BP trade in the offseason?

[Ron Delancey]

What do you guys think about trading BP in the offseason? I know he's the best defensive 2nd baseman in the game and he's gonna get his 100 RBI's this year, but is he more valuable to this team than Choo? I think Votto, Bruce, and Ludwick can become our RBI men and we could have Choo leading off again next year with Billy Hamilton batting 2nd and maybe playing 2nd base? Plus we could probably get a lot out of BP right now..A couple decent pitchers and prospects...

[RedFanAlways1966]

Yes, I will be for that. BP is due $50 million over the next 4 seasons. That may seem like a good deal in this day and age, but not for a 33-36 yr old middle infielder with a career 96 OPS+. Almost any MLB hitter batting right behind Choo and Votto (top two OBP guys in their league) will get quite a few RBIs.

Hamilton at 2nd is probably a big NO though.

[RedlegJake]

First, the idea of BH playing second is ludicrous. He was pretty bad at SS and has never even played second. You can't just plug him in there and let it go.

I take your idea is trade BP to be able to afford to keep Choo. If you can find a workable alternative at second that is reasonably decent and fairly cheap, and if you could actually sign Choo, I could get behind the idea. Trading BP first and then NOT signing Choo would leave you holding a pretty big bag though. So would failing to acquire a reasonable alternative at second. Playing an Izturis type all season would negate the good Choo would do. It would be a GM wizardry type of move where Walt would need to have everything lined up pretty darn well to make sure it all worked out, imo. That makes it unlikely to happen although I like the idea. More reasonable is the possibility they move BP for a couple youngsters, free up that salary, use it to get better bench players or maybe a third baseman that could push Frazier. Still not going to happen, though.

[Ron Delancey]

Didn't we plug Hamilton into CF without any previous experience? 2nd base is much less stressful than short..I think Hamilton would be fine there. He doesn't have what it takes to be a ss, but I could see him playing 2nd.

[RedlegJake]

Didn't we plug Hamilton into CF without any previous experience? 2nd base is much less stressful than short..I think Hamilton would be fine there. He doesn't have what it takes to be a ss, but I could see him playing 2nd.

Yeah...in the minors and he's had a season and a half to get used to it. Plus, he had all the tools to be a plus CFer from the git go. You're asking him to step into second and just do it from scratch. Won't happen. Ask Frazier, Alex Gordon, and a number of others who have been tried at second and failed miserably. The turn and the footwork are trickier than many seem to think. I might go along with the premise that BH is athletic enough to learn it but no way he does it just by stepping into the position and taking off with it. You set him back another year or two.

[RedlegJake]

Nice start to your posting on RZ, though, Ron. Hope you are here for many more!

[Ron Delancey]

Thanks for the compliment..

I agree that the footwork is the biggest factor for him at 2nd base. I thought maybe a fall ball season and a winter league there would help him get acclimated at the position, but I understand your points. I still think we may shop BP a little to see what we can get in return..

[dfs]

Like Votto, Phillips' contract makes him very tough to trade. No way anybody trades a couple of pitchers (that you want) and a couple of prospects for Brandon Phillips with his current contract.

They don't have a replacement readily available so if you're going to trade Phillips it's going to be a challenge trade where you get back a second baseman that you think is better than Phillips.

It's very hard to imagine the timing working out so that the world series ends and Phillips is traded before Choo goes into the full out free agent pool.

Once Choo is in the free agent pool, it is very hard to imagine the reds will be able to outbid all the other teams for his services. I could be wrong, but ...it's just hard for me to see that.

Most of the times good teams don't get better by deciding who they want to trade away.

[RedlegJake]

Well, I hope Walt shops him but like dfs says, guys with big contracts are on the bad side of the Billy Beane value equation nowadays and cheap prospects are on the high side. A team acquiring BP is going to argue that they are taking on salary so the return going to the Reds should be negligible. The Reds, of course will argue his glove and rbis make him valuable and try to get more but in the end unless the Reds kick in part of his contract or take back another high priced player in return to even the money it is going to be hard to deal him for value. That doesn't mean Walt shouldn't be asking, though.

Even with BP's salary gone, I wonder if the Reds can compete for Choo in reality. The bidding could get silly with the year he has had. If someone is willing to go six years for instance, in order to sign him, no way in the world. And someone might.

It is going to be an interesting and tough off season for Walt. His best trading pieces are also key elements of the team. The best prospects are counted on very soon and will replace guys that may not be affordable. None of the best prospects are guys that are blocked. The money situation is tight. There are some obvious weaknesses, like RH hitting - the vulnerability to lefties; the bench; Bailey's impending FA; Cueto's and Marshall's health; CF and is BH ready; Arroyo's contract - to make a qualifying offer or not; Choo. Really I think it's going to be a very critical offseason that may set up or break the team for the next few seasons. More so than most off seasons.

[TitosLoveChild]

I don't think Hamilton is necessarily blocked in the outfield, whatever direction the Reds choose to go. No need to find another position for him, he just needs to be ML ready.

How about trade away Phillips, resign Choo and sign Cano in a master plan to establish an all lefty lineup.

[Rantly]

I think it is crazy thinking about trading BP
What's not to like about the player he has been for the last umpteen years?
Yes, he's expensive, but he has earned it
...and yes i am posting this after his go ahead HR (100 rbis)

[mroby85]

I don't understand why every time we get a good player there are always threads about trading them for other players lol.

[RedlegJake]

I don't understand why every time we get a good player there are always threads about trading them for other players lol.

It is in the nature of fandom. We could have Mike Trout and I guarantee there would be threads about the haul the Reds could get trading him for a boatload of prospects. No matter how good a team is, fans always dream of how the team could get even better.

[Johnny Fan]

Zero chance Walt even considers it, Brandon is a HUGE fan favorite who just resigned, you don't then just turn around and trade him. Not going to be even considered.

[coryfly]

Maybe we can trade him for someone who will never, ever bunt. :) I can't imagine getting rid of BP. I think he is invaluable at second and still will be for a few more years and he certainly doesn't hurt us at the plate. I know it is a lot of money but, as other people have said, he has earned it. Plus, he brings some intangibles to the team as well IMO.

[KYBatsFan]

I'd rather not trade a guy we just signed (who is not a bust)

[RedFanAlways1966]

No such thing as "untradable". Depends on what the return is. Google "Herschel Walker to Vikings trade" and see what the end result was for the Dallas Cowboys.

[KYBatsFan]

Denver Broncos traded Cutler...pretty unheard of for an NFL franchise to trade a productive young QB - so yes anything is possible

[rick vaughn]

I think Votto, Bruce, and Ludwick can become our RBI men...

Ludwick's a great guy, and obviously what he did last year (particularly while JV was out) was crucial, but I think projecting him as one of the main RBI guys going forward comes at a considerable risk.

Ryan is 35 and has had some significant injuries (shoulder, hip) which are the types of things that, even when healed, can make a player age faster than you'd expect (see--Rolen, Scott).

He's only once topped 150 games in a season, and his two seasons prior to last year were nothing to write home about.

That's not to say it can't happen, obviously last year shows it can. But if you look at his career as a whole, he's in his 11th season, and only three of those years look like he was putting up "cornerstone guy" type numbers. A team with Ryan Ludwick is a much stronger team if they're projecting him as one of those sort of "extra" bats--not a part time player, but the kind of guy who you say "Well, this is a solid lineup, and when Ludwick is producing down in the 6/7 hole, they just seem like a team that never stops coming at you."

He's also extremely streaky. Last year, he hit .333 and .327 in July and August, but hit .190, .224 and.253 each of the first three months. In 2011, he hit below .200 in three separate (and nonconcurrent) months. A player like that is great when he's hot, but when one of your main RBI guys is in a cold streak, it can pull down the entire team

[bob jones]

how about getting valentine back who is about to break the Japanese home run record

[Dwarftree]

Yes he is expensive. But why would you want to trade a cornerstone of your franchise? Plus a pretty productive one. And with DatDude goes the same i have written about (probably) loosing Arroyo after this season: I think both guys are very, very important in the clubhouse. Never underestimate that. So dealing BP would be not a smart move imho.

[Ron Delancey]

You guys still think the idea of BH playing 2nd is ridiculous? Deshields thinks he can do it and Fay has written about it.

[Rando]

You guys still think the idea of BH playing 2nd is ridiculous? Deshields thinks he can do it and Fay has written about it.

We know he can do it but he won't be better than BP

[jwertz]

Reasons why the Reds trade Phillips if a team is willing to take his contract:

His contract isn't an albatross yet, but it will be in a year or two.

His bat is in decline.

He called his boss a liar, when given a chance to recant he did not. Not smart.

Trade him now while he still has value in the eyes of other GMs

RBI is a team metric. Get over the number of RBI he had, it is a poor indicator of actual individual performance.

Reasons why you don't trade Phillips:

He plays when he is hurt. Gutting out injuries can both help or hurt a team. But it is an admirable quality.

He is fan friendly.

We have no viable replacement already on the team. His replacement would have to come in via trade or free agency.

He has an energy that is lacking with most of this ball club.

He likes "Debbies" and "swag". I am not certain what those things are, but some people think it is entertaining.

I am in the trade BP camp. This team needs to improve offensively. Brandon is our best trade chip not named Chapman. If we can use Brandon to acquire younger cheaper talent and shed his contract I think it makes sense. If we trade BP because Bob doesn't like him it is a huge mistake. If you can improve the team by trading Phillips you do it and don't look back. If you can't find a deal that make the Reds better then you don't move him.

[Lewdog]

We know he can do it but he won't be better than BP

That puts him in the same boat as about 95% of the second basemen in the league.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

Well, I hope Walt shops him but like dfs says, guys with big contracts are on the bad side of the Billy Beane value equation nowadays and cheap prospects are on the high side. A team acquiring BP is going to argue that they are taking on salary so the return going to the Reds should be negligible. The Reds, of course will argue his glove and rbis make him valuable and try to get more but in the end unless the Reds kick in part of his contract or take back another high priced player in return to even the money it is going to be hard to deal him for value. That doesn't mean Walt shouldn't be asking, though.

Even with BP's salary gone, I wonder if the Reds can compete for Choo in reality. The bidding could get silly with the year he has had. If someone is willing to go six years for instance, in order to sign him, no way in the world. And someone might.

It is going to be an interesting and tough off season for Walt. His best trading pieces are also key elements of the team. The best prospects are counted on very soon and will replace guys that may not be affordable. None of the best prospects are guys that are blocked. The money situation is tight. There are some obvious weaknesses, like RH hitting - the vulnerability to lefties; the bench; Bailey's impending FA; Cueto's and Marshall's health; CF and is BH ready; Arroyo's contract - to make a qualifying offer or not; Choo. Really I think it's going to be a very critical offseason that may set up or break the team for the next few seasons. More so than most off seasons.

I can certainly hope that Walt has a cell phone surgically placed on his ear this offseason (haha). If he doesn't make a few moves, I think it might be his time to go as well. Like you stated, and I 1000% agree with, this is probably the biggest offseason that I can remember.

The reason is because I think the Cincy fanbase is so sick and tired of their teams being the laughing stock of the professional sports world-- always one and done and look bad doing so. With the firing of Dusty, they really put a big fire out with that IMO. They would of lost quite a few fans from not doing anything at all. I just hope that they make moves to equalize the teams future to more now than later, but still of course have pieces in play so your not stinky down the road. I just want one before I die gosh darn it

[Bob Sheed]

Small to Mid-Market teams don't have the luxury of watching their star players decline with age.

If they do, they won't have the luxury of making the playoffs.

[Lewdog]

Reds fans have been spoiled by Phillips. Look at the starting second baseman on all the other Major League teams and about 90% of those teams don't have a second baseman that can do what Phillips does offensively and defensively. Phillips worst year would be a career year for some of the other guys in the league. If people think he can be traded and easily replaced by some free agent, they need to think again. If it were so easy then no one would be trading for Phillips, they would be signing that free agent instead.

[lex logan]

Excellent summary. I'm for a three-way trade with Atlanta (we don't want Ugglia) and whoever though I suspect we can't really improve the team "on paper" trading Phillips. If we can get a productive outfielder, however, he should be moved.

[Larkin88]

Reds fans have been spoiled by Phillips. Look at the starting second baseman on all the other Major League teams and about 90% of those teams don't have a second baseman that can do what Phillips does offensively and defensively. Phillips worst year would be a career year for some of the other guys in the league. If people think he can be traded and easily replaced by some free agent, they need to think again. If it were so easy then no one would be trading for Phillips, they would be signing that free agent instead.

Not here to disagree with your opinion on BP. I think a lot of Reds fans would agree, and we definitely have been spoiled to what BP brings at second.

It really is much more complicated than myopically focusing on production at second base, though. You are correct, there is virtually no scenario where BP could get traded, and the Reds will have better production from second base next season. There are, however, plenty of scenarios where taking a production hit at second could correct other areas of the club all things considered.

BP is a great second baseman. He also is a great second baseman who stands to make a whole lotta money over the next few years. IF he gets traded, it is because the club wants to spread the value that his contract represents to other positions or needs. Not because they want to upgrade second base, necessarily.

[Lewdog]

Not here to disagree with your opinion on BP. I think a lot of Reds fans would agree, and we definitely have been spoiled to what BP brings at second.

It really is much more complicated than myopically focusing on production at second base, though. You are correct, there is virtually no scenario where BP could get traded, and the Reds will have better production from second base next season. There are, however, plenty of scenarios where taking a production hit at second could correct other areas of the club all things considered.

BP is a great second baseman. He also is a great second baseman who stands to make a whole lotta money over the next few years. IF he gets traded, it is because the club wants to spread the value that his contract represents to other positions or needs. Not because they want to upgrade second base, necessarily.


That's just it, I do think the owner and GM lied to him when they negotiated his contract. I think Phillips took a hometown discount based on what they told him to stay with the team. Yet when the owner and GM not much later paid Votto a bunch of money they told Phillips they didn't have, I'd be pissed off too. The point isn't how much money Phillips got, it's the idea that he thought he was doing something to help the team, where instead he could have gotten more money as a free agent elsewhere.

We really have to quit talking in terms that makes it sound like the Reds have a cap to stay under. They can spend as much as they want. I know they are a small market team, BUT when you win you start bringing in more revenue. You can keep a low payroll as long as you continue to draft well and have a great farm system, but when you have holes, you NEED to fill them if it's what it takes to win. 90 win teams don't need to blow things up with 4 player trades and such like some people on here think. The core players aren't 36 year olds who just gave the last of blood from the stone. The Reds are pretty young and they are letting one of their oldest players in Arroyo walk.

So keep Phillips, and spend the money needed to fill left field and catcher if needed. We aren't talking about adding $100 million in payroll next year. We are talking maybe a $10-15 million a year guy in Granderson or Nelson Cruz for three years, and maybe a catcher like Saltalamacchia for $10 million. Jay Bruce is extended. Votto is extended. Cueto is extended. Phillips is extended. The rest of the guys are fairly young and still going to be arbitration available for a few years except for Bailey, Broxton, and Marshall, and those guys aren't as valuable as we thought they would be because while they were hurt other young guys stepped up.

So in the end keep Phillips, do something to kiss and make up between him and the front office, and fill the holes. Then celebrate a championship.

Fin.

[SlimJim11]

Votto signed before BP. BP knew what he was doing when he signed the contract.

[Larkin88]

That's just it, I do think the owner and GM lied to him when they negotiated his contract. I think Phillips took a hometown discount based on what they told him to stay with the team. Yet when the owner and GM not much later paid Votto a bunch of money they told Phillips they didn't have, I'd be pissed off too. The point isn't how much money Phillips got, it's the idea that he thought he was doing something to help the team, where instead he could have gotten more money as a free agent elsewhere.

We really have to quit talking in terms that makes it sound like the Reds have a cap to stay under. They can spend as much as they want.

To paragraph one, check your timeline. Votto signed his extension about a week before Phillips signed his. And I'm not sure where you are gleaning that BP took a "hometown discount." In terms of the average annual value on his current contract, he is the fifth highest paid second baseman ever (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/) (sixth highest average annual value on a contract since two of Utley's had a higher AAV)

Now I'm not here to say BP does not deserve that money. He definitely earned it on and off the field in his time in Cincinnati. But no, he didn't take a paycut to stay in Cincinnati. He got a damn good contract to the point where there are few suitors who could realistically take it on SHOULD he get traded. So it was actually pretty laughable when he went on his tirade about feeling "slapped in the face" by his contract earlier this season. More laughable to try and imply he took some outrageous team discount to stay in Cincinnati. IF he took any discount, it was marginal... and the market value for production at second would seem to support that.

As for the rest of your post, you seem to think the Reds should ignore the operational realities of having a budget. I think you are fundamentally wrong, but if that's truly your position, no point arguing. We can agree to disagree.

Again, I'm not necessarily advocating trading Phillips just for the hell of it - he's way too valuable on and off the field. But I'm also not offended or even confused by the club considering it, IF THE RETURN MAKES THE TEAM BETTER. And until any terms are even remotely laid out, I'm not going to presuppose that I know better than the front office in assessing that value.

EDIT - By the way, I do agree that if the Reds could swing Grandy while more or less retaining the status quo, they will be a better team in 2014 with BP on it. Again, we're just guessing at what potential scenarios are out there right now for the sake of a devil's advocate-like discussion. In the end, it all just depends for me.