Who is Redszone's #13 prospect? 2013

[Red Swagger]

So obviously the Reds are high enough on Rogers to where he is invited to ST. Sam LeCure type with a better fastball and slider? Drafted in the 28th round, right?

Rogers
Freeman
W De La Rosa
Barnhart
Hayes
LaMarre
Lutz
Ravin
Partch
Lotzkar
B Greene

All could make it to AAA Louisville at some point this year?

Nevin Ashley, I had to do some research on this guy, seems like talent is there, drafted in 6th RD by TB, could pair with Corky to C in AAA, till Barnhart comes up. Injuries last year, didn't play much, but still hit .271

[757690]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

That didn't really answer the question though. What is it that Lutz isn't good at right now, things that are holding him back, that are a direct result of him beginning to play baseball at age 15?

Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.

[Edd Roush]

I went with Reynoso for pure upside. I can see the arguments for Rogers. Not sure that I understand the Lutz love after an underwhelming 2012.

[klw]

Where is Lotzkar these days in terms of health? My memory of him from last season is not strong.

[OGB]

Originally Posted by 757690

Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.

I've been following this debate and am on the side of those that think Lutz's late start is overblown at this point. As far as pitch recognition is concerned, how many non fastballs does a kid see from age 5 to 14?

[OGB]

I also like Sharky at this juncture. I think we'll see really strong seasons out of both him and Barnhardt. I like his approach on the mound. With the Reds perceived SP depth for several years, I could see Chad utilized as a bullpen arm in a few seasons not out of necessity, but lack of oppurtunity as a starter. I could then see him bouncing between SP and RP until he finds his niche, ala Sam Lecure.

That just made me think, does anyone know what Matt Maloney is doing, and if anyone has tried to make him a bullpen lefty?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by OGB

I've been following this debate and am on the side of those that think Lutz's late start is overblown at this point. As far as pitch recognition is concerned, how many non fastballs does a kid see from age 5 to 14?

My thoughts exactly. It's a whole different ballgame when guys are throwing 90+ with a slew of breaking balls, and Lutz has been immersed in that challenge as long as any other prospect at this point. And I still think we would be seeing marked improvements in this area if it was an experience issue.

[Kc61]

Whether his late start is relevant or not, I kind of like Lutz as a prospect. He's a big guy with plenty of power. He has OPS'd over .800 several times in his career. His OBP dropped some last season, but he did have a .561 SLG at Bakersfield.

Then, after a rough patch upon his movement up to AA, Lutz went to the AFL and was sensational. 1.004 OPS in a short stint.

My concern about him is that his OBP dropped at the higher levels so far. It was .325 at Bakersfield and .315 at AA. So he's not a top ten guy, but he does have a fine minor league record.

I can see Chad Rogers as a competitor for number 13 too. His K rate has dropped througout his career, though, and I'm concerned it might be in the 5 range at the major league level. It could be hard for him to succeed as a 5 K per nine inning pitcher in the majors.

I voted for Lutz because he's had several minor league seasons of high OPS production and, yes, I was impressed by his hot AFL stint. But it's really tough to distinguish between some of these guys. Rogers, Reynoso, Mejias-Brean, all make sense here as well.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Red Swagger

So obviously the Reds are high enough on Rogers to where he is invited to ST. Sam LeCure type with a better fastball and slider? Drafted in the 28th round, right?

Rogers
Freeman
W De La Rosa
Barnhart
Hayes
LaMarre
Lutz
Ravin
Partch
Lotzkar
B Greene

All could make it to AAA Louisville at some point this year?

Nevin Ashley, I had to do some research on this guy, seems like talent is there, drafted in 6th RD by TB, could pair with Corky to C in AAA, till Barnhart comes up. Injuries last year, didn't play much, but still hit .271

Lecure K'd more guys in the minor leagues. 7.9 Ks per nine innings overall and slightly higher at AAA. And while Lecure was "only" 6'1", he was still more projectable than Rogers.

Sam Lecure also had some dominant stretches in the high minor leagues. I don't know where the idea comes from that Chad Rogers has a "better fastball and slider" than Lecure.

Lecure is not chopped liver, he was a successful minor league pitcher, and shows very good stuff in the Reds bullpen. I'd be thrilled if Rogers turns out as well as Sam did.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Lecure K'd more guys in the minor leagues. 7.9 Ks per nine innings overall and slightly higher at AAA. And while Lecure was "only" 6'1", he was still more projectable than Rogers.

Sam Lecure also had some dominant stretches in the high minor leagues. I don't know where the idea comes from that Chad Rogers has a "better fastball and slider" than Lecure.

Lecure is not chopped liver, he was a successful minor league pitcher, and shows very good stuff in the Reds bullpen. I'd be thrilled if Rogers turns out as well as Sam did.

The idea comes from the fact that Chad Rogers has a better fastball than LeCure, for sure, and also has a darn good slider (so does LeCure, so I don't know who exactly has the better one, but both are quite good). LeCure is a tad taller, but he wasn't any more projectable. Rogers has better pure stuff than LeCure has. I could see Rogers having a better career.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by 757690

Pitch recognition. That's the biggest separater between hitting prospects. They all have their swing down (or should), it's now a matter of knowing what to swing at and what not to swing at. By far the hardest part of hitting pitching. I would imagine that Lutz is miles behind most players at his level on this, as experience is the only method for improvement.

You aren't seeing too many offspeed pitches in the time he missed. You absolutely aren't seeing any kind of quality offspeed pitches at those ages. I don't know, I just don't see a lack of experience through the age of 14 holding back his pitch recognition skills. And as studies have shown time and time again, if you don't have it by an early age, you probably aren't ever going to have it. Why that is, I don't have a complete idea (maybe it is due to it being more about eyesight than skillset?).

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The idea comes from the fact that Chad Rogers has a better fastball than LeCure, for sure, and also has a darn good slider (so does LeCure, so I don't know who exactly has the better one, but both are quite good). LeCure is a tad taller, but he wasn't any more projectable. Rogers has better pure stuff than LeCure has. I could see Rogers having a better career.

Lecure gets more out of his stuff than anyone I've ever seen though. Rogers could theoretically be better given his fastball cranks a few ticks higher, but I wouldn't say that's an easy ticket to surpassing what Lecure's done. If he ends up in the pen, saying he's demonstrably better than Lecure is practically saying he'll be a closer type arm.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Lecure gets more out of his stuff than anyone I've ever seen though. Rogers could theoretically be better given his fastball cranks a few ticks higher, but I wouldn't say that's an easy ticket to surpassing what Lecure's done. If he ends up in the pen, saying he's demonstrably better than Lecure is practically saying he'll be a closer type arm.

Out of the bullpen, Rogers was 92-95, touching a notch higher with an above-average slider. Plenty of guys have closed with similar stuff. It isn't the exact profile of a closer, but it is a profile of a guy who could close.

LeCure does get the most out of his stuff though. But the guy doesn't average 90 MPH with his fastball. Rogers is 90-93 as a starter and he controls it quite well.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Out of the bullpen, Rogers was 92-95, touching a notch higher with an above-average slider. Plenty of guys have closed with similar stuff. It isn't the exact profile of a closer, but it is a profile of a guy who could close.

LeCure does get the most out of his stuff though. But the guy doesn't average 90 MPH with his fastball. Rogers is 90-93 as a starter and he controls it quite well.

I didn't realize he threw quite that hard. What do you make of his K rate? It's not bad considering the rest of his game, but do you see him maintaining that or slipping down to Leake levels as he moves forward? He's definitely an intriguing arm the more I dig into his numbers.

[dougdirt]

I doubt his strikeout rate goes Leake/Arroyo, even if he remains a starter. If you put him in the bullpen, I see an 8+ K/9.