Redzone Minor League Prospect Ranking #20

[RedlegJake]

Jeremy Kivel wins a runoff vote for the 19th ranking. On to the 20th pick.

[dougdirt]

Amir Garrett. Lefties like that don't grow on trees. Give me his upside here.

[mth123]

Probably on my own here, but Drew Cisco for me.

[M2]

Mahle, who's every bit the prospect that Kivel is.

[PepperJack]

I went with Stephens here. I like him as a sleeper pick this season. Same age as Travieso, picked much later, had similar numbers in Dayton this past season.(Travieso had more innings, while Stephens the higher K/9)

I understand the cases for other players here though too.

I wish I knew more about Medina, as well as Constante, and the legend of Jonathan Perez.

[RedlegJake]

Constante is the real deal, a lefty at 6-4 215 with a fb that touches the mid 90s, a cutter that is really good, a plus curveball and a developing change up. Needs to work on his control and consistency with his breaking stuff and change. Sometimes throws through his curve flattening its break, change is good at times but it's still inconsistent. In the DSL in 2013, he was dominating. 38 IP 55 Ks 28 hits but 22 walks. Should be in AZL/Billings in 2014, maybe Dayton. If he continues to progress he'll fly up the rankings.

Medina, wait and see for me...scouts seem to vary on high they are on him. Some say average across the board, some say plus tools. Evidently he's no Puig or Cespedes. Hopefully he's better than Felix Perez.

Jonahan Perez, not to be confused with the released 3Bman of the same name, is a mystery - he was terrible in the AZL in 2012, then nothing in 2013. I don;t know if he was injured or just going through instructional stuff without competing in the league, or back in DSL? Maybe Doug knows...signed as a 16 y/o, he'll be 19 this summer.

[mdccclxix]

If I didn't get on the Armstrong train, I might be headed to Waldrop, Mahle, Ravin, or Thompson-ville. I don't have much hope or taste for Garrett or Guillion. Don't know when I'd vote for them, maybe late 20's to mid 30's. Sometimes I feel like Garrett just took the money and ran.

[RedlegJake]

Guillon's problem is simply that he is going to run out of time to develop thanks to re-writing his original contract. He has 2 more years and then he is out of options. He's in low A and struggled mightily with his control especially early. Hopefully he makes significant strides this year or the Reds may simply be developing him for someone else to reap the benefits.

[HokieRed]

Nomination for candidacy: Alejandro Chacin, 44 appearances last year at Dayton, all relief. 65 innings / 42 h /33 W /72 K /1.15 WHIP. .181 BA against. This as a guy who turned 20 in June, 13. Compares very favorably to the season Contreras had at Dayton in 2012 while a year and a half older. (50.1 /29 /19 /51/ .158 against)

[marcshoe]

Oops. Accidental vote for Muhammad. I need to watch what I'm doing with the arrows.

[Kc61]

Voting for Juan Duran soon. I know he's not much of a defender. But a player with the most power in the system who had a nice season deserves top 25 status.

[dougdirt]

Nomination for candidacy: Alejandro Chacin, 44 appearances last year at Dayton, all relief. 65 innings / 42 h /33 W /72 K /1.15 WHIP. .181 BA against. This as a guy who turned 20 in June, 13. Compares very favorably to the season Contreras had at Dayton in 2012 while a year and a half older. (50.1 /29 /19 /51/ .158 against)

Numbers may compare, but the stuff doesn't. I am a big Chacin fan though. Probably the best movement on a fastball that I saw from a Reds minor leaguer this season.

[RedlegJake]

Adding Chacin to the next list, along with Jon Matthews. Also cleaned my master list somewhat, removing a couple players who've been released.

[WrongVerb]

Hey Doug, what do you know about Luis Gonzalez? Played in the DOSL last season and posted a 15.67/1 K/BB rate in 48IP.

[RedlegJake]

Gonzalez is a strikingingly thin lefty (think Guidry like) with a startling grounder/pop up to flyball rate. 71 grounders/pop ups to 39 flies and just 6 line drives. 3 walks in 48 innings with 47 strikeouts. Just 1 home run and 4 doubles allowed. 30 total hits. WHIP 0.769. That is 42 total bases in 48 innings counting walks, HBP and extra base hits. Less than 1 TB per inning!! TBIP less than 1 is really remarkable. A bit old for a DSL prospect at 21 in 2014. I don't know this kid's story, why he isn't already in the states (Visa problems?) but he flat out dominated the DSL. Of course, taking too much from 48 innings in the DSL is not a great idea but I'd love to see this guy in Billings or Dayton this year.

[lollipopcurve]

Guillon's problem is simply that he is going to run out of time to develop thanks to re-writing his original contract. He has 2 more years and then he is out of options. He's in low A and struggled mightily with his control especially early. Hopefully he makes significant strides this year or the Reds may simply be developing him for someone else to reap the benefits.

Good progress in the second half of 2013. If that continues, two years is enough time for him to be at least close. He's got the repertoire to succeed as a lefthander in the bigs (read: excellent changeup and a workable curve). You're right that the development time may be short for him to establish consistency with his control -- but he's got the arsenal. Like his stuff a lot better right now than Travieso or Garrett -- right now those guys don't have the secondary stuff to project well, IMO. And he's an outstanding athlete. You have to like the fact he rebounded from a horrid first half and ended up leading the Midwest League in Ks.

[RedlegJake]

I think in Guillon's case he may end up spending a couple years in the bullpen finishing his refinement. Eventually I hope he progresses enough to end up in the rotation. Best case, of course, would be simply standing everything on its head and excelling from here out.

[WrongVerb]

I think in Guillon's case he may end up spending a couple years in the bullpen finishing his refinement. Eventually I hope he progresses enough to end up in the rotation. Best case, of course, would be simply standing everything on its head and excelling from here out.

Interesting info on Gonzalez. Thanks.

And Guillen is my pick until he's off the board.

[mace]

Gonzalez is a strikingingly thin lefty (think Guidry like) with a startling grounder/pop up to flyball rate. 71 grounders/pop ups to 39 flies and just 6 line drives. 3 walks in 48 innings with 47 strikeouts. Just 1 home run and 4 doubles allowed. 30 total hits. WHIP 0.769. That is 42 total bases in 48 innings counting walks, HBP and extra base hits. Less than 1 TB per inning!! TBIP less than 1 is really remarkable. A bit old for a DSL prospect at 21 in 2014. I don't know this kid's story, why he isn't already in the states (Visa problems?) but he flat out dominated the DSL. Of course, taking too much from 48 innings in the DSL is not a great idea but I'd love to see this guy in Billings or Dayton this year.

What I additionally like about Gonzalez is that last year wasn't the first in which he dominated. I recall being enthused about him as a 17-year-old (Gonzalez, that is, not me) in 2010, when he posted a WHIP under 1.00 in the Venezuelan League. He stayed in Venezuela the next year and wasn't quite as good, then for some reason missed all of 2012. Between the decline and the disappearance, I have to assume there was an injury involved. Then he bounced back spectacularly in 2013. So, yes, I sure hope we see him stateside this year.

[RedlegJake]

What I additionally like about Gonzalez is that last year wasn't the first in which he dominated. I recall being enthused about him as a 17-year-old (Gonzalez, that is, not me) in 2010, when he posted a WHIP under 1.00 in the Venezuelan League. He stayed in Venezuela the next year and wasn't quite as good, then for some reason missed all of 2012. Between the decline and the disappearance, I have to assume there was an injury involved. Then he bounced back spectacularly in 2013. So, yes, I sure hope we see him stateside this year.

Ah, so maybe there was an injury and the Reds wanted to see if he was recovered and left him in the DSL. Could explain why he wasn't stateside yet.