Trading a starting pitcher

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

We could conceivably get our left fielder without trading any starters but rather position players and relievers or even lower-level starters. Or even signing a FA. I see no need to basically tell a guy to pack his bags...we'll find someone to trade him for soon enough. Seems to be working the problem from the wrong angle. Just my opinion.

We seem to hold many similar opinions until we get to this point. As an aside, I agreed with your Matt Maloney comparison to Redmond, much more than Lehr. Both Maloney and Redmond can strike minor leaguers out, which Lehr could never do. Redmond and Maloney are guys who can win you a game with a good rest of the team in the bigs, Lehr cannot.

Anyway, back to the main point. What would you give to get an impact bat in left field that does not include a starting pitcher? What position players could you trade? Mesoraco while his value is at a four-year low? Hanigan when Mesoraco hasn't proved he can play everyday in the bigs? Certainly not Votto, Phillips, Frazier or Bruce, right? Cozart could have some value, but are you ready to roll with Didi every day? I'm not. You could trade Didi, but he is just a side piece and certainly not the centerpiece. Heisey, Paul and Stubbs have next to no value. You could trade Soto, but he is a throw in piece and not even a side piece. I don't think there is anything we could deal position player wise to help get a left field bat outside of Billy Hamilton. Billy could be a centerpiece, but both the Marlins and Royals would need much more to deal.

Furthermore, relievers have next to no value in trades. Let's remember we got Hoover for just Juan Francisco next year. I think Corcino, Cingrani and to a lesser extent, Lotzkar have value. However, Corcino + Cingrani + Lotzkar + position players/relievers still isn't enough for Myers or Stanton. Maybe if you include Billy Hamilton. I believe you would need to give up Leake + at least two of Corcino, Hamilton, Cingrani and Lotzkar to get the Royals/Marlins to consider a deal.

I metion Myers and Stanton frequently because they are not too expensive $ wise (Myers is in fact almost free) and would be under Reds' control for at least three years, which give them a lot of value. I don't want to deal away all of my pitching depth.

As for FA, if the Reds have money to sign Ludwick and still also upgrade CF, great. If not, we need to look to do something in the trade market.

It's not like I really want to see Leake off this team ASAP. I just think he has more value starting every fifth day for a team looking to rebuild than he does sitting in Louisville. If the Royals/Marlins like him and some of our minor leaguers enough, let's make a deal. If not, okay. I don't want Walt to give it all away for either of the two, but if a reasonable deal can be worked out. I would like to see Walt pull the trigger.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.

If the Reds can afford Ludwick, a plattoon partner for Stubbs and a lefty reliever, great. Let's hold onto our starting pitching. If we cannot afford all three, we need to look to pile on some prospects on top of Leake/Bailey to see if we can get a solid left fielder.

If Stanton is not available, cool, but I would like for Walt to at least see.

If Myers can fetch Lester, more power to the Royals. If Myers does not equal Lester and the Royals still want pitching, I think we should see if we have enough to get a deal done. If not, at least we tried. That's all I am trying to say.

[Rojo]

If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, then we're only looking to replace a #5. Leake's a great #5, but a #5 nonetheless. Not a code red.

If we trade Leake, Chapman fails and another starter goes south, well, it probably wasn't our year to begin with and Leake probably wasn't going to fix it.

There a few teams -- KC, MN, AZ -- that would probably do well to add Leake, but may balk because short righties with middling stuff don't get the juices flowing.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

If the Reds can afford Ludwick, a plattoon partner for Stubbs and a lefty reliever, great. Let's hold onto our starting pitching. If we cannot afford all three, we need to look to pile on some prospects on top of Leake/Bailey to see if we can get a solid left fielder.

If Stanton is not available, cool, but I would like for Walt to at least see.

If Myers can fetch Lester, more power to the Royals. If Myers does not equal Lester and the Royals still want pitching, I think we should see if we have enough to get a deal done. If not, at least we tried. That's all I am trying to say.

And honestly, I have no way of knowing what the Reds are targeting. They tend to rely on their scouts a lot and those guys don't send info about who they like to mlbtraderumors, lol. We'll see, I'd be thrilled to land Myers, who I feel would be the upper limit of their abilities to acquire, and I agree with your premise that the SP is our strength to deal from. I think Leake is closer to Travis Wood in value than he is Bailey, although he could certainly fetch some helpful talent. Just someone to hit RHP is all we need.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.

Disagree on Bailey. He is enough to fetch a very good LF, if the Reds are willing.

One could make an argument that he has every bit as much trade value as Lester.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Rojo

If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, then we're only looking to replace a #5. Leake's a great #5, but a #5 nonetheless. Not a code red.

If we trade Leake, Chapman fails and another starter goes south, well, it probably wasn't our year to begin with and Leake probably wasn't going to fix it.

There a few teams -- KC, MN, AZ -- that would probably do well to add Leake, but may balk because short righties with middling stuff don't get the juices flowing.

If we trade Leake and Chapman fails, we will be looking to replace a #5. I agree with that. However, I am willing to give Chapman around 20 starts (or more) to figure out that Chapman can't start. By that point, Corcino or Cingrani could be ready to step into a low-pressure #5 role. That being said, I think there is less than a 10% chance that Chapman does not perform well enough to be a #5 big league starter.

Leake may not be a big name, but MN, KC, AZ and MIA need young, talented pitching which Leake fits the bill for. Actually, AZ fans will probably remember him kindly since he was a Golden Spike finalist in their state only three years ago.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I think Leake is closer to Travis Wood in value than he is Bailey, although he could certainly fetch some helpful talent. Just someone to hit RHP is all we need.

I would agree with this. Leake does have 4.0 fWAR at this point in his career, while Wood had only 3.3 fWAR when he was dealt. Still Leake has started three years in the bigs and Wood was only two years in when he was dealt. If Leake is being undervalued, I agree the Reds should not deal him. If he and a combination of minor leaguers is enough for a big bat in left field, I am a happy Reds' fan.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

Yes, but Arroyo might approve a trade to a contender in a bigger market.

From Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Cingrani, and Corcino, I'd guess that one or two will be traded this off-season.

Another possibility is Stephenson. Would hate to trade him. Could be necessary in a major deal.

Reds pitching depth is a major attribute. I don't think they have much to trade if they hold onto everyone from the group listed.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Yes, but Arroyo might approve a trade to a contender in a bigger market.

From Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Cingrani, and Corcino, I'd guess that one or two will be traded this off-season.

Another possibility is Stephenson. Would hate to trade him. Could be necessary in a major deal.

Reds pitching depth is a major attribute. I don't think they have much to trade if they hold onto everyone from the group listed.

Would much rather trade Corcino or Cingrani than Stephenson. Stephenson's timeline works out perfectly within the organization, not to mention his ceiling appears to be significantly higher than any other pitcher the Reds have in the minors. I would only put him in a deal that has someone like Stanton, Myers, or Justin Upton coming back.

Otherwise, use Leake and Corcino or Cingrani as the bait.

[Tadasimha]

A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.

[cinreds21]

Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall. Now, that does not solve your leadoff man problem, but it does give you a good middle of the order bat.

[chicoruiz]

Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall.

Do this, snag Victorino (or Bernadina), and add a few non-roster invitees and that would pretty much take care of the offseason as far as I'm concerned...seems do-able.

[Patrick Bateman]

I don't like Leake enough right now to trade a starter. Plus with injuries, I think having 6 is good. Put Leake in the bullpen or whatever.

[cinreds21]

I mean, Mike Leake does have options left. It would be kindof a ******y thing to do, but it is a possibility.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

Bailey for Josh Willingham would probably work. Minnesota is looking to improve its rotation and I think that would be a perfect fit. Maybe get the Twins to throw in Glen Perkins to add in a second lefty for the bullpen to go with Sean Marshall. Now, that does not solve your leadoff man problem, but it does give you a good middle of the order bat.

Josh Willingham would be a great short-term addition. He has been a very good hitter for the last five years. He would like be better than Myers for at least 2013, and if Stanton is off the table, Willingham may be one of the best available options. I just wonder when he is going to start to show signs of age. He will be 34 at the beginning of next year, and I don't know how long his prime will last and when he will start his decline. Either way, Willingham (and Glen Perkins) are great targets for the Reds.