Time to really worry about BP?

[SlimJim11]

The trends don't look good at all.


Last year post-allstar game - .283/.320/.431

This year pre-allstar game - .266/.320/.413

This year post-allstar game - .250/.288/.381

[Lewdog]

So what do you think the problem is? Is he getting tired? Does he lose some of his excitement for the game the longer the season goes? Do pitchers learn how to adapt and pitch to him the more they see him?

I personally think he plays so hard during the season that later in the season it gets, he has to deal with more and more nagging injuries and they take a toll on him. The Reds need him in the lineup, but maybe in the future Dusty needs to give him more days off during the season to keep him fresh.

[HoosierReds]

He definitely seems worn down. I hope it's not the beginning of a career downturn. He is a key piece to this team.

That being said, his numbers wouldn't be as concerning if the Reds were getting more offensive production from 3B, LF, and SS.

[redsfanmia]

Time to worry about the terrible contacts Walt has dished out. The Votto, Phillips, Ludwick and Broxton deals will cripple the franchise.

[dougdirt]

Time to worry about the terrible contacts Walt has dished out. The Votto, Phillips, Ludwick and Broxton deals will cripple the franchise.

I have a real hard time believe Ludwick and Broxton are going to cripple the franchise. Neither is making even $10M a year.

[Old school 1983]

Phillips best contribution to the team offensively has been his RBI, and as we know that's a highly situational stat and the rest of his numbers suggest he won't be able to do that going forward. Phillips is still a great glove, but it may be time to consider him less of a top or middle of the order guy and more of an asset with the glove and 6 to 8 hole hitter.

[redsfanmia]

I have a real hard time believe Ludwick and Broxton are going to cripple the franchise. Neither is making even $10M a year.

You are right, but they are still horrible contracts, Votto's contract scares me the most, great hitter but the length scares me.

[oregonred]

Datdude, Ludwick and Broxton will make nearly 30M next season combined. That is likely to be nearly 30% of the team's 2013 budget and almost ensures Choo and Arroyo will walk and that any replacements will need to be within the system or via low cost veteran castoffs.

Long term Votto's contract is a big concern, but at least for hte next few years the Reds should still get WAR or better value.

[Johnny Fan]

Datdude, Ludwick and Broxton will make nearly 30M next season combined. That is likely to be nearly 30% of the team's 2013 budget and almost ensures Choo and Arroyo will walk and that any replacements will need to be within the system or via low cost veteran castoffs.

Long term Votto's contract is a big concern, but at least for hte next few years the Reds should still get WAR or better value.

Choo walks because his agent will get some team to way overpay for him. Choo is good, but he isn't as good as what his contract will pay him. Bronson is the same, he is good but some team will step up and give him a 3 year deal for 10+ million a year, way to much to pay a pitcher of his age.

[Eric from NC]

Given Ludwick and Broxton's contract expires after next year, it's hard to say that cripples the franchise. It's my understanding that the Reds' share of new contract for national tv renewals by fox and espn will be 30 milion in increased revenue. I have hard time believing they would not sign Choo to contact the Reds' liked just because of one more year of Ludwick and Broxton.

[oregonred]

Given Ludwick and Broxton's contract expires after next year, it's hard to say that cripples the franchise. It's my understanding that the Reds' share of new contract for national tv renewals by fox and espn will be 30 milion in increased revenue. I have hard time believing they would not sign Choo to contact the Reds' liked just because of one more year of Ludwick and Broxton.

Broxton has two more years and Ludwick's $4.5M buyout would count against 2015. I think the FO would likely view this cost stream as;

2014: 15.5M (Broxton, Ludwick)
2015: 12.5M (Broxton, Ludwick buy-out)

$10-15M guys don't necessarily cripple the payroll if they produce. A collection of unproductive 5M+ guys can kill you unless you are a very large market. Will the Reds get $31M of value from Datdude, Ludwick and Broxton next year - or even 2/3rds of value. I would say highly unlikely and would love to be very wrong on this prediction.

[malcontent]

Datdude, Ludwick and Broxton will make nearly 30M next season combined.
:eek:

Bad Walter at work.

[RedlegJake]

A healthy full year of Ludwick I think you get value from, and same with BP - maybe not complete value to his contract but close. Marshall will earn his, too, I believe. Broxton is a sunk cost at this point, though. I doubt he's effective again. I hope I am wrong. Broxton is the only one of those contracts I really worry about in 2014. I think the key to BP being effective in the future may be getting a decent IF sub to spell him regularly - say a game a week, all season long, as he gets longer in the tooth.

[Reds&BuckeyeGuy]

A healthy full year of Ludwick I think you get value from, and same with BP - maybe not complete value to his contract but close. Marshall will earn his, too, I believe. Broxton is a sunk cost at this point, though. I doubt he's effective again. I hope I am wrong. Broxton is the only one of those contracts I really worry about in 2014. I think the key to BP being effective in the future may be getting a decent IF sub to spell him regularly - say a game a week, all season long, as he gets longer in the tooth.

Yeah they are going to have to do something with him and his declining numbers. He is still a great leader and baseball player, but it seems he is on the downward slide. I think he still has plenty of value, so that shouldn't really be of concern to me. My thing would be if his D started getting worse (errors, not diving after balls, etc) because that is what I personally love most about BP.

[tomnuetten]

the Ludwick contract looks bad because he was hurt most of the season and was bad the 1,5 months he played..

but he has a history as slow starter and with his injury I didn´t expect much from him...
he´ll be a good bat in the lineup next season (the contract is not as bad as it looks at the moment)

same with broxton although I have more concerns with him (I do hope that they´ll trade chapman, if the return is right and make broxton the closer next season)

every contract that is as long as votto´s is dangerous and scary as hell, but it´s sadly the only way that a player like him is staying with your club...

bp is different, he was never as good as votto and has a different style of play (bp lives from his athleticism which isn´t the best thing for guys over 30, an old votto will still be good obp wise...)

[Chuckie]

Yep, I have no confidence in him. But much-more importantly, no pitcher fears him and knows he will chase bad balls out of the zone. He's great defensively, extremely overrated offensively.

[kaldaniels]

Datdude, Ludwick and Broxton will make nearly 30M next season combined.

Which combined is 6.0 WAR on the open market. Now, I am not the one who lumped then all together, but I will play along.

You hope to do a bit better than that when extending your own, but 6 is market value. I can forsee those 3 adding up to 6 WAR in 2014. Even if they add up to 3, it would be disappointing, but not crippling.

They certainly are not efficient deals, as things stand, but when you go around the league looking at teams with payrolls in the 100 MM range, there are gonna be contracts like these on the team.

Of the 3, the Broxton deal is the one that stands to be a real stinker. JMHO.

[Lewdog]

Which combined is 6.0 WAR on the open market. Now, I am not the one who lumped then all together, but I will play along.

You hope to do a bit better than that when extending your own, but 6 is market value. I can forsee those 3 adding up to 6 WAR in 2014. Even if they add up to 3, it would be disappointing, but not crippling.

They certainly are not efficient deals, as things stand, but when you go around the league looking at teams with payrolls in the 100 MM range, there are gonna be contracts like these on the team.

Of the 3, the Broxton deal is the one that stands to be a real stinker. JMHO.

That's because the Broxton deal was a 'closer's' deal. They expected to have Chapman in the starting rotation and Broxton closing out games. Now he is just an over-paid setup man.

[jhiller21]

I'm equally worried about both aspects of his game. The defense is still good, but not what it was, and the offense depends on where he's hitting.

4th doesn't seem to work, Outs kill production. Any decent professional hitter could drive in 100 with the likes of Choo and Votto in front of him.

[Lewdog]

I'm equally worried about both aspects of his game. The defense is still good, but not what it was, and the offense depends on where he's hitting.

4th doesn't seem to work, Outs kill production. Any decent professional hitter could drive in 100 with the likes of Choo and Votto in front of him.

If Phillips is going to continue to try and hit for power and not steal bases when he gets on, he needs to be batting 6th in the lineup. The Reds problem is they have too many lefties that are key contributors and poor at hitting lefties. Liriano proved that in the Wild Card game.

A true lineup if Choo, Votto, and Bruce could hit lefties consistently would be:

1. Hamilton
2. Choo
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Frazier
6. Phillips
7. Mesoraco
8. Cozart

Frazier and Phillips could be flopped but I would prefer if the Reds brought in a catcher with a better bat like someone suggested McCann and put him in the 5th spot and move Frazier to 7th.

[SlimJim11]

The issue isn't that the lefties can struggle vs lefties, its that the righties struggle vs everybody. Only 3 players on the team had an OPS over .800 vs left handers and they were Votto, Mesoraco, and Heisey. The latter 2 each had under 100 ab's vs lefties.