Trade Arroyo Back to the Sox?

[Pacman Fever]

Bronson Arroyo looks to be a cap casualty after 2013, especially if we resign Choo, which I am praying happens.

"Bronson Arroyo is entering the final year of his Reds contract and the veteran realizes it could be his last year in Cincinnati, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports. "When you have a team as we do, where everyone is coming into their own kind of at the same time, and add the fact we have a couple of monster deals already in place, it's going to be tough for me to stick around here if I have [a] successful season," Arroyo said."

I know that it's normally a crazy idea to trade a solid SP at the 1/4 mark of the season. However, Mike Leake has been looking extremely solid, and the Reds have Tony Cingrani waiting in the wings. Having watched Cingrani's 6 ML starts, he appears 100% ready to "make the leap" and hold down our #4/#5 starter spot this year.

With LF Ryan Ludwick perhaps out for the season, it's no secret that the Red's could use a right-handed/power-hitting/left-fielder in the lineup (to bat either #2 or #4). This would help the team in a number of ways (including allowing us to drop Zack Cozart back down into his appropriate #7/#8 hole).

Now, we must keep in mind that due to Arroyo's "10 and 5 Rights" (Players who have accumulated ten years of major league service time can't be traded without their permission if they have spent the last five years with their current club). Also, If the Reds trade the right-hander, deferred payments would be voided and paid up-front by his new team.

"Bronson Arroyo tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that he enjoyed pitching for the Red Sox and wouldn't mind returning: "Even though I can safely say that I’ve cemented myself in Cincinnati for a while, [Boston] definitely still feels like home and in the back of my mind I know that there is no better place to play than in Fenway Park." Arroyo said when his three-year extension with the Reds runs out after the 2013 season, he would be interested in pitching for the Rays (to play close to his family), returning to the Red Sox, or staying in Cincinnati."

A couple of names that might fit the bill in Boston are Shane Victorino (switch hitter, would be great in the #2 spot, probably too big of a contract though at 3yrs/$39M), Jackie Bradley Jr. (#2 prospect in their system,looks like a stud cf/lf, but unfortunately is left-handed), and Bryce Brentz (#6 prospect in Sox system, power-hitting RH, plays both RF & LF). Here's Boston's top prospect list: http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=bos#list=bos

[Pacman Fever]

Here's a little link right here too: http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/05/boston_red_sox_2013_options_if.html That shows that the RedSox, which are only 1 game out right now, are definitely in search of starting pitching. They also lost their closer Hanrahan for a while (the season?), so perhaps we could kinda sweeten the pot w/ Broxton??

"If you're asking yourself who the Red Sox might trade. That's an interesting question. It obviously depends on the caliber of the players being acquired. Super prospects such as Matt Barnes, Xander Bogaerts, Allen Webster and Jackie Bradley Jr. probably aren't going anywhere unless there's a superstar coming back in return.

Don't expect the Red Sox to part with Ruby De La Rosa for anything less than a major acquisition either.

That still leaves potentially attractive trade candidates such as Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias, Garin Cecchini, Bryce Brentz and Anthony Ranaudo on the blocks."

The Sox actually have a rather deep "farm system" right now, and I think if we could walk away w/ a package of Bogaerts/Bradley/Brentz/Cecchini in exchange for just Bro & Bro.......that'd be a helluva win for us longterm, & perhaps even short term as well (heck, have 'em go ahead & eat Lud's contract too, & sign the Choo man long-term)

[Beltway]

I think it's smarter to just keep him this season, give him the qualifying offer in the offseason, then take the draft pick.

[redsfanmia]

If the Reds trade Bronson his deferred money comes due imediately, not going to happen.

[5TimeWSChamps]

If the Reds trade Bronson his deferred money comes due imediately, not going to happen.

Yep. This needs to be stickied.

0% chance Arroyo gets dealt

[Pacman Fever]

If the Reds trade Bronson his deferred money comes due imediately, not going to happen.

It looks like you're right:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-cincinnati-reds-cut-ties-bronson-arroyo-195200655.html

COMMENTARY: Since the Cincinnati Reds traded for starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo prior to the start of the 2006 season, no other pitcher has started more games than Arroyo as of May 26 (tied with Dan Haren of the Washington Nationals with 243). During that span, Arroyo also ranks sixth in innings pitched (1554.2) and seventh in wins (96). Even his 4.06 ERA is a respectable 29th among the 53 pitchers who have chored at least 1,000 innings since 2006.

These mule-like numbers are a testament not only to Arroyo's conditioning and durability but also his intelligence in how he has managed to feature a wiffle ball-like repertoire of off-speed pitches from a variety of arm slots that somehow seem to bamboozle hitters more often than not. That repertoire and command of it are likely to keep Arroyo in a starting rotation for at least five years if not more, just not the Reds' rotation.

The Arroyo Contract

Besides the fact that the Reds have younger, cheaper and better options than Arroyo available to them for their rotation now, there's just no way the Reds should offer Arroyo the kind of coin he will command in the open market, which the Reds did do last time around with a three-year, $35-million extension for Arroyo before the start of the 2011 season. That extension featured $15 million in deferred money, most of which the Reds will keep paying to Arroyo in annual installments through 2021 regardless where Arroyo plays in the future. The terms of the deferred money in his contract extension will keep Arroyo with the Reds through the 2013 season because the remainder of the deferred money would have to be paid up front to Arroyo should the Reds try to trade him this year, but after 2013 Arroyo will take his services elsewhere.

Payroll Priorities

Given the unprecedented situation the Reds find themselves with a surging payroll and growing expected revenues from TV, radio and gate attendance, the Reds are likely to find themselves in a position to make one sizable payroll move either this year or during the off-season. Arroyo may be willing to return to the Reds at a reduced rate by rolling the deferred money of his current contract into a one-year deal for 2014, but the Reds should pass in favor of other options.

Aroldis Chapman

The most likely scenario is that the Reds will prioritize Aroldis Chapman prior to the end of this year before annually-deferred bonus money in his contract payable through 2021 starts to convert into bigger bonus money for 2014, which is triggered when Chapman qualifies for arbitration eligibility after this year. The Reds will have to pay Chapman a minimum of $6 million for 2014 which will be his last season with the Reds if a contract extension can't be reached within five days after the end of the 2014 World Series because Chapman will balk at the $5-million player option for 2015 unless he's not healthy.

Shin-Soo Choo

Should the Reds opt not to prioritize Chapman this year, they will be staring down a couple of other options. One of those options is a six-year, $90-million contract extension for Shin-Soo Choo, which is what it would probably take for Choo's agent Scott Boras to keep Choo out of the free agent market after season's end. If re-signing Choo proves too rich for the Reds' blood, they might prioritize trading for arbitration-eligible superstars like David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays or Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins. The amount of money involved in controlling the salary of either of these two players for the next two years would be comparable to the price it would cost the Reds to pay Arroyo for two more years. Of course the Reds would pay an exorbitant cost in trading top prospects to acquire either Price or Stanton.

Other Trade Options

Aside from potential trade market for arbitration-eligible stars like Price and Stanton, the Reds could still be significant players for a right-handed hitting power hitter to fill the void in left field created by the opening day injury to Ryan Ludwick. As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches at the end of July, more teams will be willing to make deals for players they really don't need. The pool of players that would fit the bill for the Reds would likely be limited to the likes of Josh Willingham of the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Quentin of the San Diego Padres, Chris Young of the Oakland A's, and perhaps Michael Cuddyer of the Colorado Rockies.

Arroyo Still Out

Even if the Reds don't make any kind of higher-dollar move this year or after the season, Arroyo is still on the outside looking in as he takes advantage of pitching during a contract year for a team that is a World Series contender. The trade to acquire Arroyo and $1.5 million in cash from the Boston Red Sox for Wily Mo Pena will go down as one of the better ones in Reds' history, thanks to one of the most unusual pitchers in Reds' history.

[goreds2]

I have told my co-workers it is possible we could trade Bronson. It would be nice to get a power hitting left fielder. We shall see. No matter what, he is a shoe in for the Reds Hall of Fame. :beerme:

[RedlegJake]

I agree about the Reds HoF. I disagree that there will be any interest in trading him. His vesting rights if traded mean the REDS nothis new team are on hook for the deferred money. Unless someone is crazy enough to pick it up. That is extremely doubtful. Bronson also has 10/5 rights. So many blocks it is likely better just to keep him, make a qualifying offer and take the pick. I don't see the Reds getting anyone of real value for him tradewise - he simply costs too much with salary, deferrals and right of refusal all taken together.

[UC_Ken]

Even without his contract clause there would be no reason to trade Bronson. We are built to win now. We don't have an equal level pitcher in AAA. I know Cingrani had a nice run when he was up here but his inefficiencies could also stress the bullpen. Barring injuries let him develop the rest of the year at AAA and pencil Bronson in for the 12-15 wins he always gets, with the way StL and Pit are playing we may need every one of those wins.

[Pacman Fever]

Well, after that 3 run blast he just gave up to "ole nursing home" Giambi, I figure I'd go ahead and trade him for just about anything. Hell, send him to Japan: Arroyo for a Yo-Yo :bang:

[Johnny Fan]

Given his agent and performance to this point, the odds of the Reds resigning Choo is slim to none and slim left along time ago...:(

[cincyredway]

I was just wondering if mike leake continues on the pace he is on right now, would he b the 4th starter for the playoffs, or would dusty stay with arroyo, that could b a tough decision, a long time away i am sure it will work itself out though.

[SporkLover]

I was just wondering if mike leake continues on the pace he is on right now, would he b the 4th starter for the playoffs, or would dusty stay with arroyo, that could b a tough decision, a long time away i am sure it will work itself out though.

Tough call... I'd bet on Leake at this point...l just a personal preference.