2014 Rotation Thread

[Caveat Emperor]

Here's your projected top-5:

1. Mat Latos
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Homer Bailey
4. Mike Leake
5. Tony Cingrani.

Two of the five (Cueto & Cingrani) had major durability issues in 2013. Mike Leake is a pitcher who is a full run worse in the second half of seasons as he is in the first half. Homer Bailey is in his walk year.

Does this rotation need Arroyo to come back? Should the Reds look at bringing someone in and dealing Bailey if they can't reach a long-term agreement? Can you really count on Cueto and Cingrani long-term?

Discuss here.

[Wonderful Monds]

Cingrani will get stronger I think. It's his first full year. Cueto, that's way more up in the air.

Bailey should be extended ASAP.


After Dusty is gone, Chapman should finally be moved to the rotation. It would nice to have a guy with true shutdown potential like Chapman has for games like this.

[joshua]

Cueto was on the DL for a considerable amount of time this season. Latos has been pitching hurt and now has some kind of elbow issue, Cingrani has been hurt also.

If Stephenson is not ready to wait in the wings in Louisville, we need to have some sort of arm to use as insurance if we don't bring Arroyo back.

[oregonred]

That rotation can compete for the division even without Arroyo. With a lot of bad contracts the Reds simply have no room for error next year in the rotation and have to rely on those five and good health. No money for Choo and no money for Arroyo.

Walt is going to have to earn his money in the offseason and get to work. New manager, CF/leadoff hitter, couple of pen arms, low cost #5/#6 type starter, an actual bench and a veteran with some pop. Quite a few holes to plug with liitle to no payflex. This team aged before our eyes this year and regressed on defense and the competition in the NL Central will only be tougher in 2014.

If Bailey won't sign a LTC, I think you have to deal him. The downside is 2014 could be the last year of the Reds window with the Cardinals, Pirates and rebuilding Cubs with tons of payflex. So maybe you have to ride Bailey and let him walk after the season.

[MillerTime58]

Trade Bailey for Jurickson Profar, and finally put Chapman in the rotation.

[Norm Chortleton]

Here's your projected top-5:


Does this rotation need Arroyo to come back?

No. Let him go if for no other reason than to make room for Cingrani. You must have at least one LH in the rotation. Absolutely must. I'm having a hard time even remembering the last one the Reds had.

[Mitri]

Let Bronson walk. Extend Homer. Spend $5MM on rotation insurance/bullpen. Focus everything else on the offense.

[miamiredskin]

Well, we will likely only have 2 or those 5 still pitching worth a d@mn come mid-August.

Given the long-term life-draining contracts awarded to Votto and Phillips, it's hard to imagine this season being anything but the high-water mark for this team for the rest of the decade.

[gilpdawg]

No. Let him go if for no other reason than to make room for Cingrani. You must have at least one LH in the rotation. Absolutely must. I'm having a hard time even remembering the last one the Reds had.

Wood, Maloney, Willis most recent three.

(I'm embarrassed to admit that I had to look that up to remember Maloney and Willis)

[BluegrassRedleg]

Cueto was on the DL for a considerable amount of time this season. Latos has been pitching hurt and now has some kind of elbow issue, Cingrani has been hurt also.

If Stephenson is not ready to wait in the wings in Louisville, we need to have some sort of arm to use as insurance if we don't bring Arroyo back.

Sounds like Stephenson may be ready to come along the same way Cingrani was this season. If he has a big spring, who knows. Maybe he's there on opening day.

[dougdirt]

No way am I trading any pitching. Also, next to no chance I am bringing back Arroyo. He is the 6th starter on this team moving forward. Find a swingman to put in the bullpen and keep insurance in AAA like you had last year. Hope you don't ever need it, but if you need someone in the second half, you may have Stephenson available by then.

[Biff Pocoroba]

I've never been on the Start Chapman bandwagon, but this year has convinced me. Four games against the Pirates and not a single appearance by our (rested and ready) all-star pitcher.

If the other five starters not named Arroyo all come back, then start Cingrani in the pen.

[corkedbat]

No. Let him go if for no other reason than to make room for Cingrani. You must have at least one LH in the rotation. Absolutely must. I'm having a hard time even remembering the last one the Reds had.

Wood

[Kc61]

No way am I trading any pitching. Also, next to no chance I am bringing back Arroyo. He is the 6th starter on this team moving forward. Find a swingman to put in the bullpen and keep insurance in AAA like you had last year. Hope you don't ever need it, but if you need someone in the second half, you may have Stephenson available by then.

Agree with all of this, except if Bailey won't re-sign, makes clear he is playing the market, and you get a top offer for him you have to consider it.

He's a very good pitcher but if he's leaving and you get top notch controllable players in return, you have to think about it.

[swaisuc]

Let Arroyo walk. Use the rotation given in the OP or convert Chapman. Either way. Too many other glaring issues to commit the money to a 6th starter, no matter how likely it is we'll need 1.

[RedTeamGo!]

Chapman is not going to start. Let it go, Luke. Trust the force, Luke.

[klw]

I could see the Reds going into next season with the following rotation:

1. Mat Latos
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Tony Cingrani.
4. Mike Leake
5. Dan Haren

I could see this being either a very dramatic offseason or a very dull one. If the Reds want to make major offensive changes they will need to give up a big chip to get a big bat. Bats simply don't come as easy as they used to. I would expect that the Reds would have to deal from the rotation strength to get a bat. If Homer is not extended this off-season I think he becomes the guy that is moved- I doubt that Stephenson would get moved short of a major major talent coming back to the Reds.

[Caveat Emperor]

No way am I trading any pitching. Also, next to no chance I am bringing back Arroyo. He is the 6th starter on this team moving forward. Find a swingman to put in the bullpen and keep insurance in AAA like you had last year. Hope you don't ever need it, but if you need someone in the second half, you may have Stephenson available by then.

And, with the fragility displayed by Cingrani and Cueto this year, the 6th starter on this team looks to get a ton of work. You really want a full year of Greg Reynolds in the rotation?

[badcontent]

Wood, Maloney, Willis most recent three.

(I'm embarrassed to admit that I had to look that up to remember Maloney and Willis)
Yeah, Liriano would have been a nice acquisition. But this FO doesn't seem to value lefty starters much at all (Wood, Sale).

[BungleBengals]

I would say to try to resign Arroyo. Everyone is saying to give him an extending offer, but I wouldn't. I read that the extending offers are somewhere around $13M. First off, that is too much for us. Secondly, I doubt another team pays more than that and gives up a first or second round pick for a 37 year old. I say sign Arroyo cheap for 2 years. Make him your number 4 or 5 pitcher that can eat up innings when he is not giving up 5 HRs. 2 years allows him to retire as a Red and allows Stephenson to be ready to take over.

Homer doesn't like it here and he is going to start getting expensive for inconsistency. I would try to trade him for Trumbo or Profar to shore up our offense. Plus Homer would probably like to go back to Texas. He does dominate the Astros too which the Rangers would like.

[RedEye]

Let Bronson walk. Extend Homer. Spend $5MM on rotation insurance/bullpen. Focus everything else on the offense.

I agree. But will there be anything else left?

[RedEye]

And, with the fragility displayed by Cingrani and Cueto this year, the 6th starter on this team looks to get a ton of work. You really want a full year of Greg Reynolds in the rotation?

I worry that both Cueto and Cingrani derive a lot of their effectiveness from deceptive deliveries -- and that it is those deliveries that are also causing their injuries. So I think they will both need to change their approach, which in turn could make them less effective.

I think the depth of this rotation is a bit of a mirage. They would do well to lock up Latos and Bailey right away -- and perhaps to keep Arroyo around, if they can. If I'm Walt, Cueto is the first name I'm shopping this off-season. A Latos/Homer/Leake/Cingrani staff will still be darn good.

[Todd Gack]

No way am I trading any pitching. Also, next to no chance I am bringing back Arroyo. He is the 6th starter on this team moving forward. Find a swingman to put in the bullpen and keep insurance in AAA like you had last year. Hope you don't ever need it, but if you need someone in the second half, you may have Stephenson available by then.

I was wondering, what's the earliest he'd be MLB ready?

[RedEye]

Homer doesn't like it here and he is going to start getting expensive for inconsistency. I would try to trade him for Trumbo or Profar to shore up our offense. Plus Homer would probably like to go back to Texas. He does dominate the Astros too which the Rangers would like.

I think the "Homer doesn't like it here" meme is overblown -- he's just a guy who speaks his mind instead of sugarcoating everything for the press. If the money is there, the Reds can contend for his services, I would think.

That said, I do a Homer-Profar deal every day of the week. Profar is a HUGE upgrade over Cozart at SS and adds another name to the nucleus of this team for the next 5-6 years.

Trumbo... not quite so sold, though his bat would probably work well between Votto and Bruce. Not as big of a fan of his all-around game though. I think he profiles as a AL player better.

[RedEye]

Yeah, Liriano would have been a nice acquisition. But this FO doesn't seem to value lefty starters much at all (Wood, Sale).

Not sure this is true. Wood was a surplus talent at the time that they used to acquire a valuable bullpen piece. Sale was just a player they didn't draft. That doesn't mean they don't value LH starters in general.

[Caveat Emperor]

I was wondering, what's the earliest he'd be MLB ready?

He's got 36 innings above low-A ball, he just posted his highest IP total as a professional at 114, and he's 20 years old -- I'd say expecting him to arrive anytime before mid-2015 is being foolhardy.

[klw]

Homer doesn't like it here and he is going to start getting expensive for inconsistency. I would try to trade him for Trumbo or Profar to shore up our offense. Plus Homer would probably like to go back to Texas. He does dominate the Astros too which the Rangers would like.
Trumbo career stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml
Lifetime OBP of .299 and has been below .300 for OBP in 2 of his 3 full seasons. Career 4 to 1 K/BB ration. I would want more than that for Homer. The Reds need offense and Trumbo can thump but a guy with pop and better OBP would be a better fit.