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Johnny Fan
05-16-2013, 12:42 PM
I know the Reds won't, no matter what, but given how the Reds have done so far this seaosn without Chapman really having a key role in that, if the Reds did decide to trade him, what would be fair value if you did a straight up trade of him for player X.

Vottomatic
05-16-2013, 12:44 PM
Giancarlo Stanton. :D ;) :p :laugh: :lol:

Old school 1983
05-16-2013, 01:56 PM
Giancarlo Stanton. :D ;) :p :laugh: :lol:

Honestly it'd have to be someone of stud value. Stanton trout Harper price or I'm not interested. Even then i'd be highly cautious if that player was Stanton. Add Miguel Cabrera too.

Old school 1983
05-16-2013, 02:10 PM
Chapmans value just doesn't come from his innings pitched or his number of saves. I think the save stat is a flawed stat when used to determine closer performance so it's flawed to say so and so converted this many saves so he's equal to chapman.

Having him at the end of the pen makes the entire pen stronger and sets up a nasty boys type of situation with he broxton and Marshall in the 7th 8th and 9th.
I think chapman should be placed in the most high leverage inning for example the heart if the order due up in the 8th and lesser guys in the 9th. Let chapman handle the better hitters and broxton close in the traditional sense.

Chapman also has an intimidation/ demoralization factor going for him too. He comes in you know the game is probably over and as the other team you press earlier. Now if say for example broxton or Hoover is coming in you still have more of a hope or chance to score.

Now ill say that I wanted chapman to close this year because I think it uses him in a known position of strength in a year where the reds are going for it. But having said that I wanted him to start in 2011 and I think the reds lost a golden opportunity to do that then. Also with arroyo leaving after next year in all probability, it brings up the option for him to start again.

So because of all these things I think chapman has massive value.

MillerTime58
05-16-2013, 02:29 PM
If I had known, in 2010, that through the 2013 season Chapman would be used exclusively out of the bullpen, then I would have heavily advocated that we trade him.

Vottomatic
05-16-2013, 02:52 PM
If I had known, in 2010, that through the 2013 season Chapman would be used exclusively out of the bullpen, then I would have heavily advocated that we trade him.

I would shop him after the season is over. Doesn't mean you have to trade him.

I don't see him ever being anything but a Closer for the Reds as long as Dusty is manager.

I can see some other team, possibly a rebuilding one, giving Chapman a chance to become a starter, thus increasing his value.

I still think Closer by committee would work fine for this Reds team. The problem is with Dusty........CFer bats first, SS bats second, Marshall pitches the 7th, Broxton pitches the 8th and Chapman pitches the 9th. There is no variance or deviating from this pattern. Frustrating.

Lecure is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He has nasty stuff. Not power or speed. But he has a whole arsenal of pitches to frustrate hitters.

Given time, I think Hoover could close too.

Old school 1983
05-16-2013, 03:16 PM
I would shop him after the season is over. Doesn't mean you have to trade him.

I don't see him ever being anything but a Closer for the Reds as long as Dusty is manager.

I can see some other team, possibly a rebuilding one, giving Chapman a chance to become a starter, thus increasing his value.

I still think Closer by committee would work fine for this Reds team. The problem is with Dusty........CFer bats first, SS bats second, Marshall pitches the 7th, Broxton pitches the 8th and Chapman pitches the 9th. There is no variance or deviating from this pattern. Frustrating.

Lecure is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He has nasty stuff. Not power or speed. But he has a whole arsenal of pitches to frustrate hitters.

Given time, I think Hoover could close too.

I have no problem shopping him just to test the water. I want stud quality or elite prospects in return though if the trigger is pulled in a trade.

Vottomatic
05-16-2013, 03:23 PM
I have no problem shopping him just to test the water. I want stud quality or elite prospects in return though if the trigger is pulled in a trade.

Obviously you don't trade him for a bunch of junk. :laugh:

But seriously, I'd shop lots of my main players every year and see if some GM is dumb enough to offer the sun, moon, and stars for them. You might just be tempted to let one of your stars go if the offer is ridiculously in your favor. :laugh:

Old school 1983
05-16-2013, 07:32 PM
Obviously you don't trade him for a bunch of junk. :laugh:

But seriously, I'd shop lots of my main players every year and see if some GM is dumb enough to offer the sun, moon, and stars for them. You might just be tempted to let one of your stars go if the offer is ridiculously in your favor. :laugh:

Agreed. Especially if the return can help the team more than what you'd be giving.

IABucFan
05-16-2013, 08:17 PM
This is just one outsider's perspective, but take it for what it's worth. Chapman is a stud, arguably the best in MLB. But, IMHO, baseball as a whole WAY overvalues closers. Relief pitchers are volatile as a rule. And, they, almost by definition, only pitch three outs at a time, a few times a week. This is even more pronounced with closers because managers manage to the save stat.

So, the closer can pitch in a game when you are ahead by 1, 2, or 3 runs in the ninth inning. But, if you are tied in the 8th inning and the other team has 2-3-4 up, the "book" says you can't use your closer.

What I'm trying to say is that if I were trading for Chapman, I would not give up much, not based on who he is, but based on what he does. It's nothing against him. I'd have the same rule with respect to any closer. Starting pitchers and everyday players are of much more value.

That said, for whatever reason MLB managers and GMs don't think like this. So, realistically, you guys could probably command a king's ransom for Chapman. The Bucs got Melancon and three average to slightly above average prospects for Hanrahan (that trade didn't work out too well for Boston) so you guys could probably get a decent reliever to take Chap's spot in the bullpen, and two A level prospects. I can't see anybody giving up a full-time player for him though. Even the Marlins, who will probably try to move Stanton, can, frankly, get a lot more value that what Chapman will give them, and let's face it, that's not a team that will be in need of a closer any time soon.

Vottomatic
05-17-2013, 12:30 PM
This is just one outsider's perspective, but take it for what it's worth. Chapman is a stud, arguably the best in MLB. But, IMHO, baseball as a whole WAY overvalues closers. Relief pitchers are volatile as a rule. And, they, almost by definition, only pitch three outs at a time, a few times a week. This is even more pronounced with closers because managers manage to the save stat.

So, the closer can pitch in a game when you are ahead by 1, 2, or 3 runs in the ninth inning. But, if you are tied in the 8th inning and the other team has 2-3-4 up, the "book" says you can't use your closer.

What I'm trying to say is that if I were trading for Chapman, I would not give up much, not based on who he is, but based on what he does. It's nothing against him. I'd have the same rule with respect to any closer. Starting pitchers and everyday players are of much more value.

That said, for whatever reason MLB managers and GMs don't think like this. So, realistically, you guys could probably command a king's ransom for Chapman. The Bucs got Melancon and three average to slightly above average prospects for Hanrahan (that trade didn't work out too well for Boston) so you guys could probably get a decent reliever to take Chap's spot in the bullpen, and two A level prospects. I can't see anybody giving up a full-time player for him though. Even the Marlins, who will probably try to move Stanton, can, frankly, get a lot more value that what Chapman will give them, and let's face it, that's not a team that will be in need of a closer any time soon.

I wouldn't trade Chapman to some other club as a Closer. I'd present him as a future starter that they can develop.

A lot of people in MLB think he should be starting. So go find that GM that thinks Chapman would make a great starter, and use that to get something good in return.

SpiritofStLouis
05-17-2013, 04:16 PM
You almost never get equal value for relief pitchers, even one as dominant as Chapman.

They just don't have the value of starters or position players.

IABucFan
05-17-2013, 05:22 PM
I wouldn't trade Chapman to some other club as a Closer. I'd present him as a future starter that they can develop.

A lot of people in MLB think he should be starting. So go find that GM that thinks Chapman would make a great starter, and use that to get something good in return.

Yes, but my response to that, if I were an opposing GM, would be something along the lines of this. "OK Walt. You say he's good enough to start. Why then, isn't he starting for you? If he's not good enough to start for your team, what makes you think he's good enough to start for mine, and thus, why should I send you an A level player back in return? As far as I'm concerned, he's a relief pitcher. A darn good one, to be sure, but a relief pitcher still. He may become a starter someday, but he's not right now. So, my offer is another, younger, reliever, and two B+ prospects, take it or leave it."

Johnny Fan
05-17-2013, 05:28 PM
Yes, but my response to that, if I were an opposing GM, would be something along the lines of this. "OK Walt. You say he's good enough to start. Why then, isn't he starting for you? If he's not good enough to start for your team, what makes you think he's good enough to start for mine, and thus, why should I send you an A level player back in return? As far as I'm concerned, he's a relief pitcher. A darn good one, to be sure, but a relief pitcher still. He may become a starter someday, but he's not right now. So, my offer is another, younger, reliever, and two B+ prospects, take it or leave it."

Given his age, ability and history, I doubt many other GM's don't think he can't be a high quality starter material...

Vottomatic
05-17-2013, 05:30 PM
Yes, but my response to that, if I were an opposing GM, would be something along the lines of this. "OK Walt. You say he's good enough to start. Why then, isn't he starting for you? If he's not good enough to start for your team, what makes you think he's good enough to start for mine, and thus, why should I send you an A level player back in return? As far as I'm concerned, he's a relief pitcher. A darn good one, to be sure, but a relief pitcher still. He may become a starter someday, but he's not right now. So, my offer is another, younger, reliever, and two B+ prospects, take it or leave it."

I never said Walt believed it. I said to go find one of the many GM's strongly in the belief that Chapman will be a good starter.

mikdavrut
05-17-2013, 11:38 PM
I've been torn on the whole "should Chapman start in 2013 or continue to close" issue (which of course, we all know which decision was made). I, like another poster mentioned earlier in this thread was ALL about the Reds making Chapman a starter last season or the season prior. At this point, it's not necessarily too late, but for the Reds (and w/Dusty), it is certainly getting to that point.

And though he HAS looked a bit more human here in the very recent past, he went through a very "human looking" clip last season as well (although, last season, it seemed more control & the past game or two, the control has not been all that bad, he has just been looking more hit-able).

Broxton needs to be used more IMO....that guy just doesn't look good at all IMO when he goes too long in-between usage (not that that is an uncommon theme among bullpen arms).

Value trade wise? I have no idea. What do some of you think Mariano Rivera would have commanded for the Yankees in a trade during his prime? I'm inclined to believe that a team like the Marlins would not give up a player like Stanton in a 1 for 1 trade personally. But I really do not know. Not to mention, in this particular scenario, it IS the Marlins we are talking about here and Loria can do some rather head-scratching things from time to time to say the least.

I also wonder if Stanton himself is actually the player that he appeared to be based on last year, or if last year was more of a "career year" for him? I just don't know (and I am NOT a "stat guy", so anyone that is, feel free to enlighten me on that particular issue if you so desire).