Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #11

[RedlegJake]

Ben Lively pulls out the #10 spot.

Now we're into the second ten, starting with Prospect #11.

1. Robert Stephenson
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Phillip Ervin
4. Jesse Winker
5. Yorman Rodriguez
6. Michael Lorenzen
7. David Holmberg
8. Nick Travieso
9. Seth Mejias-Brean
10. Ben Lively

[dougdirt]

Moscot again.

[mace]

Barnhart's apparent ability to hit righthanders, in addition to his highly regarded defense at a premium position, gets my vote at #11.

[RedlegJake]

Barnhart has that ethereal quality of being a "pitcher's catcher" or "great handler of a staff". He has a very good rep for excellent pitch framing as part of that, a part of catching that is just starting to be quantified and shown to be more important than a lot of people thought. I wonder about the value in his switch hitting when he hits lefties so dismally anyway. Personally, I have Moscot and Contreras ahead of him but he is my next position player.

[PadsFS]

Any love for Juan Duran here? He was only 21 years old in A+ ball last year, hit 20 homeruns, upped his BB% to 9.9% and cut his K's down (slightly)...He got added to the 40 man roster in the offseason too, which shows that the Reds Mgmt doesn't want to lose him.

[mace]

I can understand Moscot here. What I can't understand is how he can pile up 15 votes while Sharky Rogers holds firm at zero. To me, that doesn't compute.

[RedlegJake]

Sharky suffers the fate of seeming to be underwhelming then he goes and gets people out anyway. He's the epitome of the guy who has to prove it at the ML level before anyone will really believe, no matter how successful he is in the minors. He is definitely in my top 20 though, and frankly at this point, any guy could be ranked higher or lower by a couple spots and I wouldn't blink...

[mace]

Sharky suffers the fate of seeming to be underwhelming then he goes and gets people out anyway. He's the epitome of the guy who has to prove it at the ML level before anyone will really believe, no matter how successful he is in the minors. He is definitely in my top 20 though, and frankly at this point, any guy could be ranked higher or lower by a couple spots and I wouldn't blink...

I agree with that, with two caveats. One, he absolutely dominated AA over a 2-year span: 2.13 ERA and 1.046 WHIP (which, in one respect, would seem to debunk the perception of "underwhelming"). And two, Moscot's stuff has never been described as dominant, or anything in that ballpark, and his numbers (4.03 ERA, 1.287 WHIP) would seem to flirt with "underwhelming;" at least, to a far greater extent than Rogers'. I can appreciate the merits of Moscot's bigger frame, younger age, and higher K rates. I'm just baffled by the 15-0 disparity.

[RedlegJake]

I agree with that, with two caveats. One, he absolutely dominated AA over a 2-year span: 2.13 ERA and 1.046 WHIP (which, in one respect, would seem to debunk the perception of "underwhelming"). And two, Moscot's stuff has never been described as dominant, or anything in that ballpark, and his numbers (4.03 ERA, 1.287 WHIP) would seem to flirt with "underwhelming;" at least, to a far greater extent than Rogers'. I can appreciate the merits of Moscot's bigger frame, younger age, and higher K rates. I'm just baffled by the 15-0 disparity.

That domination is what I mean, though. That he could be so dominant so far yet not get taken seriously is due to not being a "blow it by 'em" type of pitcher. Also he is a 28th round pick compared to Moscot and Lively - lower expectations, and then his Louisville performance was just okay - not as dominant as he had been at AA and below. I think he'll garner votes pretty soon here.

[dougdirt]

I agree with that, with two caveats. One, he absolutely dominated AA over a 2-year span: 2.13 ERA and 1.046 WHIP (which, in one respect, would seem to debunk the perception of "underwhelming"). And two, Moscot's stuff has never been described as dominant, or anything in that ballpark, and his numbers (4.03 ERA, 1.287 WHIP) would seem to flirt with "underwhelming;" at least, to a far greater extent than Rogers'. I can appreciate the merits of Moscot's bigger frame, younger age, and higher K rates. I'm just baffled by the 15-0 disparity.

Moscot is going to start. Rogers probably isn't. Moscot has a better #1. Moscot misses more bats. Moscot had an incredibly rough start to the year. If we simply exclude his first three starts of the year, he went out and threw 138.2 innings with 42 walks, 130 strikeouts, 3.50 ERA (yeah,those first three starts added nearly a full run to his ERA over the season - they were that bad). It is an easy case for me.

[dougdirt]

Any love for Juan Duran here? He was only 21 years old in A+ ball last year, hit 20 homeruns, upped his BB% to 9.9% and cut his K's down (slightly)...He got added to the 40 man roster in the offseason too, which shows that the Reds Mgmt doesn't want to lose him.

Not even close at this point. Duran made strides in 2013, no doubt about it. But he still needs to significantly cut down the strikeout rate before he has a chance to see any kind of success at the big league level. If he gets his strikeout rate under 25%, he will start to get more looks. Getting under 30 was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully he can take another step forward in 2014. Then of course is figuring out what to do with him defensively. Right now, he is a man without a position.

[M2]

Moscot is going to start.

But is he going to start in the majors? I'd like to have a solid reason for why he's not going to become a high minors journeyman. That's where most decent but nondescript college pitchers wind up. What's special about him that's going to bust him through the high minors ceiling and get him a major league career?

As an aside, the one guy you've really elevated for me is Ortiz. I'll still be voting Contreras next round (because Moscot looks like he's got a comfortable win here), but I'm 90% sure Ortiz is next on my board after him, in no small part due to some things you've written.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm still voting Contreras. Best arm on the board. Will pitch in the bigs, IMO.

[PadsFS]

Not even close at this point. Duran made strides in 2013, no doubt about it. But he still needs to significantly cut down the strikeout rate before he has a chance to see any kind of success at the big league level. If he gets his strikeout rate under 25%, he will start to get more looks. Getting under 30 was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully he can take another step forward in 2014. Then of course is figuring out what to do with him defensively. Right now, he is a man without a position.

Have they officially given up on playing him in the outfield or are you just saying he is so bad in the outfield, he'll never be able to play there.

He seems a lot like Neftali Soto with the bat (more walks, less k's though) to me at this point. I'd really like to see him hit 30+ homeruns over AA-AAA next year like Soto did in his age-22 season back in 2011. Soto was in the top 10 prospects lists after that season.

[RedlegJake]

I think I'll have Barnhart ahead of Ortiz but back to back or close. Too soon for Rachal, who I like but want to see him either add some power (doubtful) or hit for a higher average to go with his discipline and eye. I love Arias' tools but he's not putting it together yet at all. Duran is just so undisciplined a free swinger. Soto really busted for me. Waldrop needs to perform at the next level and LaMarre is a 4th OFer in my opinion, so as far as position players go Tucker and Ortiz are next. Scouting reports on Medina call his tools average so I don't know what to expect from him. Argenias Diaz, Felix Perez, Schmidt - too old to really be prospects. At least I wouldn't rank them this high on the list.

[dougdirt]

But is he going to start in the majors? I'd like to have a solid reason for why he's not going to become a high minors journeyman. That's where most decent but nondescript college pitchers wind up. What's special about him that's going to bust him through the high minors ceiling and get him a major league career?

As an aside, the one guy you've really elevated for me is Ortiz. I'll still be voting Contreras next round (because Moscot looks like he's got a comfortable win here), but I'm 90% sure Ortiz is next on my board after him, in no small part due to some things you've written.

I don't see why he couldn't start in the Majors. His stuff is good enough to do it and he has control. Not a top of the rotation guy, but a solid middle of the rotation ceiling for him.

[dougdirt]

Have they officially given up on playing him in the outfield or are you just saying he is so bad in the outfield, he'll never be able to play there.


He has a long way to go to even be a passable defender in the outfield. The parts are all there. He has plenty of straightline speed, his arm is outstanding. But when he gets moving in a non-straight line he gets clumsy and uncoordinated still.

[HokieRed]

I'm still voting Contreras. Best arm on the board. Will pitch in the bigs, IMO.

I'm going there next. Not a lot to choose, IMO, among Moscot, Lively, Contreras, and Rogers, whom I had in that order on my own list. All four look to me to have very good chances to pitch, in some role, in the major leagues. I guess my ranking reflects the judgment--admittedly only poorly informed--that the first two are more likely to do so as starters, the latter two, as relievers.