Bourgeois Zee
12-31-2014, 11:16 AM
You're the GM and have two moves to make Cincinnati right. What you got?
Here's mine.
1. Reds trade Johnny Cueto and Sean Marshall to the Boston Red Sox for Shane Victorino, Mookie Betts, and Anthony Ranaudo.
Why it works for Boston:
The Red Sox have eight outfielders right now. Eight. Sure, some could play other positions, but there just isn't enough playing time to appease everyone. They're stacked with very good players too, and these players expect to play almost every day. In fact, the only thing they're missing is a true ace.
Enter Cueto.
He's a bone fide number one hurler capable of leading a team through the playoffs. He's also cheap.
Losing Betts may hurt; however, the additions (via free agency) of Ramirez and Sandoval plus a stacked OF (Castillo, Nava, Craig, Nava, Bradley, Ramirez, and Holt) help ease that pain. Should he stay in Boston, how much time would he receive? And it's not like he's a sure thing, either. Plenty of prospects have fizzled after a great minor league career. There's risk there.
Speaking of risk, Marshall is a gamble. He could be a dominant reliever, capable of shutting down opposing hitters for multiple innings. He could be on the shelf the entire year. Regardless, Boston should be willing to take on the risk. Their bullpen is decent, but a guy like Marshall is always great to have. He costs only money, and Boston has that in spades.
Why it works for Cincinnati:
This deal re-stocks the Reds for this year and the future. It does come at a significant cost. However, Cueto has already said he wants to be paid like an ace and isn't willing to sign as friendly a contract as last time. He's looking for ace money (as he should). With Bailey, Votto, Phillips, Chapman, and Bruce already on the team and signed to big contracts, it doesn't seem likely that they can afford him. (It doesn't help that three of those deals are, at this point, too much of a gamble for others to take on.) It really hurts the pitching staff this season, make no mistake.
The best piece the Reds would receive would be Betts. He can play 2B and any of the three OF spots right now. He also has spent time at SS as a prepster and only moved because Bogaerts was in front of him and ticketed as a star. According to scouting services, he could still play there (http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p3621). I'd move him back to SS for the time being. He'd make up for whatever defensive shortcomings with his prospective bat. If he struggles to make the plays at SS, he could be moved to LF or RF or even CF should someone struggle.
Victorino (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml) would make an ideal placeholder for Winker or as a fourth OFer should Betts not be able to stick at SS. He's still capable of hitting well enough to be a top of the order hitter. In just the last two years, his numbers are .288/ .341/ .437 .778. That's a lot more than Ludwick's given the Reds in the same time. He also has enough pop left in his bat to hit lower in the order if need be. As a LF, his defense would be plus, and he could also play CF or RF should the other Red OFers need a blow. He does make a ton of money ($13 million), but with the money the Reds saved on the Simon and Latos deals, they could afford it. (This deal actually saves the Reds $3 million overall.)
Lastly, Ranaudo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ranauan01.shtml) takes over a rotation spot. He's not Cueto, certainly, but he has promise. His time in the majors was extremely odd, as he gave up home runs at an impossible rate. His minor league career has shown he's actually unlikely to give up all that many dingers and a penchant for . With the Red defense behind him, he could very well become a Simon clone. For the Reds, he'd be a BOR guy to begin with, with Bailey, Cingrani (if he's not moved to the 'pen), and Leake ahead of him and DeSclafani equal. That's not a great rotation, but the Cincinnati defense should help cover its issues. A healthy Cingrani and Bailey would also go a long way to making it at least league average. He's got six years' of team control as well.
2. Reds trade Zack Cozart to the New York Mets for Jon Niese.
Why it works for New York:
The Mets have needed a shortstop seemingly since Rey Ordonez left town. They also really want to get rid of veteran (re, expensive) starters in lieu of prospects. (They are flush with pitching prospects.) They also save a few million with this deal. What's not to like?
Cozart's bat? Okay, fair enough. Let's discuss that.
Cozart's bWAR last year, in his worst offensive season by a wide, wide margin was still 2.4 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cozarza01.shtml). That makes him .7 runs above average even when he can't hit himself out of a wet paper bag. And he's got a history of being, if not a good offensive player, at least enough of a bat to make himself a solid starter. That's some great value for a pitcher you're looking to dump anyway.
Why it works for Cincinnati:
Niese is an average pitcher (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niesejo01.shtml#contracts) whose peripherals look pretty solid, especially considering the defense he'd have behind him. He's still of an age where he could pitch effectively (and hit another level) over the next five years. Too, his contract is extremely team-friendly, with $7 million his current salary, $9 million in 2016, and two team options for $10 and $11 million beyond that. He'd be a dependable arm in the mold of Brandon Arroyo for the team to build prospects around for four years at a reasonable price.
These deals would make the Reds younger and allow for an extension of the competitive window. They're also salary neutral for the short-term and better balance the team risk equation.
The batting order:
Betts SS
Victorino LF
Votto 1B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Hamilton CF
Phillips 2B
Comment: Balanced LH and RH with few weaknesses. Hamilton ahead of Phillips at the end of the order to balance it out and give Phillips the opportunity to increase his obp (via BBs in front of the pitcher) for possible future deal. Power also plays well in the 8th spot. OBP in the first four spots give Bruce, Frazier multiple RBI opportunities. Lots of speed, with four capable of stealing 20+ bases, two capable of 40+. Four also capable of 20+ HR.
The rotation:
Bailey
Leake
Niese
Ranaudo
DeSclafani
Comment: Say hello to a league average rotation. Upside with four starters and defense gives hope that ERA+ will outstrip FIP by half a run. Rotation really depends on Bailey to remain healthy and reach ace status seen in glimpses over the past three years and Leake's continuing emergence as at least a #3. Prospects Lorenzen, Stephenson, Lively make this a tenable deal for the present. Cingrani may be needed in the rotation, as he's been dominant when healthy. Starting depth includes Holmberg in Louisville, the aforementioned Cingrani, Raisel Iglesias at the major league level, Jon Moscot and the three top prospects already mentioned in AAA.
Bullpen:
Chapman CL
Cingrani LH S/U
Diaz RH S/U
Iglesias RH S/U
Parra LOOGY
LeCure ROOGY
Axelrod LH LR
Contreras/ Corcino RH LR
Comment: Some awesome arms here, led by otherworldly Chapman. Price wanted to use him in more unorthodox ways last year. That could be used this year to great effect. Cingrani, Diaz, and Iglesias round out the upper end of the pen, all with very good arms. (Iglesias could also see time in the rotation, but is needed here more.) Parra and LeCure take smaller roles after struggling in 2014. Both should be good in those roles, especially Parra. This might make him tradeable later on as well. Axlerod and/or Contreras/ Corcino would ride the I-71 express between AAA starting and major league long relief. Prospective relievers include any of the minor league starting candidates, Ryan Dennick, Hoover, Magill, Villareal.
Here's mine.
1. Reds trade Johnny Cueto and Sean Marshall to the Boston Red Sox for Shane Victorino, Mookie Betts, and Anthony Ranaudo.
Why it works for Boston:
The Red Sox have eight outfielders right now. Eight. Sure, some could play other positions, but there just isn't enough playing time to appease everyone. They're stacked with very good players too, and these players expect to play almost every day. In fact, the only thing they're missing is a true ace.
Enter Cueto.
He's a bone fide number one hurler capable of leading a team through the playoffs. He's also cheap.
Losing Betts may hurt; however, the additions (via free agency) of Ramirez and Sandoval plus a stacked OF (Castillo, Nava, Craig, Nava, Bradley, Ramirez, and Holt) help ease that pain. Should he stay in Boston, how much time would he receive? And it's not like he's a sure thing, either. Plenty of prospects have fizzled after a great minor league career. There's risk there.
Speaking of risk, Marshall is a gamble. He could be a dominant reliever, capable of shutting down opposing hitters for multiple innings. He could be on the shelf the entire year. Regardless, Boston should be willing to take on the risk. Their bullpen is decent, but a guy like Marshall is always great to have. He costs only money, and Boston has that in spades.
Why it works for Cincinnati:
This deal re-stocks the Reds for this year and the future. It does come at a significant cost. However, Cueto has already said he wants to be paid like an ace and isn't willing to sign as friendly a contract as last time. He's looking for ace money (as he should). With Bailey, Votto, Phillips, Chapman, and Bruce already on the team and signed to big contracts, it doesn't seem likely that they can afford him. (It doesn't help that three of those deals are, at this point, too much of a gamble for others to take on.) It really hurts the pitching staff this season, make no mistake.
The best piece the Reds would receive would be Betts. He can play 2B and any of the three OF spots right now. He also has spent time at SS as a prepster and only moved because Bogaerts was in front of him and ticketed as a star. According to scouting services, he could still play there (http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p3621). I'd move him back to SS for the time being. He'd make up for whatever defensive shortcomings with his prospective bat. If he struggles to make the plays at SS, he could be moved to LF or RF or even CF should someone struggle.
Victorino (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml) would make an ideal placeholder for Winker or as a fourth OFer should Betts not be able to stick at SS. He's still capable of hitting well enough to be a top of the order hitter. In just the last two years, his numbers are .288/ .341/ .437 .778. That's a lot more than Ludwick's given the Reds in the same time. He also has enough pop left in his bat to hit lower in the order if need be. As a LF, his defense would be plus, and he could also play CF or RF should the other Red OFers need a blow. He does make a ton of money ($13 million), but with the money the Reds saved on the Simon and Latos deals, they could afford it. (This deal actually saves the Reds $3 million overall.)
Lastly, Ranaudo (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ranauan01.shtml) takes over a rotation spot. He's not Cueto, certainly, but he has promise. His time in the majors was extremely odd, as he gave up home runs at an impossible rate. His minor league career has shown he's actually unlikely to give up all that many dingers and a penchant for . With the Red defense behind him, he could very well become a Simon clone. For the Reds, he'd be a BOR guy to begin with, with Bailey, Cingrani (if he's not moved to the 'pen), and Leake ahead of him and DeSclafani equal. That's not a great rotation, but the Cincinnati defense should help cover its issues. A healthy Cingrani and Bailey would also go a long way to making it at least league average. He's got six years' of team control as well.
2. Reds trade Zack Cozart to the New York Mets for Jon Niese.
Why it works for New York:
The Mets have needed a shortstop seemingly since Rey Ordonez left town. They also really want to get rid of veteran (re, expensive) starters in lieu of prospects. (They are flush with pitching prospects.) They also save a few million with this deal. What's not to like?
Cozart's bat? Okay, fair enough. Let's discuss that.
Cozart's bWAR last year, in his worst offensive season by a wide, wide margin was still 2.4 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cozarza01.shtml). That makes him .7 runs above average even when he can't hit himself out of a wet paper bag. And he's got a history of being, if not a good offensive player, at least enough of a bat to make himself a solid starter. That's some great value for a pitcher you're looking to dump anyway.
Why it works for Cincinnati:
Niese is an average pitcher (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niesejo01.shtml#contracts) whose peripherals look pretty solid, especially considering the defense he'd have behind him. He's still of an age where he could pitch effectively (and hit another level) over the next five years. Too, his contract is extremely team-friendly, with $7 million his current salary, $9 million in 2016, and two team options for $10 and $11 million beyond that. He'd be a dependable arm in the mold of Brandon Arroyo for the team to build prospects around for four years at a reasonable price.
These deals would make the Reds younger and allow for an extension of the competitive window. They're also salary neutral for the short-term and better balance the team risk equation.
The batting order:
Betts SS
Victorino LF
Votto 1B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Hamilton CF
Phillips 2B
Comment: Balanced LH and RH with few weaknesses. Hamilton ahead of Phillips at the end of the order to balance it out and give Phillips the opportunity to increase his obp (via BBs in front of the pitcher) for possible future deal. Power also plays well in the 8th spot. OBP in the first four spots give Bruce, Frazier multiple RBI opportunities. Lots of speed, with four capable of stealing 20+ bases, two capable of 40+. Four also capable of 20+ HR.
The rotation:
Bailey
Leake
Niese
Ranaudo
DeSclafani
Comment: Say hello to a league average rotation. Upside with four starters and defense gives hope that ERA+ will outstrip FIP by half a run. Rotation really depends on Bailey to remain healthy and reach ace status seen in glimpses over the past three years and Leake's continuing emergence as at least a #3. Prospects Lorenzen, Stephenson, Lively make this a tenable deal for the present. Cingrani may be needed in the rotation, as he's been dominant when healthy. Starting depth includes Holmberg in Louisville, the aforementioned Cingrani, Raisel Iglesias at the major league level, Jon Moscot and the three top prospects already mentioned in AAA.
Bullpen:
Chapman CL
Cingrani LH S/U
Diaz RH S/U
Iglesias RH S/U
Parra LOOGY
LeCure ROOGY
Axelrod LH LR
Contreras/ Corcino RH LR
Comment: Some awesome arms here, led by otherworldly Chapman. Price wanted to use him in more unorthodox ways last year. That could be used this year to great effect. Cingrani, Diaz, and Iglesias round out the upper end of the pen, all with very good arms. (Iglesias could also see time in the rotation, but is needed here more.) Parra and LeCure take smaller roles after struggling in 2014. Both should be good in those roles, especially Parra. This might make him tradeable later on as well. Axlerod and/or Contreras/ Corcino would ride the I-71 express between AAA starting and major league long relief. Prospective relievers include any of the minor league starting candidates, Ryan Dennick, Hoover, Magill, Villareal.