The one-year Choo concept

[Kc61]

Last year the Reds picked up Choo, a very good and potentially expensive player. They got him for the last year before his market price exploded. A year before free agency.

This concept could work again for the Reds. Probably limited with funds, the Reds could go out and get a good player or two who are nearing free agency.

This is what fueled the Sandoval discussion in another thread. He is a year from free agency, so might be obtainable, give the Reds a good year, then they both move on.

I wonder what other players are a year from free agency and would upgrade the Reds. (Not trying to repeat the Sandoval discussion here.)

If the current team wants to avoid losing the player to free agency soon, it might trade him now, get what it can.

The Reds themselves might think this way with Bailey. But I wonder if there are candidates for the Reds to acquire for 2014, maybe even for two seasons, with a longer FA contract unlikely.

[PepperJack]

Sandoval
Headley
Crisp
Rasmus
Lowrie
Parra(ARI)


That is just a quick list off the top of my head who I have to think might be attainable for varying degrees of cost who fit this criteria.

[klw]

He is two years under control but Cliff Lee would never be a drain on the rotation. There is that whole issue of his being owed 25 million a year with the third year vesting option. He could always be moved as the contract gets shorter if the Reds are not up to snuff. Not really a position of need however.

[RadfordVA]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

From this list do not see many fits. Would ideally want a leadoff CFer. So basically Choo again :)

This season I would focus on getting something for our own impending free agent instead, Bailey. Do the opposite of last season and help bolster team for next 5 seasons.

[TitosLoveChild]

Reds had to give up Didi for that one year of service. Now we are going to get a top pick back if we lose Choo but how many times can we afford to do that. Mid/small market teams cannot make too many ML ready player trades for draft picks.

[Kc61]

Reds had to give up Didi for that one year of service. Now we are going to get a top pick back if we lose Choo but how many times can we afford to do that. Mid/small market teams cannot make too many ML ready player trades for draft picks.

I think you have to get good players where you can.

I certainly wouldn't trade the whole farm system for expiring contracts.

But the team has to find ways to get good players without paying full price.

So occasionally, the team needs to consider good players who are "playing out their option" and keep them for a short term.

I wonder if Walt will do his given how well Choo did for the Reds last season.

[mth123]

Bailey for Rasmus makes some sense to me. Maybe the Reds could get a bit of a kicker in a deal like that.

[Old school 1983]

Bailey for Rasmus makes some sense to me. Maybe the Reds could get a bit of a kicker in a deal like that.

I think bailey would net something better than Rasmus. When trading bailey this offseason, you aren't trading just bailey, but bailey and a first round pick or the opportunity to sign him for longer term. I think he could net more.

[mth123]

I think bailey would net something better than Rasmus. When trading bailey this offseason, you aren't trading just bailey, but bailey and a first round pick or the opportunity to sign him for longer term. I think he could net more.

But you're also getting Rasmus and a first round pick or the opportunity to sign him for longer. .840 OPS with stellar defense in CF (way better than Stubbs ever was) is pretty darned valuable in itself and it's something this team is desperate for. The Reds have options to replace Bailey. Really nothing for CF in 2014.

[Old school 1983]

But you're also getting Rasmus and a first round pick or the opportunity to sign him for longer. .840 OPS with stellar defense in CF (way better than Stubbs ever was) is pretty darned valuable in itself and it's something this team is desperate for. The Reds have options to replace Bailey. Really nothing for CF in 2014.

The thing with him though is that he's left handed. I think that'd put the reds in the same position as they were this year. If a lefty starts or a loggy comes in, then our offensive production is mitigated. Now if there was a possibility of maybe a bailey Phillips and ludwick for Bautista and Rasmus deal id be all for it. I'm all for getting offensive help, but this lineup needs a legit right handed bat that is proven and not coming back from injury.

[mth123]

The thing with him though is that he's left handed. I think that'd put the reds in the same position as they were this year. If a lefty starts or a loggy comes in, then our offensive production is mitigated. Now if there was a possibility of maybe a bailey Phillips and ludwick for Bautista and Rasmus deal id be all for it. I'm all for getting offensive help, but this lineup needs a legit right handed bat that is proven and not coming back from injury.

Most pitchers are Right Handed. Really can't have too many lefty bats IMO. Too many RH Bats is the recipe for long slumps IMO. I want more lefty bats. Need Eric Chavez to pair with Frazier IMO.

Ludwick needs to be the RH bat or needs to be replaced by one. I still have hope that Mesoraco can be the RH power that is missing, I sure wouldn't count on it at this point though.

[Kc61]

I don't see the Reds spending a lot of money or players to acquire a CFer. I think they will get a complimentary player for that position.

Hamilton IMO will be a Red next year and play CF at least on a part time basis. It's his position very soon.

Thing is, you can't keep Hamilton at AAA any more. These are his prime running years. Speed doesn't last forever. He has to be with the big club.

I could see the Reds getting somebody, like a Choo, who is really slated for LF. Such a player could play both CF and LF next year, and eventually LF full time. Then, yes, a high quality guy.

But I doubt they will pay big dollars or players for a true CF guy. Not with BH around.

[Old school 1983]

Most pitchers are Right Handed. Really can't have too many lefty bats IMO. Too many RH Bats is the recipe for long slumps IMO. I want more lefty bats. Need Eric Chavez to pair with Frazier IMO.

Ludwick needs to be the RH bat or needs to be replaced by one. I still have hope that Mesoraco can be the RH power that is missing, I sure wouldn't count on it at this point though.

Most pitchers are right handed yes, but if you stack the lefties it's so much easier to mitigate the lineup in the later innings or by starting a lefty in say a one game playoff. I know the season is a long grind but I think lineup balance with good hitters is superior to less balance with good hitters. The reds don't have too many right handed bats, they have too many poor to average right handed bats. They need a legit right handed bat starter. It'd make it worlds easier to stack good hitters and make the team better throughout the game not just early or just late. Now left handed platoon partners for lesser right handed hitters who struggle against righty pitching-that I'm all for. If a permanent upgrade over Frazier can't be had, then I'm all about bringing in Chavez.

[Kc61]

Most pitchers are right handed yes, but if you stack the lefties it's so much easier to mitigate the lineup in the later innings or by starting a lefty in day a one game playoff. I know the season is a long grind but I think lineup balance with good hitters is superior to less balance with good hitters. The reds don't have too many right handed bats, they have too many poor to average right handed bats. They need a legit right handed bat starter. It'd make it worlds easier to stack good hitters and make the team better throughout the game not just early or just late. Now left handed platoon partners for lesser right handed hitters who struggle against righty pitching-that I'm all for. If a permanent upgrade over Frazier can't be had, then I'm all about bringing in Chavez.

I agree with this philosophy.

Play the top hitters every day.

Platoon the medium guys, except for prime defenders at key positions.

LF, 3B and C are good candidates on the Reds for a platoon or a "sometimes" platoon.

[mth123]

Most pitchers are right handed yes, but if you stack the lefties it's so much easier to mitigate the lineup in the later innings or by starting a lefty in say a one game playoff. I know the season is a long grind but I think lineup balance with good hitters is superior to less balance with good hitters. The reds don't have too many right handed bats, they have too many poor to average right handed bats. They need a legit right handed bat starter. It'd make it worlds easier to stack good hitters and make the team better throughout the game not just early or just late. Now left handed platoon partners for lesser right handed hitters who struggle against righty pitching-that I'm all for. If a permanent upgrade over Frazier can't be had, then I'm all about bringing in Chavez.

Bruce and Votto hit lefties better than most RH bats do. RH bats who can hit against RH pitching are generally among the games best players. I think it's going to cost a ton in players and money to have one on the roster. The Reds can make decent improvements by going the lefty route without wrecking the roster. They could get some righty hitters who are more of the same, but a real RH upgrade might require more than the Reds can afford to deal and/or pay.

[Old school 1983]

I agree with this philosophy.

Play the top hitters every day.

Platoon the medium guys, except for prime defenders at key positions.

LF, 3B and C are good candidates on the Reds for a platoon or a "sometimes" platoon.

It looks like we found our sometimes platoon partner for C today. Hopefully a full time upgrade or a platoon partner can be found for the other two spots. I agree with you on Hamilton as well. Maybe find a fall back or a guy that can rove between left and center, but Hamilton needs to be on the big league roster because his speed is a huge weapon with a limited shelf life. He can help win games in Cincinnati as well as play great defense. But back to the original point, i don't think the reds need more right handed hitters, they just need one that is substantially better than the ones they have.

[Old school 1983]

Bruce and Votto hit lefties better than most RH bats do. RH bats who can hit against RH pitching are generally among the games best players. I think it's going to cost a ton in players and money to have one on the roster. The Reds can make decent improvements by going the lefty route without wrecking the roster. They could get some righty hitters who are more of the same, but a real RH upgrade might require more than the Reds can afford to deal and/or pay.

Some of the names that are said to be available from the reds include Phillips hanigan and bailey. I think if you combine these guys in a deal together or pair two of them, that a right handed upgrade could be found Phillips is undervalued on RZ IMO and bailey could command quite a bit in the market this winter.

[mth123]

Some of the names that are said to be available from the reds include Phillips hanigan and bailey. I think if you combine these guys in a deal together or pair two of them, that a right handed upgrade could be found Phillips is undervalued on RZ IMO and bailey could command quite a bit in the market this winter.

Bailey could get one, perhaps with a prospect. Adding Hanigan and especially Phillips probably reduces the return (or requires the Reds take a bad contract back) that could be had in a Bailey deal.

[Kc61]

The Reds current philosophy is emphasize pitching.

I think they are trying to improve the offense with medium guys. Just better hitters than some of last year's players.

Still, I'd hope that with Choo probably gone, the team can find a way to add one major hitter, and it's best if he's a RHH.

[Old school 1983]

Bailey could get one, perhaps with a prospect. Adding Hanigan and especially Phillips probably reduces the return (or requires the Reds take a bad contract back) that could be had in a Bailey deal.

I think hanigans contract is do small that it wouldn't require to take back a bad contract. I know here at redszone Phillips' contract is considered an albatross, but to a team with more payroll room or in need of a 2b it may not be.

[mth123]

I think hanigans contract is do small that it wouldn't require to take back a bad contract. I know here at redszone Phillips' contract is considered an albatross, but to a team with more payroll room or in need of a 2b it may not be.

It's still $50 Million and the last $27 Million at least is probably going to be for a replacement player or worse. Teams are going to require money the other way or a reduction in talent surrendered to take that. Hanigan probably isn't that much of a drag, but unless it's a team with nothing at catcher, he's probably a non-factor in a deal. Bailey and Hanigan to the Jays might be a decent start on a deal for Bautista, but since Bailey is a rental, I still think the Jays would want a prospect (I'd do Travieso in a deal like that). Adding Phillips would only make it happen if the Reds took back an undesirable like Melky and maybe more IMO.

[RedlegJake]

BP is likely to bring the best return dealt alone or with a prospect added. Ditto Bailey. You can get 3, even 4 good prospects for a top pitcher but try to add another guy and you still aren't likely to get more. BP's contract is not that bad for a major market - I think you have to look at what current contracts are paying! The price is rising for just-short-of-star caliber players. Dramatically. Pundits are even calling $12 million a year for Arroyo a bargain this winter. BP to KC or a small market isn't likely because of his contract BUT BP to the Yanks, Braves, Red Sox, Jays, Angels (the Dodgers are out with the Guerrero deal)? None of those teams are going to blink at his deal. That said, all of them will play his contract up to try and lower the return. It's negotiation.

Bailey - tote up what you can get in the best deal. Weigh that against having him in the rotation another year knowing you get a draft pick.

Hanny - should fetch a platoon OFer, a utility infield guy that hit a little, or a decent middle reliever. Reds need either of the first two. If they move a couple pen arms in separate deals they maybe could use the third choice.

BP - I simply wonder how hard a line Cast has taken about dealing him. That will make a ton of difference. And yes, it may be dumb but owners ARE often dumb. If Walt has been given a firm directive then we may not like the return. I hope they just keep him if a good return isn't forthcoming. I don't mind dealing him. I do mind giving him away.

Chapman - maybe he's a great chip but I don't think the Reds are even considering a deal for Aroldis. Like BHam, they see box office. They see unmatched potential. I really believe they'll laugh at almost any offer made for Chapman.

[mth123]

BP is likely to bring the best return dealt alone or with a prospect added. Ditto Bailey. You can get 3, even 4 good prospects for a top pitcher but try to add another guy and you still aren't likely to get more. BP's contract is not that bad for a major market - I think you have to look at what current contracts are paying! The price is rising for just-short-of-star caliber players. Dramatically. Pundits are even calling $12 million a year for Arroyo a bargain this winter. BP to KC or a small market isn't likely because of his contract BUT BP to the Yanks, Braves, Red Sox, Jays, Angels (the Dodgers are out with the Guerrero deal)? None of those teams are going to blink at his deal. That said, all of them will play his contract up to try and lower the return. It's negotiation.

Bailey - tote up what you can get in the best deal. Weigh that against having him in the rotation another year knowing you get a draft pick.

Hanny - should fetch a platoon OFer, a utility infield guy that hit a little, or a decent middle reliever. Reds need either of the first two. If they move a couple pen arms in separate deals they maybe could use the third choice.

BP - I simply wonder how hard a line Cast has taken about dealing him. That will make a ton of difference. And yes, it may be dumb but owners ARE often dumb. If Walt has been given a firm directive then we may not like the return. I hope they just keep him if a good return isn't forthcoming. I don't mind dealing him. I do mind giving him away.

Chapman - maybe he's a great chip but I don't think the Reds are even considering a deal for Aroldis. Like BHam, they see box office. They see unmatched potential. I really believe they'll laugh at almost any offer made for Chapman.

Disagree.

Bailey could net a star caliber player making similar money, but the rental nature of his deal probably means the Reds need to add a sweetener. If the return is prospects, I'd guess three really good prospects who aren't ready. I doubt a ready now can't miss guy like Profar would go in a deal for Bailey. If ready now guys are included, they are probably role player types with the better prospects in any deal being lower level guys.

Phillips contract is a huge problem IMO. If Phillips was 27, that contract wouldn't matter, but the fact that he's 33 in June and already declining and there are 4 more years remaining is really problematic with his skillset. I just think Phillips decline will be pretty steep. 2014 is probably the last year he'll be worth that money. 2015 will still see Phillips as a useful regular. 2016 and 2017, I expect he'll be more properly used as a part time or even a bench player. He'll be making $13 Million and $14 Million in those last two years. Nobody is taking that on without mitigating the risk. Sure the Braves will take him, but they want the Reds to take Uggla. The Yanks and Red Sox have no use. The Angels are already looking to dump their high paid guy who hasn't started declining yet to make way for younger players. Perhaps the Jays will have interest or possibly the Tigers. I'd guess the Tigers are the best fit, but it won't be Castellanos or Smyly in a deal for BP. Maybe Austin Jackson if the Reds add a significant prospect or two and the Tigers have designs on upgrading to Ellsbury, but I'd expect less. If the Reds could net one prospect who projects as a regular some place and get out from under the deal unscathed, I'd jump on it.

Hanigan is a fringe player who will either net a similar player on the brink of being non tendered who may fit positionally or a fringe minor leaguer. I'm hoping for something useful but not really holding my breath.

Chapman has the most value by far IMO, but the Reds should either move him to the rotation while dealing Bailey or deal Chapman directly (Castellanos and Rondon would be a good deal IMO). The Reds need to reallocate some of the money earmarked for the pen toward improving its position players IMO. Dealing Chapman for a cheaper backfill and a high end position prospect would do that (and allow them to sign another position guy with the money). Dealing Bailey with Chapman moving to the rotation would do the same thing. Dealing one of them is probably the best way for the team to improve.

[Old school 1983]

Disagree.

Bailey could net a star caliber player making similar money, but the rental nature of his deal probably means the Reds need to add a sweetener. If the return is prospects, I'd guess three really good prospects who aren't ready. I doubt a ready now can't miss guy like Profar would go in a deal for Bailey. If ready now guys are included, they are probably role player types with the better prospects in any deal being lower level guys.

Phillips contract is a huge problem IMO. If Phillips was 27, that contract wouldn't matter, but the fact that he's 33 in June and already declining and there are 4 more years remaining is really problematic with his skillset. I just think Phillips decline will be pretty steep. 2014 is probably the last year he'll be worth that money. 2015 will still see Phillips as a useful regular. 2016 and 2017, I expect he'll be more properly used as a part time or even a bench player. He'll be making $13 Million and $14 Million in those last two years. Nobody is taking that on without mitigating the risk. Sure the Braves will take him, but they want the Reds to take Uggla. The Yanks and Red Sox have no use. The Angels are already looking to dump their high paid guy who hasn't started declining yet to make way for younger players. Perhaps the Jays will have interest or possibly the Tigers. I'd guess the Tigers are the best fit, but it won't be Castellanos or Smyly in a deal for BP. Maybe Austin Jackson if the Reds add a significant prospect or two and the Tigers have designs on upgrading to Ellsbury, but I'd expect less. If the Reds could net one prospect who projects as a regular some place and get out from under the deal unscathed, I'd jump on it.

Hanigan is a fringe player who will either net a similar player on the brink of being non tendered who may fit positionally or a fringe minor leaguer. I'm hoping for something useful but not really holding my breath.

Chapman has the most value by far IMO, but the Reds should either move him to the rotation while dealing Bailey or deal Chapman directly (Castellanos and Rondon would be a good deal IMO). The Reds need to reallocate some of the money earmarked for the pen toward improving its position players IMO. Dealing Chapman for a cheaper backfill and a high end position prospect would do that (and allow them to sign another position guy with the money). Dealing Bailey with Chapman moving to the rotation would do the same thing. Dealing one of them is probably the best way for the team to improve.

I really think you could get big league talent for bailey or Phillips. In my mind bailey is still improving and has serious ace quality stuff. The kicker in the deal would be the draft pick you could get for bailey if he walks. At this point idk if profar is can't miss. I think he has done serious potential, but at some point he needs to start producing.

Phillips is still an all star caliber player. A gold gold glove player. 100 RBI guy (outside of RZ those still have value). A former silver slugger winner, and his decline in production last year can be reasonably aligned to that hbp. His contract isn't the greatest in the reds situation where some starting pitching needs to be extended and offensive help is needed at other positions. His contract would only be an albatross to another team in the reds situation. To teams that have financial flex room and need a second baseman, let alone an all star gold glove 100 RBI second baseman, Phillips would be a big move worthy of a return of legit big league help or nice prospects.

Chapman is the best raw arm on the reds if not all of baseball. He doesn't need to be moved unless the return is massive bonafide big league help. It finally looks like he may get a chance to start this year. I think his potential as a starter if he succeeds is enough to keep him around. My offseason plan would be...

Trade a combo of Phillips Hanigan cueto and Frazier for bonafide big league bats
Fill in the holes and platoons that are left trough minor deals with those guys or free agents.
Chapman to roatation. Sign a closer. There are a ton on the market this year.
Keep bailey. He seems to like price. Maybe a good year with a different manage can convince him to stay. If not we get a pick and Stephenson is in the wings

[Kc61]

I'm guessing with Arroyo likely gone that Bailey will stay. The Reds will continue to try and sign him. Given last year's pitching injuries it's just too risky to trade Bailey right now.

My guess is they will conclude that even just one more year of Bailey is worth having. Maybe with Price on board he signs, but even if not I'm guessing he's a Red next season.

Chapman is probably going nowhere. Trading his arm while still under control is very unlikely IMO.

So the big trade piece this off-season? Probably Phillips. I'm guessing the Reds are shopping a Phillips deal packaged with others.

Who are the others? With arbitration tenders due in December, I'm guessing Reds would include Hanigan and Heisey. Reds might include Winker (now that they have Ervin). Travieso.

Other possibilities for big trade? On the pitching side, I could see Cueto or Leake being offered. Reds could conclude Leake is now at top value. Cueto is tougher because his value is diminished by injury. But these are possible. May depend on Price's view of these pitchers.

On the position side? Ludwick and Frazier are certainly possible but neither will bring back a major player IMO. I see them traded only if the Reds have made other plans for their positions.

So I'm guessing the Reds are looking for that one big trade with Phillips as the key guy. I also see some additional mid-lower level free agent signings as likely.

[Old school 1983]

I'm guessing with Arroyo likely gone that Bailey will stay. The Reds will continue to try and sign him. Given last year's pitching injuries it's just too risky to trade Bailey right now.

My guess is they will conclude that even just one more year of Bailey is worth having. Maybe with Price on board he signs, but even if not I'm guessing he's a Red next season.

Chapman is probably going nowhere. Trading his arm while still under control is very unlikely IMO.

So the big trade piece this off-season? Probably Phillips. I'm guessing the Reds are shopping a Phillips deal packaged with others.

Who are the others? With arbitration tenders due in December, I'm guessing Reds would include Hanigan and Heisey. Reds might include Winker (now that they have Ervin). Travieso.

Other possibilities for big trade? On the pitching side, I could see Cueto or Leake being offered. Reds could conclude Leake is now at top value. Cueto is tougher because his value is diminished by injury. But these are possible. May depend on Price's view of these pitchers.

On the position side? Ludwick and Frazier are certainly possible but neither will bring back a major player IMO. I see them traded only if the Reds have made other plans for their positions.

So I'm guessing the Reds are looking for that one big trade with Phillips as the key guy. I also see some additional mid-lower level free agent signings as likely.

I agree. If Frazier or ludwick are included I think it'd be as an extra in a trade involving Phillips or a pitcher. Same with hanigan if he's not dealt for another non tender candidate. Idk if well see another platoon type move like Pena until we see where the chips fall after a major upgrade.

[mth123]

You guys are more confident that Phillips can bring something back than I am. IMO, dealing Phillips to improve the Reds current team only works if you get prospects and use his money to sign a better player. To get an established player who improves the Reds in a Phillips deal, I think the Reds would need to include three of their top prospects. One to get the team to take Phillips money and two to acquire the player the Reds are after.

[Kc61]

I agree. If Frazier or ludwick are included I think it'd be as an extra in a trade involving Phillips or a pitcher. Same with hanigan if he's not dealt for another non tender candidate. Idk if well see another platoon type move like Pena until we see where the chips fall after a major upgrade.

Yeah, the one wrinkle is Cano. Reds may have to wait until Cano signs before getting the max return for BP. This is a little bit of a problem.

Same thing with Choo. May take awhile for him to sign someplace. So if Reds are in the hunt, they may not know for awhile.

I'm guessing the Reds may pull the trigger on some smaller moves on spec. Basically locking in some guys (like the Pena move) sooner. The big trade may come later.

If the Reds wait for Cano and Choo to be signed before making moves, they may be out of luck on several guys. So the timing is tricky.

They also may want to deal arb eligible players before the December 2 date for tendering contracts. New teams for those players may want to navigate the arb path themselves.

[Kc61]

You guys are more confident that Phillips can bring something back than I am. IMO, dealing Phillips to improve the Reds current team only works if you get prospects and use his money to sign a better player. To get an established player who improves the Reds in a Phillips deal, I think the Reds would need to include three of their top prospects. One to get the team to take Phillips money and two to acquire the player the Reds are after.

It's tough to tell what the market is for these players and you read things all over the place.

Some people think Bailey brings a king's ransom. Others say, not so fast, he's a pending FA. I've read wildly different views on Arroyo's free agent contract chances. Phillips, I can see both sides to the argument.

The market is in the eyes of the beholder. My overall guess is that for a player like Phillips a good deal can be made. However it will likely require the Reds to take back a significant contract.

The guy I can see in a Phillips deal, involving several players, is Jose Bautista. But this could turn out to be way off on my part.

So many moving parts. Salaries. Contract years. Age and health. Pending free agency and arbitration. A team's desire to just get rid of somebody.

Very tough to know.

[joshua]

I think the Cubs got a pretty good haul for only half a season of Matt Garza. Here's comparing the two the last two seasons...I split Garza's numbers in 2013 during his time with Chicago and Texas so you could see exactly what Texas was looking at when they traded for him...then combined them, just to compare the two for the hell of it.

Garza 2012: 103.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 105 ERA+, 1.177 WHIP, 300 SO/BB

Garza 2013 w/ Cubs : 71.0 IP, 3.17 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.141 WHIP, 3.10 SO/BB

Garza 2013 w/ Rangers: 84.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP, 3.36 SO/BB

Garza 2013 Total: 155.1 IP, 3.82 ERA, 106 ERA+, 1.236 WHIP, 3.24 SO/BB

Garza was owed $10.25 million in 2013 total.



Bailey 2012: 208.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 112 ERA+, 1.240 WHIP, 3.23 SO/BB

Bailey 2013: 209.0 IP, 3.49 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.124 WHIP, 3.69 SO/BB

Bailey was owed $5.35 million in 2013. MLBTR projects Bailey to get $9.3 million for 2014.

Bailey is not only younger, has half a year more time left on his contract, slightly cheaper, entering his prime and has two no hitters (one in a notorious hitters park) but also pitched 104.1 more innings in 2012 and 53.2 more innings in 2013. Those inning numbers are absolutely valuable, especially for a team that expects to be playing in October.

Rangers gave up Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, CJ Edwards and a PTBNL. Their #2, #5 and #17 prospects going into 2013. So dealing a full season of Bailey could reap a return of much more. I just hope we don't deal him in a swap of rental players and instead get huge return in prospects. For a team that thinks they'll be competing in October and has a top rotation spot to fill, Bailey is worth it.

[Old school 1983]

Yeah, the one wrinkle is Cano. Reds may have to wait until Cano signs before getting the max return for BP. This is a little bit of a problem.

Same thing with Choo. May take awhile for him to sign someplace. So if Reds are in the hunt, they may not know for awhile.

I'm guessing the Reds may pull the trigger on some smaller moves on spec. Basically locking in some guys (like the Pena move) sooner. The big trade may come later.

If the Reds wait for Cano and Choo to be signed before making moves, they may be out of luck on several guys. So the timing is tricky.

They also may want to deal arb eligible players before the December 2 date for tendering contracts. New teams for those players may want to navigate the arb path themselves.

This is part of the reason why I think the reds should work from the assumption that choo will not return. Make upgrades to improve the team whether he's back or not so you don't get caught waiting. The canon issue is out if there hands, so they may very well have to wait to deal BP.

[mth123]

I think the Cubs got a pretty good haul for only half a season of Matt Garza. Here's comparing the two the last two seasons...I split Garza's numbers in 2013 during his time with Chicago and Texas so you could see exactly what Texas was looking at when they traded for him...then combined them, just to compare the two for the hell of it.

Garza 2012: 103.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 105 ERA+, 1.177 WHIP, 300 SO/BB

Garza 2013 w/ Cubs : 71.0 IP, 3.17 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.141 WHIP, 3.10 SO/BB

Garza 2013 w/ Rangers: 84.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.316 WHIP, 3.36 SO/BB

Garza 2013 Total: 155.1 IP, 3.82 ERA, 106 ERA+, 1.236 WHIP, 3.24 SO/BB

Garza was owed $10.25 million in 2013 total.



Bailey 2012: 208.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 112 ERA+, 1.240 WHIP, 3.23 SO/BB

Bailey 2013: 209.0 IP, 3.49 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.124 WHIP, 3.69 SO/BB

Bailey was owed $5.35 million in 2013. MLBTR projects Bailey to get $9.3 million for 2014.

Bailey is not only younger, has half a year more time left on his contract, slightly cheaper, entering his prime and has two no hitters (one in a notorious hitters park) but also pitched 104.1 more innings in 2012 and 53.2 more innings in 2013. Those inning numbers are absolutely valuable, especially for a team that expects to be playing in October.

Rangers gave up Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, CJ Edwards and a PTBNL. Their #2, #5 and #17 prospects going into 2013. So dealing a full season of Bailey could reap a return of much more. I just hope we don't deal him in a swap of rental players and instead get huge return in prospects. For a team that thinks they'll be competing in October and has a top rotation spot to fill, Bailey is worth it.

I think there is a couple of things here. First, Garza was traded in season when a team looking for a rotation boost didn't have a bunch of free agents or an off-season filled with trade possibilities to choose from. Limited supply of guys of that ilk drove up the price. This winter there are a number of options for a team to upgrade without emptying the farm for Homer Bailey.

I do agree that three prospects is probably realistic. My point has always been that they will not necessarily be guys who will help in 2014. Edwards and Olt didn't appear in the majors in 2013 and Grimm threw 9 innings for the Cubs. Those guys are a far cry from the Profar or the next Wil Myers suggestions I've been seeing. It's just not happening IMO. There are other options to keep teams from having to deal guys like that and if they are inclined to deal them, David Price or other higher level guys will be the target. Dealing Bailey for minor league depth that allows the Reds to deal other prospects for immediate help or to spend Bailey's money on the market isn't a bad plan. I just think the idea that Bailey is going to be dealt for a top 10 ready now prospect isn't realistic.

[joshua]

If Bailey were on the free agent market now, I think he'd be the top pitcher available. There are teams out there who have a high payroll and don't want to go for broke with a big contract, but would be willing to give up prospects and see Bailey as someone they can sign for the future.

I'm not so concerned with immediate help for 2014. It's not a make or break year in which the Reds HAVE to win a World Series. It seems like since the whole talk of the "Votto Window" came up previous to him signing his extension, the consensus among Reds fans and media has been that the Reds have to win a World Series, immediately and at all costs since we won't be able to compete down the road...and despite extending Votto that state of mind has continued. Future be damned. If that's how the front office sees things, then that state of mind will become a self-fulfilled prophecy. It's a dangerous road to go down for a small market team.

Trading for prospects wouldn't be a move for "minor league depth" but a move to keep us competitive beyond the next couple of years. Our farm system is weak and our payroll is high. The best course of action going forward is to deal strengths for prospects. Treat the first season with Price at the helm and a new coaching staff as a transition year, reload and plan to compete long term. At least that would be my plan.