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Edd Roush
06-05-2014, 10:05 PM
Post information related to the Alex Blandino pick in this thread.

Gallen5862
06-05-2014, 10:10 PM
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/6/3/5776662/keith-law-mock-draft-alex-blandino-red-sox

With just a couple days left before the 2014 MLB draft, Keith Law has taken yet another shot at predicting the first round. This time around, he's got the Red Sox taking Stanford third baseman Alex Blandino with the 26th overall pick.

As with so many other draft experts, Law has apparently heard that the Red Sox are looking for a college bat with their first pick. Recently we've seen Derek Fisher and A.J. Reed as possible candidates to fill that role for Boston, but Blandino is a new name.

Unlike Fisher and Reed, who both boast big bats with questionable gloves, Blandino is something of a tweener. He has decent power, but nothing special. He has a good swing and a solid eye at the plate, which has finally translated to results with Stanford in the form of a .312/.399/.540 batting line in 56 games this year. But this summary from Baseball America raises a few flags:

Blandino projects more as a fringe-average or average power hitter rather than a true bopper, so a move to second base fits better than third. He's an average defender with good hands and an average arm, and if his bat doesn't develop he may be athletic enough to be a utility infielder, playing all three spots.

Redsfansince72
06-05-2014, 10:12 PM
doesnt sound promising... i was hoping AJ Reed would have been picked..

Edd Roush
06-05-2014, 10:15 PM
Buckley and co. have to believe in the bat. He does seem to have some pretty good power and most scouts are saying he has a quick bat. The defensive profiles seem to show that he can play a pretty good defensive second base, too. I hope the Reds sign him quick and start him in Dayton.

Gallen5862
06-05-2014, 10:17 PM
http://m.mlb.com/video/v32290735/draft-report-alex-blandino-college-third-baseman

JMO
06-05-2014, 10:17 PM
This pick sounds like a Gelalich type, Brodie Greene, Lohman, etc.

thorn
06-05-2014, 10:19 PM
Leads Stanford in HR's, RBI's and walks, with 29, 3rd in BA (.312) looks like his bat may be underrated a little bit.

Edd Roush
06-05-2014, 10:33 PM
C Trent is reporting that Howard will be a starting pitcher and Blandino will start out at SS.

Blandino will hold significantly more value if he can stick at SS.

_Sir_Charles_
06-05-2014, 10:35 PM
"solid eye at the plate" is the part that I'm loving. The Reds really need middle infielders who can progress quickly. And the lack of guys with a solid hit tool is also something missing. We don't have many guys who can hit for a solid average. That's one of the big things I'm looking for this year.

Gallen5862
06-05-2014, 10:36 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-mlb-draft-first-round-analysis/

29. REDS:Pick: Alex Blandino, ss, Stanford
Pick value:$1,788,000
Area Scout: Rich Bordi

Pick analysis: Blandino had as much late helium as any college position player, a demographic the Reds have gone to often in recent years after drafting Phillip Ervin (2013), Yasmani Grandal (2010) and Yonder Alonso (2008).
Scouting report: Blandino burst on the scene as a freshman, hitting eight home runs despite starting just 29 games. He has yet to match that total in the two ensuing seasons but has hit enough to be one of the top college bats in the class. The 6-foot, 190-pounder has a strong track record hitting with wood, batting .310 with five home runs in 268 at-bats in the Cape Cod League the last two summers, often playing shortstop for Yarmouth-Dennis. He’s struggled a bit more with Stanford, especially as a junior where he’s been pitched around in a below-average lineup. He’s a career .282 hitter heading into the home stretch of his college career, despite having looseness in his swing, good bat speed and quick wrists. He does a good job staying inside the ball but at times sells out trying to generate home run power. Blandino projects more as a fringe-average or average power hitter rather than a true bopper, so a move to second base fits better than third. He’s an average defender with good hands and an average arm, and if his bat doesn’t develop he may be athletic enough to be a utility infielder, playing all three spots. He’s a below-average runner. Blandino’s laid-back demeanor may suit the grind of pro ball better than the short college season.
Twitter: @ablandino10

Benihana
06-06-2014, 12:04 AM
I wonder if Todd Walker is a good comp for him?

Maybe Neil Walker to keep it a bit more current?

WrongVerb
06-06-2014, 06:28 AM
Sounds like a Cincinnati version of Bret Boone.

HokieRed
06-06-2014, 07:40 AM
I like that Billy Beane drafted him out of high school, 38th round in 2011. Maybe Jed Lowrie as a comp. If that's the case, or Boone or either of the Walkers, looks like a solid pick.

RedTeamGo!
06-06-2014, 07:46 AM
Beane has not really been successful with the draft though, has he? The draft from Moneyball for example would have been a complete bust if it wasn't for Swisher.

HokieRed
06-06-2014, 08:06 AM
Beane has not really been successful with the draft though, has he? The draft from Moneyball for example would have been a complete bust if it wasn't for Swisher.

I don't know Beane's overall draft record that well. I do know he's got three shortstops in the system right now that I'd love to have: Russell, Robertson, Pinder.

mdccclxix
06-06-2014, 08:54 AM
Separate from the idea that higher upside players were available when Blandino was picked, I do like the overall profile of an athletic 2b/SS/3b with good plate discipline that performed well in the Cape Cod league. Not a bad pick, just not a high value "steal" type of pick on the surface.

HokieRed
06-06-2014, 09:09 AM
Middle infielder described as "one of the top college bats in the draft." Sounds like a solid pick to me.

mdccclxix
06-06-2014, 09:15 AM
"Like Alex, Todd Frazier was a shortstop," Reds senior director of amateur scouting Chris Buckley said. "Todd got beat out to be the USA shortstop by Zack Cozart. It fits right into [our club] as a baseball player and a high-character guy."



Blandino, who is listed at 6-feet and 190 pounds, was ranked as the 52nd-best Draft prospect by MLB.com. Buckley, however, did not believe that the Reds were reaching up too high to take Blandino at 29.

"That's very subjective. It could be who that particular writer got his information from or whatever," Buckley said. "We've scouted him. We've seen him a lot. He plays at a high level. We're excited to have him."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140605&content_id=78406502&notebook_id=78406518&vkey=notebook_cin&c_id=cin

marcshoe
06-06-2014, 09:55 AM
I wonder if Todd Walker is a good comp for him?

Maybe Neil Walker to keep it a bit more current?

I've been claiming for years that they're the same person.

Of course, iirc Neil started out as a catcher.

marcshoe
06-06-2014, 09:57 AM
Middle infielder described as "one of the top college bats in the draft." Sounds like a solid pick to me.

I know that the best practice seems to be to take the best available player, but man, this organization needs middle infielders. I would have been disappointed if one of the top two picks hadn't been an MI.

Eric from NC
06-06-2014, 10:01 AM
I did find the Baseball American guy working for MLB Network's comment that Stanford's hitters all use an approach that fails at the pro level so they all have to come up with a new one. I don't know if the comment was interesting or just bizarre.

marcshoe
06-06-2014, 10:07 AM
I did find the Baseball American guy working for MLB Network's comment that Stanford's hitters all use an approach that fails at the pro level so they all have to come up with a new one. I don't know if the comment was interesting or just bizarre.

I read where someone claims that Stanford basically encourages their hitters to make contact, even if that means they don't hit the ball as hard as they otherwise would. That seems to me to be a strategy that would work with some players but not with others. Given the scouting report in an above post, it also doesn't seem that Blandino totally buys into this philosophy, so he may not need to be corrected as much as previous Stanford prospects. The Cape Cod numbers are also encouraging.m gue

I'm guessing he'll be fast-tracked, given his experience and the Reds' needs.
'

RedlegJake
06-06-2014, 10:15 AM
Eric that is a common criticism but here is an article that refutes it:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/column/2012/2613178.html

Here are some Stanford Cardinals playing in the majors:
Sam Fuld
Carlos Quentin
Jason Castro
Jed Lowrie
John Mayberry Jr
Ryan Garko
Michael Taylor

I'm not sure the "Stanford Cardinal Way" is as bad a thing as some like to make it

RedTeamGo!
06-06-2014, 10:42 AM
Whoa Whoa Whoa - Ryan Garko is currently in the majors?

Take it for what it's worth - Bleacher Report said the Blandino pick was very good by the Reds. Said there were grumblings he was going to be drafted 2-3 picks after 29 so they jumped on him.

The more I read about the first day yesterday, I like it. Howard and Blandino should both move quickly.

RedlegJake
06-06-2014, 10:55 AM
Whoa Whoa Whoa - Ryan Garko is currently in the majors?

Not currently but you get the point.

RedTeamGo!
06-06-2014, 10:59 AM
Not currently but you get the point.

That wasn't meant as snark, my mind was blown at the thought of Garko still in the majors.

PuffyPig
06-06-2014, 11:43 AM
That wasn't meant as snark, my mind was blown at the thought of Garko still in the majors.

IIRC, someone here was adamant that we trade Votto (and I think Bailey) for the Indians for Garko. A RH power bat to hit between Griffey and Dunn. Obviously before Bailey and Votto became Bailey and Votto.

Patrick Bateman
06-06-2014, 12:19 PM
IIRC, someone here was adamant that we trade Votto (and I think Bailey) for the Indians for Garko. A RH power bat to hit between Griffey and Dunn. Obviously before Bailey and Votto became Bailey and Votto.

Let's not dredge that on up again, the original poster in question has discussed that he didn't express his opinion on that one that way he meant, and also even admitted to learning something from their perceptions at that time (a rare instance on Redzone of a poster really admitting that they got one wrong, and felt like they learned something from it). I thought it was actually a really cool resoluation on both sides of the discussion. And to be fair. Garko at the time was stinging the ball at a young age, and there was probably less known about defensive stats to know the guy was a butcher unless you saw him play.

M2
06-06-2014, 12:54 PM
Eric that is a common criticism but here is an article that refutes it:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/column/2012/2613178.html

Here are some Stanford Cardinals playing in the majors:
Sam Fuld
Carlos Quentin
Jason Castro
Jed Lowrie
John Mayberry Jr
Ryan Garko
Michael Taylor

I'm not sure the "Stanford Cardinal Way" is as bad a thing as some like to make it

That's a pretty poor list of players once you get past Quentin and Lowrie. I'd say the article reinforces the criticism rather than refutes it. Texas is another powerhouse program that really struggles to produce position players.

M2
06-06-2014, 01:09 PM
You know, I'm guessing Blandino would seem more exciting if his last name was Anything-else-ino. The "bland" part of his name really burnishes itself into the human brain.

RichRed
06-06-2014, 01:38 PM
You know, I'm guessing Blandino would seem more exciting if his last name was Anything-else-ino. The "bland" part of his name really burnishes itself into the human brain.

Yeah, I was hoping they'd draft Sparklino or Dazzlino myself.

WrongVerb
06-06-2014, 01:42 PM
Yeah, I was hoping they'd draft Sparklino or Dazzlino myself.

Well, they DID take Sparks in the 2nd round.

malcontent
06-06-2014, 01:43 PM
You know, I'm guessing Blandino would seem more exciting if his last name was Anything-else-ino. The "bland" part of his name really burnishes itself into the human brain.
You mean like Dan Uggla?

I was nervous about the pick until I read the money quote from Buckley: "He fits right into [our club] as a baseball player and a high-character guy."

Slot him next to Cozart and we should have the All-Character middle infield.

Vander
06-06-2014, 01:44 PM
You know, I'm guessing Blandino would seem more exciting if his last name was Anything-else-ino. The "bland" part of his name really burnishes itself into the human brain.

Or just add an upside down "u" to the first "n" and reverse the "d"... Blambino would be awesome.

thorn
06-06-2014, 01:48 PM
For what it's worth, Stanford got a new hitting coach this past year.

nmculbreth
06-06-2014, 02:19 PM
From today's Keith Law chat:

Brett (Ohio) - Is Blandino more than a utility guy? Seems to have mediocre tools across the board. Overall thoughts on what the Reds did yesterday?
Klaw (2:06 PM) - There is nothing mediocre about his bat. The guy can hit.

Dave (Burlington, MA) - Any chance Blandino sticks at SS?
Klaw (1:13 PM) - He isn't a shortstop now, so, no.

corkedbat
06-06-2014, 02:50 PM
Yeah, I was hoping they'd draft Sparklino or Dazzlino myself.

Or Fabulino (but its a bit early for a reliever).

Tom Servo
06-06-2014, 03:14 PM
That's a pretty poor list of players once you get past Quentin and Lowrie. I'd say the article reinforces the criticism rather than refutes it. Texas is another powerhouse program that really struggles to produce position players.
I'd Castro and Mayberry are legit MLB hitters as well.

Rojo
06-06-2014, 04:50 PM
The "bland" part of his name really burnishes itself into the human brain.

It's like a really dull magician. "Watch me pull an IRS Schedule C form out of my hat".

Rojo
06-06-2014, 04:51 PM
So I'm guessing the Blandino is the controversy pick for this round.

I have visions of Tim Tuefel but what do I know.

RedlegJake
06-06-2014, 06:00 PM
IIRC, someone here was adamant that we trade Votto (and I think Bailey) for the Indians for Garko. A RH power bat to hit between Griffey and Dunn. Obviously before Bailey and Votto became Bailey and Votto.

Yep. One of my dumber suggested trades but not the only one. I also wanted LA's Scott Van Slyke who became a pumpkin and Adam Eaton - better but not as good as I thought.

thatcoolguy_22
06-06-2014, 06:33 PM
So I'm guessing the Blandino is the controversy pick for this round.

I have visions of Tim Tuefel but what do I know.

I would guess Nick Howard would be the controversial pick of the 1st round. It seems to be split 75/25 on whether he will be effective as a starter. Picking a reliever that doesn't have Chapman's profile would be highly controversial IMO. I trust in Buckley and am not concerned in the slightest. He has been killing the first few rounds since signing on.

Rojo
06-06-2014, 07:13 PM
I trust in Buckley and am not concerned in the slightest. He has been killing the first few rounds since signing on.

But I think most people are thinking this and giving him the benefit of the doubt on Howard.

Chuckie
06-08-2014, 01:03 PM
This pick screams "Brandon Phillips' eventual replacement." Well, maybe doesn't scream it, but does suggest it.

And that's fine. BP only has three years left on his contract after this one. It's time the organization starts thinking about who his replacement will be. No way Blandino stays at SS. He doesn't even play SS for his college team. He might play SS for Dayton, but he won't by the time he gets to MLB. He'll be a second baseman from everything I'm reading. And I like that. I would have liked to have seen a legit SS, but I don't mind this pick at all.

The only thing that worries me is -- as others have mentioned -- Buckley has a track record of whiffing on position players in the supplemental first round/second round range. Jeff Gelalich, Ryan LaMarre, Devin Lohman, Gabriel Rosa, etc.

JaxRed
06-08-2014, 03:31 PM
ESPN2 just switched to Stanford game.

lollipopcurve
06-08-2014, 05:38 PM
Been watching Stanford the last couple days in the super regionals, and I like what I see of Blandino. Good actions at 3B -- I don't think 2B will be a problem, and I think he'll survive at SS in the lower minors. Nice swing -- looks like he's got strong hands/wrists. Optimistic about this player. Turns out his father is Nicaraguan.

Also like what I've seen of Sparks. Athletic for a big guy, and he can handle 3B.

dabvu2498
06-08-2014, 09:43 PM
Got to watch Blandino in person all weekend. He looks, defensively, like a 3B to me. Stanford had him playing pretty tight all weekend (Vandy loves to bunt) and it was hard to get a true read on his range. (Also, Stanford had a couple guys who were sliiiiiiiiiick playing MI.) Made a couple very nice, quick, lateral plays. Two specifically today that were pretty head-turning. But he also made a couple ill-advised, rushed throws.

At the plate, has plenty of bat speed to handle mid-90s fastballs, as did their whole team... Wow. Hard to get a read off of much seeing just 3 games and watching his group hit BP once.

I liked him. I don't love him.

Kc61
06-10-2014, 10:10 AM
Blandino seems like this year's attempt at a Winker/SMB/sound approach type hitter. Reds are trying to get this type hitter in the system. Solid line drive hitter with good discipline.

With this type of guy the Reds may not be focusing too much on position or defense, just trying to "change the culture" a bit from the righty power bats that have been so prevalent in their system.

The reports on his bat are very good, if he hits they'll find a spot for him.

Old school 1983
06-10-2014, 11:45 AM
Blandino seems like this year's attempt at a Winker/SMB/sound approach type hitter. Reds are trying to get this type hitter in the system. Solid line drive hitter with good discipline.

With this type of guy the Reds may not be focusing too much on position or defense, just trying to "change the culture" a bit from the righty power bats that have been so prevalent in their system.

The reports on his bat are very good, if he hits they'll find a spot for him.

Exactly. The Reds have lacked guys with a solid plate approach outside of Votto. IMO guys with a good approach that hit hard line drives will succeed in Cincinnati because the stadium doesn't require huge power to hit home runs, and walks and gap line drives will still play on the road. It's a nice shift from the poor approach but slightly plus pop we've seen for awhile.

fearofpopvol1
06-10-2014, 02:06 PM
The good news is that I don't think this is Devin Lohman II. Sounds like his floor is at least decent. His ceiling though doesn't seem too high. I hope he does awesome though.

redsmetz
06-10-2014, 02:16 PM
This pick screams "Brandon Phillips' eventual replacement." Well, maybe doesn't scream it, but does suggest it.

And that's fine. BP only has three years left on his contract after this one. It's time the organization starts thinking about who his replacement will be. No way Blandino stays at SS. He doesn't even play SS for his college team. He might play SS for Dayton, but he won't by the time he gets to MLB. He'll be a second baseman from everything I'm reading. And I like that. I would have liked to have seen a legit SS, but I don't mind this pick at all.

The only thing that worries me is -- as others have mentioned -- Buckley has a track record of whiffing on position players in the supplemental first round/second round range. Jeff Gelalich, Ryan LaMarre, Devin Lohman, Gabriel Rosa, etc.

I came across this scouting report from last fall that suggests he'll end up at 2nd base.

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2013/11/draft-14-alex-blandino-nick-gordon-alex.html

"Blandino gets the unfortunate label of a ‘tweener’ — he doesn’t have the athleticism to play shortstop and the bat doesn’t likely play at third — but I certainly think he has the athleticism and offensive ability to be an average to above-average regular at second base. "

RedEye
06-10-2014, 10:47 PM
For some reason, his last name reminds me of this guy:

7308

malcontent
06-11-2014, 09:18 AM
His ceiling though doesn't seem too high.
Blandino in 2013: .268 .340 .453 .792

Unless last year was an aberration, I'd have to agree.

Give me Sheffield, Wall or Harrison over Late Helium.

Edd Roush
06-11-2014, 12:25 PM
Blandino in 2013: .268 .340 .453 .792

Unless last year was an aberration, I'd have to agree.

Give me Sheffield, Wall or Harrison over Late Helium.

I definitely cannot know whether this pick is the correct one or not at this stage, but one thing that has to be kept in mind with college stats is the small sample size each each season represents. Blandino only got 207 PAs in 2013 and had a .285 BABIP in 2013. For a guy who sprays line drives like he does and has that kind of power, .285 is abnormally low. Blandino's 2013 PAs are equivalent to the size of about 1/3 of a normal major league starter's PAs.

Some statistics for the optimists out there is how much Blandino has improved with his approach throughout his time at Stanford. Freshman year he struck out 17.3% of the time, sophomore year he struck out 15.9% of the time and his final year at Stanford he has only struck out 12.1% of the time. He has also increased his walk rate throughout his three years at Stanford. Freshman year he only walked 6.7% of the time, sophomore year he walked 8.2% of the time and his final year at Stanford he walked 11.0% of the time. If Blandino can keep progressing with his approach, he will be a good guy to have at the top of the line-up.

The Reds could have taken Blandino over Sheffield, Wall or Harrison because Blandino has three more years of development at a top program on those HS guys and while his 2013 wasn't elite, his 2014 was very impressive. In between his 2013 and 2014 at Stanford, he also had a very impressive year in the Cape Cod League.

Blandino may not have the pure upside of Sheffield, Wall or Harrison, but he can still be a very good player in his own right and can take over for one of the aging cogs of the Reds at 2B in a more timley manner than Wall or the other HS potential 2B.

Rojo
06-11-2014, 04:54 PM
Blandino may not have the pure upside of Sheffield, Wall or Harrison, but he can still be a very good player in his own right and can take over for one of the aging cogs of the Reds at 2B in a more timley manner than Wall or the other HS potential 2B.

Sorry, but if this is the rationale behind the pick, then I'm dead-set against it. Sign a Mark Ellis if need be. I want higher upside at this spot in the draft. My only hope is that Buckley sees something.

Edd Roush
06-11-2014, 05:24 PM
Sorry, but if this is the rationale behind the pick, then I'm dead-set against it. Sign a Mark Ellis if need be. I want higher upside at this spot in the draft. My only hope is that Buckley sees something.

Mark Ellis was actually a very good player in his prime. In 2005 he had a fWAR of 4.3 and in 2007 he had a fWAR of 4.0. He provided the A's with a lot of surplus value when he was under contract in Oakland. He is actually very similar to what the Reds could hope for from Blandino.

With that being said, Alex Blandino in his prime profiles to have much more power than the aged Mark Ellis that was signed by the Cardinals to a 1 year, 5.2 million dollar deal. Plus, it's not like there are a lot of Ellis' out there in free agency and it's not like 5.2 million is chump change, either.

Pure upside is not everything. If you believed that, you would be taking Wily Mo Pena as a prospect over Jay Bruce as a prospect. You have to balance the ceiling with the likelihood of reaching the ceiling and how long it will take to get to the ceiling when evaluating a prospect.

Just because the guy profiles to have a good chance to be a very good player does not make him worse than a guy who has a much smaller chance of being a superstar, but will much more likely be a guy who can never amounts to much in the bigs.

Benihana
06-11-2014, 05:25 PM
Sorry, but if this is the rationale behind the pick, then I'm dead-set against it. Sign a Mark Ellis if need be. I want higher upside at this spot in the draft. My only hope is that Buckley sees something.

Completely agree, and one of the reasons I do not like the pick at all.

This is the biggest reason why I hate drafting for "depth" and "high floor" over high upside. It is easy and cheap to acquire below average major leaguers (or minor leaguers for that matter). It is neither cheap nor easy to acquire impact players. That is why small market teams especially need to focus on drafting potential impact players. That is my beef with Buckley's drafting philosophy toward hitters in a nutshell.

Edd Roush
06-11-2014, 05:32 PM
Completely agree, and one of the reasons I do not like the pick at all.

This is the biggest reason why I hate drafting for "depth" and "high floor" over high upside. It is easy and cheap to acquire below average major leaguers (or minor leaguers for that matter). It is neither cheap nor easy to acquire impact players. That is why small market teams especially need to focus on drafting potential impact players. That is my beef with Buckley's drafting philosophy toward hitters in a nutshell.

Who says the Reds are drafting for depth with Blandino? Also, who is saying Blandino is destined to be a below average major leaguer?

The Reds may hope Blandino has a similar career arc to a Todd Frazier. No one thinks thought Frazier was dripping with upside as a prospect and was a college guy like Blandino. Frazier steadily produced at the minor league level until he reached Louisville and then the Reds gave him the call in 2012 and he produced 2.6 fWAR that year, then he had 3.3 fWAR in 2013 and already has 2.5 fWAR in 2014.

Frazier was probably looked at as a "high floor" guy, but even then, he certainly is not a below average major leaguer.

I am not saying that Blandino will hit (or defend) like Todd Frazier. I am just using Todd an example of the kind of career progression the Reds could hope to see from Blandino.

Pure upside is not everything. There is something to be said about the likelihood of being an average major league player (which smaller market teams cannot afford to buy at market rates in free agency) and proximity to helping the big league team out.

dougdirt
06-11-2014, 05:43 PM
Blandino was ranked the 30th best draft prospect by Baseball America. Chris Buckley and the Reds weren't the only people who seemed to think he was good. End of the day, if he can stick at second base defensively, thats an above-average bat.

Rojo
06-11-2014, 05:55 PM
Mark Ellis was actually a very good player in his prime. In 2005 he had a fWAR of 4.3 and in 2007 he had a fWAR of 4.0. He provided the A's with a lot of surplus value when he was under contract in Oakland. He is actually very similar to what the Reds could hope for from Blandino.

With that being said, Alex Blandino in his prime profiles to have much more power than the aged Mark Ellis that was signed by the Cardinals to a 1 year, 5.2 million dollar deal. Plus, it's not like there are a lot of Ellis' out there in free agency and it's not like 5.2 million is chump change, either.

Mark Ellis was a 9th round pick. And it's not like signing and developing Blandino is free.

Rojo
06-11-2014, 06:00 PM
The Reds may hope Blandino has a similar career arc to a Todd Frazier.

If Buckley sees some Frazier in him, then I'm fine with the pick. But if he's picking him because he's got a good chance of being a just-enough major leaguer, I'm not crazy about that.

Benihana
06-11-2014, 06:10 PM
Blandino was ranked the 30th best draft prospect by Baseball America. Chris Buckley and the Reds weren't the only people who seemed to think he was good. End of the day, if he can stick at second base defensively, thats an above-average bat.

We heard the same argument with Ryan LaMarre and Jeff Gelalich, who were similarly rated by BA and other experts, and guys Buckley took in the first two rounds. I think Buckley specifically and the scouting community more generally have a blindspot when it comes to "productive" college hitters without tools.

Look, I'm not saying Alex Blandino will never be a good player - I have no idea. He may be and I could be totally wrong - in fact, I'm willing to defer judgment. I've been wrong before.

I just sincerely hope he is a much bigger impact player than a Mark Ellis or a Chris Valaika or Justin Turner for that matter- otherwise IMO it's a guy that should've been drafted after the 2nd round (let alone the sandwich). Personally, I would've gone with higher upside middle infielders - guys like Forrest Wall, Ti'Quan Forbes, even Josh Morgan. Sure they may be farther away, but they also project to be better players once they get to the big leagues. No risk no reward.

By the way, if he ends up as a 3B, which is not unreasonable considering that's where he is playing in college, then there are a whole host of others that should've gone ahead of him. Maybe even including Jacob Gatewood.

757690
06-11-2014, 06:11 PM
If Buckley sees some Frazier in him, then I'm fine with the pick. But if he's picking him because he's got a good chance of being a just-enough major leaguer, I'm not crazy about that.

That's the drafting philosophy that built the A's and Cardinals. Smart athletes, skilled at playing baseball. Low ceiling, but very high floor. If this was a top 10 in the draft pick, I'd agree with you, but after the first dozen or so picks, their aren't too many high ceiling guys left that have a decent floor to their game.

And drafting Blandino is far more cost effective than signing Mark Ellis types year to year. That is exactly why the A's and Cards have done so well. They can spend their money on difference makers, not fillers.

Rojo
06-11-2014, 06:39 PM
Smart athletes, skilled at playing baseball.

Do we know this about Blandino?

If he turns into a Brandon Moss (8th round) or a Matt Carpenter (13th round) I'll be tickled pink. But I think projecting these types isn't much easier than projecting raw atheletes.

757690
06-11-2014, 07:05 PM
Do we know this about Blandino?

If he turns into a Brandon Moss (8th round) or a Matt Carpenter (13th round) I'll be tickled pink. But I think projecting these types isn't much easier than projecting raw atheletes.

We know very little about draft picks. Look at the list of first rounders from the past. Less than half become difference makers. Blandino is playing the odds, betting on a 3-2 horse instead of a 5-1. Not as big of a pay out, but if you keep making those bets, you'll win more often.

Rojo
06-11-2014, 07:21 PM
We know very little about draft picks. Look at the list of first rounders from the past. Less than half become difference makers. Blandino is playing the odds, betting on a 3-2 horse instead of a 5-1. Not as big of a pay out, but if you keep making those bets, you'll win more often.

Either way, you lose. And who goes to the track to play 3-2 horses?

corkedbat
06-11-2014, 07:49 PM
My problem with the top of the Reds draft was never a matter of thinking the guys selected were bums, but more that there were better options available and the guys picked at 19 & 29 most likely would have been there at 29 & 58 respectively.

Benihana
06-11-2014, 08:55 PM
That's the drafting philosophy that built the A's and Cardinals. Smart athletes, skilled at playing baseball. Low ceiling, but very high floor. If this was a top 10 in the draft pick, I'd agree with you, but after the first dozen or so picks, their aren't too many high ceiling guys left that have a decent floor to their game.

And drafting Blandino is far more cost effective than signing Mark Ellis types year to year. That is exactly why the A's and Cards have done so well. They can spend their money on difference makers, not fillers.

I would argue that the A's do the exact opposite: (at least recently), they draft high upside HS players- guys like Billy McKinney and Addison Russell. They spend their money on journeymen and filler types, not premier free agents. In fact prior to last week, they drafted a HS -not college- player in the first round of the last three drafts.

And as far as the Cardinals go, here is a list of the last 12 college players they have drafted in the first round going back to 2007:

Pete Kozma
Clay Mortensen
Brett Wallace
Lance Lynn
Zack Cox
Seth Blair
Kolten Wong
Michael Wacha
James Ramsey
Stephen Piscotty
Patrick Wisdom
Marco Gonzales

Wacha aside, how many of those guys have been impact players at the major league level? In fact, how many have even become average or above average starters at the major league level? And remember - these are the "very high floor" guys you speak of. I would argue that the Cardinals have succeeded based off of:

1. Their ability to acquire talent at the major league level (something Walt has struggled with big time over the last 18 months - partially due to money but partially due to general inactivity/lack of creativity). Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Peter Borjous and Adam Wainwright all fall under this category.

and (as it pertains to this thread's topic)

2. Their ability to find and draft serviceable talent in the later rounds. I'd have no issue at all if the Reds drafted a guy like Blandino on Day 2 or Day 3. I just don't think he carries enough upside to be a top 30 pick, that's all. And fortunately for us, neither do most of the guys the Cardinals picked listed above.

(To illustrate the second point, Allen Craig was an 8th round pick. Matt Carpenter and Albert Pujols were 13th round picks. Matt Adams was a 23rd round pick. Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez and Yadi Molina weren't even drafted - they were international FA, another category which the Reds have pretty much ignored since the great Class of '08 and IMO the place where the Reds need to go to find their future shortstop.)

757690
06-12-2014, 12:15 AM
I would argue that the A's do the exact opposite: (at least recently), they draft high upside HS players- guys like Billy McKinney and Addison Russell. They spend their money on journeymen and filler types, not premier free agents. In fact prior to last week, they drafted a HS -not college- player in the first round of the last three drafts.

And as far as the Cardinals go, here is a list of the last 12 college players they have drafted in the first round going back to 2007:

Pete Kozma
Clay Mortensen
Brett Wallace
Lance Lynn
Zack Cox
Seth Blair
Kolten Wong
Michael Wacha
James Ramsey
Stephen Piscotty
Patrick Wisdom
Marco Gonzales

Wacha aside, how many of those guys have been impact players at the major league level? In fact, how many have even become average or above average starters at the major league level? And remember - these are the "very high floor" guys you speak of. I would argue that the Cardinals have succeeded based off of:

1. Their ability to acquire talent at the major league level (something Walt has struggled with big time over the last 18 months - partially due to money but partially due to general inactivity/lack of creativity). Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Peter Borjous and Adam Wainwright all fall under this category.

and (as it pertains to this thread's topic)

2. Their ability to find and draft serviceable talent in the later rounds. I'd have no issue at all if the Reds drafted a guy like Blandino on Day 2 or Day 3. I just don't think he carries enough upside to be a top 30 pick, that's all. And fortunately for us, neither do most of the guys the Cardinals picked listed above.

(To illustrate the second point, Allen Craig was an 8th round pick. Matt Carpenter and Albert Pujols were 13th round picks. Matt Adams was a 23rd round pick. Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez and Yadi Molina weren't even drafted - they were international FA, another category which the Reds have pretty much ignored since the great Class of '08 and IMO the place where the Reds need to go to find their future shortstop.)

The A's have definitely changed direction in the last few years, but during the moneyball era, drafting baseball players, not athletes, was their philosophy.

As for the Cardinals, that was a pretty impressive list, considering their draft position during those years. Look at who else was take around those rounds. The Cards did quite well all things considered. The got two guys in their rotation, their starting 2B this year, their starting SS last year, a top 100 MLB prospect, a guy they traded for Matt Holiday. I would love it if the Reds got that from their 1st rounders over the next 7 years.

I agree that the key is getting the decent role players in the middle rounds. and we'll see how the Reds do on that. But there's no way Blandino lasts past the second round. Maybe he lasts to pick #58. Maybe not. The Reds felt he wouldn't, and I trust them on that. They have much more information on that they we do.

- - - Updated - - -


Either way, you lose. And who goes to the track to play 3-2 horses?

Pete Rose? But then again, he plays everything when he goes to the track.

Rojo
06-12-2014, 12:22 AM
But there's no way Blandino lasts past the second round. Maybe he lasts to pick #58. Maybe not. The Reds felt he wouldn't, and I trust them on that. They have much more information on that they we do.

I hope they have more information because Blandino doesn't look to me like the kind of player you really kick yourself for missing.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 12:43 AM
The A's have definitely changed direction in the last few years, but during the moneyball era, drafting baseball players, not athletes, was their philosophy.

There is a big difference between upside and athletes. They are not mutually exclusive, but not the same thing either. I loved the Winker and LaValley picks- they are not "athletes" but have high upside bats. I want upside. If they're athletic too that's cool, but ability to be an impact player is what I care about most.


As for the Cardinals, that was a pretty impressive list, considering their draft position during those years. Look at who else was take around those rounds. The Cards did quite well all things considered. The got two guys in their rotation, their starting 2B this year, their starting SS last year, a top 100 MLB prospect, a guy they traded for Matt Holiday. I would love it if the Reds got that from their 1st rounders over the next 7 years.

The Reds have already done better (when it comes to the first two rounds). We have a starting SS, starting 3B, starting C, starting RF, starting CF, one rotation staple (two if you count Cingrani), and three maybe four top 100 prospects. And THREE guys we traded for Latos plus one we traded for Choo. No one has beef with how the Reds have drafted generally on Day 1. I think they've been one of the best teams in the league. It is just a certain type of player that seems to be Buckley's weakness, and I fear Blandino may for that category.


I agree that the key is getting the decent role players in the middle rounds. and we'll see how the Reds do on that. But there's no way Blandino lasts past the second round. Maybe he lasts to pick #58. Maybe not. The Reds felt he wouldn't, and I trust them on that. They have much more information on that they

Unfortunately this has been Buckley's other weakness. Other than Chris Heisey who is a fourth OF, I'm not sure Buckley has found a single other player of any consequence after the fourth round in all of his years here. There were a couple of bullpen arms that had short stints in the show, but I'm not sure if anyone has had any kind of impact. That is where the Cardinals and some other teams have it on us. Of course no one is perfect and everyone has their faults. Buckley's just happen to be finding hidden gems after the fourth round, and low ceiling versatile college hitters who are jacks of all trades (and tools) but masters of none.

And what Rojo said re: missing on Blandino

napalextus
06-12-2014, 12:55 AM
Pete Kozma was drafted out of HS. I fail to see the point in listing the first round college players selected since 2007. Marco Gonzales was drafted last year while Patrick Wisdom, Stephen Piscotty and James Ramsey were drafted in 2012 and Kolten Wong was drafted in 2011. No, they aren't impact major league players or even average starters. Even if it is assumed it takes three years to reach the majors after college only Wong, which he is, would be expected to be with the Cardinals. Even then how many players make an immediate impact? Wacha is an exception. Using that logic one could argue against high upside HS players by citing the Texas Ranger last 6 drafts of HS players: Blake Bevan, Michael Main, Neil Ramirez, Jake Skole, Kellin Deglan, Luke Jackson, Kevin Matthews, Lewis Brinson, Joey Gallo, Collin Wiles, and Travis Demeritte. How many of them are impact players? Average players? Even have an AB or IP? The same doubles for the Cards HS picks of Rob Kaminsky, Steve Bean, Tyrell Jenkins, Shelby Miller, and Pete Kozma.

Answering the question though, Lance Lynn is at least average, Wong is a decent rookie and the aforementioned Wacha. The HS players in that same time frame, Shelby Miller is at least average. Statistically that is 3/11 on the high floor college players compared to 1/5 high ceiling HS players, giving a slight edge to the low floor college players.

I have no problem with picking Blandino. It is not a sexy pick nor a pick that will generate excitement but it is still a solid pick.

corkedbat
06-12-2014, 12:55 AM
I would argue that the A's do the exact opposite: (at least recently), they draft high upside HS players- guys like Billy McKinney and Addison Russell. They spend their money on journeymen and filler types, not premier free agents. In fact prior to last week, they drafted a HS -not college- player in the first round of the last three drafts.

And as far as the Cardinals go, here is a list of the last 12 college players they have drafted in the first round going back to 2007:

Pete Kozma
Clay Mortensen
Brett Wallace
Lance Lynn
Zack Cox
Seth Blair
Kolten Wong
Michael Wacha
James Ramsey
Stephen Piscotty
Patrick Wisdom
Marco Gonzales

Wacha aside, how many of those guys have been impact players at the major league level? In fact, how many have even become average or above average starters at the major league level? And remember - these are the "very high floor" guys you speak of. I would argue that the Cardinals have succeeded based off of:

1. Their ability to acquire talent at the major league level (something Walt has struggled with big time over the last 18 months - partially due to money but partially due to general inactivity/lack of creativity). Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Peter Borjous and Adam Wainwright all fall under this category.

and (as it pertains to this thread's topic)

2. Their ability to find and draft serviceable talent in the later rounds. I'd have no issue at all if the Reds drafted a guy like Blandino on Day 2 or Day 3. I just don't think he carries enough upside to be a top 30 pick, that's all. And fortunately for us, neither do most of the guys the Cardinals picked listed above.

(To illustrate the second point, Allen Craig was an 8th round pick. Matt Carpenter and Albert Pujols were 13th round picks. Matt Adams was a 23rd round pick. Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez and Yadi Molina weren't even drafted - they were international FA, another category which the Reds have pretty much ignored since the great Class of '08 and IMO the place where the Reds need to go to find their future shortstop.)

I find the bolded part of the statement to be a rubbish excuse trotted out by Jocketty. The reason being? There are several contracts on his roster that could be sent the other way (or in another direction) that would set a deal (series of deals) at or near dollar-neutral. I find the under-lined portion to be spot on and largely the whole of the problem.

757690
06-12-2014, 01:04 AM
There is a big difference between upside and athletes. They are not mutually exclusive, but not the same thing either. I loved the Winker and LaValley picks- they are not "athletes" but have high upside bats. I want upside. If they're athletic too that's cool, but ability to be an impact player is what I care about most.



The Reds have already done better (when it comes to the first two rounds). We have a starting SS, starting 3B, starting C, starting RF, starting CF, one rotation staple (two if you count Cingrani), and three maybe four top 100 prospects. And THREE guys we traded for Latos plus one we traded for Choo. No one has beef with how the Reds have drafted generally on Day 1. I think they've been one of the best teams in the league. It is just a certain type of player that seems to be Buckley's weakness, and I fear Blandino may for that category.



Unfortunately this has been Buckley's other weakness. Other than Chris Heisey who is a fourth OF, I'm not sure Buckley has found a single other player of any consequence after the fourth round in all of his years here. There were a couple of bullpen arms that had short stints in the show, but I'm not sure if anyone has had any kind of impact. That is where the Cardinals and some other teams have it on us. Of course no one is perfect and everyone has their faults. Buckley's just happen to be finding hidden gems after the fourth round, and low ceiling versatile college hitters who are jacks of all trades (and tools) but masters of none.

And what Rojo said re: missing on Blandino

Blandino's upside is that he's an infielder that can hit. He'll provide similar*value to Winkler if they both reach their ceiling.

Reds did better because they drafted in a much better position. Lots of top 10 picks and top 15 picks and those are the ones that have worked out the best. Cards were drafting in the 20's and 30's. Big talent gap in those picks historically.

This has been Buckley's weakness, drafting in the late rounds, which is why I like the change in philosophy. We'll see how it works.

The Reds needed a new philosophy on drafting hitters. They needed to draft guys with the hit tool, and that seems to have been the philosophy. If it meant missing guys without the hit tool, but who have a higher ceiling because of athleticism, I don't mind. Reds have enough of those guys already in the system.

PepperJack
06-12-2014, 01:13 AM
The Reds needed a new philosophy on drafting hitters. They needed to draft guys with the hit tool, and that seems to have been the philosophy. If it meant missing guys without the hit tool, but who have a higher ceiling because of athleticism, I don't mind. Reds have enough of those guys already in the system.


There seems to have been a shift to this over the last 3 drafts or so, to target hitters with a stronger hit tool, and a better approach at the plate, ironically starting with the high schooler Winker.

Winker, SMB, Ervin, and now Blandino all seem to fit this new trend. It's early to know whether Blandino will have similar success moving into pro ball, but that seems to be the hope.

I much prefer these kind of hitters in the system, the Reds still take plenty of fliers on the high upside guys with power as well, including Sparks in this past draft.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 01:27 AM
Blandino's upside is that he's an infielder that can hit. He'll provide similar*value to Winkler if they both reach their ceiling.

Reds did better because they drafted in a much better position. Lots of top 10 picks and top 15 picks and those are the ones that have worked out the best. Cards were drafting in the 20's and 30's. Big talent gap in those picks historically.


Disagree. Arguably the six best first round picks (excluding Leake) of Buckley's tenure- Stephenson, Winker, Frazier, Ervin, Lorenzen and Mesoraco were all drafted in the latter half or supplemental part of the first round. Plus Hamilton and Cozart (I guess?) in the second round.

In fact I would argue that the two of his three top ten picks -Stubbs and Alonso- we're arguably his worst first round picks, excluding the sandwich debacle of Gelalich (and hopefully not but maybe Blandino). Yasmani Grandal is another one- I think he had a pretty good hit tool.


This has been Buckley's weakness, drafting in the late rounds, which is why I like the change in philosophy. We'll see how it works.

The Reds needed a new philosophy on drafting hitters. They needed to draft guys with the hit tool, and that seems to have been the philosophy. If it meant missing guys without the hit tool, but who have a higher ceiling because of athleticism, I don't mind. Reds have enough of those guys already in the system.

Who are these guys without the hit tool you speak of that Buckley targeted in the first round previously? Todd Frazier? Yonder Alonso? Yasmani Grandal? I'd argue they were the opposite, and were much higher BA/OBP guys than Blandino in college.

Again it's not athleticism that I'm necessarily after. I love the hit tool. The Winker pick was one of my favorites - both at the time and even more so now. I was also on board with the Ervin pick. And despite all the hand waving, I'm actually not rushing to judgment on Blandino- I'm willing to defer. I'm just concerned given that he seems to fit the same profile as other Buckley draftees like Gelalich, LaMarre, Lohman and Valaika, and I do believe there were several better choices available at the time.

In fact, Gelalich and Blandino had alarmingly similar college numbers, playing in the same conference. Gelalich's we're slightly better. Both were miles behind Frazier, Alonso and Grandal. Ervin too.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 01:43 AM
I find the bolded part of the statement to be a rubbish excuse trotted out by Jocketty. The reason being? There are several contracts on his roster that could be sent the other way (or in another direction) that would set a deal (series of deals) at or near dollar-neutral. I find the under-lined portion to be spot on and largely the whole of the problem.

Agree re: Jocketty and his excuses for inactivity. I was more saying via a vis the Cardinals, who can and have shelled out a lot of dough to sign big name free agents like Holliday and Peralta.

dougdirt
06-12-2014, 02:17 AM
Unfortunately this has been Buckley's other weakness. Other than Chris Heisey who is a fourth OF, I'm not sure Buckley has found a single other player of any consequence after the fourth round in all of his years here. There were a couple of bullpen arms that had short stints in the show, but I'm not sure if anyone has had any kind of impact. That is where the Cardinals and some other teams have it on us. Of course no one is perfect and everyone has their faults. Buckley's just happen to be finding hidden gems after the fourth round, and low ceiling versatile college hitters who are jacks of all trades (and tools) but masters of none.

Still plenty of chances though. Tucker Barnhart, Juan Silva, Drew Cisco, David Vidal who all of a sudden can hit again, Kyle Waldrop, my favorite pick of all: El'Hajj Muhammad in the 49th round.... would love to see him healthy again, Carlos Gonzalez, Amir Garrett, Sal Romano, Bryson Smith, Seth Mejias-Brean, Beau Amaral, Jeremy Kivel, Jose Ortiz, Jackson Stephens. Now, some of these guys were paid quite well (Garrett, Romano and Kivel) like 1st-2nd rounders. Still, I feel pretty comfortable saying in five years more than one of these guys is going to be someone of consequence.

dougdirt
06-12-2014, 02:19 AM
In fact, Gelalich and Blandino had alarmingly similar college numbers, playing in the same conference. Gelalich's we're slightly better. Both were miles behind Frazier, Alonso and Grandal. Ervin too.

Can't compare the days of Frazier/Alonso/Grandal to the dead-bats of Blandino. It's night and day.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 02:44 AM
Still plenty of chances though. Tucker Barnhart, Juan Silva, Drew Cisco, David Vidal who all of a sudden can hit again, Kyle Waldrop, my favorite pick of all: El'Hajj Muhammad in the 49th round.... would love to see him healthy again, Carlos Gonzalez, Amir Garrett, Sal Romano, Bryson Smith, Seth Mejias-Brean, Beau Amaral, Jeremy Kivel, Jose Ortiz, Jackson Stephens. Now, some of these guys were paid quite well (Garrett, Romano and Kivel) like 1st-2nd rounders. Still, I feel pretty comfortable saying in five years more than one of these guys is going to be someone of consequence.

Don't disagree but even you'd admit so far the track record after the first three rounds is below average. Lively and Moscot are fourth rounders of course, which is why I drew the line there. But one player of major league consequence (and still not a full time starter) through 9 drafts isn't good.

I think Barnhart and/or SMB could buck that trend but only time will tell. Maybe Waldrop too if he ever gets promoted.

(Ironically, arguably the best mid/late round pick Buckley ever had never played an inning for the Reds- Justin Turner)

Benihana
06-12-2014, 02:47 AM
Can't compare the days of Frazier/Alonso/Grandal to the dead-bats of Blandino. It's night and day.

Not sure I follow. Plus isn't Gelalich a very fair comparison offensively?

corkedbat
06-12-2014, 03:30 AM
Yeah Benihana, I understood your point. I was just commenting on Jocketty and his use of the "poor little small market team that doesn't have anything to spend card." While i will agree that the Reds financial resources are finite and more limited than some other clubs, to say that you can't make a deal of any kind because there is no cash is tripe and balderdash! Tripe an balderdash I say!

They have moved Philips, Chapman, a starter or required the other team to take on one of Walt's more dubious handouts to do the deal. Maybe Walt did not want to do any of those things, but the money could have been cleared - to say otherwise is disingenuous on WJ's part. Also, it's not as if the only way to improve this club was to take on $20-50M in contracts. There were guys out there like Matt Joyce, Gerardo Parra, Seth Smith, Will Venable, etc. that could've helped in LF that were not making mega bucks and whose deal could have easily be zeroed out by a minor move or two.

RedTeamGo!
06-12-2014, 07:46 AM
Not sure I follow. Plus isn't Gelalich a very fair comparison offensively?

When Frazier, Alonso and Grandal played college ball they used different baseball bats. The college players today use "dead-bats."

757690
06-12-2014, 09:55 AM
Disagree. Arguably the six best first round picks (excluding Leake) of Buckley's tenure- Stephenson, Winker, Frazier, Ervin, Lorenzen and Mesoraco were all drafted in the latter half or supplemental part of the first round. Plus Hamilton and Cozart (I guess?) in the second round.

In fact I would argue that the two of his three top ten picks -Stubbs and Alonso- we're arguably his worst first round picks, excluding the sandwich debacle of Gelalich (and hopefully not but maybe Blandino). Yasmani Grandal is another one- I think he had a pretty good hit tool.



Who are these guys without the hit tool you speak of that Buckley targeted in the first round previously? Todd Frazier? Yonder Alonso? Yasmani Grandal? I'd argue they were the opposite, and were much higher BA/OBP guys than Blandino in college.

Again it's not athleticism that I'm necessarily after. I love the hit tool. The Winker pick was one of my favorites - both at the time and even more so now. I was also on board with the Ervin pick. And despite all the hand waving, I'm actually not rushing to judgment on Blandino- I'm willing to defer. I'm just concerned given that he seems to fit the same profile as other Buckley draftees like Gelalich, LaMarre, Lohman and Valaika, and I do believe there were several better choices available at the time.

In fact, Gelalich and Blandino had alarmingly similar college numbers, playing in the same conference. Gelalich's we're slightly better. Both were miles behind Frazier, Alonso and Grandal. Ervin too.

Why would you exclude Leake? He's a perfect example of a low ceiling pick working out.

Alonso and Grandal were great picks, dominating in the minors enough to get Latos in trade. You couldn't trade Gelalich, LaMarre, Lohman and Valaika at any point for any starting pitcher in the majors. And those last guys are examples of the older drafting philosophy in later rounds, I'm glad the Reds are moving away from that.

As for amateur numbers, history has role us that they don't mean much. There is just is too much variance in the opposition that amatuers face, plus players are deep in the development mode as amateurs.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 10:12 AM
Why would you exclude Leake? He's a perfect example of a low ceiling pick working out.

Alonso and Grandal were great picks, dominating in the minors enough to get Latos in trade. You couldn't trade Gelalich, LaMarre, Lohman and Valaika at any point for any starting pitcher in the majors. And those last guys are examples of the older drafting philosophy in later rounds, I'm glad the Reds are moving away from that.

As for amateur numbers, history has role us that they don't mean much. There is just is too much variance in the opposition that amatuers face, plus players are deep in the development mode as amateurs.

Agreed on Leake - he is an exception to my rule. He was a top 10 pick the Reds made with a lower ceiling but higher floor, and it worked out nicely. I have no problem admitting that. Grandal was a good pick, but I'd argue that so far in his career Yonder Alonso has been a bust- especially for a top 10 pick. A defensively limited 1B with minimal power and a career .716 OPS? That's worse than Brandon Larson. Trust me, I'm happy that Walt duped another team into giving up a top starter for him after 69 big league games.

How is Gelalich an example of the "older drafting philosophy"? He was drafted two years ago, and had nearly identical numbers to Blandino in the same college conference. Which raises your next point - sure it's difficult to compare amateur numbers when talking about high schoolers, but two guys that played in the same college conference two years apart - that's apples to apples.

PepperJack
06-12-2014, 11:41 AM
Blandino reads more like another SMB to me at this point. Just drafted higher because he hit for more power in college, and has a chance to be a middle infielder.

LaMarre was a pick betting on a plus defender in CF, getting back his power potential after a wrist injury, it's yet to work out.

Gelalich, I think, compares more to LaMarre, since he was a college OF, but he had late helium thanks to showing power late in his college season, that he has been unable to duplicate.

dougdirt
06-12-2014, 11:46 AM
Not sure I follow. Plus isn't Gelalich a very fair comparison offensively?

I think it was 3 years ago that college went to the bbcor bats. They play out like wooden bats, with some people saying they are even worse to hit with than wooden bats. Have you watched a college game in the past few years? Listen to the sound of the bat. It doesn't "ping" anymore. It's a dead sound. The new bats are like playing with golf clubs from the 50's compared to guys like Frazier/Grandal/Alonso playing with golf clubs of today. In 2010, there were 0.94 HR per game. In 2011, with the new bats, that number dropped to 0.52.

Gelalich falls into the new category. He only had one year with the old bats.

dougdirt
06-12-2014, 11:49 AM
When a guy can't hit in San Diego, I just have a hard time calling him a bust. That place, much like Seattle, just ruins guys. It gets in their head. They change their swings up to try and be successful there. Heck, Robinson Cano has 3 home runs this season. THREE.

Benihana
06-12-2014, 12:14 PM
When a guy can't hit in San Diego, I just have a hard time calling him a bust. That place, much like Seattle, just ruins guys. It gets in their head. They change their swings up to try and be successful there. Heck, Robinson Cano has 3 home runs this season. THREE.

I understand as far as power is concerned. But he does have a .251 OBP this year. For a 1B without any power, that just doesn't cut it.

dougdirt
06-12-2014, 12:17 PM
I understand as far as power is concerned. But he does have a .251 OBP this year. For a 1B without any power, that just doesn't cut it.

The point was, San Diego makes guys change who they were. Alonso has openly stated he stopped trying to hit for power two years ago because it wasn't going to work in that ballpark. Obviously, he is playing terrible right now. But how much of that is the park messing up everything that he was?

RED VAN HOT
06-12-2014, 01:00 PM
Two points:
Building on an earlier Pepper Jack post, the game is cyclical; it is always changing. It went from power bats to power arms. Teams now have multiple high 90's arm coming out of the pen. High contact guys that can hit 20-25 HR's are becoming more valuable.

High ceiling guys are very important, but they are high risk also. A team must come away from every draft with 2-3 major league players. There is a need to balance risk with some safe choices. To me, Howard was taken because the Reds believed he could be a starter and reach the majors in a relatively short period.
There is risk there. Still, fall back is a top bullpen arm. Sparks is high risk/high reward. Awesome power with a lot of swing and miss in his game. Sandwiched between these picks is Blandino, a relatively safe pick who profiles as an offensive minded second baseman. I think you need to look at all three picks together.

malcontent
06-12-2014, 07:00 PM
nm

Gallen5862
06-19-2014, 07:27 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds To Sign Alex Blandino

By Steve Adams [June 19, 2014 at 5:44pm CDT]

The Reds have agreed to terms with first-round selection Alex Blandino, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (on Twitter). Blandino, the 29th overall selection, will receive the full slot value of $1.788MM, according to Mayo.

The Stanford third baseman ranked 52nd on the Top 200 draft prospects list compiled by Mayo and his colleague, Jim Callis. ESPN’s Keith Law was a bigger fan and ranked Blandino 39th on the final edition of his Top 100, and Baseball America liked him even more, pegging Blandino at No. 30 on their pre-draft Top 500.

In his Junior season for the Cardinals, Blandino hit .310/.397/.531 with 12 homers, 14 doubles and a pair of steals. He was drafted by the A’s back in 2011 (in the 38th round) but he instead elected to attend college. Clearly, that decision paid off in the short-term, from a financial standpoint.

BA praised his bat speed and quick wrists, noting that he stays inside the ball well but at times “sells out trying to generate home run power.” BA feels that his power may end up being merely average and suggests that a move to second base makes sense, as his bat will play better there. Law agrees that a move to second is possible due to his bat, but thinks Blandino can handle the hot corner defensively. Mayo and Callis praise his plate discipline and ability to hit the ball to all fields, though they, too, note that a move to second seems likely.

Blandino was one of two first-round picks for Cincinnati, who also selected Virgina righty Nick Howard with the No. 19 overall selection. The Reds received the No. 29 overall selection as compensation for losing Shin-Soo Choo to free agency. Blandino’s agreement means that 25 of the 34 first-round selections in this year’s draft have signed or agreed to terms.

wastedtime
06-20-2014, 05:02 PM
Is it safe to assume Blandino is going to Billings?

Edd Roush
07-24-2014, 05:06 PM
Blandino is now slashing .304/.414/.543 in his first 111 PAs in Billings. Clearly, he is off to a good start at the plate. Has anyone heard anything about his defense? How is he looking at short? Could he stick there in the bigs? If Blandino is a legit SS prospect, he becomes very interesting.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2014, 11:11 PM
Blandino is now slashing .304/.414/.543 in his first 111 PAs in Billings. Clearly, he is off to a good start at the plate. Has anyone heard anything about his defense? How is he looking at short? Could he stick there in the bigs? If Blandino is a legit SS prospect, he becomes very interesting.

It's still very early obviously, but he's looking less and less like a reach at where he was picked. Even if he can't play SS, I'd take that kind of output at 2B to eventually replace Phillips all day.

Rojo
07-25-2014, 04:47 AM
It's still very early obviously, but he's looking less and less like a reach at where he was picked. Even if he can't play SS, I'd take that kind of output at 2B to eventually replace Phillips all day.

Yep, I'm not complaining. But it is the Pioneer League, where Gary Redus hit over .400.

The reports were that Blandino wouldn't stay at short and might be a pedestrian glove at 3rd or 2nd. That was my problem with the pick -- that he might be a tweener.

My guess is that we're look at a Matt Carpenter ceiling.

mdccclxix
07-25-2014, 10:20 AM
Here is his player page at mlbfarm.com. It shows his hit locations and a bunch of other cool stuff: http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=607468&position=DH

Tom Servo
07-25-2014, 02:36 PM
I'm very curious as to what the timeline plan is for Blandino. In his first pro season Frazier started in Billings and finished in Dayton, wonder if that is what we will see with Blandino.

dougdirt
07-25-2014, 05:34 PM
I'm very curious as to what the timeline plan is for Blandino. In his first pro season Frazier started in Billings and finished in Dayton, wonder if that is what we will see with Blandino.

I would doubt it simply because they want him at shortstop and they aren't going to just move Carlton Daal off of the spot for a few week call up. I would expect him to finish out the season in Billings, then depending on what the Reds want to do with him re: shortstop, it will probably determine where he winds up. If he is going into 2015 as a shortstop, he will be wherever Daal isn't among the A-ball levels. If he is going to be at second base, there's not someone standing in his way at either level.

fearofpopvol1
07-26-2014, 02:03 AM
Yep, I'm not complaining. But it is the Pioneer League, where Gary Redus hit over .400.

The reports were that Blandino wouldn't stay at short and might be a pedestrian glove at 3rd or 2nd. That was my problem with the pick -- that he might be a tweener.

My guess is that we're look at a Matt Carpenter ceiling.

True. Perhaps the Lohman pick jaded me and the fact that Blandino seems to be several cuts above him has me optimistic.

powersackers
07-27-2014, 11:15 AM
I didn't like the pick, but am warming up to it. Dick Schofield is helping him re-adjust to SS and he "shows range, quickness and arm strength there"

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140724&content_id=85986620&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

Tom Servo
05-03-2015, 02:28 AM
We should talk about Blandino more! He's overshadowed by teammate Ervin, but he's been hammering Florida State League pitching as well.


And I'd forgotten how much gnashing of teeth there was last year!

RedlegJake
05-03-2015, 11:30 AM
2015 Daytona 3 HR .288/.370/.488/.857 80 ABs
Minors Career 11 HR .284/.368/.481/.849 324 ABs

That's consistency. Has hit well at every level, raked at Billings, as he should have, and is rocking the FSL, a much more difficult league for hitters, plus, he is holding his own at SS. Every "safe" pick should do so well....and maybe the Reds should look a bit more at "safe" picks. Leake, Lively (traded, of course), Blandino, Howard, even Ervin was considered a bit of a safe pick, as was Lorenzen - seem to be doing much better than the high ceiling picks.

Thanks Doug

dougdirt
05-03-2015, 11:36 AM
*raked at Billings*

Chuckie
05-04-2015, 11:17 AM
I love Blandino. He's a bit Vottoesqe with the walks. Also hits for a good average and has some pop. Absolutely love him.

BP's heir apparent at 2B. No, I'm not buying Blandino will stick at SS.

Keep in mind he was the compensatory pick we got for losing Choo. Compensatory picks can be extremely valuable.

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2015, 04:27 PM
I've yet to see Blandino play. I know many have suggested he'll have to move off of short. Can anybody who's seen him play explain why? Range? Arm?

Thus far, I love what I've seeing stat-wise with the bat...but some first-hand feedback on the glove would be appreciated.

dougdirt
06-05-2015, 12:19 AM
Doesn't have the range to play shortstop.

RedlegJake
06-05-2015, 12:00 PM
Luckily the Reds are positioned pretty well in the future at the keystone combo. Blandino doesn't need to stick at SS as long as Suarez is legitimate (and he sure is looking like he is). I'm just excited to see how well he is hitting. No long hot streaks. No long cold streaks. Just day to day consistency and plenty of walks with a bit of home run pop and good gap power. The next jump is maybe the biggest before reaching the majors, though. I'm anxious/hoping to see him handling AA. (Especially with hitters, AA seems to be the plateau that rocks them a bit).

bellhead
06-05-2015, 01:12 PM
Doesn't have the range to play shortstop.

Doug,

Is there anybody in the 4 minor teams that has the range to play SS at the MLB level besides Suarez? Daal?

dougdirt
06-05-2015, 01:19 PM
Doug,

Is there anybody in the 4 minor teams that has the range to play SS at the MLB level besides Suarez? Daal?

Daal, Vincej and Gonzalez can all play there - it's just about the bat with those three. I've got more faith in the bats of Daal and Gonzalez than Vincej, but they've all got things that they need to work on with the bat to become a guy to really start talking about.

bellhead
06-05-2015, 01:22 PM
Doug,

What are your impressions of Daal, btw?

thanks

RedlegJake
06-05-2015, 01:23 PM
How about Juan Perez. The 2011 pick has made it to Pensacola and, like the others you mention seems to be about whether he can hit more than can his glove handle SS

dougdirt
06-05-2015, 01:27 PM
How about Juan Perez. The 2011 pick has made it to Pensacola and, like the others you mention seems to be about whether he can hit more than can his glove handle SS

I've never thought he was a true shortstop, but more of a second baseman. I've been told I'm not entirely accurate there by a few people though, but a majority are on my side there.

M2
06-05-2015, 01:41 PM
Doesn't have the range to play shortstop.

I'm baffled as to why he's playing there. 2B is obviously his destination.

_Sir_Charles_
06-05-2015, 02:38 PM
Thanks for the insights Douglas.

_Sir_Charles_
06-05-2015, 02:42 PM
Luckily the Reds are positioned pretty well in the future at the keystone combo. Blandino doesn't need to stick at SS as long as Suarez is legitimate (and he sure is looking like he is). I'm just excited to see how well he is hitting. No long hot streaks. No long cold streaks. Just day to day consistency and plenty of walks with a bit of home run pop and good gap power. The next jump is maybe the biggest before reaching the majors, though. I'm anxious/hoping to see him handling AA. (Especially with hitters, AA seems to be the plateau that rocks them a bit).

I like the chances for both Suarez and Blandino, but I wouldn't say the Reds are well positioned. If either gets hurt or doesn't work out there's still no real depth there. MI depth and catcher depth is still a serious issue on the farm IMO.

Reds Freak
06-05-2015, 03:25 PM
The SS to 2B/3B is not a hard transition to make. I'd play him there for as long as possible so when he reaches the bigs you can at least plug him in at SS in a pinch knowing he's had experience there. That way you don't have to carry a guy like Negron on the roster just because no one else can play SS.

Rojo
06-11-2015, 04:50 PM
I don't like the idea of guy with range issues moving to second.

Edd Roush
06-11-2015, 05:03 PM
I don't like the idea of guy with range issues moving to second.

Why?

A second baseman by nature is responsible for less ground than a SS. Therefore, below average range at SS could be adequate range at 2B.

Rojo
06-11-2015, 05:36 PM
Therefore, below average range at SS could be adequate range at 2B.

It's that "adequate" I don't like.

fearofpopvol1
06-12-2015, 02:31 PM
It's that "adequate" I don't like.

Brandon Phillips seemed to handle the move fine. Though I don't think Blandino is Phillips with the glove.

kpresidente
06-12-2015, 02:59 PM
A second baseman by nature is responsible for less ground than a SS. Therefore, below average range at SS could be adequate range at 2B.

Also 2B has a shorter throw so he plays back further to to cut off more balls.

Rojo
06-12-2015, 03:33 PM
Brandon Phillips seemed to handle the move fine. Though I don't think Blandino is Phillips with the glove.

But there was never a knock on BP's range. Mostly SS who are slower than average move to third. If they're arm's suspect, they move to 2nd.

I'd move Blandino to third and hope he bangs down Frazier's door.

WrongVerb
06-13-2015, 02:50 PM
I personally like the idea of him becoming a Bret Boone or Jeff Kent type. He'll obviously need more pop for that to happen though. As he would if he needed to move to 3rd.

RED VAN HOT
06-14-2015, 10:19 PM
2B is for me a difficult position to profile. I see the phrase 'offensive minded second baseman' and immediately I wonder just how much he is giving up on defense.

Banshee
06-15-2015, 01:49 AM
If he can hit, he can play on this team, period. The reds need offense. If he's just a bit lacking defensively, I don't care one whit. Just be avg. on D, and better than that w/ the stick and he can be a red imho.

gilpdawg
06-15-2015, 05:41 AM
If he can hit, he can play on this team, period. The reds need offense. If he's just a bit lacking defensively, I don't care one whit. Just be avg. on D, and better than that w/ the stick and he can be a red imho.

With the rotation looking like it's gonna be all kids for the near future, plus defense becomes even MORE important.

RedlegJake
06-15-2015, 09:58 AM
With the rotation looking like it's gonna be all kids for the near future, plus defense becomes even MORE important.

Yeah - then we can watch kids lose 3-2 every night because of no offense. First, Blandino is not some statue out there. He makes all the plays he should but, for a ML SS, his range is limited. You don't need SS range to play second - you need agility and quickness more than great range and you need a bit less arm. Where is this idea coming from Blandino can't play second for lack of tools?

gilpdawg
06-15-2015, 10:00 AM
Yeah - then we can watch kids lose 3-2 every night because of no offense. First, Blandino is not some statue out there. He makes all the plays he should but, for a ML SS, his range is limited. You don't need SS range to play second - you need agility and quickness more than great range and you need a bit less arm. Where is this idea coming from Blandino can't play second for lack of tools?

Didn't mean to insinuate that he couldn't play second, just saying that it's a bad idea to have a guy with low range at short.

Steve4192
06-16-2015, 07:37 AM
Didn't mean to insinuate that he couldn't play second, just saying that it's a bad idea to have a guy with low range at short.

Cal Ripken didn't have much range. He seemed to work out pretty well for the Orioles. Ripken always seemed to know where a struck ball would be going before it even got to the batter, and made sure he was in it's path. Baseball smarts and instincts can compensate for a lack of range.

gilpdawg
06-16-2015, 08:10 AM
Cal Ripken didn't have much range. He seemed to work out pretty well for the Orioles. Ripken always seemed to know where a struck ball would be going before it even got to the batter, and made sure he was in it's path. Baseball smarts and instincts can compensate for a lack of range.

Well yeah, but you're talking about a hall of famer so normal rules don't apply.

In hindsight, Baltimore played that perfectly. He moved to third right when he began to decline instead of 3 years too late like most cases.(Griffey, etc.) Ever look at his 1991 season? 162 OPS+ and +22 runs on defense! (I know defensive stats are murky back then, but he was +20 or more for 3 years in a row and +11 or more for 7 consecutive years, so I totally buy it.)

Rojo
06-16-2015, 02:12 PM
Cal Ripken didn't have much range. He seemed to work out pretty well for the Orioles. Ripken always seemed to know where a struck ball would be going before it even got to the batter, and made sure he was in it's path. Baseball smarts and instincts can compensate for a lack of range.

Yes, it can be done. Weaver put Ripken at SS, even though he profiled better at 3rd, because the O's didn't have a SS, Ripken positioned well and he had a great arm that allowed him to play back.

I get that you don't have to be a burner to play 2nd, but I think it helps, a lot. Blandino might be Brett Boone. He might be Todd Walker.

BillDoran
06-16-2015, 02:22 PM
Yes, it can be done. Weaver put Ripken at SS, even though he profiled better at 3rd, because the O's didn't have a SS, Ripken positioned well and he had a great arm that allowed him to play back.

I get that you don't have to be a burner to play 2nd, but I think it helps, a lot. Blandino might be Brett Boone. He might be Todd Walker.

Whether he plays SS or 2B or 3B, he's showed diminishing pop at each level (ISOs: .217 at Billings, .179 in Dayton and .117 on the season). Small samples and all, and the bat and plate discipline look like they'll play, but a mildly disconcerting trend may be developing. The most recent returns suggest more Bip Roberts than Brett Boone or Jeff Kent.

One thing we know with certainty about Blandino; he is no base-stealing threat. Seven-of-17 on the season.

dougdirt
06-16-2015, 02:24 PM
Whether he plays SS or 2B or 3B, he's showed diminishing pop at each level (ISOs: .217 at Billings, .179 in Dayton and .117 on the season). Small samples and all, and the bat and plate discipline look like they'll play, but a mildly disconcerting trend may be developing. The most recent returns suggest more Bip Roberts than Brett Boone or Jeff Kent.

One thing we know with certainty about Blandino; he is no base-stealing threat. Seven-of-17 on the season.

Blandino's not going to be a power hitter. He will hit some homers in the teen range, but that's probably it.

Billings is a hitter friendly league - but the worst hitters stadium in the league. Dayton is a slightly hitter friendly stadium, but a pitcher friendly league. Daytona is a slightly hitter friendly stadium, but the league is the worst place to hit at in the minor leagues. So the dropping power isn't much of a surprise - it's probably league based more than anything else.

Tom Servo
07-02-2015, 09:30 AM
Blandino is currently 3rd in the FSL in .OBP (.372) and 7th in .SLG (.428), which is good for an .800 OPS, 2nd best in the FSL.

bellhead
07-02-2015, 11:09 AM
Blandino is currently 3rd in the FSL in .OBP (.372) and 7th in .SLG (.428), which is good for an .800 OPS, 2nd best in the FSL.

We need to get him over to Pensacola asap and find out if he has what it takes to hit AA ball.