Surprises and disappointments so far in the minors

[Vottomatic]

Who is doing better than you thought they would and who has disappointed?

[Superdude]

I thought Winker might fall off a bit at Dayton, but he's pretty much picked up right where he left off.

I had high hopes for Mejias-Brean, but it's looking like I may have been burned by Billings numbers once again (still early obviously). Guillon's walks have been shocking to say the least. A lot more disappointments than pleasant surprises so far. Hopefully the kids can turn things around.

[krm1580]

For surprise I will say Cingrani. I kept reading he is nothing more than a bullpen guy because he only has one pitch and he keeps getting guys out.

For disappointments, I will just keep it simple and say pretty much everybody except Cingrani and Winker. So far its really be a terrible year for Reds prospects thus far.

Looking at the RZ top 10

1) Billy Hamilton .232 .284/.331/.615
2) Robert Stephenson 2-3 4.05 ERA
4) Daniel Corcino 2-6 7.20 ERA
5) Jesse Winker .294 .395/.468/.863
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez .266 .315/.351/.666
8) Ismael Guillon 1-4 9.10 ERA
9) Yorman Rodriguez .223 .293/.397/.690
10) Tanner Rahier .171 .233/.341/.555

[thorn]

Pleasant Surprises - Devin Lohman and Chad Rogers from AA

[Benihana]

I wouldn't classify Stephenson or Winker as a surprise, as I expected ther success to continue as it has in Dayton. I am a bit surprised that Cingrani has been as good as he has, especially at the major league level. I don't see Chad Rogers as a big prospect but more of a bullpen arm and spot starter, but it's nice to see him continue to flourish in AA.

The rest of the top 10 have all been pretty disappointing, especially Corcino, Guillon, and Yorman Rodriguez. Also Kyle Lotzkar, who has officially moved to suspect status.

[Tony Cloninger]

Originally Posted by krm1580

For surprise I will say Cingrani. I kept reading he is nothing more than a bullpen guy because he only has one pitch and he keeps getting guys out.

For disappointments, I will just keep it simple and say pretty much everybody except Cingrani and Winker. So far its really be a terrible year for Reds prospects thus far.

Looking at the RZ top 10

1) Billy Hamilton .232 .284/.331/.615
2) Robert Stephenson 2-3 4.05 ERA
4) Daniel Corcino 2-6 7.20 ERA
5) Jesse Winker .294 .395/.468/.863
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez .266 .315/.351/.666
8) Ismael Guillon 1-4 9.10 ERA
9) Yorman Rodriguez .223 .293/.397/.690
10) Tanner Rahier .171 .233/.341/.555

Stephenson has been great? Are you looking at the right numbers? Because he has been very good and on track.

[REDREAD]

Going into the season, the guys I thought had a decent chance to be major leaguer contributors

Cingrani, Billy Hamilton . Robert Stephenson, Daniel Corcino , Jesse Winker

HRod might end up being a utility guy. I guess I really don't count him (and pitchers that might be marginal relievers) on the list of guys I have high hopes for.

I am surprised by how well Lutz has done this year.

I'm really not disappointed by anyone yet. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think everyone on my list moved up a level this season (maybe not Corcino?) We aren't deep into the season.. guys are going to struggle when they hit a new level.

[Edd Roush]

I guess I will be the first to mention Felix Perez as my surprise player of the year. Sure, he hit 300+ last year, but showed very little ability to take a walk and no pop. This year, he has already topped his season high for home runs, and is walking at a 8.3% BB rate. If he can continue any where near a .201 ISO while walking over 8% of the time, he should be a mid season call-up with his cannon arm and great contact skills.

For disappointments, I will take Hamilton over Corcino. What a bummer Billy has been this year. Many have made the great point that you need power to be an offensive weapon and Billy is struggling to find first base against pitchers who don't walk him any more because he hasn't made them pay yet. If Billy continues with an OBP below 320 by August, the Reds have to have a contingency plan that is not Chris Heisey for centerfield next year if Billy is not ready and we cannot re-sign Choo.

[texasdave]

Tim Crabbe seems to have turned himself into a different type of pitcher. The results, so far, are promising. He is striking out fewer hitters but also walking fewer. The early returns show him having his best K/BB, WHIP and ERA numbers of his career. We will have to see if this continues.

Year	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	WHIP	ERA 
2009	9.5	4.9	1.96	1.660	4.86
2010	8.3	6.0	1.38	1.628	4.26
2011	9.8	3.5	2.79	1.268	3.45
2012	9.6	5.1	1.89	1.444	4.25
2013	6.1	2.0	3.00	1.185	2.27

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Tim Crabbe seems to have turned himself into a different type of pitcher. The results, so far, are promising. He is striking out fewer hitters but also walking fewer. The early returns show him having his best K/BB, WHIP and ERA numbers of his career. We will have to see if this continues.

Year	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	WHIP	ERA 
2009	9.5	4.9	1.96	1.660	4.86
2010	8.3	6.0	1.38	1.628	4.26
2011	9.8	3.5	2.79	1.268	3.45
2012	9.6	5.1	1.89	1.444	4.25
2013	6.1	2.0	3.00	1.185	2.27

Thanks for posting. I was one of Crabbe's biggest fans after 2011, but boy did he disappoint with that 5.1 BB/9 last year. Let's hope he can keep these walks down for the rest of his career.

[klw]

Greg Reynolds has been a very pleasant surprise for Louisville.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=453353

To be honest, I had no expectations for him, couldn't remember who he was and until 5 minutes ago I thought he was called Matt, but even if that wasn't the case he has pitched very nicely. He provides nice AAA depth in case of injury.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by klw

Greg Reynolds has been a very pleasant surprise for Louisville.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=453353

To be honest, I had no expectations for him, couldn't remember who he was and until 5 minutes ago I thought he was called Matt, but even if that wasn't the case he has pitched very nicely. He provides nice AAA depth in case of injury.

As does Armando Galarraga. The problem for both of them is that neither is on the 40-man. So you figure there will have to be at least two Reds' starters go down, at least, before either gets a shot. So, I am hoping to not see either pitching for the Reds this season.

[klw]

Originally Posted by texasdave

As does Armando Galarraga. The problem for both of them is that neither is on the 40-man. So you figure there will have to be at least two Reds' starters go down, at least, before either gets a shot. So, I am hoping to not see either pitching for the Reds this season.

I was thinking earlier that if Reynolds ends up pitching for the Reds this year it is a sign things have gone really bad and was not thinking that as a slight against Mr. Reynolds.

[mace]

Drew Hayes has been a big disappointment to me. I thought he might compete for the closer's job at Louisville. Instead, he has struggled mightily at Pensacola, where he pitched last year. His opponent OPS is .820. Wasn't expecting that.

And Steve Selsky, I guess, as a hitter. Last year, the organizational hitter of the year. This year, demoted by mid-May. Also Ryan Wright. He seems to have taken the fast track to Chris Valaika.

Felix Perez has definitely been a surprise. He hit .301 last year, but without power. I saw him play a couple years ago and just didn't like his swing. It struck me as too long a swing for a guy whose body didn't support it. But he has been extremely solid this year in every respect.

And while Chad Rogers was excellent last year, there was no way I'd have anticipated the dominance he has shown this time around.

[lollipopcurve]

Here's a nice lower profile surprise -- El'Hajj Muhammad, closing for a terrible Bakersfield team. 19 innings, 6 hits against, 29 Ks, .107 BA against, 0.93 ERA. Only weakness has been 13 BBs. That's a hitters league out there, and he's dominating.