Centerfield 2013

[OldXOhio]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Basically agree that the Reds should plan for Billy H in centerfield. I wouldn't drop a wad of money or a ton of prospects to fill CF.

But I just don't see why the Reds need to stick with Stubbs and Heisey even temporarily.

Why not, at minimum, trade one of them for a lefty hitter who gets on base, makes some contact and plays CF?

Even on a temporary basis, the current CF tandem just doesn't work. Heisey has zero plate discipline, his K/BB rate is very poor. Stubbs, more simply, has a major contact problem.

I really think Dexter Fowler is the solution, but only if a trade does not include Homer Bailey. If that's not possible, then I would agree that WJ seek a LH hitting CF until such time that (a) Hamilton is ready or (b) another option becomes available. There is nothing that says the Reds brass thinks Billy Hamilton will be ready to be the every day CF in 2013. I get not wanting to dive deep into the FA pool for a CF option, but don't understand why Hamilton has been christened as THE option for CF anytime soon. Drew Stubbs is clearly not the every day answer. How much are we willing to spend on a straight platoon partner in the coming years?

[dfs]

I think one of the lessons we can learn from watching Drew Stubbs is that prospects should be kept on the farm for as long as possible. Once they are up and "established" it becomes very tough to send them to AAA on a full time basis and it is very difficult to work on your game at the major league level.

Long way of saying, no matter how high I am on him, I don't count on Billy Hamilton.

I still think they will limp through with Drew Stubbs out there. Of course the problem with platooning Stubbs is you've now turned him into a 1/3 time player. You might as well look for a full time solution.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dfs

Of course the problem with platooning Stubbs is you've now turned him into a 1/3 time player. You might as well look for a full time solution.

Better an effective 1/3 time player rather than a full-time offensive sinkhole. Stubbs is a valuable asset as a part-timer. He's a liability as a full-timer.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by dfs

I think one of the lessons we can learn from watching Drew Stubbs is that prospects should be kept on the farm for as long as possible. Once they are up and "established" it becomes very tough to send them to AAA on a full time basis and it is very difficult to work on your game at the major league level.

Long way of saying, no matter how high I am on him, I don't count on Billy Hamilton.

I still think they will limp through with Drew Stubbs out there. Of course the problem with platooning Stubbs is you've now turned him into a 1/3 time player. You might as well look for a full time solution.

I completely disagree. I think what works or doesn't work for one player may not be the case for the next. I think the skills of a guy like Billy Hamilton translate quicker than that of a guy like Drew Stubbs. I don't think the problem with Stubbs is that he was brought up too quickly, I just think its that he's not a very good offensive player. If a player is good enough they will make it and have a good career. If they aren't they will make it and fall off. Example Mike Trout, he's what 21? Now he's only been around 1 year and who knows what he'll do in the future, but it appears he's the real deal.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Better an effective 1/3 time player rather than a full-time offensive sinkhole. Stubbs is a valuable asset as a part-timer. He's a liability as a full-timer.

Right. My point was that I would rather they either stick with Stubbs or find a replacement. I don't think finding a platoon partner to take 2/3 of the time in center will be cost effective compared to finding a replacement.

Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by SidneySlicker

I completely disagree. I think what works or doesn't work for one player may not be the case for the next. I think the skills of a guy like Billy Hamilton translate quicker than that of a guy like Drew Stubbs. I don't think the problem with Stubbs is that he was brought up too quickly, I just think its that he's not a very good offensive player. If a player is good enough they will make it and have a good career. If they aren't they will make it and fall off. Example Mike Trout, he's what 21? Now he's only been around 1 year and who knows what he'll do in the future, but it appears he's the real deal.

Agree. Keep in mind that Hamilton makes his living largely with speed. You don't wait forever to promote a speed player to the big leagues. If you wait, you may lose the player's best years on the bases.

I look for Hamilton to be the Reds CF by opening day 2014. I think this season needs a CF bridge to Billy.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Agree. Keep in mind that Hamilton makes his living largely with speed. You don't wait forever to promote a speed player to the big leagues. If you wait, you may lose the player's best years on the bases.

I look for Hamilton to be the Reds CF by opening day 2014. I think this season needs a CF bridge to Billy.

Agree. My hope for Hamilton is a Sept callup, and starting in 2014. I think they just want to get him acclimated in centerfield I think they believe his offense is far enough along.

[*BaseClogger*]

Thoughts on Ben Revere? He looks like Juan Pierre v2.0 to me, which in his prime isn't necessarily a bad thing...

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

Thoughts on Ben Revere? He looks like Juan Pierre v2.0 to me, which in his prime isn't necessarily a bad thing...

I don't see why we trade real pieces for a 24 year old speedy CF with no power when we have Billy Hamilton. If we're going to trade for someone, it should be a CF for this year only and/or someone who can play LF. Revere's stick cannot play in LF, especially if Hamilton is in CF.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dfs

Right. My point was that I would rather they either stick with Stubbs or find a replacement. I don't think finding a platoon partner to take 2/3 of the time in center will be cost effective compared to finding a replacement.

Stubbs making outrageous numbers of outs vs. RHPs is cost ineffective. A working platoon (and Stubbs is good vs. LHPs) would give the Reds production at the top of their lineup. It's game effective for sure and the only real cost concern should be whether it fits into the overall budget. Save some money here. Spend some money there.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I'm just flat out crazy, but I really have an odd feeling that Stubbs puts together a monster season this year. K's way down, BB's way up, BA way up, HR's career high, etc. It just seems to me in the past that he's performed at his best when he's got competition pushing him. Moving Hamilton to CF is going to do just that IMO.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Ellsbury is the guy I want assuming Ludwick signs.

He will likely cost less in talent than Fowler as he is a FA after the season. Reds can collect high draft picks with a qualifying offer he is sure to reject, and plug Billy Hamilton in for the next five years.

If Ellsbury could be had for Leake, Stubbs, and a C-level prospect, pull the trigger Walt.

Second choice would probably be DeJesus for a one-year platoon with Stubbs.

I'm leery of Ellsbury. The thing he has going for him is he needs a big season to get himself a big contract. Marks against him are that he's injury-prone and he hasn't been a consistent producer at the plate. He's a real crapshoot.

I'd be hesitant to part with Leake for him. I subscribe to the notion that Leake's best years are in front of him and, given that he's been a solid pitcher to date, that's a guy I don't want to part with for a one-year fix. Make it Corcino instead and I warm up to the deal a whole lot more.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by M2

I'm leery of Ellsbury. The thing he has going for him is he needs a big season to get himself a big contract. Marks against him are that he's injury-prone and he hasn't been a consistent producer at the plate. He's a real crapshoot.

I'd be hesitant to part with Leake for him. I subscribe to the notion that Leake's best years are in front of him and, given that he's been a solid pitcher to date, that's a guy I don't want to part with for a one-year fix. Make it Corcino instead and I warm up to the deal a whole lot more.

Just listening and watching some coverage of the Winter Meetings, I've heard it said that Leake has little value coming off last year.

Not sure it is correct, but everyone seems much more focused on Bailey, who the Reds likely won't trade.

I don't know if the Bosox would want Leake. And it may just be a bad time to trade Leake, coming off a sub-par season. Not sure the Reds would give up Corcino for one year of Ellsbury either.

Just a guess, I don't see Ellsbury coming over to the Reds.

[Benihana]

Here is the thing about trading (or not trading) pitchers:

IF the reports are accurate that the Reds are exploring LTCs with both Bailey and Latos, something has got to give.

1. Chapman is moving to the rotation (95% likely)
2. Cueto, Latos, and Bailey are all locked up for at least 2+ years.
3. Arroyo is likely gone after 2013, but you have three guys to replace him in Leake, Corcino and Cingrani, all of whom already are or will be major league ready at some point this season, meaning you can't/shouldn't just sit on them until a spot opens up sometime in 2015 or 2016- those spots should be earmarked for guys like Stephenson who are still 2-3 years off.

So what gives? Why do people want to squat on 8 major league ready SP when we have significant holes to fill in the OF?
I can live with the argument of not "selling low" on Leake, that we might need him to complement some of Chapman's innings for this year. But if that's the case, why not "sell high" on one of the pitching prospects like Corcino and Cingrani? There are only so many innings to pitch in a given season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Here is the thing about trading (or not trading) pitchers:

IF the reports are accurate that the Reds are exploring LTCs with both Bailey and Latos, something has got to give.

1. Chapman is moving to the rotation (95% likely)
2. Cueto, Latos, and Bailey are all locked up for at least 2+ years.
3. Arroyo is likely gone after 2013, but you have three guys to replace him in Leake, Corcino and Cingrani, all of whom already are or will be major league ready at some point this season, meaning you can't/shouldn't just sit on them until a spot opens up sometime in 2015 or 2016- those spots should be earmarked for guys like Stephenson who are still 2-3 years off.

So what gives? Why do people want to squat on 8 major league ready SP when we have significant holes to fill in the OF?
I can live with the argument of not "selling low" on Leake, that we might need him to complement some of Chapman's innings for this year. But if that's the case, why not "sell high" on one of the pitching prospects like Corcino and Cingrani? There are only so many innings to pitch in a given season.

Several things.

1. You're ignoring injuries.
2. It's far from certain that Cingrani even stays a starter.
3. We have no clue how Corcino will fare in the majors.
4. We have no clue how Chapman will fare as a starter. He bombed the first go-round.
5. I don't think anybody is advocating holding onto EVERY pitching prospect. But trading Bailey right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2013. Trading Leake right now is a bad idea as it will drastically weaken our rotation for 2014. Cueto becomes a free agent in 2015 I believe...just in time for Stephenson.

IMO, one season of Leake playing the Cincy-to-Louisville shuttle will not hurt him. It keeps him on a starters schedule and further increases his experience. Corcino/Cingrani don't look to be ready this year. But if the right deal comes along...I'm fine with trading one of them. Stephenson looks to be the heir apparent for when Cueto leaves just like Leake is the heir apparent for when Arroyo leaves.

People act like we have 8 starting pitchers right now...when in fact we have 5 1/2. Chapman won't go all season. Corcino/Cingrani are most likely not ready but we could use them if we have to (due to injuries). If the right trade comes along, fine...but I see no reason to "shop" them.