Ludwick and Frazier

[Kc61]

I may be overstating it, but these two guys arguably saved the Reds season. They deserve enormous credit.

I'm on record that Chapman is the team's MVP. But these two guys as a tandem have an argument.

This team lost Votto in July. The team has played better and HIT better since the best hitter in the league, possibly in MLB, has been out.

Frazier now has a .913 OPS. 18 homers. But even better, he has a .352 OBP. This is the team's weak spot, OBP. .352 is pretty darn good for a power hitter like Todd.

Ludwick has been the Greg Vaughn type, if not quite so prolific with the long ball. Has become a big presence in the lineup. .911 OPS, 25 homers. And again, in the difficult OBP area, he's at .341. Very, very solid.

Even more -- these two guys have natural roles for the future. Frazier at third. He's not Rolen defensively but he can be average or better as he improves.

Ludwick playing in the NL Central and GABP can be the clean up hitter the Reds have sought. And since he's not a big star, his next contract shouldn't destroy the payroll.

Add Votto back in, the team's lineup is looking much better. Maybe one more OBP guy to share CF with Stubbs, lineup would look terrific.

Sorry for the optimism. Thought these two guys deserved a thread.

[bellhead]

KC61,

Bringing the noise,

I cannot wait to see Votto back with Ludwick hitting behind him. Think of how good his numbers will be when someone has to pitch to him.

[Tom Servo]

Love 'em.

[MikeThierry]

I was sort of thinking about the Reds success the other day. Do you think adding Votto back might actually decrease the offensive output? No question it will be good for you guys to have him back. However, do you think there is a psychological effect on guys like Ludwick or Frazier? Since Votto was out, Ludwick and Fraizer HAD to step up their play, something they didn't have to do when they had that offensive monster in the lineup. These guys are playing out of their mind right now but why weren't they when Votto was in there? I've seen it here in St. Louis at times when Pujols was out. Guys would step in his absence but would fail again once he came back. I think it's kind of goofy that someone like Ludwick would struggle all season but now becomes a world beater when Votto's gone.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I was sort of thinking about the Reds success the other day. Do you think adding Votto back might actually decrease the offensive output? No question it will be good for you guys to have him back. However, do you think there is a psychological effect on guys like Ludwick or Frazier? Since Votto was out, Ludwick and Fraizer HAD to step up their play, something they didn't have to do when they had that offensive monster in the lineup. These guys are playing out of their mind right now but why weren't they when Votto was in there? I've seen it here in St. Louis at times when Pujols was out. Guys would step in his absence but would fail again once he came back. I think it's kind of goofy that someone like Ludwick would struggle all season but now becomes a world beater when Votto's gone.

Frazier was hitting before Votto was injured, and has just gotten better with his increased playing time. Ludwick started hitting more than just the occasional HR in June after an April/May where he only played sparingly. He has said several times that he feels he's at his best when he knows he'll be in the lineup everyday.

I'm not saying there won't be a potential drop-off with Votto's return, but I think you are underestimating both players greatly.

[redsfan30]

For me, Ryan Ludwick is the MVP of this team...even over Aroldis Chapman.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I was sort of thinking about the Reds success the other day. Do you think adding Votto back might actually decrease the offensive output? No question it will be good for you guys to have him back. However, do you think there is a psychological effect on guys like Ludwick or Frazier? Since Votto was out, Ludwick and Fraizer HAD to step up their play, something they didn't have to do when they had that offensive monster in the lineup. These guys are playing out of their mind right now but why weren't they when Votto was in there? I've seen it here in St. Louis at times when Pujols was out. Guys would step in his absence but would fail again once he came back. I think it's kind of goofy that someone like Ludwick would struggle all season but now becomes a world beater when Votto's gone.

Randomness would explain most of this.

The Reds likely won't hit a whole lot better once Votto comes back, becuase Frazier and Ludwick will not continue hitting at a 1.000 OPS clip which they have done for awhile.

If Votto doersn't come back, expect the Reds offense to regress as players start geting back to their norms.

Much like the Cards offense in April/May. Did you really believe that guys like Beltran, Molina, Furcal, Jay etc would continue to hit OPS in the high .900's? Thos eplayers have continued to produce, but their OPS has slowly declined to more manageable numbers. The Cards may continue to lead the NL in runs scored, but the Redfs have outscored them since the end of May.


Guys stepping up and failing is more random then anything else.

Frazier and Ludwick might keep their OPS close to .900, but they aren't going to keep hitting at a 1.000 level.

Ludwick's hitting has improved as the season has gone on. I think that Petco Park was in his head. I don't think it had anything to do with Votto's absence. It might also reflect the fact that the Reds schedule was agaisnt better pitching in the first 2 months, and softer pitching thereafter. We've faced alot of bad pitching since the all star break. A healthy Votto would have gone wild.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Frazier was hitting before Votto was injured, and has just gotten better with his increased playing time. Ludwick started hitting more than just the occasional HR in June after an April/May where he only played sparingly. He has said several times that he feels he's at his best when he knows he'll be in the lineup everyday.

I'm not saying there won't be a potential drop-off with Votto's return, but I think you are underestimating both players greatly.

I liked the Ludwick signing and was one of the few advocates here when he was signed by the Reds, but there is a reason why the Cardinals traded him for Jake Westbrook. He's a nice player.

Frazier is legit, I'll give you that but he wasn't a consistent hitter like he is now.

In May his batting line was .246 .288 .565 .853
In June his batting line was .250 .337 .444 .782

As you pointed out, playing time has increased so maybe that was a factor. That said, he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball before July.

[Cooper]

I think Ludwick's and Rolen's low babip had more of an impact of matters then anything. They were hitting the ball hard and not getting the full benefits of doing so. IIRC, in late May they both had a babip in the .220's -their LD rates were solid. My concern was that with this being the case, i did wonder if they weren't done. Players are beginning to slip back to historical norms (pre-steroid) and age 32 used to be a cliff for a lot of players.

Voros's discovery has made it a lot easier to know if a player is going to continue their spiral or make a case for continued playing time.

[MikeThierry]

I'm not trying to downgrad Ludwick and Frazier. Both are having amazing seasons and I wouldn't be shocked if the offense continues when Votto comes back. I just find it odd that nothing was happening before Votto got out and now you can't get them out.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I'm not trying to downgrad Ludwick and Frazier. Both are having amazing seasons and I wouldn't be shocked if the offense continues when Votto comes back. I just find it odd that nothing was happening before Votto got out and now you can't get them out.

I think it's a psychological thing, but I don't think it's the reason you mentioned but simply confidence. Ludwick and Frazier both were not completely mainstays in the order when Votto got hurt, but both solidified themselves after he went down simply because they got an extended opportunity to do so.

I would imagine that when Votto gets back, that performance is likely to carry over somewhat, although Frazier will be back to not playing every day.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I think it's a psychological thing, but I don't think it's the reason you mentioned but simply confidence. Ludwick and Frazier both were not completely mainstays in the order when Votto got hurt, but both solidified themselves after he went down simply because they got an extended opportunity to do so.

I would imagine that when Votto gets back, that performance is likely to carry over somewhat, although Frazier will be back to not playing every day.

That could be it as well. I feel sometimes people overlook the psychological factor when evaluating a players performance. By no means should psychological factors be the main thrust of an argument though but it can be a factor.

[Kc61]

Reds will need Votto, Ludwick, Rolen, and Frazier because there could be as many as three DH games in the World Series.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

As you pointed out, playing time has increased so maybe that was a factor. That said, he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball before July.

Pre All-Star Break .901
Post All-Star Break .925

[RedsManRick]

Agreed, KC. If you look at just raw offensive production, they're #2 and #3 on the team after Votto and ahead of Bruce and Phillips despite having 100+ fewer PA. They have been lifesavers.

Frazier is probably playing a bit over his head, as his inflated BABIP indicates but I'd happily take .260/.325/.475 from 3rd base. And of course, there's a possibility that he's just going to continue to the sting the ball -- a 22.6 LD% would support a higher than average BABIP.

As for Ludwick, we should take his San Diego years with a giant grain of salt, just like we'd do from somebody in Coors. His performance is pretty much in line with what he did in St. Louis. From 2007-2009, in nearly 1500 PA, he hit .280/.350/.512. So far this year he's hit .270/.341/.571. Yes, the power is inflated a bit, but looking at his splits, lucka nd GABP seem to be the easy explanations.

Home: .254/.332/.599, .345 ISO, .254 BABIP
Raod: .288/.351/.538, .250 ISO, .305 BABIP

GABP turns would be doubles in to a combination of HRs and outs, raising ISO and lowering BABIP.

In any event, I see no reason to think Ludwick shouldn't continue to put up very solid numbers, though I would try to just pick up next year's option and worry about 2014 if he's still producing this time next year.