Jay Bruce Needs to Bat Cleanup

[villain612]

My first thread! :beerme:

Anyway, as the title suggests, I think the Reds need to move Jay Bruce into the cleanup spot.

Sure, I don't think Jay is a natural cleanup guy - the 5 hole seems to suit him better - but right now, not having anyone to protect Joey Votto is seriously hurting our offensive production (especially with the loss of Choo). So in lieu of finding an actual cleanup hitter, I say put Jay right behind Votto - clump your two best hitters together. I think Votto will start seeing better pitches to hit and will start swinging the bat more. As it stands now he's taking a lot of walks because pitchers do not fear Brandon Phillips - to me, the only other batter in the lineup to fear than Votto is clearly Jay Bruce. Can't criticize Votto for getting on base because he's walking.

I know there are arguments out there about putting two lefties together but call me new school, I don't really care about that argument. Someone else stated in better in a thread in the ORG, but basing your lineup on a hypothetical at bat late in the games while sacrificing all the at bats in the first 6 innings of the game is nuts to me. Besides, Jay Bruce has led the lead in Lefty vs Lefty home runs the last 3 seasons (I think).

[Jefferson24]

This would be fine if they move Votto up to the 2 spot. Especially true if last years approach continues.

[Johnny Fan]

I think this is going to be a very interesting season. How will our new manager decide to use his talent. Personally I am already a bit scared with Walt saying Billy Hamilton will bat leadoff. I would rather see him hit say 8th for the first few months, let him get his feet wet before puting him in that presure slot. I would go with Brandon, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick as my first 4 to start the season.

[villain612]

This would be fine if they move Votto up to the 2 spot. Especially true if last years approach continues.

Honestly, half of the reason I think Bruce needs to bat 4th is to protect Votto in the lineup, so moving Joey to 2nd would basically nullify my proposed strategy.

As it stands now, as long as there's no one behind Votto to inspire fear in opposing pitchers, he will continually be pitched around. Jay Bruce is the ONLY other guy in the lineup that inspires any kind of fear so I think it best to clump them together. I can't criticize Votto for not swinging at bad pitches and taking walks. This will continue as long as he doesn't have protection.

[bullseye]

Bruce is the only guy we have capable of hitting behind Votto. No brainer.

[JMac84]

I'd love to see Jay in the cleanup spot. If it were up to me, I think I'd try Billy, Joey, Brandon and then Jay though. I think the 3 spot suits Brandon well, as he might just finally hit instead of worrying about his perceived role on the offense (your role is to try not to make an out, Brandon!). Jay looks like he's ready to be a force in the middle of the lineup to me, and I am all for getting your best hitters more ABs.

Billy seems to have the makeup to be able to withstand the rigors of the leadoff spot (though admittedly, I do not know him personally), and if he can keep his OBP around even .315 or .320, he'll be a run scoring monster. With his speed, that OBP will put him in scoring position (after steals and being able to advance on balls most could not) as frequently as another leadoff hitter with a .350-.360 OBP. I'm totally guessing on the math here, but it seems like an educated guess to me. I'll miss Choo as much as anyone, but I'm excited to see what Billy can do.

[ac084c]

I'd love to see Jay in the cleanup spot. If it were up to me, I think I'd try Billy, Joey, Brandon and then Jay though. I think the 3 spot suits Brandon well, as he might just finally hit instead of worrying about his perceived role on the offense (your role is to try not to make an out, Brandon!). Jay looks like he's ready to be a force in the middle of the lineup to me, and I am all for getting your best hitters more ABs.

Billy seems to have the makeup to be able to withstand the rigors of the leadoff spot (though admittedly, I do not know him personally), and if he can keep his OBP around even .315 or .320, he'll be a run scoring monster. With his speed, that OBP will put him in scoring position (after steals and being able to advance on balls most could not) as frequently as another leadoff hitter with a .350-.360 OBP. I'm totally guessing on the math here, but it seems like an educated guess to me. I'll miss Choo as much as anyone, but I'm excited to see what Billy can do.

You understand that a .315/.320 OBP is not good, right? Furthermore, it's atrocious for a leadoff hitter. Choo had a .423 OBP last year - and he only scored 107 runs. You're telling me that because Hamilton is fast and a SB threat he's going to score more than that while getting on base at a clip more than 100 points lower?

I'll have what you're having.

[villain612]

You understand that a .315/.320 OBP is not good, right? Furthermore, it's atrocious for a leadoff hitter. Choo had a .423 OBP last year - and he only scored 107 runs. You're telling me that because Hamilton is fast and a SB threat he's going to score more than that while getting on base at a clip more than 100 points lower?

I'll have what you're having.


I share your skepticism in regards to Hamilton batting cleanup.
Unfortunately, barring an acquisition, I'm not sure the Reds will have any other option.

[ac084c]

I share your skepticism in regards to Hamilton batting cleanup.
Unfortunately, barring an acquisition, I'm not sure the Reds will have any other option.

Oh I get that - I'm just saying, if he's happy with a .315-.320 OBP from ANY lead-off man, just because he's fast, well I think he's a bit misguided.

Thinking a guy is going to score more runs when he's on base 25% less just because he can steal second or turn a single into a double at will - that's reaching.

[No pants Mcgee]

Oh I get that - I'm just saying, if he's happy with a .315-.320 OBP from ANY lead-off man, just because he's fast, well I think he's a bit misguided.

Thinking a guy is going to score more runs when he's on base 25% less just because he can steal second or turn a single into a double at will - that's reaching.

99% of the time I agree with you. Billy Hamilton could be the exception to the rule however. Last season Shin soo choo scored about every 6.6 plate appearances. Billy Hamilton scored about every 7.2 plate appearances. Last year choo had 712 PAs. he scored 107 times. given the same PAs Hamilton would score 99 times, and that's with a .308 OBP.

Now im not saying that BH will be the same as Choo at the plate, but if he can get a .320 OBP and play plus defense his production will come much closer to choos than people might think. The bigger question for me is what makes me think Hamilton will have .320 OBP next year.

[EditTheSadParts]

Billy's speed is undoubtedly going to help his OBP, some seemingly automatic-outs could turn into infield singles for him. But how often will that be the case? I don't think it'll make a substantial difference, maybe +.010 throughout the duration of a season.

To get back on point, I do like the idea of rotating cleanup hitters, in the same vein as not assigning players to specific "roles." I just wouldn't try Billy there.

[RedlegJake]

Stubbs scored 75 runs with a .277 OBP. Speed does matter if its really exceptional speed. BH is even faster than Stubbs and a .300-.315 OBP isn't out of the question. I doubt he's any higher than that but even at .300 he should score at least 90 runs with Votto, Phillips and Bruce hitting behind him. That is only 15 runs or so behind Choo. A better season by Mes, Frazier and/or Cozie would help offset that little difference. I'm not worried about the Reds matching 2013's runs scored, I'm worried about being able to better it and keeping the pitching healthy, especially the bullpen.

[ac084c]

Billy's speed is undoubtedly going to help his OBP, some seemingly automatic-outs could turn into infield singles for him. But how often will that be the case? I don't think it'll make a substantial difference, maybe +.010 throughout the duration of a season.

To get back on point, I do like the idea of rotating cleanup hitters, in the same vein as not assigning players to specific "roles." I just wouldn't try Billy there.


Then why hasn't his speed helped him get on base better in the minor leagues?

[JMac84]

He hasn't done it at AAA yet, but his career MILB OBP is .350. His pattern has been to adjust at every level; it just has taken him some time. I don't know how he'll perform next year but I wouldn't bet against him to surprise.

Also, just to clarify, I was more stating that his speed once on first will allow him to put himself into scoring position more than any other leadoff hitter. Basically, he will score more per PA than some other leadoff hitters with a higher OBP.

[SweetLou1990]

Back to the thread topic.

B Ham, Joey, BP, JB, Ludwick, if Joey is going to be great at OBP, I would put him in the 2 hole

[No pants Mcgee]

This would be fine if they move Votto up to the 2 spot. Especially true if last years approach continues.

Big fan of this. Hes perfect for a 2 hole hitter. Good OBP, see a lot of pitches, good bat control, the list goes on and on. I think Hamilton and votto hitting 1st and 2nd gives you a lot of options, provided Hamilton gets on base at a decent clip. The only real concern is if he returns to the MVP power numbers he put up a few years ago, but thats a good problem to have.

[ac084c]

Big fan of this. Hes perfect for a 2 hole hitter. Good OBP, see a lot of pitches, good bat control, the list goes on and on. I think Hamilton and votto hitting 1st and 2nd gives you a lot of options, provided Hamilton gets on base at a decent clip. The only real concern is if he returns to the MVP power numbers he put up a few years ago, but thats a good problem to have.

Who's going to bat 3rd? Ludwick?

[No pants Mcgee]

Who's going to bat 3rd? Ludwick?
i agree you don't have a perfect 3 hole hitter if you move votto, but you dont have an ideal 2 hitter either if you dont. Personally i wouldn't be against moving Bruce up to 3rd. The big question in my mind in this scenario is BP. Hes likely to hit somewhere 2-4 if we like it or not.

[ac084c]

i agree you don't have a perfect 3 hole hitter if you move votto, but you dont have an ideal 2 hitter either if you dont. Personally i wouldn't be against moving Bruce up to 3rd. The big question in my mind in this scenario is BP. Hes likely to hit somewhere 2-4 if we like it or not.

I think it's a moot point of Hamilton gets on base at a 350-360 clip from the leadoff spot.

However, I think that's pretty unlikely.

[villain612]

Back to the thread topic.

B Ham, Joey, BP, JB, Ludwick, if Joey is going to be great at OBP, I would put him in the 2 hole

My overall point is that if you put Jay Bruce batting directly behind Votto all the time, then Votto's production numbers won't mirror that of a 2 hole hitter.

[SweetLou1990]

Ok, I'm not looking for the best numbers at the 2 hole, but the best line up. I posted my guess , the statnics can run the numbers, but my vote is the same as posted, with Votto 2 and BP #3.

[Red Hot Stove]

I also hope Bruce bats cleanup. I know Dusty was reluctant to have Votto and Bruce back to back with them both being lefties, but hopefully Price will be different.

[bullseye]

Bruce needs to make better contact if he is going to be a 4 hole hitter. That is where your RBI man needs to be and it is hard being successful when you strike out 200 times a season. Would rather have ludwig there.

[No pants Mcgee]

Bruce needs to make better contact if he is going to be a 4 hole hitter. That is where your RBI man needs to be and it is hard being successful when you strike out 200 times a season. Would rather have ludwig there.

I too would like to see less strike outs, but keep in mind Jay Bruce for his career Ks about 24% of the time. Ludwick about 22%. Not a huge difference.

[BluegrassRedleg]

BP in the 3 hole depends on being able to avoid month-long slumps like we saw last season, but I like everything else about that lineup.

[Ron Delancey]

I'm a huge fan of batting Bruce in the 4 hole with the current team we have. I would love for us to go out and find a true cleanup hitter, but that doesn't look like its happening.