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,141
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vottomatic Stretch run math The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining. The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds? If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64): Pirates must go 31-10 to tie Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68): Pirates must go 27-14 to tie Cards must go 29-12 to tie If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73): Pirates must go 22-19 to tie Cards must go 24-17 to tie
Nice breakdown.

On the Bucs, here are the questions.

1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September.

2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season).

3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds?

One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.

Last edited by Kc61; 08-20-2012 at 05:35 PM.

 08-20-2012, 05:25 PM #3 Reds Fanatic Member     Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Piqua, OH Posts: 16,475 Re: Remaining games Looking at the remaining schedules of the 3 teams the Cardinals appear to have the toughest schedule remaining. They not only play the Reds 6 more times and Pirates 3 more times they still have 7 games left against the Nationals and a west coast road trip in mid September including 4 games in LA. The Reds have the next toughest schedule left. 6 games left against both the Cardinals and Pirates. Also 3 games against the Dodgers at home and 3 games left against Arizona who is still in the wild card race and 7 against the Phillies starting tonight. The Pirates appear to have the easiest remaining schedule as they still play the Cubs 7 times and the Astros 6 times. The Pirates still have 6 games left against the Reds, 3 games against the Cardinals and finish with 3 games against the Braves Last edited by Reds Fanatic; 08-20-2012 at 05:31 PM.
 08-20-2012, 05:40 PM #4 cincrazy Member     Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: South Vienna, OH Posts: 4,250 Re: Remaining games The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.
 08-20-2012, 05:43 PM #5 WildcatFan Member     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Lexington, KY Posts: 1,069 Re: Remaining games I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train. __________________ "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski 2013 Attendance Record 2-1 (4/3 Angels 5-4) (5/24 Cubs 7-4) (6/5 Rockies 4-12) (8/23 Brewers 4-6)
08-20-2012, 05:44 PM   #6
Kc61
Member

Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 12,141
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cincrazy The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.
Yes, there are variables by pitchers, etc. On the other hand, Mets could play a AAA squad for that series, it's very late in September. They could shut down guys with slight injuries. Hard to tell, which is why I hedged as to how to classify it.

Right now, though, I'm hoping our old friend Volquez helps the Reds out tonight. Pirates could be in pitching disarray after yesterday. And Pads recently gave Bucs a tough time in Pitt.

Would like to see Pads take two of three over the Bucs, taking advantage of home field and the Pirates overhang from the nineteen inning game.

08-20-2012, 06:21 PM   #7
jhu1321
Member

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 410
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by WildcatFan I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train.

YES!

08-20-2012, 06:57 PM   #8
Big Klu
Member

Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cambridge, OH
Posts: 16,669
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Kc61 Nice breakdown. Not worried about the Cards. On the Bucs, here are the questions. 1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September. 2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season). 3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds? One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.

I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor.

I'm holding RZ to that.

08-20-2012, 07:13 PM   #9
Homer Bailey
I'm back... and forth

Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,699
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Big Klu I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor. I'm holding RZ to that.
If the Cards were 2 games back of the Reds, would anyone even really be considering the Pirates? It's the fact that their the closest of any team that makes them seem threatening, but in reality, they are pretty darn far back, and not playing great baseball. Obviously the division race isn't over, but the Reds are in a great, great position.

08-20-2012, 07:23 PM   #10
_Sir_Charles_
Flash the leather!

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 7,314
Re: Remaining games

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vottomatic Stretch run math The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining. The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds? If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64): Pirates must go 31-10 to tie Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68): Pirates must go 27-14 to tie Cards must go 29-12 to tie If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73): Pirates must go 22-19 to tie Cards must go 24-17 to tie
How does the math look if the Reds go 40-0 the rest of the way? :O)
__________________
Pitching and defense...anything else is gravy. Mmmm...gravy.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home RedsZone     The Old Red Guard     Game Threads Baseball     The Sun Deck         Game Threads     Minor League Talk Miscellaneous     Introductions and Site Feedback         RedsZone Pictures     Non-Sports Chatter         Politics and Religion Talk         Arts & Entertainment     The Tavern         Fantasy Island Archives     The Archives     Predictions Archives

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:51 AM.

 -- RedsZone -- Black RedsZone -- Reds Away Contact Us - RedsZone.com - Archive - Top