David Holmberg

[bellhead]

Thoughts?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holmbda01.shtml

[redsfanhere]

jocketty has lost his mind. hannigan was our best catcher and he decided to trade him for a AA pitcher that throws a lil harder than soft toss arroyo.reds will regret this when hanny hits in the high 200 or possibly low 300. pitching staff will be affected by this move as well.somebody should take jocketty temperature.this team will not compete in 2014 if nothing else comes in the way of better trades.

[fearofpopvol1]

better question is...where does he fit based on current prospects? Somewhere between 6-10?

[Farnsie]

jocketty has lost his mind. hannigan was our best catcher and he decided to trade him for a AA pitcher that throws a lil harder than soft toss arroyo.reds will regret this when hanny hits in the high 200 or possibly low 300. pitching staff will be affected by this move as well.somebody should take jocketty temperature.this team will not compete in 2014 if nothing else comes in the way of better trades.

Oh man that's some harsh words. What would you rather prefer? Mesoraco on the bench/hanigan starting or mesoraco starting/pena on the bench? Clearly the former but I'll take the latter. I believe it's time for the youngster. And I'm a big fan of hanigan.

[RedTeamGo!]

jocketty has lost his mind. hannigan was our best catcher and he decided to trade him for a AA pitcher that throws a lil harder than soft toss arroyo.reds will regret this when hanny hits in the high 200 or possibly low 300. pitching staff will be affected by this move as well.somebody should take jocketty temperature.this team will not compete in 2014 if nothing else comes in the way of better trades.

What leads you to believe Hanigan with a career .262 batting average will bat .300 in 2013?

It's time for Mesoraco to get his shot. Hanigan was a complete liability at the plate in 2013, I am amazed Walt got a top 10 prospect from an organization for him. Solid trade.

[PepperJack]

http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html



The Reds were 39-27 with Hanigan behind the plate last year, with a staff ERA of 3.40.
The Reds were 46-38 with Mesoraco behind the plate last year, with a staff ERA of 3.40.

[Benihana]

better question is...where does he fit based on current prospects? Somewhere between 6-10?

That's what I'm thinking. Perhaps slightly behind Lorenzen, but right alongside Travieso and Lively, both of whom may have more upside but are also farther from the bigs. Likely ahead of Corcino, Rogers, Contreras and Moscot at this point. Barnhart too, although I'd expect we'll see him in Cincy as soon as Pena's deal expires, if not sooner.

[M2]

better question is...where does he fit based on current prospects? Somewhere between 6-10?

I'd put him #5 in front of Yorman.

[mth123]

Good pick-up. Better than I thought they'd get for Hanigan actually. Makes me feel better about life after the 2015 exodus.


2016 Rotation

Latos (Sounds like he wants to stay and I say it get's done)
Chapman (In his walk year)
Stephenson
Cingrani
Holmberg/Contreras/Corcino/Rogers/Lively/Moscot/Crabbe

On the way:

Travieso/Lorenzen/Garrett/Guillon/Cisco/Romano/Stephens/Armstrong/Langfield/Mahle/Jones/Boyles/Diaz

They won't all work out, but I'm liking the pipeline right now.

Need some MI help, but the organization is looking decent as some of these guys move up and fill in the upper level holes.

[HokieRed]

Excellent trade. Way more return than I would have projected for Hanigan. Only way to stay competitive is to have at least one starter coming out of the organization a year; this helps, as mth points out. Good outside the box, forward thinking trade by WJ. Much better to do this, IMO, than to move Hanigan for some marginal utility in 2014.

[bubbachunk]

http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

What are you doing letting facts get in the way of a good argument!

[Benihana]

Good pick-up. Better than I thought they'd get for Hanigan actually. Makes me feel better about life after the 2015 exodus.


2016 Rotation

Latos (Sounds like he wants to stay and I say it get's done)
Chapman (In his walk year)
Stephenson
Cingrani
Holmberg/Contreras/Corcino/Rogers/Lively/Moscot/Crabbe

On the way:

Travieso/Lorenzen/Garrett/Guillon/Cisco/Romano/Stephens/Armstrong/Langfield/Mahle/Jones/Boyles/Diaz

They won't all work out, but I'm liking the pipeline right now.

Need some MI help, but the organization is looking decent as some of these guys move up and fill in the upper level holes.

I like it. Might move Lorenzen up to that top category, as if he was pitching in AA in 2013, he should be in the bigs by 2016, starter or not.

Also you're assuming they let both Bailey and Leake walk? I guess you could sub one of them in for Chapman if Chapman gets traded and/or stays in the bullpen.

[Benihana]

Would Brett Anderson be a good comp for Holmberg? Certainly a good comp physically.

[RedsManRick]

I hope he's more Travis Wood than Matt Maloney.

[mdccclxix]

I'm anxious to see if his curve is really that "hammer curve" that he can locate.

[M2]

I'm anxious to see if his curve is really that "hammer curve" that he can locate.

His change and fastball are his bread and butter pitches. As I recall he does not have a hammer curve. He locates it well and varies the break, but it's certainly not a consistent out pitch for him.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/12/3/5171706/rays-reds-diamondbacks-trade-heath-bell-ryan-hanigan-david-holmberg



David Holmberg, LHP: Holmberg was originally drafted by the White Sox in the second round in 2009, from high school in Port Charlotte, Florida. He was traded to Arizona in the 2010 Edwin Jackson/Dan Hudson deal. He spent 2013 with Mobile in the Double-A Southern League, posting a 2.75 ERA with a 116/50 K/BB ratio in 157 innings, allowing 138 hits. He made one start for the major league team and was hit hard, giving up three walks and six hits in 3.2 innings.

Holmberg is a 6-3, 225 pound left-handed pitcher and right-handed hitter, born July 19, 1991. A classic four-pitch lefty, he works the strike zone with a fastball, slider, curveball, change-up combination, his heater varying between 87 and 93 MPH. His change-up is generally considered his best pitch. Although not a dominant sort, he's shown an admirable ability to eat innings without getting hurt, making 27 starts each of the last three seasons while averaging over 160 innings pitched.

He has no Triple-A experience and could probably use some time at that level. While he won't be an ace and his ceiling isn't exceptional, his floor is rather high and it would be a surprise if he didn't develop into a useful fourth starter.

[malcontent]

While he won't be an ace and his ceiling isn't exceptional, his floor is rather high and it would be a surprise if he didn't develop into a useful fourth starter.
I'm curious what exactly gives a guy with a "modest ceiling" a "rather high floor"?

Makeup? A wipe-out change-up? What did the Chisox (and apparently the Reds) like about him so much in 2009, to draft him in the second round?

[RedsManRick]

I'm curious what exactly gives a guy with a "modest ceiling" a "rather high floor"?

Makeup? A wipe-out change-up? What did the Chisox (and apparently the Reds) like about him so much in 2009, to draft him in the second round?

I'm guessing its having a few quality pitches that he can control with a track record of durability. But he's not going to miss many bats and will allow his fair share of homers, so the upside is pretty limited.

[mth123]

I like it. Might move Lorenzen up to that top category, as if he was pitching in AA in 2013, he should be in the bigs by 2016, starter or not.

Also you're assuming they let both Bailey and Leake walk? I guess you could sub one of them in for Chapman if Chapman gets traded and/or stays in the bullpen.

Since it's my fantasy, Leake gets dealt for a bat, Chapman moves into the Rotation in 2014. Bailey walks after 2014 with the Reds getting a comp pick and Stephenson/Holmberg compete for the spot. The other moves in when Cueto goes after 2015. Corcino, Rogers, Contreras, et al are swingmen, bullpen conversions a la Hoover and Lecure or the next guys up should Chappy, Holmberg or, heaven help us, Stephenson crash and burn.

[RedlegJake]

Holmberg has a couple things going for him - four pitches are all decent quality. Fastball isn't overpowering but unlike, say Maloney, it has late movement with a bit of tail. Out pitch is change which should make fb appear better. Slider is decent, so is curve. He needs a tad more consistency with these pitches but everything I've found seems to indicate they are good pitches when he is "on" with them. He also has pretty good control most times but can get a bit wild when he gets a bit out of synch - like he did for a couple of weeks last summer. Overall, he may have a modest ceiling as a mid rotation starter but he also is similar to Leake in that he is a fairly safe bet to be a major league starter someday. Body and mechanics indicate an innings eater, too, something with great value if he pitches just at league average. Getting a kid like this for Hanigan is a win. Also surprises me, somewhat. Jocketty isn't known for adding prospects by trading veterans, generally. Does seem to indicate pitching remains the primary focus.

[redsof72]

If you go back four years, the Reds had four rather similar lefty starters at different levels of the development chain. None threw as hard as, say, Cingrani. All had some similarities to Holmberg, and each of the four took a very different career path from there.

There was Travis Wood, rated at that time as the Reds #7 prospect. His fastball at that time was 88-91, and he was said to have the best change-up in the organization. He pitched in the 2013 MLB All-Star Game.

There was Matt Maloney, rated as the Reds #8 prospect. He did not make it as a major leaguer. As I recall, Maloney's velocity was more in the 86-88 range. He did not throw as hard as Holmberg.

There was Jeremy Horst, a guy who was never a top prospect. I always loved Horst and felt he was underrated. Horst had a change-up that was about as good as Wood's, and he threw about 88-89. Horst found his role as a reliever with the Phillies in 2012 and had a 1.15 ERA in 32 relief outings. He struggled with arm soreness in 2013.

And there was Matt Fairel. He was an 87-88 guy with a better breaking ball than the others, but not the great change-up. He likely would have pitched in the majors but had multiple arm surgeries and his career ended due to injuries without ever going higher than Double-A.

Quite a range there, from all-star to nothing, among four guys who were fairly similar, stuff wise. Holmberg throws a little harder than those guys and if the Reds think his breaking stuff can become usable, along with the excellent change-up, he will be interesting. Lets see which of those guys he eventually most closely resembles.

In more recent years, outside of Cingrani, the system has lacked much in the way of lefty starters. There is Guillon, who has yet to really settle in and show us what he can be (if anything). There was Tanner Robles, who has retired. There is Amir Garrett, a basketball player who got a huge check to play some baseball a few months out of the year, but has the best arm of any of them. And the "off the radar" guy is Wandy Peralta, who has a good arm and will face an important season in 2014 as he tries to take a step forward and establish himself as a legit prospect.

[mace]

Great post, 72. I'd already forgotten Matt Fairel. Didn't realize his breaking ball was so good.

A young lefty who intrigues me is Ty Boyles. I realize that you didn't mention him because he doesn't have the track record of the others; I'm just getting his name out there because he has piqued my interest.

On another front . . . One interesting aspect of the Holmberg acquisition is the way he slips into an area that needed bolstering--a young, high-level, somewhat accomplished starting pitching prospect, and left-handed to boot. The Reds don't have much near-ready starting pitching, and have been generally short in talent at the upper levels. It sort of parallels Jocketty's attempt to balance out the handedness of the big club. Pena gives them a left-right platoon at catcher, something that had been lacking with Hanigan and Mez. Schumaker and Bourgeois give them another possible platoon in center field. A couple years ago, the club was problematically right-handed, and it might be said that Jocketty was tardy in recognizing it. But he has. It really seems like he has placed a priority on balancing the club in all respects. Hopefully, we'll see some of that balance at the top of the lineup (in the presumed absence of Choo).

[redsof72]

I know they like Boyles, and although he was a reliever in 2013, I would guess he may be a starter at Billings in 2014. Another name way off the radar is Nick Routt, who they really liked in 2012 before he got hurt. Look for him in 2014.

Acquisition of Holmberg: In my opinion, you add as many quality starters as you can and you hope a couple pop, because you are going to have spots to fill.

Bailey is likely gone, one way or another, by the end of this coming season, if not sooner. If estimates are correct in that he will command a contract of around $80 million, there is just no way the Reds are going to keep him. I would try to trade him now. Latos is one year further away from free agency, and he will cost even more than Bailey. So he'll be gone too. When have the Reds been a player for free agent starting pitching? Cueto? Injury questions, but if he has a good and healthy 2014 season, he'll be gone too when his contract expires. The Reds have been fortunate for the last several years to have starting pitchers under contract, but the window on this group is closing. You need replacements. Maybe they will try to sign Leake to an extension and in essence, buy out his first year or two of free agency, similar to what they did with Cueto. I don't think Bailey and Latos are going to go for that.

So by 2016, you are going to have a whole different rotation that will include Cingrani, maybe Leake, and some others:

Wave #1: Holmberg, Stephenson, Lorenzen
Wave #2: Moscot, Lively
Wave #3: Travieso, Romano, Stephens, Kivel

Hopefully some more guys jump into those groups. You also have guys that currently are starters and may remain there or go to the bullpen like Rogers, Corcino, Contreras and there is Smith, Crabbe, Renken, Guillon, Cisco, and I am curious to follow Mahle and Armstrong. Maybe you get a young starter for Bailey if you trade him. I would try to draft a starting pitcher within the first 50 selections of the draft pretty much every year.

[malcontent]

There was Travis Wood, rated at that time as the Reds #7 prospect. His fastball at that time was 88-91, and he was said to have the best change-up in the organization.
And I never saw the great change-up after he arrived.

It's really my favorite pitch and I'll love it if Holmberg actually has one.

[Old school 1983]

I like the reports I've heard on Holmberg as far as his command, pitch variety, and his inning eating ability. It strikes me as off that the Reds would value someone who is a bit of a soft tosser who is susceptible to the fly ball. May not fare well in GABP. Outside of Leake, he doesn't seem to quite fit the Reds recent MO in pitchers they draft or acquire. I like the deal, but it partially makes me think Holmberg may be used in another deal down the line.

[Benihana]

I know they like Boyles, and although he was a reliever in 2013, I would guess he may be a starter at Billings in 2014. Another name way off the radar is Nick Routt, who they really liked in 2012 before he got hurt. Look for him in 2014.

Acquisition of Holmberg: In my opinion, you add as many quality starters as you can and you hope a couple pop, because you are going to have spots to fill.

Bailey is likely gone, one way or another, by the end of this coming season, if not sooner. If estimates are correct in that he will command a contract of around $80 million, there is just no way the Reds are going to keep him. I would try to trade him now. Latos is one year further away from free agency, and he will cost even more than Bailey. So he'll be gone too. When have the Reds been a player for free agent starting pitching? Cueto? Injury questions, but if he has a good and healthy 2014 season, he'll be gone too when his contract expires. The Reds have been fortunate for the last several years to have starting pitchers under contract, but the window on this group is closing. You need replacements. Maybe they will try to sign Leake to an extension and in essence, buy out his first year or two of free agency, similar to what they did with Cueto. I don't think Bailey and Latos are going to go for that.

So by 2016, you are going to have a whole different rotation that will include Cingrani, maybe Leake, and some others:

Wave #1: Holmberg, Stephenson, Lorenzen
Wave #2: Moscot, Lively
Wave #3: Travieso, Romano, Stephens, Kivel

Hopefully some more guys jump into those groups. You also have guys that currently are starters and may remain there or go to the bullpen like Rogers, Corcino, Contreras and there is Smith, Crabbe, Renken, Guillon, Cisco, and I am curious to follow Mahle and Armstrong. Maybe you get a young starter for Bailey if you trade him. I would try to draft a starting pitcher within the first 50 selections of the draft pretty much every year.

If the Reds extend Leake but let Latos, Bailey and Cueto all walk, I'll be tremendously disappointed. I'd think they could at least extend one of them with Latos being the most likely (but also most expensive). Leake just strikes me as a classic #4 starter. There's nothing wrong with that, but I would never want to lock that up to let three different TOR guys walk. I realize there are different price tags, but if the Reds can't keep any of those guys...

Agree generally with your "waves" although I'd think Lorenzen belongs more in that second wave, no? If Lorenzen is in fact destined to remain a starter, wouldn't it be assuming to expect him in Cincy before 2016 (along with Moscot and Lively potentially)?

Finally, any thoughts on Langfield?

[redsof72]

If the Reds extend Leake but let Latos, Bailey and Cueto all walk, I'll be tremendously disappointed.

Latos, Bailey, and Cueto are in different positions than Leake as far as leverage. There is no reason for any of the big three to consider a short term extension. I do not think you are going to "buy a year of their free agency" as they did once before with Cueto. That is not an option with them. It is with Leake. To make a greatly exaggerated analogy for the purpose of making a point, that would be like saying, "if they let Choo walk but re-sign Heisey..."

I just think this window is closing on this group of starting pitchers...those who are going to cost $80 million or more to re-sign. The Reds have never done anything close to that and I don't think they will. Those three are about to price themselves out of the Reds market. Next up to try to get signed will be Bruce, and that will cost an arm and a leg, way north of $100 million, but they may try to get it done.

The Reds have to pick and choose. They made their decision to use their resources to keep Votto. He is their superstar. That's why some of these arguments you read about Votto's OBP and so forth are so silly. For the Reds to be a World Series contender, you have to be able to say, at 11:00 pm on many nights, "Votto won that game for us tonight," not, "boy those three walks Votto got tonight sure were good at-bats in our 4-2 loss." I am not putting the blame on Votto because if he is not healthy or does not get pitches to hit, that is that. But for the Reds to be a great team, Votto has to win a lot of games for them, as he did in 2010 and 2011. They have invested what they have to invest in this player, sink or swim.

In their market size, you also have to have pre-arbitration players contributing, even if they are not always what you might hope for. That is why I don't get the constant barking from some fans at Frazier and Cozart. Those guys are making peanuts (relatively speaking) for a team that MUST have some guys in the lineup making peanuts. When those two guys are making $6 million a year, 10 times what they are making now, they will be required to carry more weight or they will be replaced. For now, you are getting value.

Sorry to get into major league topics on a minor league forum, but I like the folks on this forum a lot better anyway.

[Gallen5862]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_news

David HolmbergRank: 8 (Preseason: 9 - ARI)Mobile BayBears (AA)ETA: 2014Position: LHPAge: 22, DOB: 07/19/1991Bats: R, Throws: LHeight: 6' 3", Weight: 225Drafted: 2009, 2nd (71) - CWSTwitter: @David_HolmbergScouting Grades* (present/future): FB: 5/6 | Curve: 4/5 | Slider: 4/6 | Changeup: 5/6 | Control: 4/5 | Overall: 4/6
Holmberg has been well traveled since the White Sox drafted him in the second round in 2009. First, he was sent to the D-backs in the Edwin Jackson trade at the 2010 Trade Deadline. He worked his way from rookie ball to the Major Leagues with Arizona, making his big league debut in August 2013. That winter, he was dealt again, this time to the Reds as a part of a three-team trade. Holmberg has the chance to have four average or better pitches with good command of all of them. He works quickly and goes right after hitters, working both sides of the strike zone with his solid average sinking fastball. His fading changeup is an above-average offering and he throws both a tight biting curve and short, cutting slider. With good mechanics and size, he should be ready for the middle of the rotation very soon.

Other Lists: Top 10 LH Pitcher Prospects (#10)
2013TeamWLERAGGSSVIPHHRBBKAVGWHIPGO/AOSOUMOB582.7526260157.11381250116.2391.190.88Mino rs582.7526260157.11381250116.2391.190.88MLB007.361 103.26030.3752.450.38