Baseball America: California League Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2614137.html

Billy Hamilton heads the circuit at #1.
Tony Cingrani came in at #11.

Neither scouting report says much that we didn't already know about these two guys, who have been the two most talked about guys just about all year from our system.

[Benihana]

Somewhat surprised that they have three (if you read the article includes Reed) pitching prospects listed ahead of Cingrani. For a guy who rocketed to the majors and dominated every level along the way (including the majors), you'd think he'd be one of the top 3 pitching prospects in a High A league.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Somewhat surprised that they have three (if you read the article includes Reed) pitching prospects listed ahead of Cingrani. For a guy who rocketed to the majors and dominated every level along the way (including the majors), you'd think he'd be one of the top 3 pitching prospects in a High A league.

He's basically a one-pitch (fastball) pitcher, and while that one pitch is dominating, it's more of a deception pitch rather than an overwhelming fireball. Once major league hitters see his delivery often enough, they are going to figure out how to hit his low 90s fastball no matter how well he hides the ball, and once they can hit his fastball, he has nothing else to offer.

Cingrani certainly has a chance to be a solid MLB pitcher, but I have my doubts that success will come as a starter.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

He's basically a one-pitch (fastball) pitcher, and while that one pitch is dominating, it's more of a deception pitch rather than an overwhelming fireball. Once major league hitters see his delivery often enough, they are going to figure out how to hit his low 90s fastball no matter how well he hides the ball, and once they can hit his fastball, he has nothing else to offer.

Cingrani certainly has a chance to be a solid MLB pitcher, but I have my doubts that success will come as a starter.

I don't know if that is entirely true. Dan Haren throws some type of fastball (be it a 2 seamer, sinker or cutter) 93% of the time in the mid to high 80's. Certainly no top of the rotation guy at this point, but successful. Tim Hudson throws his combo of fastballs 89% of the time in that high 80's range. He was pretty good this season.

There are of course examples too where it doesn't work.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't know if that is entirely true. Dan Haren throws some type of fastball (be it a 2 seamer, sinker or cutter) 93% of the time in the mid to high 80's. Certainly no top of the rotation guy at this point, but successful. Tim Hudson throws his combo of fastballs 89% of the time in that high 80's range. He was pretty good this season.

There are of course examples too where it doesn't work.

I'm not saying there is no chance he will pan out as a starter. He very well might. I'm just saying his OUTSTANDING statistical season is misleading, and that he is not the kind of prospect those numbers would indicate.

IMO, he is a good prospect, not a great one, despite putting up a statistically great season. Clearly, California league managers feel the same way. They felt he was a good enough prospect to make the list but not good enough to make the top 10, despite putting up outrageous numbers during his time in the league.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I'm not saying there is no chance he will pan out as a starter. He very well might. I'm just saying his OUTSTANDING statistical season is misleading, and that he is not the kind of prospect those numbers would indicate.

IMO, he is a good prospect, not a great one, despite putting up a statistically great season. Clearly, California league managers feel the same way. They felt he was a good enough prospect to make the list but not good enough to make the top 10, despite putting up outrageous numbers during his time in the league.

Cingrani was one of about four starting pitchers who made BA's starting Minor League All Star team. He has rocketed through the Reds system, actually made it to the majors already, and I think placing him 11th in the California League is ridiculous.

Reds aren't getting the appropriate respect in some of these polls IMO.

Anyone else from Bakersfield who should have been included in the top twenty? Must be somebody.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Reds aren't getting the appropriate respect in some of these polls IMO.

Anyone else from Bakersfield who should have been included in the top twenty? Must be somebody.

I thought there was a chance that Chad Rogers might have gotten in at the back end of the list.

With Cingrani, I know that everyone thinks I am the low man on him, but I probably would have guessed he would be a little higher than he was just based on past lists, but #11 doesn't shock me and it probably means he is a back end of the Top 100 guy.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I'm not saying there is no chance he will pan out as a starter. He very well might. I'm just saying his OUTSTANDING statistical season is misleading, and that he is not the kind of prospect those numbers would indicate.

IMO, he is a good prospect, not a great one, despite putting up a statistically great season. Clearly, California league managers feel the same way. They felt he was a good enough prospect to make the list but not good enough to make the top 10, despite putting up outrageous numbers during his time in the league.

I agree there. Right now, I don't feel comfortable saying it is likely that Cingrani is anything more than a #4 type of starter or a good 7th inning reliever or ok set up man. But, there is room for growth in both of those because he does have an outstanding fastball (one of the best I have seen from a Reds prospect in fact, despite the velocity being 89-92 as a starter) and workings of decent offspeed stuff.

[holster10]

Obviously, the Reds are high enough on
Cingrani to promote him from AA, which surprised me.

I'd like to see a LHP in the Reds rotation at some point next season and I hope he continues to develop as a starter.

[dougdirt]

In the chat, the guy who did this list doesn't think Cingrani is a Top 100 guy. He doesn't have final say on the Top 100 though, but he didn't even list him as "in the conversation".

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't know if that is entirely true. Dan Haren throws some type of fastball (be it a 2 seamer, sinker or cutter) 93% of the time in the mid to high 80's. Certainly no top of the rotation guy at this point, but successful. Tim Hudson throws his combo of fastballs 89% of the time in that high 80's range. He was pretty good this season.

There are of course examples too where it doesn't work.

I'll take that out of him any day of the week...

And for him to not be in a top 100 list is absurd... A top 100 list to me is players who are going to play in the majors and have a 5 to 10 year career. Right now Cingrani is going to be in the majors within 2 years and will play for a while either as a setup guy or a 3/4 starter....