Reds Arb Eligibles

[mdccclxix]

Of course, this has only been looking at the 2013 budget. Who knows exactly what 2014 is shaping up to. Arroyo's off the books. The TV contract enters in. Maybe they resign Arroyo even. Who knows. I can certainly agree with the hold'm approach as well. In the end 2013 is about maintaining LF production, and improving CF and 3b. And the bench.

[marcshoe]

It's not as if Bailey's peripherals predict a downturn, but that his improvement was hinted at by last year's peripherals (see 2012 prediction thread) and helped along by his being healthy for a full season. Add in his strong finish, and you have a player who is finally coming into his potential. Getting tod of him now for mediocrity and a prospect could be the worst timed decision winch Bob Welch left Fleetwood Mac.

[mdccclxix]

I think Bailey's at his peak, which is why it is a sell high. If you don't think Span is a good player, that's one thing. There are tons of options, and typically we have no idea who they are.

[mdccclxix]

Back to the budget for a second:

If you take Ludwick's 6.5 million (leaving the .5M buyout) and Stubbs 2.9M out, you've got 9.4 in reduction. So, just call it 9. That puts the Reds at 87 million without a starting CF or LF. Take Bailey's 5 million off and it's 82 million, which is around where they've been the last few years. Now you need a starter or closer...

I think with the coming tv contract, we'll see 95 million as a distinct possibility, but next year? We'll see. It's hard getting around any of this.

[camisadelgolf]

The Reds have been saving money for this day. I'm not too worried about the Reds having a $90+M payroll next season.

[marcshoe]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I think Bailey's at his peak, which is why it is a sell high. If you don't think Span is a good player, that's one thing. There are tons of options, and typically we have no idea who they are.

Why do you think Bailey has peaked?

Btw, I don't think Span is a bad player, just nothing special. I wouldn't cash in valuable chips for him.

Could be wrong.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by marcshoe

Why do you think Bailey has peaked?

Btw, I don't think Span is a bad player, just nothing special. I wouldn't cash in valuable chips for him.

Could be wrong.

I think he's got a very nice mix of pitches, but generally his command is inconsistent and he lacks a put away pitch often as a result. His fastball is pretty straight and I think he depends on very fine control - similar to Harang. In fact, I'd expect him to be like Harang for the next few years, which would be outstanding, but not much better than this year.

When I stated "peak" I was thinking "plateau", although I'm not counting on a long stay, and not ruling out injury setbacks. I love Bailey, love his story, love his place in this franchises recent history, but if he's bringing back equal value to fill a hole offensively I'm okay with selling at his "highest" point thus far.

Again, this isn't a sell off or rebuild style trade where you get what you can get. It's made of choice, not necessity, unless we find out there is not enough money for LF, etc. I'd love Bailey as the #4 again next year.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Bailey and Latos will win in arbitration.

How can you say that when we have no idea what they will be asking for?

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

I let Stubbs, Heisey, and Valdez walk.

Well, we need a 4th OF type that can play CF.. Those aren't that easy to come by. We are pretty much forced to keep one of Stubbs/Heisey, even if we can pull off a trade for an upgraded CF

We also need a backup inf that can play SS .. We can try to find an upgrade to Valdez, but usually a backup SS either hits or fields well.. not both. Valdez is adequate defensively.. Room for improvement, but not so sure I cut him loose just to save 1 million.. I'd sign him for 1 million, just to have one less thing to search for this offseason. If we find an upgrade, that's fine.

Others said to trade Homer or Leake.. It would take a very good player coming back to the Reds for me to consider that. I kind of doubt Chapman could make it through the entire season as a starter. No real help at AAA at starting pitching anyhow.. The rotation was a strength in 2012.. not in a hurry to dismantle that strength.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are -0.2 and -0.3 for WAR at Baseball-Reference. I know there are a lot of Fangraphs fans, but I prefer BR. I am not paying for negative WAR. No team should. Certainly not what MLBTR has predicted here. The only way around that is to sign them long term. Who really wants that?

IMO, this kind of discredits baseball reference.
No one is saying that Stubbs or Heisey is a star, but they are not replacement level players. Replacement level means easily attainable off the waiver wire for minimum salary. Show me 2 guys that can play defense and offense at their level AND who were readily available at any point last season at less than 1 million.. ( Readily available means picking off waiver wire, no trades). I'll give you from the end of 2011 season through the end of the 2012 season.
I'm guessing that would be a hard task to complete. (Juan Pierre doesn't qualify, as he's not a CFer).

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

The Reds have been saving money for this day. I'm not too worried about the Reds having a $90+M payroll next season.

This. We've been droning on and on about the budget laments for years here, then look what happened the past couple of years. Everyone was STUNNED by the signings. Chapman out of the blue. Extending Phillips, Bruce, Cueto and then the whopper of Votto that hardly anyone thought they could pull off. There's more money than many people think. It's just a question of whether they're willing to spend it is all.

[Tony Cloninger]

They can let Bray go. Horst looks pretty good and can fill in there. Wait? Oh yes they traded Horst for Valdez. So instead of having a replacement possible for Bray, while just signing someone to back up Cozart who could have given you better hitting, heck Juan Castro could have done no worse.... they get this. Among most people this trade would not register...to me it does on how little they valued Horst and how much they over valued Valdez.

[Patrick Bateman]

I find it amazing how the small moves like losing Horst are sarcastically lambasted for a team that won nearly 100 games. At some point one just has to realize that the bottom of the roster players are for the mpst part interchangable and very difficult to determine which ones are actually worthwhile pieces.

I will never ever care about losing Horst, nor will I get hung up on the 25th player on the roster, especially under the guise of a team that had an increibly successful season.

I'm not even going to get into the fact that Horst was actually a minor league free agent that EVERY team in baseball passed on before the Reds subsequently resigned him, and traded him when they realized that he was not going to make the team out of ST anyways.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Well, we need a 4th OF type that can play CF.. Those aren't that easy to come by. We are pretty much forced to keep one of Stubbs/Heisey, even if we can pull off a trade for an upgraded CF

Agreed, the Reds should keep one of Stubbs/Heisey as a 4th OF.

We also need a backup inf that can play SS .. We can try to find an upgrade to Valdez, but usually a backup SS either hits or fields well.. not both. Valdez is adequate defensively.. Room for improvement, but not so sure I cut him loose just to save 1 million.. I'd sign him for 1 million, just to have one less thing to search for this offseason. If we find an upgrade, that's fine.

If he's not traded for help elsewhere, I think DiDi Gregorius could fill Valdez's shoes as a backup MI. No reason to pay a lot for one.

Others said to trade Homer or Leake.. It would take a very good player coming back to the Reds for me to consider that. I kind of doubt Chapman could make it through the entire season as a starter. No real help at AAA at starting pitching anyhow.. The rotation was a strength in 2012.. not in a hurry to dismantle that strength.

I also wouldn't trade Homer or Leake for a song, although I would especially consider moving Leake for significant OF help (someone like Justin Upton). However I would dispute the notion that there is no real help at AAA in starting pitching. I think Tony Cingrani could contribute at least 5-10 starts to the big club in 2013 if needed, and he would be needed if Chapman is going to start. The two of them together could conceivably fill one rotation spot.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

I find it amazing how the small moves like losing Horst are sarcastically lambasted for a team that won nearly 100 games. At some point one just has to realize that the bottom of the roster players are for the mpst part interchangable and very difficult to determine which ones are actually worthwhile pieces.

I will never ever care about losing Horst, nor will I get hung up on the 25th player on the roster, especially under the guise of a team that had an increibly successful season.

I'm not even going to get into the fact that Horst was actually a minor league free agent that EVERY team in baseball passed on before the Reds subsequently resigned him, and traded him when they realized that he was not going to make the team out of ST anyways.

This. I could not care less about Horst. It's like complaining you didn't also get a small sandwich when you won a million dollars.