Who is Redszone's #11 prospect? 2013

[texasdave]

1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez
8) Ismael Guillon
9) Yorman Rodriguez
10) Tanner Rahier

[dougdirt]

I jumped onto the Chad Rogers train here.

He has a good fastball, a good slider, good control and groundball tendencies. He may not stick as a starter, but at the very least he has shown he has the stamina to do so and adding a change up is easier than adding a breaking ball. If he can't do that, he can be a very good reliever. Real safe bet here for me.

[Superdude]

I went Brean, but then I realized Langfield was still on the list. I like his stuff a lot.

[marcshoe]

Went with Soto again, and I hope he turns out to be more than another Francisco. Langfield's an awfully good choice, though. Don't like Lutz as much, really.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by marcshoe

Went with Soto again, and I hope he turns out to be more than another Francisco. Langfield's an awfully good choice, though. Don't like Lutz as much, really.

I wouldn't mind if he turned into another Francisco. Juan netted the Reds a pretty damn solid pitcher who is under team control for the next six years (J. J. Hoover). If the Reds can flip Soto for a guy who can contribute down the stretch in 2013 (a LOOGY for the bullpen or a stud defensive CF for the bench perhaps?), I'd be more than happy.

[The DARK]

I considered Gelalich, but went Reynoso instead after reading the scouting report. At this point, I'll take whatever upside I can find with most prospects, and it's encouraging to hear he actually has a fighting chance of making use of his tools.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by marcshoe

Went with Soto again, and I hope he turns out to be more than another Francisco. Langfield's an awfully good choice, though. Don't like Lutz as much, really.

Yep, I did Soto too.
A guy that might be closing to arriving as a backup player seems to have the edge over the lotto tickets remaining.
I can understand why people vote based on ceiling and optimism though.
Kind of all guesswork at this point

[mdccclxix]

BA has Lutz as the best power hitter in the minors for the Reds. Not getting the Soto over Lutz argument.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

BA has Lutz as the best power hitter in the minors for the Reds. Not getting the Soto over Lutz argument.

What's not to get?

Soto is the same age, has performed at higher levels in the minors, has a modicum of positional flexibility (in an emergency), and has a better statistical track record. Soto already had a monster season at AA under his belt when he was Lutz's age. Lutz was awful after he got called up to AA and is going to have to repeat that level as a 24 year old.

Just because Soto sucked last year doesn't mean his talent has evaporated. He had a similar season back in 2009 when he struggled in his first exposure to high A-ball. Two years later, he scorched AA for a 904 OPS as a 22 year old. Some guys take a year to get their bearings. I expect big things in 2013 out of Soto at Louisville.

[mdccclxix]

Power vs power Lutz wins. As a RHB I don't think Soto will be able to battle MLB RHP as well as Lutz, which gives Lutz a better shot at making it.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Power vs power Lutz wins.

How do you figure Lutz wins in power versus power?

Soto's career high is 31 homers, and he did it in AA as a 22 year old. Meanwhile, Lutz was a year older that in his first exposure to AA and posted a sub-400 slugging percentage. Sure, Lutz has hit the ball pretty well as an old guy in A ball (20 HR at Dayton in 2011 and 17 last season), but ever there he hasn't come close to Soto's career best. Lutz might have more 'batting practice power' than Soto, but in games Neftali is the better HR hitter.

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

As a RHB I don't think Soto will be able to battle MLB RHP as well as Lutz, which gives Lutz a better shot at making it.

Meh.

Teams need lefty killers too.

Honestly, I don't think either one of these guys profiles as a starting 1B on a contending team, certainly not on the Reds. Their value is as trade bait, and I think Soto is the guy who is more likely to net the Reds a big return. He's primed for a big year repeating AAA while Lutz still has yet to prove he can hit in the high minors.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

How do you figure Lutz wins in power versus power?

Soto's career high is 31 homers, and he did it in AA as a 22 year old. Meanwhile, Lutz was a year older that in his first exposure to AA and posted a sub-400 slugging percentage. Sure, Lutz has hit the ball pretty well as an old guy in A ball (20 HR at Dayton in 2011 and 17 last season), but ever there he hasn't come close to Soto's career best. Lutz might have more 'batting practice power' than Soto, but in games Neftali is the better HR hitter.



Meh.

Teams need lefty killers too.

Honestly, I don't think either one of these guys profiles as a starting 1B on a contending team, certainly not on the Reds. Their value is as trade bait, and I think Soto is the guy who is more likely to net the Reds a big return. He's primed for a big year repeating AAA while Lutz still has yet to prove he can hit in the high minors.

I agree both players would struggle to find a starting job, even on the Astros, IMO. If I'm taking a power guy to fill the bench, I'd want a lefty bat though. Both players struggled in their promotions to a higher level, so we'll see who can adjust next year. For now, I'll go with BA and agree that Lutz is the best power hitting prospect, which probably considers more than batting practice power. I think that Rhinehart guy could get some mention for that even.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I agree both players would struggle to find a starting job, even on the Astros, IMO. If I'm taking a power guy to fill the bench, I'd want a lefty bat though. Both players struggled in their promotions to a higher level, so we'll see who can adjust next year. For now, I'll go with BA and agree that Lutz is the best power hitting prospect, which probably considers more than batting practice power. I think that Rhinehart guy could get some mention for that even.

I think both guys have potential as a starting 1B on a bad team, a platoon guy on a mediocre team, or as a quality bench bat on a good team. The hope is that one of those bad or mediocre teams fall in love with Soto/Lutz and make the Reds a lucrative offer to acquire his services.

As far as which guy I want on the Reds bench? Neither. In the AL you might be able to get away with carrying a guy who only plays 1B on the bench, but with the Reds in the NL and the best hitter in baseball holding down 1B, there really isn't room for either guy on the Reds bench. Both of them are trade bait and nothing more.

In regards to the BA 'best power' assessment, that is only one guys opinion. I'm sure there are other scouts out there who will tell you Soto has better power. Also, we have no idea how close that scout perceived them to be. He might have rated Soto as dead-even with Lutz, but went with Lutz because he is perceived to have more room for improvement due to his relative inexperience. Either way, I don't put much stock in those 'best in the system' lists without hearing the scouts reasoning.

[klw]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I think that Rhinehart guy could get some mention for that even.

I am not sure but I think Rhinehart is no longer in the system.

Edit: He was released last August.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...nehart&page=23