Justin Upton A Red?

[Salukifan2]

agreed

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

in 2010 hamilton struck out 133 times in 135 games and in 2011 he struck out 113 in 130 games. Better but not a whole lot better and that is from baseball reference.

except for 2011 when stubbs k'd 200 times their k numbers are pretty similar.

On top of that, you don't just say one day, "i'm going to start playing centerfield," which after catcher, is the most difficult defensive position in baseball. There is no way he will be mlb ready for center field at any time in 2013. I mean for christ sake he's only played 50 games at double-A

Drew Stubbs K%:
2010 - 28.8%
2011 - 30.1%
2012 - 30.5%

Billy Hamilton K%:
2010 - 17.7%
2011 - 21.8%
2012 - 18.4%

As far as moving to CF, Robin Yount & Craig Biggio both made that exact change. Not to mention, Hamilton took a round of BP in CF all last season, will be playing it in the AFL then again in the spring. Will he be ready for the majors at the beginning of the season? Highly doubtful. Can he be sometime in 2013? Absolutely he can.

[Salukifan2]

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

Drew Stubbs K%:
2010 - 28.8%
2011 - 30.1%
2012 - 30.5%

Billy Hamilton K%:
2010 - 17.7%
2011 - 21.8%
2012 - 18.4%

As far as moving to CF, Robin Yount & Craig Biggio both made that exact change. Not to mention, Hamilton took a round of BP in CF all last season, will be playing it in the AFL then again in the spring. Will he be ready for the majors at the beginning of the season? Highly doubtful. Can he be sometime in 2013? Absolutely he can.

You just proved my point with those stats. That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.

Also, biggio played less than 200 career games in CF. Also craig biggio is a hall of famer with 3 thousand hits and so is yount. If they are capable of that kind of production you have to find a spot for them.

Therefore, you just compared a 22 yr old who hasn't even played half a season at double a to two first ballot hall of famers. I didn't say Hamilton will be bust. I just don't think he will be playing major league center field before 2014 and that kind of talent is worth giving up if youre talking about Justin Upton in return

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

You just proved my point with those stats. That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.

Also, biggio played less than 200 career games in CF. Also craig biggio is a hall of famer with 3 thousand hits and so is yount. If they are capable of that kind of production you have to find a spot for them.

Therefore, you just compared a 22 yr old who hasn't even played half a season at double a to two first ballot hall of famers. I didn't say Hamilton will be bust. I just don't think he will be playing major league center field before 2014 and that kind of talent is worth giving up if youre talking about Justin Upton in return

You said he and Stubbs had similar K rates. The only thing I proved was that they don't, nothing else. It's also not the end of the world to have a 20% K rate as a leadoff man. The most sought after leadoff man this offseason has a career K rate of over 20% in Michael Bourn. Dexter Fowler has a career K rate of 22.5%. 2nd Place in the MVP, Mike Trout had a K rate of 21.8%. Austin Jackson 21.7%. Ideal? No. Catastrophic? No.

I compared Hamilton to no one. You said you can't just decide one day to play CF and do it. I said it's been done. No comparison was made whatsoever.

[JayStubbs]

I can give you 40 million and one reasons why the Reds don't need to trade Hamilton to get J. Upton.

The first 40 million are dollars owed to Upton over the next three years. Chances are Hamilton provides close to the same value over the same years, for around $2M.

The one other reason is ths D-Backs have been trying to trade Upton for the last three years. Teams don't try to trade all-star caliber players under the age of 25 unless there are other issues beyond the box score. Rumors have swarmed Upton his whole career that he's a negative in the clubhouse, that he's not dedicated to improving or winning.

Upton isn't a bad target, but the price has to be nice. Didi, Bailey and change is more than enough. No way he justifies a top 25 prospect in the game.

[Salukifan2]

Thats just another opinion. I was just speaking my opinion that i think 1. hamilton for upton is a deal worth jumping on and 2. hamilton is being is being a little over blown as a prospect. Which is all he is remember. Only 50 games in double-a. I just think that any leadoff hitter who strikes out that much and has that unimpressive of a batting average when they are his age is kinda unsettling and that justin upton is a proven major leaguer. thats all.

And there is also a reason they have held on to him for the last three seasons.

I could be very wrong, if hamilton blows up and goes crazy you can rub it in my face publicly

[webbbj]

Originally Posted by JayStubbs

Upton isn't a bad target, but the price has to be nice. Didi, Bailey and change is more than enough. No way he justifies a top 25 prospect in the game.

now thats a trade I would not make. I also dont want to trade Hamilton, but I do think he is an overrated prospect. By that I mean I dont think hes untouchable.

[webbbj]

Originally Posted by JayStubbs

I can give you 40 million and one reasons why the Reds don't need to trade Hamilton to get J. Upton.

The first 40 million are dollars owed to Upton over the next three years. Chances are Hamilton provides close to the same value over the same years, for around $2M.

I agree, and didnt realize the $ amt Upton was owed. I was under the impression he was still relatively cheap.

Now, players I would start a conversation about hamilton would be w/ Giancarlo Stanton, Starlin Castro, brett lawrie and that might be it.

A cheap young player player under contract for many years that is highly regarded. I doubt any of those guys are available but who knows. And there may be some players I havent thought of.

[OneManBand]

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

Becuase Your number 1 prospect is only ranked 21st of all prospects in mlb right now soley on his ability to run. Billy hamilton is not the next ty cobb like so many have branded him. The guy only hit .286 at double A and has struck out at a rate that is comparable to Drew Stubbs in his last two full seasons. If he would have played 162 games in the past two years he would average about 140 or so k's. not so good for a future leadoff man and you can't blame it on his age becuase he is already 22 and will be probably 23 before is an everyday big leaguer.

In return you would be getting a 25 year old who in 3 of his 5 full seasons had an ops over .800 and it has never been below .775. Also he would be benefited greatly to be around players like Votto and Phillips who he can learn alot from. Not to mention his power numbers would only go up playing in cincinnati, which as i said earlier is a ball park where hamilton's speed isn't really needed in the outfield.

And in response to what you said about getting Latos, before he got busted Grandal was ranked about 5 spots ahead of Hamilton in the top 50 prospects. You also gave up Alonso who was also in the mlb top 100 prospects, so actually you gave up, at the time, more to get Latos possibly than you would have to to acquire Upton. And upton right now is a more established big leaguer than latos was a year ago.

Also, you can never look at anything Billy Beane does with normal baseball common sense. That man traded Carlos Gonzalez for matt Holiday and then traded matt Holiday to the cardinals for Brett Wallace. So no one really knows why he does the things he does

Batting .311 with a .410 OBP & stealing a minor league record 155 bases would be a sign of a player not doing well for me let me tell you. Yes he batted .283 in AA but also got on base over 40% of the time.

The Blue Jays didn't give up Gose, d'Arnaud, or Lawrie to obtain 90% of the Marlins payroll. So the Reds shouldn't need to deal their top prospect to obtain a player that the DBacks have been saying is available for 2 seasons now. I never said that it was all the players included. I'd include Corcino with Leake, Didi, & Stubbs. That is a solid return for a team who would want major league ready players along with some soon to be ready talent. Now 2-3 weeks from now when Upton is dealt for a package similar to Didi & Corcino you guys will be all up in arms that the Reds didn't pull the trigger. Arizona will not get as much as some think as he is soon to make extra money to go along with his 17 HRs and around 70 RBIs.

[rgslone]

I agree that the strikeout propensity of Hamilton and Stubbs are not comparable. To put it in perspective, Dave Kingman was a player infamous for and considered synonymous with strikeouts in the 70s and 80s. During the season of his highest strikeout total his strikeout percentage was only 29.16%. I'm not going to research it, but it seems to me that Stubbs may just be in a historical class by himself when it comes to whiffing.

Still, I think Hamilton's strikeout rate has been a little higher than stated in the thread [e.g., 2009 (28.31%); 2010 (19.79%); 2011 (24.18%); 2012 (22.07%)]. So, Hamilton's strikeout rate still needs improvement - but the reports on him are that he understands this and has been working on and improving his approach to make better contact. His work ethic and desire to keep improving (again, as reported by others, like Doug Dirt) are big reasons I think Hamilton will succeed on a major league roster.

[Salukifan2]

The main point of wat i was saying is that many people on this board have elevated hamilton to demi god status. To a point where youd only give him up for for someone like miguel cabrera or trout or harper and hes just not that kind of prospect.

Honestly based the numbers he has put up to this point in the minors he is almost the exact same player as dee gordon. Their numbers are honestly eerily similar. and so are there body types. The difference between the two is that hamilton has stolen more bases but also struck out alot more. and Gordon actually had more total bases even though he only stole about half as many. Now, would you have said the dodgers were crazy for trading dee gordon for upton if they did? No, you would call it a steal.

Lastly anyone who thinks hamilton is going to steal bases like that off major league pitchers an catchers is crazy. Ill give him between 40 and 60 bags a year till he is 30 but he isnt rickey henderson. He is a good player that every organization wants but he isn't bryce harper

[Salukifan2]

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

It's also not the end of the world to have a 20% K rate as a leadoff man. The most sought after leadoff man this offseason has a career K rate of over 20% in Michael Bourn. Dexter Fowler has a career K rate of 22.5%. 2nd Place in the MVP, Mike Trout had a K rate of 21.8%. Austin Jackson 21.7%. Ideal? No. Catastrophic? No.

1.) Hamilton is not comparable to Jackson because jackson is power hitting run producing leadoff hitter. And so is mike trout (who will not be batting leadoff next year) so also not really comparable.

2.) being a cards fan i saw how overrated bourn was in houston and in atlanta. he is .272 career hitter, only had a obp of .350 once, and has never had 200 hits. he is the most overrated leadoff hitter. Honestly, Bourn's numbers are barely better than his predecessor in houston Willy Taveras.

3.) Fowler has a good career obp but is still a .271 career batter.

Hamilton is a leadoff hitter who relies on his legs to get on base, thats evident from his his lack of extra base hits. And if he is striking out at a 20% clip thats alot worse than jackson because he had 55 xb hits, trout had 65 xb hits, and while fowler only had 42 xb hits in'12 he had 55 in'11. In 50 games at double-a hamilton had a whopping 10 xb hits.

If you're saying hamilton is similar to any of these players then he is definitely movable. A deal with any of those players for Upton would be a good trade unless you already had a stacked outfield

[Alpha Zero]

Somehow this has devolved into a discussion of Hamilton's worth as a prospect. Is he overhyped? Yes, probably. Is he untouchable? No, he should be available in the right deal. But would Upton be that "right deal?". I don't really think so. Obviously you do. Now if it's Hamilton for Upton straight up? That's a different story, but Arizona is going to want more than one guy for Upton, probably more like 3-4.

I'm only willing to deal packages including top prospects for guys who are clear difference makers and are under team control for a while for a reasonable amount of money. Latos was that guy. I'm not so sure that Upton is. His contract isn't outlandish, but it's not cheap. Regardless of what you think of him as a player, that hurts his trade value a bit, period.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by rgslone

Still, I think Hamilton's strikeout rate has been a little higher than stated in the thread [e.g., 2009 (28.31%); 2010 (19.79%); 2011 (24.18%); 2012 (22.07%)]. So, Hamilton's strikeout rate still needs improvement - but the reports on him are that he understands this and has been working on and improving his approach to make better contact. His work ethic and desire to keep improving (again, as reported by others, like Doug Dirt) are big reasons I think Hamilton will succeed on a major league roster.

I believe you are using the incorrect formula for K%. It should be K's divided by Plate Appearances. I think you are using K's divided by At-Bats. Not a big deal but that's why my numbers are lower.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

1.) Hamilton is not comparable to Jackson because jackson is power hitting run producing leadoff hitter. And so is mike trout (who will not be batting leadoff next year) so also not really comparable.

2.) being a cards fan i saw how overrated bourn was in houston and in atlanta. he is .272 career hitter, only had a obp of .350 once, and has never had 200 hits. he is the most overrated leadoff hitter. Honestly, Bourn's numbers are barely better than his predecessor in houston Willy Taveras.

3.) Fowler has a good career obp but is still a .271 career batter.

Hamilton is a leadoff hitter who relies on his legs to get on base, thats evident from his his lack of extra base hits. And if he is striking out at a 20% clip thats alot worse than jackson because he had 55 xb hits, trout had 65 xb hits, and while fowler only had 42 xb hits in'12 he had 55 in'11. In 50 games at double-a hamilton had a whopping 10 xb hits.

If you're saying hamilton is similar to any of these players then he is definitely movable. A deal with any of those players for Upton would be a good trade unless you already had a stacked outfield

Just because I use 2 names in the same post does not mean I'm comparing them. Just like with Yount and Biggio, absolutely, positively ZERO comparison was made other than Yount and Biggio made the switch when you said it can't happen and that those other leadoff hitters have a 20% K rate when you said that was a horrible rate for a leadoff man. I'm not the one using stats to try and prove Hamilton's worth. You are using statistics to disprove his worth and when I give evidence to the contrary you turn it around on me as if I'm throwing around comparable players.

I'm not going to get into the stuff about you devaluing Bourn and Fowler, which I totally disagree with, but I don't want to further stray from the topic