Adding productive leadoff man is Reds' top priority

[Sabo Fan]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

The reason the Reds didn't trade for Span at the deadline was because the Twins were demanding Cingrani (per MLBTradeRumors, I believe). That's too high of a price. If the Twins' demands have come down, the Reds should jump all over the chance at getting him. If not, I don't expect a deal will get done. Cingrani's stock has only risen since then (and it was plenty high to begin with). No way the Reds trade Cingrani for Span, but hopefully they can find a way to put a package of lesser players together for Span. I agree Leake/Ondrusek wouldn't be enough. Maybe Gregorius & Lotzkar? I wouldn't like to deal Didi, but I think Cozart is the long-term answer at SS even though he struggled down the stretch and in the playoffs. Have to remember the kid was a rookie, despite his age. He'll get better for sure, and was very solid as a rookie.

Whatever happens, the Reds need to address the CF/leadoff hitter situation. I can't stomach any more of Drew Stubbs in the starting lineup, even batting 7th or 8th.

If it was just Cingrani for Span, I couldn't sign the paperwork fast enough. Heck, they could even have their choice of Heisey or Stubbs. Productive, affordable, contract isn't outrageous, under club control for I believe two more seasons. I'll take what Span is over what Cingrani could be any day.

Slot him in at leadoff or #2, find some cheap power in LF or 3B, let Frazier play the other spot and away we go.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Almost every hitter who does well for the Rockies winds up with some lopsided home/road splits. Matt Holliday had them. Larry Walker had them. To me the key is whether the guy has the ability to readjust if he moves. Fowler is not a Vinny Castilla type, looking to hook the ball into the thin Colorado air. He's a gap-to-gap hitter with a good eye at the plate and I'd be mildly stunned if that didn't translate with a move closer to sea level.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by M2

Almost every hitter who does well for the Rockies winds up with some lopsided home/road splits. Matt Holliday had them. Larry Walker had them. To me the key is whether the guy has the ability to readjust if he moves. Fowler is not a Vinny Castilla type, looking to hook the ball into the thin Colorado air. He's a gap-to-gap hitter with a good eye at the plate and I'd be mildly stunned if that didn't translate with a move closer to sea level.

Walker and Holliday were both good hitters on the road. They weren't the absolute monsters that they were at home, but they were still solidly above average. Fowler is downright Stubbsian on the road.

[Cooper]

Is there a way to see if Fowler's Babip is low on the road?

[Griffey012]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

His splits would argue otherwise.

2012: 984 OPS at Coors, 720 OPS on the road
2009-2011: 910 OPS at Coors, 701 OPS on the road

Fowler is a pretty darn extreme example of the Coors effect.

Wow, pretty sharp splits. I clearly didn't look up any numbers and just made an assumption...a wrong assumption.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Cooper

Is there a way to see if Fowler's Babip is low on the road?

.367 home BABIP, .339 road BABIP (baseball-reference rules)

[GAC]

Originally Posted by mth123

Then they can keep him. He's an improvement, but had 2 bad years prior to this year and doesn't really addess the Reds need against RHP. There are other options who are better fits if Homer is the price.

I wasn't suggesting that Homer be part of the deal. I was thinking more in-line of other pitchers on the roster (LeCure for example), along with prospects.

[mth123]

It really needs to come from CF. The easiest to acquire would be a platoon guy who can share time with Stubbs until Hamilton is ready for his shot. None should require any of the Reds' starting pitchers, core relievers or major position players. Chris Heisey, Jose Arredondo, Kyle Lotzkar, H-Rod, Ryan Lamarre, Neftali Soto, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, Pedro Villareal and other spare parts would be my trade bait. I'd try to hold on to Didi, but he could go in the right deal.

1. Gerardo Parra
2. David Dejesus
3. Brett Gardner if the Yankees are giving him away to make room for a "name" (Josh Hamilton? Ichiro?).
4. Angel Pagan is probably out of the Reds' price range now.
5. Coco Crisp but they need to take Masset to even the money a bit.
6. Denard Span but he'd probably require more talent than I'd pay and doesn't really improve the team against RHP much.
7. Shane Victorino if the price drops to a reasonable deal similar to the one the Reds gave Ludwick last year.
8. Wil Venable if they think 80 to 100 starts in CF is doable with his defensive ability.

Given what I'd be willing to pay, I'd guess Dejesus is the most realistic target, but there are enough of these guys out there (behind the bigger CF prizes like Hamilton and Bourn) that the Reds should not need to wreck the pitching staff to upgrade CF against RHP. The bar is so low, even a flawed, marginal player could provide meaningful improvement IMO.

[Cooper]

Bill James mentioned he'd like to see someone who is failing with the whip it (28oz bat) strategy -try a 40 oz bat and see what would happen. He reports that the heavier bat leads to more bat control and a bigger zone on the bat to get good wood on it.

I would like to nominate Drew Stubbs as a fella who should think about trying it. A larger bat would slow down his swing and also mean he would have a bigger hitting zone - the whip it strategy does not work for him (excepting his low babip). Why do i feel like he's resistant to change? Maybe it was him not wanting to go to the minors after his injury -idk. The guy needs a complete over haul. Him hitting a ball 425ft 2 times a month isn't getting it done.

One more thing, I have this theory that GABP hurts a CFer's defensive numbers. There's not a lot of gap room to chase balls down. Can someone find out what Stubbs numbers are as a fielder on the road? Maybe some of his talent doesn't get to shine based on him playing CF in a park the size of a living room (keep in mind, all players defensive numbers tend to go down on the road based on not knowing the park as well). I wonder if you put Drew in a bigger park, if his numbers wouldn't increase.

[jhu1321]

Originally Posted by Sabo Fan

If it was just Cingrani for Span, I couldn't sign the paperwork fast enough. Heck, they could even have their choice of Heisey or Stubbs. Productive, affordable, contract isn't outrageous, under club control for I believe two more seasons. I'll take what Span is over what Cingrani could be any day.

Slot him in at leadoff or #2, find some cheap power in LF or 3B, let Frazier play the other spot and away we go.

I agree with everything in this post. However, I suspect they were asking for much more than just Cingrani..... Walt would have been all over it if that was all they were asking for.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Per mlb.com today, they're looking for a starter (innings-eater), a lefty out of the pen and maybe a 3B.

A Leake-Parra deal would work for both teams, IMO. (Or, if you prefer, Leake and Stubbs for Parra and a middling prospect.)

If you really wanted to make a splash, the following blockbuster would do just that:
Mike Leake
Todd Frazier
Sean Marshall

Justin Upton
Chris Johnson


Reds grab an elite talent to plug in LF and cleanup. They also get a solid, dependable 3B who may blossom into an above average bat and glove.

D'Backs get an innings eater who's still young and cheap, a young (cheap) 3B with upside, and an elite set-up guy.

Lots of risk, but the payoff could be huge.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

A Leake-Parra deal would work for both teams, IMO. (Or, if you prefer, Leake and Stubbs for Parra and a middling prospect.)

If you really wanted to make a splash, the following blockbuster would do just that:
Mike Leake
Todd Frazier
Sean Marshall

Justin Upton
Chris Johnson


Reds grab an elite talent to plug in LF and cleanup. They also get a solid, dependable 3B who may blossom into an above average bat and glove.

D'Backs get an innings eater who's still young and cheap, a young (cheap) 3B with upside, and an elite set-up guy.

Lots of risk, but the payoff could be huge.

I wouldn't do this deal until I had resigned Madson or acquired an above average reliever, and even then, I'm not sure that Marshall is the right guy to put in an Upton deal. Taking out our two best lefties from the pen is surely going to have an impact without some other big moves happening.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

It really needs to come from CF. The easiest to acquire would be a platoon guy who can share time with Stubbs until Hamilton is ready for his shot. None should require any of the Reds' starting pitchers, core relievers or major position players. Chris Heisey, Jose Arredondo, Kyle Lotzkar, H-Rod, Ryan Lamarre, Neftali Soto, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, Pedro Villareal and other spare parts would be my trade bait. I'd try to hold on to Didi, but he could go in the right deal.

1. Gerardo Parra
2. David Dejesus
3. Brett Gardner if the Yankees are giving him away to make room for a "name" (Josh Hamilton? Ichiro?).
4. Angel Pagan is probably out of the Reds' price range now.
5. Coco Crisp but they need to take Masset to even the money a bit.
6. Denard Span but he'd probably require more talent than I'd pay and doesn't really improve the team against RHP much.
7. Shane Victorino if the price drops to a reasonable deal similar to the one the Reds gave Ludwick last year.
8. Wil Venable if they think 80 to 100 starts in CF is doable with his defensive ability.

Given what I'd be willing to pay, I'd guess Dejesus is the most realistic target, but there are enough of these guys out there (behind the bigger CF prizes like Hamilton and Bourn) that the Reds should not need to wreck the pitching staff to upgrade CF against RHP. The bar is so low, even a flawed, marginal player could provide meaningful improvement IMO.

I think Victorino will sign with the Reds. Not my choice, but I'm guessing he's the Red's choice.

Reds may value defense too much to go with DeJesus, who is increasingly becoming a corner outfielder.

With Hamilton on the way up, I don't think the Reds will trade very much for a young CFer. Nor do I think they will spend a lot of cash on CF.

Victorino is at the stage in his career where he shouldn't command too much money. He didn't have a good year last season.

Again, he's not my choice. I prefer someone who is a better left handed hitter. But with Hamilton on the way, I'd guess it's Shane.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

I agree with everything in this post. However, I suspect they were asking for much more than just Cingrani..... Walt would have been all over it if that was all they were asking for.

Yea, I don't remember specifics (or even if specifics were named).
I do remember the Twins saying that since Span was signed to such a club friendly contract, they were in no hurry to trade him and the trade price was going to be through the roof. With that attitude, they are probably going to have him for the duration of his contract. He's a nice player, not an impact guy.
I think they wanted 3 prospects for Span.. Maybe my memory is wrong though..

You got to think that if the Twins were being reasonable, Walt would've gotten the trade done. I think Walt would've given them Cingrani plus (Heisey or Stubbs) at bare minium.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Again, he's not my choice. I prefer someone who is a better left handed hitter. But with Hamilton on the way, I'd guess it's Shane.

Victorino on a cheap 1 year reclamation contract isn't that bad of an idea.
The guy was 31 last year, and OPSed 847 in 2011. Plus he's a switch hitter.

Ludwick's uncertain status makes me warm up to the idea more.. although I don't expect Shane to expect a team friendly deal until around Jan-Feb.. (Although that may work to our favor, as it gives us time to explore other OF options).