Nelson Cruz, thoughts

[Redsville]

Where are you guys at with Nelson Cruz? Say we signed him for the amount of money we had available for the first few years of Choo, but not number of years? If Walt was talking to Boras about Choo, then there's money available. Now, I realize Cruz isn't Choo...but if its a 2 or 3 year deal for the money per year we had set aside for Choo, then that could solve some of the RH power issues.....

-Sign Cruz for 2 or 3 year/15 million, or cheaper, with significant incentives for # of games played and offensive stats achieved.

-Move Bruce to CF for 2014, while Hamilton gets more hitting experience

-Bat Cozart at leadoff, his stat line was much better post All Star break....apparently he didn't bat at all in the leadoff position in 2014, but his numbers for leading off an inning are pretty good, so that could be a good sign.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30466/zack-cozart-

I know there is a draft pick we'd lose on Cruz signing, but most likely will pick one up when Bailey walks next year.....mid long term, is that a wash, being 1 year apart...not really sure.

Would this lineup get it done in 2014?
Cozart (.280avg/.315 OBP/.715 OPS post AS break)
BP
Votto
Cruz (RF)
Bruce (CF)
Ludwick (LF)/Meso
Frazier
Ludwick/Meso

Rotation remains the same with Bailey and no Arroyo signing. Then in 2015, Stephenson slides in to the #5 spot.

Is that now too many right handed bats in the lineup?

I'm not sold on Hamilton yet..and fear he could be the new Willie Taveras, and we could all be fed up with him by June/July if handed the CF job opening day.

What I've done here is presented a possibility to run with, but admitting I don't have all of the answers, or fill in information here to truly analyze it, so feel free to add to this positively or negatively.

[bob jones]

On the other site I have asked ten times to sign this guy

[Falls City Beer]

The time to sign him was when he was young and just getting ready to use steroids. Not now.

[bob jones]

I dont think it effected Peralta, he is better than the Reds antediluvian alternatives

[Johnny Fan]

I don't think the Reds want to move Bruce out of RF, I think they feel he is comfortable there and a move might cause issues. Second, there has to be something up with this guy, be it the PED use or asking to much money or something to still be sitting on the market at this point.

[Falls City Beer]

He's 33 and will be asking for several years. No need to repeat the Ludwick mistake.

It sounds like superstition, but probably isn't: signing Cruz would work out perfectly for the Cardinals (they'd get the remaining decent season or two out of him then some stupid team would take him off their hands), but in the hands of the Reds would turn into a total disaster. Reds should stay as low risk and low cost as possible till their farm reloads.

[bob jones]

their offense will be unwatchable and unendurable

[Redsville]

Pretty sure he's only asking for 3 years right now. I understand he maybe quiet a bit different off the PEDs but in GABP should still be able to send it quiet a few times.

Moving Bruce to CF got suggested by Twitter to CTrent awhile back and he said that wouldn't be a big deal for him to move over. Does C Trent know everything no, but he probably has a pulse on the team and Reds thinking about something like that being done

[NeilHamburger]

Reports are Rangers may move Rios to free up some cash for Tanaka. He isn't great, but he is a lot better defensively than Cruz, and is only signed for one year. He could probably play center for Cincy. Any interest in him?

[Johnny Fan]

I have a sinking feeling Walt is happy with the Roster as it is, and unless offered a steal of a trade, is going to go into the season with what we have...

[Redsville]

I have a sinking feeling Walt is happy with the Roster as it is, and unless offered a steal of a trade, is going to go into the season with what we have...

You may be right Johnny. If he signs Bronson, he needs to have the second move already lined up, or he loses lots of leverage on whichever SP he is looking to move for CF or other help.

If that's the case, did we see enough improvement from Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier to improve the lineup you guys think? I know Meso and Cozart had better post AS break stats, Frazier regressed. If those 3 guys could actually put up numbers, we may be ok.

But I would much prefer and solid lead off guy in CF, or a power hitting right hander at some position and adjust from there.

[westofyou]

Getting old
Cost too much
Can't Field

It's 2014 not 2001 and Jim Bowden is gone, this guys is not a Reds player

[bob jones]

who is a reds player Hanrahan, Heisey perhaps they can reactivate Clyde Mashore

[westofyou]

who is a reds player Hanrahan, Heisey perhaps they can reactivate Clyde Mashore

Better yet why not look for the next Allyn Stout or Dode Paskert or maybe Brick Jefferson or perhaps Charlie Hexam.

Or if you want a statue maybe take a visit to the Rodin Garden at Stanford instead?

[bob jones]

How about Stan Jefferson or Reggie Jefferson alas Reggie traded before his salad days for the slugger Tim Costo

[Johnny Fan]

You may be right Johnny. If he signs Bronson, he needs to have the second move already lined up, or he loses lots of leverage on whichever SP he is looking to move for CF or other help.

If that's the case, did we see enough improvement from Mesoraco, Cozart, Frazier to improve the lineup you guys think? I know Meso and Cozart had better post AS break stats, Frazier regressed. If those 3 guys could actually put up numbers, we may be ok.

But I would much prefer and solid lead off guy in CF, or a power hitting right hander at some position and adjust from there.

I love Bronson, but don't see any chance of him as a Red next year. Once the issue with the Japanese pitcher is resolved, some team out there will offer him a 2-3 year deal, which the Reds won't so I don't see him here next year on just a 1 year deal.

[bullseye]

Cruz is always hurt. Not worth the cash for a part time player.

[JMac84]

He's been worth an average of roughly 1.3 wins the past 3 seasons (130 games averaged). That's worth about $7 mill/per on the open market. I'd much rather spend the money elsewhere (Latos extension?) and give Ludwick another shot. We don't need to block Winker or Ervin.

[Ladeda]

He's been worth an average of roughly 1.3 wins the past 3 seasons (130 games averaged). That's worth about $7 mill/per on the open market. I'd much rather spend the money elsewhere (Latos extension?) and give Ludwick another shot. We don't need to block Winker or Ervin.


That last part is key. The Reds really don't need to sign any OF past 2015. Ervin and/or Winker should be ready by 2016 if all things go well. (Fingers crossed they each do well in AA this year)


That's why I'm surprised at all of these ideas I see in other threads of trading for Kemp or signing player "a" for 5 years. The Reds just need a temporary fix @ LF for 2015 and a platoon partner who is cheap for Ludwick for 2014. Don't block Ervin or Winker in 2016. The Reds also need to free up cash for LT deals for Latos, Cueto etc.

[bob jones]

yeah the team looks good for 2027

[Redsville]

Some good feedback, I like that formula of how much a player is worth per win type deal, didn't know that was out there. If only teams wouldn't over pay that by 2x or more.

I hadn't followed Ervin or Winkers progress like I did for Bruce, Votto, Frazier, etc a few years ago. So maybe we are good to go out there in the next year or so.

At this point, maybe just get us a bonified CF leadoff either through trade or a remaining free agent. I'm not sold on Billy being ready yet, just my 2 cents.

[villain612]

It makes no sense to not be able to sign Choo because of the money, and then turn around and inevitably overpay for an aging Nelson Cruz, which we all know is what is going to happen.

I say pass.

[RealitySetsIn]

It makes no sense to not be able to sign Choo because of the money, and then turn around and inevitably overpay for an aging Nelson Cruz, which we all know is what is going to happen.

I say pass.

Everybody on the free agent market gets overpaid. Is what you're saying is that because the Reds didn't fork out 130-140 million dollars for 7 years of Choo that they shouldn't fork out 25 million dollars for 2 years of Cruz?

[EditTheSadParts]

At this point, maybe just get us a bonified CF leadoff either through trade or a remaining free agent. I'm not sold on Billy being ready yet, just my 2 cents.

Agreed, it would seem foolish to commit money beyond 2014 through free agency to fix a (hopefully) temporary hole. Cruz could easily hit 15+ homers at GABP in a single season, but we need a short-term CF solution to give Billy more time in Louisville. Plus, Bruce is a heck of a RF, there's no need to throw him out of his comfort zone defensively.

Unfortunately there just aren't many good options that fit such a mold.

[JayBruceFan]

Prediction: Reds sign Nelson Cruz for 1 year and 7 million

[PadsFS]

Reports are Rangers may move Rios to free up some cash for Tanaka. He isn't great, but he is a lot better defensively than Cruz, and is only signed for one year. He could probably play center for Cincy. Any interest in him?


That would be an excellent addition. Rios is also signed for a $13.5M option for 2015. He could then be used in LF alongside Hamilton.

Rios hit 18 homeruns last year and stole 42 bases so it's not like he could be acquired for nothing though.

Here is his contract:
■08:$0.735M, 09:$5.9M, 10:$9.7M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M, 13:$12.5M, 14:$12.5M, 15:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
■limited no-trade clause from 2011 to
end of contract (may block deals to six clubs: Arizona, Colorado,
Houston, Kansas City, NY Yankees, Oakland)
■if traded between beginning of 2011 season and Spring Training 2014, future salaries increase by $0.5M each
■if traded during 2014 season, 2015 option increases to $14M ($2M buyout)

[No pants Mcgee]

Don't know how much to put into this, but wouldn't shock me if he did take a 1 year deal. If he did Cincy would make a lot of sense. Yet to make a big move this offseason for cincy, and for Cruz he could put up big numbers in GABP.

Nelson Cruz - OF - Rangers
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, there is speculation amongst general managers that Nelson Cruz could settle for a one-year contract in an attempt to rebuild his value.
Cruz has reportedly been seeking a four-year, $75 million deal, but his market has been very slow to develop as teams are weary about his performance coming off his suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Taking a "pillow contract" to re-establish his value and then hit the free agent market again after the 2014 season would open up the list of teams interested in signing the 33-year-old outfielder, but would also be a sizable risk on his part as having an unproductive season would destroy his chances of a multi-year deal.
Source: Boston Globe Jan 5 - 8:37 PM

[Wishbone C]

Personally, I'd pass. If he didn't cost a draft pick he'd be worth a look but I wouldn't part with the pick for him if I was Jocketty.

[No pants Mcgee]

Personally, I'd pass. If he didn't cost a draft pick he'd be worth a look but I wouldn't part with the pick for him if I was Jocketty.

You make a good point. If you were to sign Cruz to a 1 year deal it would be a risk, but if he pans out you would be able to make a qualifying offer next offseason and get that pick back. With his history it is a major if though. Not sure if i would do it or not, but something to think about.

[V-Red]

Instead of Cruz, why not take a chance on Trayvon Robinson or Fernando Martinez? Both are minor league free agents with low risk and break out potential.

[PadsFS]

Instead of Cruz, why not take a chance on Trayvon Robinson or Fernando Martinez? Both are minor league free agents with low risk and break out potential.

I think Jerry Sands would be a solid candidate if we are talking low-risk players. He would be solid Ludwick insurance.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sands-002ger