Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by 757690

Here's how i look at the trade:

Shin-Soo Choo is very good at baseball. Drew Stubbs isn't. If that upgrade costs the Reds a good glove, suspect bat minor league SS, then I make that trade every day.

100% agreed. Just don't stop with this trade. Address the hole it created.

[M2]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Add in the phrase "if he stays healthy" to your last sentence. If he doesn't...we have ZERO fallback.

So you'd rather have a backup SS than a starting CF?

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by M2

Yeah, but you can't counter with anything like 100 runs or even get close to that neighborhood, which is the point.

We're doing straight addition on how many runs Choo is going to add to the lineup. Yet the lineup was massively inefficient last season, leaving 81 runs it theoretically earned in the RC column on the table. Choo fixes the greatest inefficiency in the lineup, replacing Stubbs and banishing Cozart to the bottom of the batting order.

Choo + scoring efficiency (Choo-aided to a large extent) = an offense ready to take some names and kick some butt.

boom. case closed.

Hope he can track down balls in the gap. I think he could be average at that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

Doug I'm not being snarky here, I want your honest opinion. Do you really think Didi can hit well enough to be an every day starter at short? Do you think he can outperform Cozart with the bat?

Yes and yes. Let's work under these presumptions that I have about Gregorius. He can hit you 10-15 home runs in a season (not today, but maybe in a year and moving forward). He will walk 6-7% of the time. He will strike out 15% of the time. He will hit you 25 doubles and 5 triples.

Math suggests then that he would hit roughly this:

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
600	546	150	25	5	13	39	90	5	5	5	.275	.326	.410	.306

In the above scenario I gave him a 6.5% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate. That is the kind of guy I see him as at the plate. Not today. But in the near future. At the MLB level.

[757690]

Originally Posted by M2

So you'd rather have a backup SS than a starting CF?

Worrying about this trade because it left the Reds without a decent backup SS (which I don't think it did) is like complaining that you convinced Mila Kunis to go to prom with you, but it resulted in you missing the final episode of Chuck.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

Yeah, but you can't counter with anything like 100 runs or even get close to that neighborhood, which is the point.

We're doing straight addition on how many runs Choo is going to add to the lineup. Yet the lineup was massively inefficient last season, leaving 81 runs it theoretically earned in the RC column on the table. Choo fixes the greatest inefficiency in the lineup, replacing Stubbs and banishing Cozart to the bottom of the batting order.

Choo + scoring efficiency (Choo-aided to a large extent) = an offense ready to take some names and kick some butt.

I never argued that he wasn't an overall addition. Simply that how much of an addition, we can't be sure about. I don't know that I want to give him credit for taking away stupidity from his manager who would have hit other players out of their spot. That isn't on him. It is on him that he will cost his pitchers pitches and thus innings all year long though. There isn't the right math for it, and overall I believe he creates a + amount of value for the team. I just don't know how much it is going to be and something like WAR isn't going to tell me.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I just don't know how much it is going to be and something like WAR isn't going to tell me.

That's where I completely agree.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Just not sure a .288 OBP, 1 win defender somehow works out to being a 3 win player. Doesn't quite add up in my head. Yeah, he had more power than other shortstops, but OBP>>>SLG and his OBP was really poor. Again, I could totally be wrong here, but that is just how I feel about it.

2012

Cozart OBP: .288
Mlb ss OBP: .309

Cozart OPS: .687
Mlb SS OpS: .685

Doug, do you need to recalibrate your scale? Is Cozart that much of an offensive drag?

[membengal]

All I know is Walt today said with Cozart they are set at SS for 5 or 6 years. They are moving Hamilton to CF. They dealt Didi. So my conclusion is that the Reds are more than comfortable with what Cozart is. And so am I, by extension. The power was legit and a nice sweetener, and if he can maintain that, even an OBP around .290 isn't really an issue on this team as currently constructed. He hits 8th and turns into JJ Hardy, sign me up.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

2012

Cozart OBP: .288
Mlb ss OBP: .309

Cozart OPS: .687
Mlb SS OpS: .685

Doug, do you need to recalibrate your scale? Is Cozart that much of an offensive drag?

Well, OBP is about twice as valuable as SLG is, so being 21 points worse there is a lot of lost value that you don't see when solely looking at OPS which weighs OBP and SLG as the same.

And my issue is that Cozart is a little below average offensively right now. But what happens if he takes even a tiny step back? Then we have a real problem with no internal solution to even consider thinking about. People were ready to run Stubs out of town for years because of his offense and he was considerably stronger offensively than Cozart has been.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, OBP is about twice as valuable as SLG is, so being 21 points worse there is a lot of lost value that you don't see when solely looking at OPS which weighs OBP and SLG as the same.

And my issue is that Cozart is a little below average offensively right now. But what happens if he takes even a tiny step back? Then we have a real problem with no internal solution to even consider thinking about. People were ready to run Stubs out of town for years because of his offense and he was considerably stronger offensively than Cozart has been.

The correlation difference between OPS and 1.8*OBP+SLG, which is the more effective measure, is really only about .02. Hence, it doesn't change the end result very much that Cozart was essentially a league average shortstop with the bat.

[Bill]

Cozart of course played college ball creating a bit of drag on his development age wise.

Surely Cozart will gain from a year of big league experience regardless of current age but are there studies of average improvement in the second year sorted by age for those playing regularly? I would assume the player that reaches the bigs earlier in age will be blessed with more talent and therefore show a bigger jump but I expect that a 26 year old's second year around will not show a nonsignificant difference in hitting stats.

[Cooper]

i ahven't read all the postings - if someone already said this then i apologize.

GABP appears to not have deep power alleys -thus it took away from Stubbs ability to show off his best asset -running a ball down in the gap (maybe that's why it's a great home run park). If this is the case, seems like it would be possible to get away with a CFer who doesn't have great range

Good management wires around people's limitations. Baker's limitation (though small) is hitting a non-hitter first. If the trade wires around that limitation -that's great planning by upper management. The job of any manager -at any level is to wire around limitations and promote strengths. Great move on 3 or 4 levels by GM.

[Vottomatic]

Holy smokes. All I ever hear about Jay Bruce is "he's young"......"he's developing"......"he's only had a couple of years......he's gonna get better every year".........

Then suddenly with Cozart, who had a very good season for a rookie SS........it's like some people think he's hit his ceiling and won't improve. What he have.......something like 16 HR's???? He was awesome defensively. Geez. Made me forget who even played SS the last few years.......I seriously can't remember.

Then there's Gregorius. There's nothing in his minor league stats that stand out and say he's going to be a really good or even average major leaguer.

Reds won this trade hands down.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Holy smokes. All I ever hear about Jay Bruce is "he's young"......"he's developing"......"he's only had a couple of years......he's gonna get better every year".........

Then suddenly with Cozart, who had a very good season for a rookie SS........it's like some people think he's hit his ceiling and won't improve. What he have.......something like 16 HR's???? He was awesome defensively. Geez. Made me forget who even played SS the last few years.......I seriously can't remember.

Then there's Gregorius. There's nothing in his minor league stats that stand out and say he's going to be a really good or even average major leaguer.

Reds won this trade hands down.

No one said the Reds didn't win it. No one.

A lot of things in Gregorius minor league career suggests he will be an average Major Leaguer.

Jay Bruce is younger than Zack Cozart by a year and a half. His talent is on an entirely different playing field, particularly at the plate. There is a lot more room for growth with a guy like Bruce than there is a guy like Cozart. Scouts have wondered aloud since day one whether he would ever be more than a .240 hitter in the Majors.

I guess you can say Cozart had a good rookie season if you want. But most rookies aren't nearly as old as Cozart is, so that doesn't really tell us much.