Votto - "I'm not the same guy I was 5 years ago"

[jordan_tm]

Thought this was an "interesting" read.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article/cin/anthony-castrovince-joey-votto-batting-second-paying-off-for-reds?ymd=20140423&content_id=73084424&vkey=news_cin

[Don Votto]

This is what I have been saying all along.

The trend is for him to continue going downward in terms of power numbers....

He has evolved/devolved... from a traditional force (incredibly awesome--one of the best players in MLB) to a Choo-like ballplayer (with even LESS xbh/pa stats)... and I think he will continue this trend, to be honest.

Votto's XBH% has gone down from 10-12% to about 7.5% (or less than league average)
Choo's XBH% (outside of 2011 at 6.2%) has pretty much stayed at the 8.8% range.

Those that thought paying Choo 20 Million dollars for what he brought to the table is not worth it-- If the trend holds (and the article sounds like Votto himself is accepting the trend as holding) Then--essentially we do have Shin Soo Choo locked up at 20 Mil until 2020.

A SCARY THOUGHT--IS COMPARING CHOO TO VOTTO TO MATTINGLY.


Years/Full Season
Choo XBH%
Votto XBH%
Mattingly XBH%


1
9.3
10.0
10.4


2
8.5
11.8
11.8


3
6.2
11.6
11.6


4
8.9
10.0
11.1


5
8.0
12.2
8.5


6
9.1 (2014)
7.9
9.0


7
--
7.4 (2014)
4.9


8
--
--
6.8


9
--
--
7.9


10
--
--
7.7


11
--
--
6.2


12
--
--
8.1




Votto XBH%
7032

Choo XBH%
7033

OK... not sure how to add pics... but... check it out if you want!

[jordan_tm]

The biggest problem I have with what Votto is saying is that he's acting like he is 40 years old now and has had knee replacement surgery. The guy should be in the heart of his prime.

[NC-Red]

i love that Votto is now in the 2 hole, should have been done a year ago. He just isnt a 3 hole hitter

[RedlegJake]

There is a big difference in Mattingly and Votto. Namely, Mattingly had very severe back problems starting in 1990 and never was the same again. Votto had a knee surgery and is just now fully recovered.

Votto has played just about a 7th of the season and is tracking for 21 doubles and 28 homers - with a .430+ OBP and .490+ SP. The Reds biggest offensive problem, which Joey is constantly blamed for, is that the team doesn't have a big slugger. Bruce is too inconsistent, the rest just middling. He is a great pure, disciplined hitter but Joey is not a slugger. His best fit, with this offensive team, is hitting second. Offset Billy's lower OBP yet take advantage of his speed when he does get on by making a run possible (or getting Billy to third) from the first two guys. It sets up whoever bats 3rd, 4th and 5th beautifully.

Now if the question is "does the high OBP and good BA year after year with solid, but not great slugging numbers, make him worth $20 million?" then there is an argument with two sides. I think he's worth every penny.

[Kai Slater]

Don't sell yourself short Joey!

I think he's just being honest about the situation given his recovery from injuries and the impact that can have on hitting mechanics. But, personally, I believe he can return to the occasional 30+ homer type of season. He hits the ball so solidly so it stands to reason that he'll get his good share of homers. If he doesn't and simply settles into a contact/gap/medium power type of hitter, then so be it. Just don't try to force the issue with aiming to be something you're not.

[Larry Schuler]

Forward yesterday
Makes me wanna stay
What they said was real
Makes me wanna steal
Livin' under house
Guess I'm livin', I'm a mouse
All's I gots is time
Got no meaning, just a rhyme

Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal
Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause I like to steal
Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal, I like to steal

I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
Well, I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
Well, I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
Well, I'm half the man I used to be, half the man I used to be

Feelin' uninspired
Think I'll start a fire
Everybody run
Bobby's got a gun
Think you're kinda neat
Then she tells me I'm a creep
Friends don't mean a thing
Guess I'll leave it up to me

Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal
Take time with a wounded hand
Guess I like to steal
Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal, I like to steal

I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be, half the man I used to be

Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal
Take time with a wounded hand
Guess I like to steal
Take time with a wounded hand
'Cause it likes to heal, I like to steal

I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be
This I feel as the dawn
It fades to gray
I'm half the man I used to be, half the man I used to be,
Half the man I used to be

[Don Votto]

Jake-- I will agree with you about Mattingly's injury. His back problems SEVERELY crippled his baseball abilities. To watch Mattingly go from the numbers he had in the mid-1980's to the slap hitter he was in the 1990's was one of the saddest/strangest episodes to watch as a fan. (***Disclaimer I had a Mattingly poster over my bed as a kid!***)

When I read Votto's quote

People didn't expect me to have less power than when I was in my middle-20s,after a couple of knee surgeries and some aging? Pay attention to the trends, man. It drives me crazy. How could you not expect players to make changes as their career goes along? I'm not the same guy I was five years ago, and I'm not the same guy now that I'll be in five years

A couple of things caught me--causing some concern.
1. Votto is 30 years old and he is signed for at the minimum NINE more years. And the way I read it, he is saying, I am not the stud I was in 2010, and I won't ever be that player again.... and I will continue to decline... but if I can get on base and help the guys out... then that is what my role will be. He pretty much admits it in this quote:


"[The decline in power] doesn't mean I can't still be at my peak and do other things that provide value for the team," Votto said. "I think people just wanted me to be a traditional 35-homer, 100-RBI guy.



My cause for concern of Votto--is the great possibility of getting at the very best--a Shin Soo Choo player for the next few years.

Why is this irritating/frustrating? Because I believe Jocketty and Castallini outlined the Reds organization model assuming Votto would be a Cabrera/Ortiz/Pujols force and NOT Shin Soo Choo on base machine. You can build an organization and a franchise around Pujols/Ortiz/Cabrera... not around Shin Soo Choo.

Then... my fear that Votto = Mattingly is from these quotes.


Good hitters stay around, weak hitters don't. Most players are declining by age 30; all players are declining by age 33. There are difference in rates of decline, but those differences are far less significant for the assessment of future value than are the differing levels of ability, wrote Bill James (James, 1982, p. 205) (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933).

And from the same article :

Hitters peak in batting and slugging average at 28 while continuing to improve in their home-run hitting and walking abilities until 30 and 32, respectively.

2. Votto's knee injuries, in 2012, are relatively minor injuries in the 21st century sports world. Especially in comparison to other elite athletes such as Adrian Peterson, Robert Griffin III, and so on. Votto had a torn meniscus and floating cartilage.

Votto's two knee surgeries were part of the same injury in 2012. (http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120811&content_id=36511400&notebook_id=36510028&vkey=notebook_cin&c_id=cin)


Votto originally hurt the knee on June 29 while sliding into third base in San Francisco, tearing the medial meniscus in his left knee. He left the lineup on July 16 and had the original arthroscopic surgery a day later


"He was having some pain and we sent him back to get a new MRI and get re-examined," Reds head athletic trainer Paul Lessard said prior to Saturday's game at Wrigley Field. "They found basically a little chunk of cartilage floating in his knee, so [Dr. Kremchek] went in and removed it. The whole procedure only took about six minutes, so he's going to stay back in Cincinnati with the physical therapists until we get back home."

I, for the life of me, don't understand what is taking/took Votto so long to recover from arthroscopic knee surgery. The way the article reads, you would think that Votto had two reconstructive surgery on his knees--when in reality--he had two minimally evasive surgeries to clean out his knee.

For the common person, running and squats and such are put on hold for arthroscopic surgery, but a professional athlete is privy to 24 hour trainers, nutritionists, gadgets, and most importantly drugs to help speed up the healing process.

MY CONCERN
If Votto feels this way NOW, and his XBH% has fallen to what it is--WHAT happens when other pieces start breaking down in the next few years?

I am not talking catastrophic injuries--(and I know he is tough--hell anyone that can play in 150+ games in a season--let alone all of them--I admire)--but just the basic injuries from year to year.

[RBA]

If he is not the same guy, can the Reds get out of Votto's contract because the real Votto has not shown up yet?

[Don Votto]

If he is not the same guy, can the Reds get out of Votto's contract because the real Votto has not shown up yet?

I thought the same thing,RBA--but was afraid I would be viewed as too cynical! :)

[Rando]

You can't judge any of Joey's power numbers post injury. It's too soon, he could return to 2010 form.

[SlimJim11]

Even if he never returns to his MVP form, he was still 8th in MLB in OPS last year. That is pretty freaking good. I really don't see what the problem with Votto is.

[jordan_tm]

No one can deny that Votto is a phenomenal player. But I think deep down, management is concerned about what they've invested in. Every team needs that go-to, middle of the order homerun hitter. Bruce on paper has the potential to be that, but his streakiness makes him more of a 5-hole hitter in my opinion. I don't exactly see anyone in the minors fitting that prototype either.

Financially speaking, it's tough to tell what kind of implications this will have on the team in 5 years. There's been all this talk about a huge TV deal really supplying a great deal of payroll flexibility to management. I think that's why we've seen Jocketty and Castellini backload so many of these recent contracts.

I remember when Griffey re-negotiated his contract to help the team sign free agents. A very classy and helpful move, but I believe we signed the legendary Eric Milton with that extra money. Maybe when Votto is hitting .305, 15HR, 65RBI's in a few years he would do the same?

[SlimJim11]

Every team needs that go-to, middle of the order homerun hitter.

Really? Votto would have tied for the team lead in homers for the Cardinals last year, they seemed to have a pretty good offense.

[Don Votto]

Really? Votto would have tied for the team lead in homers for the Cardinals last year, they seemed to have a pretty good offense.

True--Votto would have been tied with them in hitting homeruns, but those are not the only types of extra base hits. Albeit a down year in the National League for Home Runs for a variety of circumstances (mid-season trades, PED suspensions, injuries, and/or just not the same talent level as the AL) But-- while home runs were down in the NL. Doubles throughout the major leagues (amongst leaders)--pretty much stayed the same.

And while Votto was down the list in home runs in MLB, but still on the front page of the leader board. Votto's double count was 30-which pushed him to 58th in the major leagues. 58th. Yes. 58th. Is that what you want from a power hitter?????

In comparison to XBH%... amongst the Cardinals of 2013 alone...
Joey Votto 7.9% Xtra Base Hits/ PA (30 2B/ 3 3B/ 24 HR) --162 games

Yadier Molina--10.9% (44 2B/0 3B/ 12HR) -- 136 games
Matt Carpenter--10.2% (55 2B/ 7 3B / 11 HR)-- 157 games
Carlos Beltran--9.5% (30 2B / 3 3B / 24 HR) -- in 145 games
Matt Holiday--9.0% (31 2B/ 1 3B / 22 HR) -- in 141 games
Daniel Descalso --8.7% (25 2B/ 1 3B / 5 HR) -- 123 games

Again--his power is down--or was in 2013-- I can take Votto hitting 20-25 home runs a year(because I guess he is not a 35 home run hitter)--but then he better get me 40-50 doubles per year.

Or else... once again... Votto = Shin Soo Choo (A nice table setter--but not a thumper in the middle of the line-up)

Oh... Shin Soo Choo 9.1% (34 2B/ 2 3B/ 21 HR) --154 games

[SlimJim11]

Shin Soo Choo has never had an OPS over .900 for a full season. Saying he's Choo is a bit off.

[bengalsown]

I don't understand why his two knee surgeries are his excuse for not being the same player. You would think he tore his ACL from the way he talks about the impact of his surgery. It was a torn meniscus, people get them all the time.

[Rando]

I don't understand why his two knee surgeries are his excuse for not being the same player. You would think he tore his ACL from the way he talks about the impact of his surgery. It was a torn meniscus, people get them all the time.
Do some research, meniscus usually cannot be repaired. ACL/MCL/PCL/etc can be replaced with other ligaments. Either way, your knee is never the same

[Don Votto]

Shin Soo Choo has never had an OPS over .900 for a full season. Saying he's Choo is a bit off.

You are right. The difference between Votto's 2013 OPS and Choo's OPS was because Votto's singles counted toward slugging where as Choo's HBP only counted to his OBP and not his slugging.

So, I suppose you are right in that regards. Even though Choo had more extra base hits in less games, based on OPS, Votto (with his extra singles) obviously out slugged Choo.

[Don Votto]

Do some research, meniscus usually cannot be repaired. ACL/MCL/PCL/etc can be replaced with other ligaments. Either way, your knee is never the same

Come on. Do not even compare torn cartridge to an ACL. The ligaments control the torque on that knee. The meniscus protects against the jarring of the knee.

[SlimJim11]

You are right. The difference between Votto's 2013 OPS and Choo's OPS was because Votto's singles counted toward slugging where as Choo's HBP only counted to his OBP and not his slugging.

So, I suppose you are right in that regards. Even though Choo had more extra base hits in less games, based on OPS, Votto (with his extra singles) obviously out slugged Choo.



Man you are obviously biased if you really think Choo = Votto. But that is an opinion you are allowed to have.

[Don Votto]

What do the numbers say?

[SlimJim11]

That even in Votto's worst season he had a better AVG, OBP, SLG%, OPS than Choo has ever had for a full season.

Votto last year

.305/.435/.491/.926

Choo's best in any full season (not counting 2008 as he only played 94 games)

.300/.423/.489/.885 (note those won't add up as they are individual numbers from different seasons)

[Don Votto]

That even in Votto's worst season he had a better AVG, OBP, SLG%, OPS than Choo has ever had for a full season.

Votto last year

.305/.435/.491/.926

Choo's best in any full season (not counting 2008 as he only played 94 games)

.300/.423/.489/.885 (note those won't add up as they are individual numbers from different seasons)



Since Sept 2012
Votto
Choo


PA
930
934


AB
734
752


HITS
224
218


2B
41
46


3B
3
3


HR
28
24


BB
181
143


K
175
178


XBH%
7.7%
7.8%


HBP
8
31





Seems Awfully similar to me.

[jordan_tm]

Really? Votto would have tied for the team lead in homers for the Cardinals last year, they seemed to have a pretty good offense.
The Cardinals also hit .330 as a team with RISP and Allen Craig hit .454 with RISP. Votto hit .291 with RISP, and even worse .287 with men on base.

In 2010, he hit .369 with RISP and .379 with men on base.

I guess I was too generic in saying that every team needs a middle of the order homerun hitter. When you hit them counts as well. And if you don't hit as many, you should be able to make up for it by driving runs in when men are on base.

[SlimJim11]

Since Sept 2012
Votto
Choo


PA
930
934


AB
734
752


HITS
224
218


2B
41
46


3B
3
3


HR
28
24


BB
181
143


K
175
178


XBH%
7.7%
7.8%


HBP
8
31





Seems Awfully similar to me.

And yet Votto at his very worst is still better than Choo at his best. Cool!

[Don Votto]

And yet Votto at his very worst is still better than Choo at his best. Cool!
I am not sure where you are drawing that conclusion, Slim. because of OPS OBA slash line? That's as far as you can look. OK.

The point of the initial conversation. Votto said he is not a 35HR 100 RBI hitter anymore, and not to expect that from him now or in the future. So, ladies and gentleman Votto 2.0 = Shin Soo Choo.

Furthermore--
Choo has ten more runs scored than Votto did over this time period...but, Votto did hit behind Choo... you would expect Votto to get more RBI's when a man like Choo is on base 40% of the time--but I guess Votto, despite his 175 strikeouts, has been pitched around in every RBI scenario.

Votto does have 13 more RBI's than Choo SCORE ONE FOR VOTTO
But then again, Choo had the 8 and 9 hitters setting the table for him....

Although Votto did manage to hit into 12 more double plays than Choo (assuming because Choo was on so much--where as the 8 and 9 hitters did not set Choo up for too many double plays?)

Though Votto walked 38 more times than Choo -- Choo was hit by a pitch 23 more times than Votto.

So--in a nutshell-- :) The main difference between Choo and Votto since September, 2012... Votto played in 6 more games and walked/hbp 15 more times than Choo, and had six more hits in that time period.

Again--to me they are the same player... and if this is what Votto has become... than it is what it is. But, as I said before, and I will say it again--I don't think the Reds paid 263 million dollars for a table setter.

[RedlegJake]

The elephant in the room is not which is better. Both are plenty good. Choo gets almost the same money, Votto a couple million more per season. But - Votto gets paid til age 39. Choo is off the Texas payroll at age 37 and being a year older that is actually three years before Joey. The only way in a lot of cases, to sign a star hitter, is to lock them up for a lot of years. In a small market there are only so many contracts to offer like that. The Reds chose Joey to be one of them - the big one. I just wonder if it makes sense for a small market to EVER offer a contract like that? Don't get me wrong - I love Votto and think he's worth every dime right now. Those 36-37-38-39 years could be a real albatross, though.