What's Behind Baseball's Right-Handed Power Decline (link)

[IslandRed]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/explaining-mlb-right-handed-power-decline/


No one interviewed for this story is confident in a catchall answer to explain the decline, and the most common theory is that this is merely the natural ebb and flow. ... Some underlying numbers and hypotheses suggest that the scarcity is more prevailing than passing.

[WrongVerb]

Only eight right-handed hitters reached 30 home runs in 2013, and only 36 hit 20 homers, both the fewest in a non-strike-shortened season since 1992.


Only 11 righties posted a slugging percentage above .500 last year, also the fewest in any season since 1992.


for the second consecutive year, teams are scoring 4.17 runs per game, the lowest rate since 1992


In 2014, righty hitters are homering off righty pitchers just once every 36.2 at-bats, the third-worst rate since 1993, slightly trailing 2013 and 2011.

Hmmmm...I can't think of anything that happened in baseball between the early 1990s and the late 2000s that might have inflated power numbers for players. No, nothing at all.

[swaisuc]

Interesting topic. Why didn't he include overall rhb vs lhb batting statistics? I got the impression that overall lefties are killing them, but I don't think he gives the numbers.

[Big Klu]

Hmmmm...I can't think of anything that happened in baseball between the early 1990s and the late 2000s that might have inflated power numbers for players. No, nothing at all.

I assume you are referring to PED's, which no doubt are a factor. But I think another factor that is often overlooked is the two rounds of expansion that took place in 1993 and again in 1998. Pitching was incredibly watered-down throughout most of the 90's and 00's, and is only now getting back to pre-expansion quality. Combine that with "better hitting through chemistry", and we get the slo-pitch softball scores that were so prevalent during that era.

[WrongVerb]

I assume you are referring to PED's, which no doubt are a factor. But I think another factor that is often overlooked is the two rounds of expansion that took place in 1993 and again in 1998. Pitching was incredibly watered-down throughout most of the 90's and 00's, and is only now getting back to pre-expansion quality. Combine that with "better hitting through chemistry", and we get the slo-pitch softball scores that were so prevalent during that era.

Yeah, I've always discounted expansion, but that does make sense as at least part of the increase. Come to think of it, baseball hasn't expanded in 16 years. The population has gone up about 15% in that time. A corresponding increase would take it to 34 major league teams. Sorry, just thinking out loud there.

[Tony Cloninger]

I assume you are referring to PED's, which no doubt are a factor. But I think another factor that is often overlooked is the two rounds of expansion that took place in 1993 and again in 1998. Pitching was incredibly watered-down throughout most of the 90's and 00's, and is only now getting back to pre-expansion quality. Combine that with "better hitting through chemistry", and we get the slo-pitch softball scores that were so prevalent during that era.

I have said this too. Pat me and you on the back, of course.

Same thing happened in 1961-62 expansions in AL/NL..... where you saw offenses go up both those years and baseball,panic....and start widening the strike zone in order to avoid another Roger Maris situation.

1969 was the same thing and they had lowered the mound as well.....so that was a double whammy. Whammy! Thanks Champ!

Everyone always talks about the DH helping AL offenses but until 1977....NL still scored more runs and hit more homers.....then guess what? Expansion only in the AL. Whammy. Offense rises up again and has not let up since in the AL...as it is always ahead of the NL.

[WrongVerb]

You know, if you could make the argument that most of the offensive increase in the 90s and 00s WAS due to expansion, wouldn't that be an even better argument against PEDs? Essentially saying they don't really work and the effect of them was a mirage caused by expansion.

[Chip R]

Yeah, I've always discounted expansion, but that does make sense as at least part of the increase. Come to think of it, baseball hasn't expanded in 16 years. The population has gone up about 15% in that time. A corresponding increase would take it to 34 major league teams. Sorry, just thinking out loud there.

You also have to include foreign players in the pool. Japan and Korea have sent more players to MLB and now Cuba is opening up too.

[Yachtzee]

I have said this too. Pat me and you on the back, of course.

Same thing happened in 1961-62 expansions in AL/NL..... where you saw offenses go up both those years and baseball,panic....and start widening the strike zone in order to avoid another Roger Maris situation.

1969 was the same thing and they had lowered the mound as well.....so that was a double whammy. Whammy! Thanks Champ!

Everyone always talks about the DH helping AL offenses but until 1977....NL still scored more runs and hit more homers.....then guess what? Expansion only in the AL. Whammy. Offense rises up again and has not let up since in the AL...as it is always ahead of the NL.

I had once heard someone explain the reason for NL dominance in statistical areas (and winning All Star games) as a result of the NL being more proactive in the '50s and '60s in scouting African-American communities and Latin America. I think expansion would have the same effect on all teams regardless of which league they joined, just because there are more teams scouting and competing for talent.

My feeling is that expansion is due. I also think MLB would benefit from allowing teams to run development academies for youth players similar to what is used in international soccer. It would differ from travel ball in that players don't have to pay to play, so it would be available to players regardless of family income. To encourage such programs, teams would be able to sign homegrown players from their academies outside the draft. Teams would also be wise to invest in supporting rec leagues in their region to serve as feeders for their academies

[Cedric]

Best athletes don't often play baseball anymore. Dave Winfield, Sheffield, Frank Thomas types I'm saying.

It's a scrappy game these days.

[marcshoe]

Hmmmm...I can't think of anything that happened in baseball between the early 1990s and the late 2000s that might have inflated power numbers for players. No, nothing at all.

I'm fairly sure it was a prank pulled by mr mxyzptlk.

[Big Klu]

Something else to consider:

In 1992, there were 26 clubs and each club had a 10-man pitching staff. (There were a handful of teams carrying 11 pitchers, but 10 was standard.) That means there were 260 pitching jobs in MLB, and 390 position player jobs.

In 1998, due to expansion to 30 clubs and a philosophical change in the industry to a 12-man pitching staff, there were 360 pitching jobs in MLB. That's an additional 100 pitchers in the big leagues from what there had been only six years earlier. On the other hand, the total number of position player jobs in MLB remained unchanged at 390 after expansion. So the additional jobs provided by expansion (players who would have been in the minors in 1992) were almost exclusively pitchers.

[jojo]

Basebol is dying.

[Ironman92]

HGH Pop-tarts have been banned

[IslandRed]

Interesting topic. Why didn't he include overall rhb vs lhb batting statistics? I got the impression that overall lefties are killing them, but I don't think he gives the numbers.

Good point. He says right-handed hitters (on a per-player basis) have lost more power than left-handers, but didn't show the numbers.

(Psst to all the PED comments -- the article was not about power in general, but long-term trends of right-handed power relative to left-handed power.)