Reds Arbitration Class- MLBTRADERUMORS analysis

[klw]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-cincinnati-reds.html



Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Reds are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM
Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM
Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM
Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM
Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM
Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM
Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM
Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM
Corky Miller (4.112): $700K

Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year. 28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year. Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point. If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent. Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return. Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.
...

[Alpha Zero]

I know you were highlighting the portion of the article relating to a potential Bailey extension, but I had forgotten about Chapman's strange contract that allows him to go through arbitration while still collecting his scheduled salary as a bonus. In my mind, this reinforces the idea that he should be traded if he is not going to start. He's going to get expensive very quickly. Maybe the Tigers would deal a very good prospect for Chapman? Maybe even Castellanos? They have to be looking to upgrade their bullpen after watching late leads evaporate multiple times in the ALCS.

[oregonred]

Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014

Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.

There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.

Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:

Corky - was that a joke?

[Alpha Zero]

Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014

Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.

There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.

Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:

Corky - was that a joke?

The Reds need to decide if they want Latos or Bailey to lead the staff for the next half decade plus. Once they make a decision, they need to get that guy signed immediately and trade the other pitcher for a big return ASAP. The team simply can't afford both guys moving forward.

Also, Heisey is rapidly moving towards DFA territory. I like him, but I don't know if he's worth $2M+. It's a drop in the bucket in the scheme of things, but there is such a thing as death by a thousand cuts.

[oregonred]

Who knows. Inexplicably they gave a multiyear contract to Logan Ondrusek and Jack Hanrahan. Maybe Walt can coerse a drunkin' Corky to ink a 2 yr/5M extension...

[klw]

Who knows. Inexplicably they gave a multiyear contract to Logan Ondrusek and Jack Hanrahan. Maybe Walt can coerse a drunkin' Corky to ink a 2 yr/5M extension...

Corky will be waiting for Cano (and maybe Kershaw too) to sign to set his market.

[BungleBengals]

Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point

I think this would lead us to trading Bailey this season. Just did some quick math and if we give both Bailey and Latos similar extensions now using the 5 for 85 mentions in the article. We would be at $110M for 2015 already and that only includes Votto, Phillips, Hannahan, Bruce, Ludwick, Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Marshall, and Broxton. That does not include arb eligible players or FAs either. Not only that, but then you have to worry about extensions to Cueto and Leake after that season too.

I think with the hiring of Price as manager, Chapman has to be moved to the rotation, and then you have to trade Bailey. He is going to be too expensive, especially when you have Stephenson coming through the ranks. If Chapman doesn't work out, there are plenty of journeymen out there that can fill the gap. Heck, I remember a few years ago when LeCure was starting due to injuries. Either way, Bailey gets moved for a bat and saves this team money.

[RedsManRick]

I think it's going to be fascinating to see what happens with both BP and our SP. Assuming the Reds are interested in dealing them, the 2B market may be frozen until Cano signs and the SP market may be frozen until David Price is traded.

[Redsfan08]

I m takin Latos over Bailey no wait..............that is a tough one.

[PuffyPig]

I don't think Bailey has any intention of signing with the Reds, so the choice should be easy.

[HokieRed]

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

[RedlegJake]

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

Well, you can try and preempt by making a fat offer but craziness like the Lincecum contract and the rumored Kershaw price tag makes that very expensive. I agree - the plan should be to develop and plan as if neither will remain but hope one can be persuaded.

[klw]

I don't see why any pitcher the stature of Bailey or Latos would sign without testing the free agent market. I think longer range planning has to be based on the very slim likelihood either will sign with the Reds.

Either should sign a close to market deal unless he can guarantee that his arm won't go out on their next pitch.

[Kc61]

The Reds have until December 2 to offer contracts to - or non-tender - their arbitration eligible players. Putting aside major players, who will undoubtedly get contract offers, the group includes:

Hanigan (trade bait), Heisey (?), Simon (should get contract tender), Paul (?), Lecure (should get contract tender).

IMO neither Heisey nor Paul is a lock to get a contract tender. Heisey is projected (see opening post) to get $1.7 million in arbitration, I think that makes him vulnerable. Paul, at $1 million, less vulnerable but no lock.

I think this December 2 date could expedite trades. Teams like to acquire arbitration eligible players before the exchange of numbers, as I understand, so the new team can control the process.

The Reds currently have 41 men on their 40 man roster (unofficially) because Schumaker isn't formally signed up yet. Given this 12/2 deadline, which is immediately after Thanksgiving weekend, I think we may be in for some more player movement soon.

At the least, Hanigan's situation could be resolved because I'd think his new team will want to acquire him before the 12/2 deadline. If the Reds don't want to pay Heisey his likely arb salary, they could deal him by 12/2 also.

[oneupper]

If all it takes is $9 mm to keep Bailey this year, pay him. You can trade him at the deadline if we're out of the running or grab a pick if he walks at the end of the year.
He'll be in his contract year, hopefully he'll make the best of it for the REDS.

[Red Raindog]

Latos is under contract for 7.25M in 2014

Under those projections, Bailey, Leake, Chapman and Latos would make 11M than in 2013.

There's your Arroyo money for 2014 to hold the rest of the staff + Chapman together. Chapman's case will be interesting.

Hanigan 2.3M and Heisey 1.7M :eek:

Corky - was that a joke?

:laugh:

[Kc61]

Salary arbitration filings are due tomorrow, January 14. Don't know the details, but this appears to begin the arbitration process in a formal sense.

Then the salary arbitration figures are exchanged on Friday, January 17.

So it's possible we could soon see some Reds signings to avoid the process, although obviously these cases can settle at any time before decision. Hearings begin February 1.

I'm unaware of any Reds players having avoided arbitration by agreement so far.

There are six arbitration eligible players remaining on the roster, Bailey, Chapman, Lecure, Simon, Heisey, and Leake.

[Matt700wlw]

6 filed today

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2014/01/14/six-reds-officially-file-for-arbitration/

[redsmetz]

Interesting that Hanigan's extension with the Rays pegged his salary this season fairly close to this projection ($2.75MM v. $2.7MM).

[Matt700wlw]

Since they're "broke" this should be interesting.

[Beatlessp]

Happens every year with this team it seems. I think they are saying they're 'broke' b/c they are budgeting their top end offer for Bailey to extend, and them being 'broke' on the FA market probably has a lot to do with arbitration projections.

[PepperJack]

https://twitter.com/ctrent



#reds sign deal with chris Heisey, avoiding arbitration

[PepperJack]

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick



OF Chris Heisey signs for $1.76M to avoid arbitration with #reds.

[RedlegJake]

Well they pre-empted Heisey's arbitration...least important of the 6 but it's one down.

[Billy_Bearcat]

Only in baseball does a Chris Heisey get a 33% raise.

[PepperJack]

Only in baseball does a Chris Heisey get a 33% raise.


Rajai Davis just got 10 million for two years. Chris Heisey will have a chance at a nice payday in a couple of years.

Davis has a career OPS of .693, Heisey's is .741.

It's just the economics of baseball these days.

[Matt700wlw]

LeCure gets 2 years

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/reds-sam-lecure-agree-to-two-year-deal.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[PepperJack]

https://twitter.com/m_sheldon



Updated that it's a two-year, $3.05 million deal for LeCure

[PepperJack]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal



#Reds avoid arbitration with RHP Alfredo Simon. He will earn $1.5M.

[Gallen5862]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3s
Deadline for reaching arbitration deals before exchange of figures is 1 p.m. ET.

[Gallen5862]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m

#Padres’ Kennedy ($6.1M) and #Orioles’ Norris ($5.3M) are comps to #Cubs’ Samardzija. So are Leake and Medlen, whose deals are not done.

[Mitri]

https://twitter.com/BHSCouncil/status/424243783757099008

Reds and Mike Leake avoid arb.

That leaves only Bailey and Chapman.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds, Mike Leake Avoid Arbtration

By Zach Links [January 17 at 12:19pm CST]

The Reds and Mike Leake have avoided arbitration, according to the Beverly Hills Sports Council (via Twitter). He'll get $5.925MM plus incentives, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links).

[PepperJack]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2014/01/17/walt-jocketty-says-the-reds-came-close-to-a-deal-with-homer-bailey/



Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said the Reds came close to getting a deal done with Homer Bailey before the 1 p.m. deadline to exchange salary numbers.

“We talked a one-year and a multiyear deal,” he said. “We’ll keep talking.”

[PepperJack]

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS



Homer bailey files at $11.6M, reds $8.7M



Chapman files at $5.4M, reds $4.6M

[corkedbat]

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS

Looks like Homer will probably make around $10.15M and Aroldis in the area of $5M :)

I'd say things are coming to a head with Homer. If he compromises on a 1year deal or goes through the arb process then he's gone by the end of the year (or sooner).

If Walt pulls a huge miracle and gets an extension, I'll guess something in the 5/$80-85M range with a sixth year option that pushes it right at $100M (or a little beyond) or possibly six or seven years with a year or two that he can opt out of.

[Kc61]

Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.

Bailey and the Reds are almost $3 million apart. Big gulf between them, even on a one year deal.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Discussing Long-Term Deal With Homer Bailey

By Jeff Todd [January 17 at 8:59pm CST]

Discussing the team's inability to reach agreement with pitcher Homer Bailey before today's deadline to submit arbitration figures, Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that the sides were discussing a long-term extension, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. He further indicated that the club was not concerned with the situations of either of its two prominent remaining arbitration cases, Bailey and closer Aroldis Chapman.

Though the sides have reportedly had previous discussions on a significant extension, Jocketty raised expectations that something would get worked out. As the GM explained:

"In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."

Jocketty further indicated that he is "optimistic" about reaching a long-term deal. Discussing the terms of the contract, he said:

"I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."

[mth123]

Chapman and the Reds are close, they should settle around $5 million. Looks easy.



Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.

Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.

[757690]

Sign him and shop him. Add $4.25 Million in bonus money and Chappy is one of the reasons the Reds can't afford a bat IMO. If it comes down to keeping Bailey, Latos or Chapman, he's the one to deal. $9.25 this year, next year will be year 2 of arb and even though the $3 Million bonus goes away, I'd expect his total cost to top $10 Million. Year 3 of arb will see him near $12 Million IMO. Even though no long term deal, you're looking at around $30 Million or so earmarked for saves over the next three years. If you want to make some salary room for other needs, there is where it should come from.

Don't give him away though. One guy who can address a weak area on the big league team, a young power arm to mix back in the pen and a top 100 prospect would be needed to pull the trigger.

I'm not sure how the Reds set it up, but most teams don't count signing bonuses of amateur players against payroll. It usually comes out of the player development part of the budget. I'm pretty sure the $1.25M bonus this season for Chapman is not being counted against payroll, and I wouldn't be surprised if the $3M isn't counted either. But I'm not sure.

I'm still for trading Chapman for the right return, pretty much what you mentioned, but I don't think he hurts the payroll as much as you're saying.

[mth123]

I'm not sure how the Reds set it up, but most teams don't count signing bonuses of amateur players against payroll. It usually comes out of the player development part of the budget. I'm pretty sure the $1.25M bonus this season for Chapman is not being counted against payroll, and I wouldn't be surprised if the $3M isn't counted either. But I'm not sure.

I'm still for trading Chapman for the right return, pretty much what you mentioned, but I don't think he hurts the payroll as much as you're saying.

Count it however you want to. Money comes in from revenue sources and goes out in checks to pay for things and the total of that equation is where the payroll budget comes from. $4.25 Million is going out in bonus money to Chapman and that obligation can be dealt in order to spend it on other things. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year until it's paid up, but I'd say the $3 Million current year cost should be something the team should expect to recoup in a deal. If not, then I'd need a second prospect. Possibly a guy outside the top 100, but in some team's top 10 to 15 range. Maybe a former prospect with an injury issue or a bad year looking for a comeback.

[Kc61]

Count it however you want to. Money comes in from revenue sources and goes out in checks to pay for things and the total of that equation is where the payroll budget comes from. $4.25 Million is going out in bonus money to Chapman and that obligation can be dealt in order to spend it on other things. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year until it's paid up, but I'd say the $3 Million current year cost should be something the team should expect to recoup in a deal. If not, then I'd need a second prospect. Possibly a guy outside the top 100, but in some team's top 10 to 15 range. Maybe a former prospect with an injury issue or a bad year looking for a comeback.

I won't repeat the reasons for my strong opposition to this trade Chapman thing.

Question. Let's assume a pitching staff with the five starters. Then there's a pen of Hoover, Parra, Broxton, Marshall, Simon, and Lecure.

No Chapman. He's traded for a position player and prospect.

Who is Chappy's replacement? Don't tell me Hoover closes. Not asking about roles.

What additional pitcher fills Chapman's roster spot?

Ondrusek is a possibility. Him? Who is the pitcher that takes Aroldis' spot on the Reds pitching staff?

[mth123]

I won't repeat the reasons for my strong opposition to this trade Chapman thing.

Question. Let's assume a pitching staff with the five starters. Then there's a pen of Hoover, Parra, Broxton, Marshall, Simon, and Lecure.

No Chapman. He's traded for a position player and prospect.

Who is Chappy's replacement? Don't tell me Hoover closes. Not asking about roles.

What additional pitcher fills Chapman's roster spot?

Ondrusek is a possibility. Him? Who is the pitcher that takes Aroldis' spot on the Reds pitching staff?

Well, in the deal I said get a young power arm back as part of the return. If that can't happen, there were tons of free agents out there for a lot less money that could have filled in the middle of the pen.

It is about roles. If you think the Reds have a closer in house (I do), then the pitcher to replace Chapman on the roster doesn't have to be a closer. I'd think hard about adding a 6th starter type, Maybe a Chris Capuano or a Scott Baker, Then fill the pen with Hoover, Lecure, Parra, Simon, Marshall and Broxton.

Fact is, if this team doesn't change the mix by adding a bat and bringing in some more young and cheap players that can filter in as guys get expensive, both the present and the future are at risk. For that to happen, the team needs to deal some one who is desirable to other teams. They won't get there dealing Heisey or a marginal prospect or two. Chapman, Bailey, Latos, Votto or Bruce. Those are the trade chips to choose from in order begin the make-over this team needs. Cueto has too many injury issues. Leake night get something, but probably not enough. Of those guys, Chapman is the one who could most be replaced on the current team without just completely burning it down. Doing nothing is worse IMO and that seems to be the path.

[Kc61]

Well, in the deal I said get a young power arm back as part of the return. If that can't happen, there were tons of free agents out there for a lot less money that could have filled in the middle of the pen.

It is about roles. If you think the Reds have a closer in house (I do), then the pitcher to replace Chapman on the roster doesn't have to be a closer. I'd think hard about adding a 6th starter type, Maybe a Chris Capuano or a Scott Baker, Then fill the pen with Hoover, Lecure, Parra, Simon, Marshall and Broxton.

Fact is, if this team doesn't change the mix by adding a bat and bringing in some more young and cheap players that can filter in as guys get expensive, both the present and the future are at risk. For that to happen, the team needs to deal some one who is desirable to other teams. They won't get there dealing Heisey or a marginal prospect or two. Chapman, Bailey, Latos, Votto or Bruce. Those are the trade chips to choose from in order begin the make-over this team needs. Cueto has too many injury issues. Leake night get something, but probably not enough. Of those guys, Chapman is the one who could most be replaced on the current team without just completely burning it down. Doing nothing is worse IMO and that seems to be the path.

I didn't expect a specific response because your whole premise would be to add a pitcher who cannot be compared to Chapman. Any named pitching replacement would obviously be a come down.

See, no matter how you say it, you are diluting the talent base on the team by trading Chapman. You would not getting back any player of Chapman's quality. You are sacrificing quality for position.

I don't trade away experienced, elite, controllable arms unless I'm getting a star player back.
That kind of pitching is too important and rare. Reliever or not. Period.

I know you and some others disagree, I get it, thanks for responding.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Reds avoid arbitration with Chapman. 1 Year 5 million.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/reds-avoid-arbitration-with-aroldis-chapman.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[bob jones]

chapaman did not give up a hit in the last week of the season he was unhittable dont you think??

[Kc61]

Justin Masterson's hearing is scheduled for February 20, according to various web reports. No word I can find on Homer Bailey's hearing. The timing of that hearing could influence the timing of any decision on a long-term contract.

There has been dead silence from the Reds and Bailey recently which leads me to believe they are in discussion and that we'll know the result soon.

Obviously if he signs for one year he still can extend later. But as the clock ticks, without a LTC, there's more of a chance he goes FA after the season.

Masterson and Bailey, I've read, are considered similar cases they are considered to be in the same category of pitchers in terms of arbitration. They are the two major starting pitchers left in arbitration. Kimbrel is also very interesting because he's an unusually successful reliever.

[redsmetz]

Justin Masterson's hearing is scheduled for February 20, according to various web reports. No word I can find on Homer Bailey's hearing. The timing of that hearing could influence the timing of any decision on a long-term contract.

There has been dead silence from the Reds and Bailey recently which leads me to believe they are in discussion and that we'll know the result soon.

Obviously if he signs for one year he still can extend later. But as the clock ticks, without a LTC, there's more of a chance he goes FA after the season.

Masterson and Bailey, I've read, are considered similar cases they are considered to be in the same category of pitchers in terms of arbitration. They are the two major starting pitchers left in arbitration. Kimbrel is also very interesting because he's an unusually successful reliever.

In the last post of the Bailey thread, someone said it is also on February 20th too.

[Kc61]

Of about 19 arbitration situations left to go, the four biggest in terms of money are Bailey, Masterson, Wieters, and Kimbrel.

Masterson is asking for the most money, at $11.8 million, but if you average in bid and asked, Bailey leads with a $10.15 million average. The gap between bid and asked for Masterson is greater than Bailey's gap with the Reds.

Kimbrel is interesting because he's asking for $9 million as a reliever.

Wieters has a gap of $2.25 million as compared with the Orioles' offer.

Other situations with fairly wide gaps are Trumbo, Samardzija, Jansen of the Dodgers, Clippard of the Nats, Belt of the Giants.

[HeatherC1212]

Matt Wieters avoids arbitration: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/bal/baltimore-orioles-matt-wieters-avoid-salary-arbitration-agree-on-one-year-contract?ymd=20140206&content_id=67523130&vkey=news_bal