Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Bourn is a decent comp, but let's be sure to note that Bourn hit more baseballs over the fence every full season he had in the minors than Hamilton has in his professional career. There is a difference between the lack of power of Hamilton and the lack of power of Bourn.

LOL

Talk about a specious argument just for the sake of being argumentative.

I doubt pitchers 'feared' Bourne's five HR power any more than they 'fear' Hamilton's two HR power. Two or three extra HR a year are meaningless. Neither guy is a HR threat in any way, shape or form. But that doesn't mean they aren't threats with the bat. Both Bourn and Hamilton hit lots of doubles and triples, and while pitchers might not fear doubles/triples as much as HR, they are still wary of giving them up.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

LOL

I doubt pitchers 'feared' Bourne's five HR power any more than they 'fear' Hamilton's two HR power. Two or three extra HR a year are meaningless. Neither guy is a HR threat in any way, shape or form. But that doesn't mean they aren't threats with the bat. Both Bourn and Hamilton hit lots of doubles and triples, and while pitchers might not fear doubles/triples as much as HR, they are still wary of giving them up.

I don't think they fear Bourn either. That wasn't really my point, it was that we know that Bourn was able to translate his skills and we don't know if Hamilton can yet.

I simply brought up Bourns power as a comparison as to just how little power Hamilton actually has. Bourn has no power at all. Yet he had more home runs each season go over the fence than Hamilton has in his entire career.

[Scrap Irony]

Tom Verducci:

Hamilton, a former shortstop, took well to the transition to centerfield, and he is much more than a slap hitter. He does have gap power from both sides of the plate.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz2DAuSnMXV

Unnamed American League scout, from an ESPN article:

"He's strong enough to defend himself at the plate," said an American League scout, "and he can outquick the ball at times. His hands work just fine."

Same article:

He puts the right swing on the ball to generate lots of line drives..

From another Sports Illustrated article:

"He can swing the bat," says Griffey. "If [the Reds] do decide to call him up, I know he can handle the job really well, and it's not just pinch hitting and pinch running. He can play. Billy can handle the bat pretty good."

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz2DAymhbqj

Again, Hamilton has power. It's not great power, but, mixed with his speed, the power he does have plays up to a significant degree. That will allow him to out-slug his true power score almost every year.

If you look at the minor league power numbers of guys like Dee Gordon and other no-hit or light-hitting guys with monster speed, you'll see they didn't hit with power in the minors either. Yet, Hamilton has shown himself as an above average slugger.

Again, while he's certainly not a threat to hit double figures in homers, he does have decent minor league power. If that power continues as he moves up the ladder, no one knows. But he's got it.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think they fear Bourn either. That wasn't really my point, it was that we know that Bourn was able to translate his skills and we don't know if Hamilton can yet.

I simply brought up Bourns power as a comparison as to just how little power Hamilton actually has. Bourn has no power at all. Yet he had more home runs each season go over the fence than Hamilton has in his entire career.

That's a good point about the translation of his numbers. To me, his value is very tied up in how his walks and BABIP hold up at the big league level. If pitchers start pounding strikes up in the zone and major league infielders are significantly more successful at turning his groundballs into outs, we could see some struggles IMO. We really won't know until he gets up here.

[dougdirt]

When a scout says you are strong enough to defend yourself at the plate it tells you all that you need to know about how little power someone has. He has a career minor league IsoP of .100 despite playing in three very friendly home run ballparks (Billings, Bakersfield and Pensacola).

He had 0 home runs in 2009 with the GCL Reds.
He had 2 home runs in 2010 with Billings. One left the park.
He had 3 home runs in 2011 with Dayton. Two left the park.
He had 2 home runs in 2012, one with Bakersfield and one with Pensacola. One left the park.

How people can continue to sit back and say he has power boggles my mind. He doesn't. At all. Yes, he has more power than Norris Hopper did. That doesn't mean he has power though. He has 1711 career plate appearances and has hit the ball over the fence four times.

He can succeed with that, but the guy simply doesn't have power.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

When a scout says you are strong enough to defend yourself at the plate it tells you all that you need to know about how little power someone has. He has a career minor league IsoP of .100 despite playing in three very friendly home run ballparks (Billings, Bakersfield and Pensacola).

He had 0 home runs in 2009 with the GCL Reds.
He had 2 home runs in 2010 with Billings. One left the park.
He had 3 home runs in 2011 with Dayton. Two left the park.
He had 2 home runs in 2012, one with Bakersfield and one with Pensacola. One left the park.

How people can continue to sit back and say he has power boggles my mind. He doesn't. At all. Yes, he has more power than Norris Hopper did. That doesn't mean he has power though. He has 1711 career plate appearances and has hit the ball over the fence four times.

He can succeed with that, but the guy simply doesn't have power.

Why do you keep turning this into an argument about home runs? No one is saying he has home run power. Everyone agrees with you on that count.

Where we don't agree is on his ability to generate extra base power. Billy has more than enough life in his bat to shoot the ball between outfielders and make them turn their hips. The guy had 38 extra base hits this year. Those weren't all wacky Billy Hamilton infield doubles and triples. The vast majority of them were legit line drives where Billy squared the ball up on the barrel of the bat and drove it.

[dougdirt]

If you can't hit the ball over the fence, then you don't have power. If you want to refer to power as something other than home runs, you can, but it isn't. Hamilton can hit the ball into the gaps. Great. He is a professional baseball player. He better be able to do that. Everyone else can do it too.

I keep talking about home run power, because if you don't show it, pitchers have no reason to not just pound the strikezone. And if they pound the strikezone, you aren't going to walk and you are going to have to hit the ball. Hamilton has shown that he can be struck out, and often. So it comes down to what can he do to make up for this? Can he still walk enough? Can he lower the strikeouts? He is going to need to do one of those two things if he is going to succeed offensively.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If you can't hit the ball over the fence, then you don't have power. If you want to refer to power as something other than home runs, you can, but it isn't. Hamilton can hit the ball into the gaps. Great. He is a professional baseball player. He better be able to do that. Everyone else can do it too.

I keep talking about home run power, because if you don't show it, pitchers have no reason to not just pound the strikezone. And if they pound the strikezone, you aren't going to walk and you are going to have to hit the ball. Hamilton has shown that he can be struck out, and often. So it comes down to what can he do to make up for this? Can he still walk enough? Can he lower the strikeouts? He is going to need to do one of those two things if he is going to succeed offensively.

You keep insisting pitchers are going to somehow hammer him worse than other hitters, yet ignore evidence that shows hitters just like him in the past. The BB rates of those players didn't go down. Why would Hamilton's BB rate be the only one to change?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

You keep insisting pitchers are going to somehow hammer him worse than other hitters, yet ignore evidence that shows hitters just like him in the past. The BB rates of those players didn't go down. Why would Hamilton's BB rate be the only one to change?

Plenty of guys walk rates go down in the Majors from where they were in the minors. And pitchers will "hammer him worse", at least in pounding the zone, because there should be no fear in throwing him a right down the middle fastball.

[lollipopcurve]

there should be no fear in throwing him a right down the middle fastball.

Very rarely do major league pitchers pitch anybody that way. They stay out of the middle of the plate as much as possible, especially with fastballs. Thinking Hamilton will be pitched that way is naive, at best.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Plenty of guys walk rates go down in the Majors from where they were in the minors. And pitchers will "hammer him worse", at least in pounding the zone, because there should be no fear in throwing him a right down the middle fastball.

This point still intrigues me though. You would think that when facing a guy like Hamilton that can't hurt you and is pesky on the base paths, throwing anything but strikes would be a borderline sin, but Michael Bourn's always walked quite a bit. Brett Gardner walks a lot. Granted, these guys have marginally more power than Hamilton, but I doubt five homers is enough to substantially change a pitcher's strategy.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Very rarely do major league pitchers pitch anybody that way. They stay out of the middle of the plate as much as possible, especially with fastballs. Thinking Hamilton will be pitched that way is naive, at best.

And most Major Leaguers can hit that pitch over the fence.

[757690]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If you can't hit the ball over the fence, then you don't have power. If you want to refer to power as something other than home runs, you can, but it isn't. Hamilton can hit the ball into the gaps. Great. He is a professional baseball player. He better be able to do that. Everyone else can do it too.

I keep talking about home run power, because if you don't show it, pitchers have no reason to not just pound the strikezone. And if they pound the strikezone, you aren't going to walk and you are going to have to hit the ball. Hamilton has shown that he can be struck out, and often. So it comes down to what can he do to make up for this? Can he still walk enough? Can he lower the strikeouts? He is going to need to do one of those two things if he is going to succeed offensively.

From a pitchers standpoint, the difference between giving up a double and a home run is minimal. They both clear the bases, most of the time with a double, all of the time with a HR. That's what a pitcher worries most about with runners in base.

The biggest difference is with the bases empty. But let's be honest, a ball to wall hit by Hamilton is going to be a triple. I've seen him turn it into an inside the park Homer a few times.

Basically, if Hamilton can drive the ball to the wall, pitchers will fear him, or at least they should.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

From a pitchers standpoint, the difference between giving up a double and a home run is minimal. They both clear the bases, most of the time with a double, all of the time with a HR. That's what a pitcher worries most about with runners in base.

The biggest difference is with the bases empty. But let's be honest, a ball to wall hit by Hamilton is going to be a triple. I've seen him turn it into an inside the park Homer a few times.

Basically, if Hamilton can drive the ball to the wall, pitchers will fear him, or at least they should.

OTOH, if they walk him its likely he ends up on third anyway. Let him hit it and he'll be out over 50% of the time. Walking him would result in him on base every time. They'll catch him trying to steal occassionally, but not at the same rate he'd be out if they throw him a cookie.

If there are guys on base in front of him, they'll be more careful to prevent driving in runners, but if they walk him then, he won't be able to run anyway.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And most Major Leaguers can hit that pitch over the fence.

And Hamilton would drive it to the wall for a bases clearing double with runners on, or a triple maybe even a ITPHR without runners.

I've read two of the more ridiculous assertions I've ever read on RedsZone in this thread and they are 1, that a pitcher does not care about giving up a double, and 2, that Billy Hamilton could not AT LEAST hit a fastball dead down the middle for a line drive.