2014 Plan.....Now....

[Redsville]

Ok, we are coming up on Spring Training within a month, in the heart of arbitration cases now, and little to no movement in trades or free agency I believe we are right around 80 million right now, with a project 20-26 million more after arb deals are done. With this weeks articles coming out about Walt possibly feeling good about a Homer extension, assuming he is using money that was available for a Choo signing if Choo opted to come back here. It appears that Big Bob has room to go 110-120 million in payroll, I have to think this is because of the new tv deal kicking in.....

I'm going to try and stick with guys/news we've actually been connected to from Twitter, MLBtraderumors, Fay, Ctrent, etc, particularly with the 2014 plan.

Here is Cots Contracts for Reds link for reference:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/cincinnati-reds/

2014 before season
1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.

2. Sign Grady Sizemore to minor league deal for CF try out, not sure if he makes team for opening day if that deal has to be restructured for major league deal with incentives.

-I don't see a deal for BP, or a signing of Arroyo now, unless Bailey doesn't sign long term, they may settle on 1 year with him, sign Arroyo, which may open up room to try and trade Cueto.

-Is Cuetos contract still cheap enough, and he still good enough to be used partnered up with BP to get a LF with RH power back. Would the Bluejays be interested in this deal for Bautista?

2014 Deadline If Competitve
1. Find a way to trade off either Marshall or Broxton, to free up some of that bullpen salary. Trade deadline period is the best time to try and shop one of them off......

2. Need to free up some cash to sign Latos next offseason with a backloaded contract to not run consecutively with Bailey.

Hope for production from Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco to step up. I liked Cozart and Mesoracos production in the latter half of the season. Hope for a new Sizemore to play most of season while Billy still gains some more experience.

[SporkLover]

2014 before season
1. Sign Homer 7 years, with opt out at 5 year for 15/105, front loaded in first few years.

I'm sure the Reds would jump all over that.... but I'm not convinced that Homer would. They're going to have to at least match/best what Arroyo received last year. Given that Homer has front of the rotation potential and those guys have been getting 20'ish.... I'm going to say that number is way off.

[Redsville]

Yeah, multiple factors can come into signing extension with a current team, like Bruce, Cueto, Votto did. Does Homer like the city/area, does he just care about the $ vs being a competitive team, etc.

In addition, I wish we could get a chart for professional players signing these deals that would show us, if you make 15 mil a year for 5 years in Cincy what is the comparable $ amount say in a place like Dallas? I know Texas has the advantage of no income taxes, but cost of living is more. If you do a comparison of those 2 cities, making 500k in Cincy, the formula says you should make 525k in Dallas. But not sure if that is an apples to apples comparison for the way pro players contracts would be structured.

If you front load Homers deal of 20 mil first 3 years, can we afford that and sign Latos. I feel like Bruce, Votto, Cueto all signed on to reasonable dollar amounts for the city/area they live in. Probably could have made a fair amount more if a free agent, is Homer "cut" like that too as an original Reds draftee, we'll see.

[Wishbone C]

I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.

[bellhead]

I think Bailey will get the same 5/7 deal as Kershaw which allows him to become a free agent at 32 giving him the chance to sign a 2nd contract at that time.

I am think he will get right around 17 to 19 million a year on his first contract which is 85 to 95 million.

His 2nd contract will more than likely be a 7 year deal in the 140 million range, he will be 39 at the end of this contract, meaning he has timed his free agency perfectly. Put the two contracts together and he will get around $230 million.

The only for thing for him is to stay healthy during his first contract.

I think the Reds are looking at around $80 million a year on their new TV deal. Based upon the Cleveland deal last year and the Philly deal this year. The Reds are not in the Dodgers area $200 million a year when it comes to that type of TV money.

[mth123]

I think if I'm Walt I like what I have & I'm going to stand pat for a couple of months to see how things shake out. That is barring a trade opportunity that's too good to pass up.

This team, assuming health, should be good enough to stay within striking distance. I'm going to wait & make sure everyone stays healthy & performs at a playoff level. In the meantime along with evaluating my own team I'm looking around for other possible player's & deals.

Heading into July we should be in the mix, if so I'm checking out player's that are hot & being made available from teams that are out of contention. This is when I would look to make my move.

I'm looking at the Reds & see who is performing well, who's having a career year & who isn't performing up to snuff. Then before the trade deadline I make my move to plug in the holes.

This gives the GM the best opportunity to make an informed decision. If you trade for a player right now just because you think he's good doesn't necessarily mean he'll help much this year. The player could get hurt in spring training or have a down year.

Waiting till summer allows you the benefit of making sure your getting someone who is putting up good numbers NOW. This is the safest play for a small - mid market team & the one I'd be looking to make.

The team doesn't have to be World Series caliber in April. It just needs to be good enough to be in the mix. We already have that now so I wouldn't feel pressed to make a move this early unless something too good to pass up came along.

Besides if your just renting a player for the stretch drive it's cheaper to pick them up in June - July as you won't be responsible for the whole years salary.

Just keep us in the race till summer then we'll pick up the pieces we need. If you have that mindset (and I believe Walt does) then we're sitting pretty right now.

Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.

[Wishbone C]

Waiting also means playing 60% of the schedule with the 7 auto outs in the line-up that they have now. By late July, they may be looking to deal guys off instead of adding if they play with these guys all year.

You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

I wouldn't bet any money on it.

[No pants Mcgee]

You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

I wouldn't bet any money on it.
Yeah for auto outs these guys are pretty good players. I agree there Is a lot of room for improvement in the Reds lineup, but lets not act like these guys are total bums.

[mth123]

You mean essentially the same "7 auto outs" that have won 357 games over the last 4 years on their way to 3 playoffs & 2 division titles?

I wouldn't bet any money on it.

None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.

[Wishbone C]

None of those were won with a guy who failed at AAA playing CF every day and none were done with a guy who's failed as a part timer behind the plate for two years running getting the every day job. Only last year was with Phillips descending into his decline phase, a journey I expect to get deeper in 2014. The Phillips from earlier in his career isn't the guy that will be out there from here on out IMO. The league has adjusted to Todd Frazier and I'd expect the "swing at a ball a foot outside" Frazier from 2013 more than the stud from 2012. Ludwick is 36 by mid-season and coming off of a major injury that threatens his most useful tool - his pop. Cozart isn't even a question. He's a defensive minded SS, who is passable given his occasional power, but he fits better as a bottom of the order out than as a guy who helps the offense.

The Reds have never really played with this group of players. I'm sure some of these questions will go the Reds way, but this roster needs 75% or more of these things to go right for this offense to be competitive. I just don't see it happening. Votto and Bruce will be good. The other 7 line-up spots are likely to be real ugly.

Hamilton is a wild card. He may struggle mightily. He also may be a lightning rod for the offense. A successful bunt is more or less a double with him. So there is some uncertainty with him but I am certain he will bring elite defense with him.

Meso could end up in a platoon. But that platoon offensively will be better than what we had last year. Or Meso might nail down the starting spot if he can hit RHP. Either way it's an offensive upgrade.

Cozart is fine. Offensively he produces decent numbers for his position.

Frazier I expect to bounce back from a down year. Cueto is healthy. Chapman to get ALOT more innings and Price-Bell & the rest of the new staff to have an immediate impact.

Plus I believe Walt will pick up a RHB sometime before the trade deadline. Sooner than later if Ludwick falters.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the 2014 playoffs. I gotta a good feeling.

[scotly50]

This team needs hitting that can stand up to pressure. The last two years should provide a clear picture of where we need to make our moves.

[Lewdog]

I would never, and I mean never, give a pitcher a 7 year contract. They are always just one pitch away from Tommy John surgery and missing a year and half. Also with pitchers, there usually isn't a gradual drop off in production. When they lose it, they fall off a cliff. Just a couple years ago Roy Halladay was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, now he is retired.

Three to four years is all the Reds need with Bailey, then they have to plan on replacing him with someone younger and cheaper.

Baker didn't want Hamilton to play yet, Baker is gone, and the front office wants to see what Hamilton can do. Expect it.

[Wishbone C]

This team needs hitting that can stand up to pressure. The last two years should provide a clear picture of where we need to make our moves.

I agree we need to upgrade hitting. But I don't think it's necessary NOW. I feel it would be better to let the season get under way & see how everyone is doing.

Does Phillips bounce back from the injury he never seemed to get over last year?

Does Ludwick hold up? Does Frazier explode? Does Meso find a way to hit RHP?

Waiting till the season gets under way always you to see exactly where the holes are THIS year.

Then you can make a better informed decision. It doesn't help much if you use your trade bait now on a guy that gets injured early or has a major down year. After you fire your bullets to get that guy, then what do you do when he doesn't work out the way you thought he would & you've already used your best trade pieces?

I don't think Walt needs to be in a hurry, & quite frankly I don't think he is. We have plenty of time to make our move. He just needs to make sure when he does that it's a good one. And I'm confident he will.

[mth123]

I agree we need to upgrade hitting. But I don't think it's necessary NOW. I feel it would be better to let the season get under way & see how everyone is doing.

Does Phillips bounce back from the injury he never seemed to get over last year?

Does Ludwick hold up? Does Frazier explode? Does Meso find a way to hit RHP?

Waiting till the season gets under way always you to see exactly where the holes are THIS year.

Then you can make a better informed decision. It doesn't help much if you use your trade bait now on a guy that gets injured early or has a major down year. After you fire your bullets to get that guy, then what do you do when he doesn't work out the way you thought he would & you've already used your best trade pieces?

I don't think Walt needs to be in a hurry, & quite frankly I don't think he is. We have plenty of time to make our move. He just needs to make sure when he does that it's a good one. And I'm confident he will.

So if nobody hits and they struggle to stay at .500, how long into the season do you wait? The problem with waiting is that there is very little available until the All Star break. If this roster struggles for 90 to 100 games before a move presents itself, it may be too late. I think punting 60% of the season is irresponsible. A loss in May counts the same as a loss in September. There are three regular players who aren't question marks (and one of those, Zach Cozart, is a guy who won't be a plus for the offense). Hoping for so many questions to be answered positively isn't a plan. The team needs a known quantity for some of it's questionable spots.

I've got no problem moving forward with Frazier. He's probably worth his spot even if he only repeats 2013. The Reds are stuck with Phillips and his awful contract. Hoping that his awful 2013 is more about his injury than the fact that his prime years are in the rearview mirror is really all they can do without a major restructuring. But counting on a 35 year old Ludwick coming off of injury, a guy in CF who failed in AAA and a guy behind the plate who had an OPS below .600 against RHP 2 years in a row is inexcusable. At least one of those spots needed to be solidified with somebody with more established production. The fact that they've addressed those positions with Skippy, Brayan Pena and possibly the corpse of Grady Sizemore as alternatives to the in house question marks seems like a lot more hoping to me. I get the upside. Hoping Ludwick recaptures 2012 and hoping Mesoraco and Hamilton fulfill their prospect promise all make some sense individually, but collectively those hopes coupled with the hopes involving Frazier and Phillips is just too much uncertainty for me. A player or two with established ability to contribute to the offense isn't a luxury, but a necessity that this team ignored. Not looking for All Stars, but some proven production is needed. I get the suggestion to wait so that trade pieces aren't wasted on a spot where the incumbent provides a positive answer, but waiting is risky and could sink the season if all the questions are answered negatively. I don't like the team gambling with the season like that.

[Lewdog]

The Reds are going to do what they almost do in the every offseason. They sign a young guy or two that has been cut from another teams 40 man roster, then they give camp invites to a few older guys that are just trying to latch onto a team, and once training camp gets under way they will sign a veteran or two that might fill some holes. It's like a broken record but I've seen it happen so many times.

[Redsville]

I'm not sold on Hamilton being consistently productive at all. He couldn't bat for leadoff avg in AAA, and all he has is speed at the moment. I do wonder how quick Ervin could move up this year through the minors, and maybe even have a MLB debut late in the year. Is he our true CF for the future....

[Lewdog]

Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.

[ac084c]

Hamilton might start in CF, but he could end up back in the infield before it over with. If the Reds trade Phillips, or if Cozart can't start hitting, I see it maybe happening.

If he can't get on base at more than a .300 clip he might end up back in AAA.

[Redsville]

If he can't get on base at more than a .300 clip he might end up back in AAA.

I think this is the more likely scenario for him.

[Lewdog]

Damn there is a lot of Hamilton haters here. Do you realize how fast he rose through the minor leagues? Do you realize last year he was still learning a new position? Cut the guy some slack, he's so fast he could steal the batter's circle. :D

[ac084c]

Damn there is a lot of Hamilton haters here. Do you realize how fast he rose through the minor leagues? Do you realize last year he was still learning a new position? Cut the guy some slack, he's so fast he could steal the batter's circle. :D

You act like he did it at record pace. He's 23, not 19.

Noone is hating on him. But coming off a AAA debut where he had an OBP barely above .300 leaves one with more question marks than confidence - at least for me it does.

[Lewdog]

You act like he did it at record pace. He's 23, not 19.

Noone is hating on him. But coming off a AAA debut where he had an OBP barely above .300 leaves one with more question marks than confidence - at least for me it does.

23...that's like a guy graduating college and having two years of minor league experience. That's still pretty fast. But Hamilton has spent 3 and half years in the minors and some time in the majors.

If you look at Hamilton's stats, I don't see where they are so bad that people should be worried.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571740

In 2012 he has a .412 OBP with 155 stolen bases.

[mth123]

23...that's like a guy graduating college and having two years of minor league experience. That's still pretty fast. But Hamilton has spent 3 and half years in the minors and some time in the majors.

If you look at Hamilton's stats, I don't see where they are so bad that people should be worried.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571740

In 2012 he has a .412 OBP with 155 stolen bases.

2012 was A+ and AA. Each new level is an opportunity to hit the wall and it happened for Hamilton in the jump from AA to AAA. I just don't understand making another jump before he shows he's capable of the one he failed at. Handing him CF is a move that rebuilding teams do. Contending teams put production out there or at least a minor leaguer who looks to be ready with little left to prove at the levels below. Hamilton doesn't qualify. I don't care how fast he is unless he's going to have the same role in 2014 that he had in the majors in 2013. Let somebody else do the heavy lifting by getting on base and he comes in to PR. Otherwise, AAA until he shows he's capable. If he's going to make a bunch of outs, I'd rather it be in the AAA line-up where it doesn't hurt the reds.

[Kc61]

I just don't understand making another jump before he shows he's capable of the one he failed at. .

I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.

[ac084c]

I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.

The last time I checked, Major League Baseball was not a developmental league... unless you're the Marlins or Cubs or [insert another 5th place team here].

Yes speed declines, but it's not going to drastically decline from age 23 to age 24 (barring injury).

[Redsville]

I'm on board with the low risk signing of Sizemore....let Sizemore, Heisey, and Hamilton get starts in CF, with Spring Training determine the starter, the other 2 can sub in for Ludwick. But I think we'll find that the management will see and decide that Hamilton needs regular at bats in AAA for a couple of months to work on his hitting, or just getting on base more. Speed does nothing in the dugout.

[No pants Mcgee]

Im not 100% confident in BH making an increase in his OBP next season, but i won't rule it out. Especially if he can become a more consistent bunter i like his odds. Also he did score 84 runs last season with that horrid OBP. If he can just get over the .320 mark he could be quite the asset. Certainly a big if though.

I wish the Reds had more CF options, but as it stands giving BH the job until he proves he cant do it this year is the Reds best option.

I love the idea of Sizemore, but i have to say as an everyday player i trust BH more than sizemore. I hope walt brings him in, but i would have my eyes peeled for a plan C this spring. The question mark in CF could be the difference in postseason baseball for Cincinnati.

[mth123]

I know that you do understand it. You just don't agree with it. But it's not a crazy idea in this case.

The rationale is that Hamilton's speed is a declining asset. Put it in the majors now while it is peak.

Letting Billy steal another 80 minor league bases is just a waste of his abilities.

His defense seems ok already, more than MLB ready.

So the Reds are right now working on his hitting. Undoubtedly he's being taught to hit more grounders, bunt more, slap the ball around more.

Ideally he'd have lots more time to develop in the minors. But speed declines.

That's why the Reds should be doing all they can to add another good outfielder who can limit Billy's at bats, and also sub for Ludwick. As protection against overuse of both players.

That's the reasoning. Maybe it will work, maybe not.

He's 23. If he's the second coming, the Reds will only be able to afford him until he's 29. The speed will still be there. If he crashes and burns, getting all they can from his speed won't matter. The sense of urgency strikes me as artificial. It's about him being a guy to plug in for the minimum and nothing else IMO. It's a non-contender type move.

[Kc61]

The last time I checked, Major League Baseball was not a developmental league... unless you're the Marlins or Cubs or [insert another 5th place team here].

Yes speed declines, but it's not going to drastically decline from age 23 to age 24 (barring injury).

The point is, though, that the Reds have Hamilton under control and at peak speed for a limited number of years. They will want to use all of those years, or as many as possible, in the majors.

In Hamilton's case, his early years are perhaps the most important years because of the speed factor. They'd rather he be a Red at age 23-28, as opposed to, say, 24-29, or 25-30.

This is different than players with other skill sets.

And while it's not a developmental league, BH has already played a full AAA season. They are not promoting him from A ball.

While his OBP wasn't too good, the Reds can reasonably feel that it's time to face MLB pitching; work with the MLB staff to improve; give the team good defense; and pinch run when not starting.

I think it's a reasonable call on their part. Would prefer if they had more outfield depth to support him, though.

[Wishbone C]

So if nobody hits and they struggle to stay at .500, how long into the season do you wait? The problem with waiting is that there is very little available until the All Star break. If this roster struggles for 90 to 100 games before a move presents itself, it may be too late. I think punting 60% of the season is irresponsible. A loss in May counts the same as a loss in September. There are three regular players who aren't question marks (and one of those, Zach Cozart, is a guy who won't be a plus for the offense). Hoping for so many questions to be answered positively isn't a plan. The team needs a known quantity for some of it's questionable spots.

I've got no problem moving forward with Frazier. He's probably worth his spot even if he only repeats 2013. The Reds are stuck with Phillips and his awful contract. Hoping that his awful 2013 is more about his injury than the fact that his prime years are in the rearview mirror is really all they can do without a major restructuring. But counting on a 35 year old Ludwick coming off of injury, a guy in CF who failed in AAA and a guy behind the plate who had an OPS below .600 against RHP 2 years in a row is inexcusable. At least one of those spots needed to be solidified with somebody with more established production. The fact that they've addressed those positions with Skippy, Brayan Pena and possibly the corpse of Grady Sizemore as alternatives to the in house question marks seems like a lot more hoping to me. I get the upside. Hoping Ludwick recaptures 2012 and hoping Mesoraco and Hamilton fulfill their prospect promise all make some sense individually, but collectively those hopes coupled with the hopes involving Frazier and Phillips is just too much uncertainty for me. A player or two with established ability to contribute to the offense isn't a luxury, but a necessity that this team ignored. Not looking for All Stars, but some proven production is needed. I get the suggestion to wait so that trade pieces aren't wasted on a spot where the incumbent provides a positive answer, but waiting is risky and could sink the season if all the questions are answered negatively. I don't like the team gambling with the season like that.

It seems we both agree we need more hitting, but I think where we differ is on baseline. You seem to be of the mind the Reds could possibly struggle to stay close to .500. I'm of the mind that isn't even a remote possibility barring a major rash of injuries. Our pitching staff alone will prevent that & we do have some pretty good offense to go with it.

But I think most of us would like to see an impact RHB added. I also think you may be overstating Hamilton's OBP woes. The Reds are working with him on bunting probably as we speak. Some dismiss this as trivial or insignificant & in most cases it would be. But Hamilton has game breaking speed & a successful bunt is essentially a double so it's far from insignificant.

A big reason I'm iffy on making a move right now is the general assumption is it should be for a CF with OBP skills. But most impact bats with power are corners. If Hamilton can hold his own or even thrive but Ludwick struggles then that would change where we need the bat from CF to LF & really open up our options as far as adding a bat with power versus the assumed OBP with little to no power bat that comes with most CF's.

We do have Heisy who can play both spots but in my mind Ludwick with his age & medicals is as big a question mark as Hamilton. So I think it would be beneficial to let the season get under way to get a better understanding of just where we need the bat. If it turns out Hamilton holds his own or even thrives but Ludwick struggles then we may be looking at adding a corner OF with some HR power to go with that coveted OBP.

[mth123]

It seems we both agree we need more hitting, but I think where we differ is on baseline. You seem to be of the mind the Reds could possibly struggle to stay close to .500. I'm of the mind that isn't even a remote possibility barring a major rash of injuries. Our pitching staff alone will prevent that & we do have some pretty good offense to go with it.

But I think most of us would like to see an impact RHB added. I also think you may be overstating Hamilton's OBP woes. The Reds are working with him on bunting probably as we speak. Some dismiss this as trivial or insignificant & in most cases it would be. But Hamilton has game breaking speed & a successful bunt is essentially a double so it's far from insignificant.

A big reason I'm iffy on making a move right now is the general assumption is it should be for a CF with OBP skills. But most impact bats with power are corners. If Hamilton can hold his own or even thrive but Ludwick struggles then that would change where we need the bat from CF to LF & really open up our options as far as adding a bat with power versus the assumed OBP with little to no power bat that comes with most CF's.

We do have Heisy who can play both spots but in my mind Ludwick with his age & medicals is as big a question mark as Hamilton. So I think it would be beneficial to let the season get under way to get a better understanding of just where we need the bat. If it turns out Hamilton holds his own or even thrives but Ludwick struggles then we may be looking at adding a corner OF with some HR power to go with that coveted OBP.

I get it. IMO, where they screwed the pooch was at Catcher. Mes has had plenty of chances IMO. He's a lefty killer with iffy defense IMO. He might be more. I even think he will be at some point, but I don't gamble the 2014 season that it's now. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, AJ Pierzinski and Dioner Navarro are all three guys with weird names and lefty bats that toast RHP and were out there in the Reds' price range. The Reds should have nabbed one and made that spot a middle of the order platoon that would reduce the reliance on Ludwick. Instead we get AAAA Brayan Pena for more money than Hanigan made in 2013.

As for CF vs LF. I think to upgrade 150 OPS points from Ludwick, you'll need a guy in the .875 range. That's expensive and hard to acquire. I think the same upgrade from Hamilton would be a .725 OPS guy (yep, I think Billy will struggle to OPS .600 if you're doing the math).. Those have been out there and wouldn't have cost a ton in talent or money to add it. If Hamilton gets it together, that type of player wouldn't be a waste of budget or talent sitting as a reserve, or worst case, get's dealt again to recoup the talent expended to acquire him.

[Kc61]

Again, you can't forget last September. Hamilton had an impact. Don't see the advantage of having that in the minors.

The idea IMO should be to have Ludwick start 100 games. Hamilton start 100 games. And a third, solid hitting outfielder start 100 games. Give or take. That covers two positions, CF and LF.

The other games, Hamilton can pinch run. You spot him against the pitchers he is likely to hit better. Ludwick needs lots of rest, he needed it before his injury.

Unfortunately, that third CF-LF outfielder is not on the club IMO. Heisey isn't a 100 game starter IMO. So this plan hasn't yet been implemented.

But Hamilton, if used correctly, can contribute quite a bit. Not necessarily measured in typical OPS component stats alone.

[mth123]

Again, you can't forget last September. Hamilton had an impact. Don't see the advantage of having that in the minors.

The idea IMO should be to have Ludwick start 100 games. Hamilton start 100 games. And a third, solid hitting outfielder start 100 games. Give or take. That covers two positions, CF and LF.

The other games, Hamilton can pinch run. You spot him against the pitchers he is likely to hit better. Ludwick needs lots of rest, he needed it before his injury.

Unfortunately, that third CF-LF outfielder is not on the club IMO. Heisey isn't a 100 game starter IMO. So this plan hasn't yet been implemented.

But Hamilton, if used correctly, can contribute quite a bit. Not necessarily measured in typical OPS component stats alone.

But that impact was as a pinch runner. He didn't have the responsibility of getting on base in the first place. Want him on the roster as the 25th man who pinch runs for other players late in the game? I'm all in. Want him leading off and making outs 70+% of the time and adding a few more when he inevitably gets thrown out on occasion? Sorry, even if he attempts 100 steals at an 80% success rate, it just doesn't really add much value without getting on base or adding extra base hits.

[Lewdog]

But that impact was as a pinch runner. He didn't have the responsibility of getting on base in the first place. Want him on the roster as the 25th man who pinch runs for other players late in the game? I'm all in. Want him leading off and making puts 70+% of the time and adding a few more when he inevitably gets thrown out on occasion? Sorry, even if he attempts 100 steals at an 80% success rate, it just doesn't really add much value without getting on base or adding extra base hits.

You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.

[mth123]

You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.

I'm not missing that point. I just am not swayed by it. Where is the evidence that he had this impact on his team in AAA? Not really any guys with good years down there in 2013. I'd have expected H-Rod and Neftali Soto to blow-up last season if Hamilton really had that kind of impact.

[Kc61]

You're missing the point. He does more than that. When he is on base it puts more pressure on the pitcher and catcher. The pitcher all of a sudden has his attention redirected and it makes it more likely he hangs a pitch for guys like Votto or Phillips. There is so much more to account for than you are giving Hamilton credit for.

I also think that as sophisticated baseball fans sometimes we have to look beyond last season's minor league stats. I wonder sometimes whether the purpose of player development is to develop, or to get the player to have one year of good stats for his resume.

Hamilton -- who had excellent OBP stats at four levels -- has all the factors to be a good OBP hitter. A simple grounder can easily be a hit. A bunt too. He needs to put the ball in play, avoid pop ups, and he should be a solid OBP man.

It would provide fans with more comfort if BH had a .370 OBP in AAA. But I'm willing to give him a shot without that. Let him get 400 PAs plus pinch run and see how he does. Let the coaches work him real hard on his approach.

I see no more risk in playing BH than I do playing several other Reds whose chance for success lies in big turnarounds this coming year.

[mth123]

I also think that as sophisticated baseball fans sometimes we have to look beyond last season's minor league stats. I wonder sometimes whether the purpose of player development is to develop, or to cash in on one year's stats.

Hamilton -- who had excellent OBP stats at four levels -- has all the factors to be a good OBP hitter. A simple grounder can easily be a hit. A bunt too. He needs to put the ball in play, avoid pop ups, and he should be a solid OBP man.

It would provide fans with more comfort if BH had a .370 OBP in AAA. But I'm willing to give him a shot without that. Let him get 400 PAs plus pinch run and see how he does. Let the coaches work him real hard on his approach.

I see no more risk in playing BH than I do expecting all these turnarounds fans are expecting from several of the Reds' current players.

I agree with your last paragraph. That simply compounds the issue IMO. Knowing there are questions elsewhere, it would seem to make it a necessity to make sure any kid breaking in has passed all his exams (Billy with a big F at AAA IMO). I'd be fine with Hamilton if Phillips and Ludwick were 5 years younger, Mesoraco had already fulfilled his promise or Frazier didn't look so awful against RHP. The only reason I can see forcing Hamilton into the cesspool is that he'll make the minimum. I get not signing Choo. I've been the one cautioning about the payroll all winter, but there were reasonable courses of action, if not in CF, then in one of those other spots.

[Lewdog]

Hamilton showed in the few games he was in the pros last year how much of impact him being on base is on the pitcher.

[Kc61]

Issue is really academic at this point. Right now the Reds have few options. Let's see if they come up with another good outfielder, like a healthy Sizemore might be, and how they take it from there.

[ac084c]

Hamilton showed in the few games he was in the pros last year how much of impact him being on base is on the pitcher.

Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?

[Lewdog]

Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?


Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?

[ac084c]

Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?

Cal Ripken slashed .288/.383/.535 in 507 PA in AAA Rochester in 1981 prior to his major league debut that year.

I'm not sure you've got much of a valid comparison there.

[ac084c]

Every journey begins with just a few steps no? Cal Ripken could never have played in 2,632 straight games unless he played in the first 13 right?

In fact, if you want a fair comparison, based on skillset (prolific base stealer), let's compare him to Rickey Henderson.

Henderson slashed a modest .309/.430/.448 in 328 PA in AAA Ogden in 1979 before making his debut.

[Lewdog]

Few games is key. You're comfortable based on a 13-game sample size that he is the answer?


Cal Ripken slashed .288/.383/.535 in 507 PA in AAA Rochester in 1981 prior to his major league debut that year.

I'm not sure you've got much of a valid comparison there.

What do AAA stats have to do with what I said? The point is, you never know what might happen.

Brien Taylor was a "can't miss" prospect and we see how that worked out.

You can't just wait until a guy is absolutely raking it in the minors all the time in order to bring them up. Heck there are a lot of the times when veteran guys rehab in the minors and can't hit worth crap. Sometimes you just got to let a guy sink or swim.

[ac084c]

What do AAA stats have to do with what I said? The point is, you never know what might happen.

Brien Taylor was a "can't miss" prospect and we see how that worked out.

You can't just wait until a guy is absolutely raking it in the minors all the time in order to bring them up. Heck there are a lot of the times when veteran guys rehab in the minors and can't hit worth crap. Sometimes you just got to let a guy sink or swim.

That last statement is the philosophy of a 5th place team. Not a perennial contender. Which is the point that mth is trying to make.

[Lewdog]

That last statement is the philosophy of a 5th place team. Not a perennial contender. Which is the point that mth is trying to make.


No it isn't, especially when it is only one position. What do you expect the Reds to do? Go out and over pay some worn down guy to play for a year? They can't go out and get a guy in his prime and leave Hamilton with no place to play. Take all the options and weigh them, giving Hamilton a shot is the most logical, cost effective, and has the most upside of any.

[ac084c]

No it isn't, especially when it is only one position. What do you expect the Reds to do? Go out and over pay some worn down guy to play for a year? They can't go out and get a guy in his prime and leave Hamilton with no place to play. Take all the options and weigh them, giving Hamilton a shot is the most logical, cost effective, and has the most upside of any.

That'd be true if there was only one position to worry about. But 3B, SS, C and to a lesser extent, LF and 2B should all be cause for concern.

The only areas where there aren't big question marks or guys in full decline are RF and 1B.

[Lewdog]

That'd be true if there was only one position to worry about. But 3B, SS, C and to a lesser extent, LF and 2B should all be cause for concern.

The only areas where there aren't big question marks or guys in full decline are RF and 1B.

Everyone is ready to give up on Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco...I just don't get it. LF? We all know that the Reds are going to man it like last year until one of the young guys in the minors are ready, a platoon of vets and guys who are only good against righties or lefties. We all know Phillips will be playing 2B next year, and he will be the same old Phillips making highlights and flipping his bat.

[ac084c]

Everyone is ready to give up on Frazier, Cozart, and Mesoraco...I just don't get it. LF? We all know that the Reds are going to man it like last year until one of the young guys in the minors are ready, a platoon of vets and guys who are only good against righties or lefties. We all know Phillips will be playing 2B next year, and he will be the same old Phillips making highlights and flipping his bat.


Phillips wasn't the same old Phillips in 2013. He's declining, and declining pretty hard.

[Lewdog]

Phillips wasn't the same old Phillips in 2013. He's declining, and declining pretty hard.


If a guy sits out because he has nagging injuries he is a wussy, if he plays hurt and his numbers aren't up to his normal healthy ones, he is in decline. The guy can't win!

[Old school 1983]

If a guy sits out because he has nagging injuries he is a wussy, if he plays hurt and his numbers aren't up to his normal healthy ones, he is in decline. The guy can't win!

I don't think he's the player he was 5 years ago, but people think Phillips is in some sort of free fall. Easy to forget he was having an excellent 2013 until his hbp injury.

People are seriously under projecting Phillips, Ludwick, Mesoraco, and Hamilton.

[mth123]

If a guy sits out because he has nagging injuries he is a wussy, if he plays hurt and his numbers aren't up to his normal healthy ones, he is in decline. The guy can't win!

Phillips will be 33. His prime seasons are behind him. He's been in decline for 3 years running. I'm sure nagging injuries have something to do with it. As he ages the nagging injuries are just going to happen more often and last longer when they do. The theory is that last year he was hit by a pitch that he just never got over. Assuming that's the whole story (which I don't buy) , I wonder if the Phillips of 5 years ago would have got over it.

In 2014 it will be something else. Age does that.

BTW, handing a prospect that isn't ready and hasn't won the job with success at the previous level is exactly what rebuilding teams do. Contending teams find production. If Hamilton steps up, having two talented guys never cost a team a championship. Much prefer that problem to the likelihood of having no one adequate to play.

[Lewdog]

Phillips will be 33. His prime seasons are behind him. He's been in decline for 3 years running. I'm sure nagging injuries have something to do with it. As he ages the nagging injuries are just going to happen more often and last longer when they do. The theory is that last year he was hit by a pitch that he just never got over. Assuming that's the whole story (which I don't buy) , I wonder if the Phillips of 5 years ago would have got over it.

In 2014 it will be something else. Age does that.

BTW, handing a prospect that isn't ready and hasn't won the job with success at the previous level is exactly what rebuilding teams do. Contending teams find production. If Hamilton steps up, having two talented guys never cost a team a championship. Much prefer that problem to the likelihood of having no one adequate to play.

I've seen contending teams have young players come out of no where and be a productive part of the team all the time. Getting production out of unexpected players is often what makes contending teams the top teams in the league.

By the way, though I'm defending the Reds players, but if you knew me from other boards, like the Bengals boards, you would know I'm not anywhere close to being a 'homer.' I shoot straight from the hip with my opinions.

[RedsAndCatsFan]

I know I'm in the heavy minority but I really like what we've done this offseason. I think this team could go either way on being a top NL team or middling all season. This gives Walt the chance to see how the season goes before deciding to mortgage the future to win this year or try and sell some of the older guys/expiring contracts off and do a quick on-the-fly rebuild for next year. My guess on this year is that we're fighting for the Wild Card. But there's nothing wrong with that. You guys hate when anyone brings the Cardinals up, but they proved in 2011 and 2012 that being a wild card is just fine. If we get in the tournament, it'll probably mean we added some pieces towards the end. In that case, I like our chances with our pitching against any team.

[mth123]

I've seen contending teams have young players come out of no where and be a productive part of the team all the time. Getting production out of unexpected players is often what makes contending teams the top teams in the league.

By the way, though I'm defending the Reds players, but if you knew me from other boards, like the Bengals boards, you would know I'm not anywhere close to being a 'homer.' I shoot straight from the hip with my opinions.

Baseball is great that way. Unexpected guys come out of nowhere and change the landscape. The problem is that the Reds are handing the kid CF an the lead-off job. That isn't some surprise coming along and wowing us. That is taking a kid who struggled against inferior competition and counting on him to be an impact guy in the majors.

Had the Reds acquired a stop gap while Hamilton took another shot at AAA and then came-up as a game changer, that would fit the story you're selling.

[mth123]

I know I'm in the heavy minority but I really like what we've done this offseason. I think this team could go either way on being a top NL team or middling all season. This gives Walt the chance to see how the season goes before deciding to mortgage the future to win this year or try and sell some of the older guys/expiring contracts off and do a quick on-the-fly rebuild for next year. My guess on this year is that we're fighting for the Wild Card. But there's nothing wrong with that. You guys hate when anyone brings the Cardinals up, but they proved in 2011 and 2012 that being a wild card is just fine. If we get in the tournament, it'll probably mean we added some pieces towards the end. In that case, I like our chances with our pitching against any team.

Welcome to the board, but nobody is suggesting that anyone mortgage the future. In fact, throwing Hamilton to the wolves before he's ready may be more risky for the future than anything I'm suggesting.

[Lewdog]

Baseball is great that way. Unexpected guys come out of nowhere and change the landscape. The problem is that the Reds are handing the kid CF an the lead-off job. That isn't some surprise coming along and wowing us. That is taking a kid who struggled against inferior competition and counting on him to be an impact guy in the majors.

Had the Reds acquired a stop gap while Hamilton took another shot at AAA and then came-up as a game changer, that would fit the story you're selling.

I'm going to give you the stats and you name the player, these stats are all in the same year.

Single A 17 HR 84 RBI .324 Avg .389 OBP
Single A+ 2 HR 10 RBI .284 Avg .341 OBP
Triple A 0 HR 2 RBI .214 Avg .267 OBP

I'll give you a hint, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer. By looking at those stats, and those are all of his minor league stats, do you think he deserved to start in the majors the next year?

[Lewdog]

Do you guys give up?

[ac084c]

I'm going to give you the stats and you name the player, these stats are all in the same year.

Single A 17 HR 84 RBI .324 Avg .389 OBP
Single A+ 2 HR 10 RBI .284 Avg .341 OBP
Triple A 0 HR 2 RBI .214 Avg .267 OBP

I'll give you a hint, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer. By looking at those stats, and those are all of his minor league stats, do you think he deserved to start in the majors the next year?

I need more context. How did he hit the spring before he made the jump to the majors. Did he get called up by a contending team? What position did he play?

It's somewhat rhetorical given that this is most likely an isolated occurrence anyway. By and large guys aren't called up if they don't excel in the minors, unless they're playing for teams that aren't contending.

[mth123]

I'm going to give you the stats and you name the player, these stats are all in the same year.

Single A 17 HR 84 RBI .324 Avg .389 OBP
Single A+ 2 HR 10 RBI .284 Avg .341 OBP
Triple A 0 HR 2 RBI .214 Avg .267 OBP

I'll give you a hint, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer. By looking at those stats, and those are all of his minor league stats, do you think he deserved to start in the majors the next year?

No

[Lewdog]

Those stats are the minor league stats for Albert Pujols.

[No pants Mcgee]

Those stats are the minor league stats for Albert Pujols.

I get where you're coming from, but its a little different. Pujols had 14 AAA at bats that year. BH played a full season with bad results at AAA.

Personally I think BH could surprise a lot of people this year, but you're making the wrong comparison

[Lewdog]

I get where you're coming from, but its a little different. Pujols had 14 AAA at bats that year. BH played a full season with bad results at AAA.

Personally I think BH could surprise a lot of people this year, but you're making the wrong comparison

But Pujols had some at bats in Single A+ and wasn't all that great.

Just give Hamilton a shot, he is going to surprise people.

[No pants Mcgee]

But Pujols had some at bats in Single A+ and wasn't all that great.

Just give Hamilton a shot, he is going to surprise people.

His high A numbers weren't too shabby in my opinion.

I've been saying for a while now that BH has a chance to surpass expectations. Should be a huge defensive improvement. Then also if he can just work on the little things i.e. bunting he becomes a little more dangerous. Also people need to look at his splits last season. Last season he got off to a miserable start hitting .205 after the first month of the season. Take away the month of april and his stats start looking a bit more respectable. Granted most players you take away the worst month of the season and they have much better numbers, but I think a slow start is probably a fairly common occurrence when a player moves up through the minors.

I agree billie has the best chance to succeed of any CF on the reds roster right now. The Pujols comparison is just a bit off though.

[mth123]

But Pujols had some at bats in Single A+ and wasn't all that great.

Just give Hamilton a shot, he is going to surprise people.

The fact that doing well would surprise people is exactly why he shouldn't be handed a job.

[ac084c]

But Pujols had some at bats in Single A+ and wasn't all that great.

Just give Hamilton a shot, he is going to surprise people.

Pujols hit incredibly well that summer in spring training, and in spite of that he wasn't going to make the 25-man roster. An injury to Bobby Bonilla gave him his shot, and he took advantage of that.

And he is not a first-ballot hall of famer yet.

[ac084c]

You also fail to mention that all of his minor league stats are from one season (2000) in which he jumped from A-ball to AAA.

His AAA numbers are completely irrelevant considering he only played in 3 games (15 PA).

His overall minors numbers that year through 3 levels were .314/.378/.543 which was enough to merit a spring invite in 2001. Had Bonilla not been injured he most certainly would have started the season in AAA (but probably would have seen an early call up).

[Lewdog]

Pujols hit incredibly well that summer in spring training, and in spite of that he wasn't going to make the 25-man roster. An injury to Bobby Bonilla gave him his shot, and he took advantage of that.

And he is not a first-ballot hall of famer yet.

Ha! Not a first ballot? A career .321 Avg, a career, .410 OBP a career 1.009 OPS, oh and 492 HR 1498 RBI, not to mention his long list of awards...3 time NL MVP alone would get him in.

[ac084c]

Ha! Not a first ballot? A career .321 Avg, a career, .410 OBP a career 1.009 OPS, oh and 492 HR 1498 RBI, not to mention his long list of awards...3 time NL MVP alone would get him in.

I agree, his resume looks like he's a lock, but he's not in yet, and the way the voters are treating players in this era... you never know.

Plus he's got 8 years left on his ridiculous contract. If he plays it out (not likely), he won't even appear on the ballot until 2026.

[scotly50]

I say give Hamilton a shot in center and work on the other holes.