8/24/12 - Reds vs Cards

[Reds Fanatic]

Bruce flies out to left. 2 outs.

[George Foster]

Originally Posted by Kc61

You can run all the correlations you want.

But nobody, not even you, knows how the Pirates or Cards will be playing over the next weeks. It's a very long season and teams go hot and cold.

A critical element of this is the nature of the opposition. So that's what I tend to look at.

Particularly this year when there are two doormat teams in the Central. Which teams face the Astros and Cubs the most is important. Those teams lose so often.

So we disagree, but I have always focused on schedule in looking to possible future results and will continue to do so. It doesn't mean it works every time, they have to play the games.

But if the Cards can prevail given their schedule, they will have climbed a huge hill.

I was thinking the same thing. They still have a West coast road trip with the Padres and Dodgers. If they do it....hats off.

[OldXOhio]

I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus

No, I don't know. But I do know that the talent and ability of the teams is the more important factor first and foremost. So I'm not going to concern myself too with with the schedule when I feel St. Louis is flat out a better team than Pittsburgh. And that's becoming more and more clear by the week.

I think the Cards are better than the Pirates too. But there is another team on the field too. Sometimes it's the Cubs or Astros. Sometimes it's the Nationals, Reds, Dodgers or Pirates.

I think the identity of that other team is important. The opposition is half the game.

[Tom Servo]

Tying run coming up...

[Reds Fanatic]

Frazier lines a single to left.

[powersackers]

Tease us?

[Tom Servo]

Nope. We're still bad.


Tomorrow...

[Reds Fanatic]

Rolen strikes out swinging. Reds lose 8-5.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I think the identity of that other team is important. The opposition is half the game.

It's not half the game over a larger sample though. Or at least it's not necessarily half of the equation. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted because in this case, the difference between the winning expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is probably much larger than the average of the teams they're facing over the last 35 games.

[George Foster]

Originally Posted by OldXOhio

I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL

We would feel the same way if the situations were reversed...given the way this game went.

[OldXOhio]

"Statement"....5th time

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by OldXOhio

I've counted 4x now that Hrabosky has called this a "statement win" for STL

I'm pretty sure I'd have found that screwdriver Raisor was talking about earlier and stuck it in my ear a long time ago if I were forced to listen to the STL feed.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus

It's not half the game over a larger sample though. If you did probability, which is the best measure of predictive value, you'd find the differences in competition are smaller over a larger sample. Thus the probability of winning 'x' games is goin to rest a lot more on the actual team being predicted.

In other words, the Pythagorean expectation of the Pirates and Cardinals is a lot larger than the average differences in future competition they'd be facing.

The sample I've been focused on is about five or six weeks. I haven't done probability. I'm simply looking at the schedule.

Need Leake and Bailey to come through, get at least one win.

[OldXOhio]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

I'm pretty sure I'd have found that screwdriver Raisor was talking about earlier and stuck it in my ear a long time ago if I were forced to listen to the STL feed.

Forced is correct. Reds and MLB feeds blacked out here.