Reasons for Optimism

[Bourgeois Zee]

-- Mat Latos earned 1.5 fWAR last year. Tony Cingrani, in an abbreviated 2013 season, earned 1.3 fWAR.

-- Anthony DeSclafani's FIP (in an extremely small sample of 33 IP) was 3.77. Alfredo Simon's FIP was 4.33.

-- Joey Votto went from 6.1 WAR to 1.1.

-- Jay Bruce, not to be outdone, dropped all the way to -1.1. In 2013, his WAR was 4.0.

-- Red LFers earned -2.7 WAR last season. (To be fair, not all of that was while they played LF.) Marlon Byrd earned 1.9.

-- Homer Bailey went from 3.7 WAR to 1.3 because of injuries.

[RedlegJake]

Add that Zack Cozart has a true competitor to play SS and either Zack bounces back to around .700 or Suarez takes his spot (my bet is the latter), SS will not be the bottomless offensive pit it was last year.

Relievers LeCure and Hoover are not as bad as last season. I fully expect a bounceback for both - middle relievers are notoriously mercurial. Hoover, for instance could go 2-5 in 50 appearances and be 6 wins better than last season!

When you are as bad as Zack and Hoover were it is very hard to repeat - sort of career year in reverse....don't be fooled by one bad year (in the same regard see Bruce, Jay).

There are a whole lot of ifs but many of them are very good bets to improve. For me the four big question marks are Joey's leg, the level of regression for Byrd & BP, Hamilton's evolution, and Cingrani's comeback as a starter. Overall my own feeling is the Reds will pleasantly surprise the pundits in 2015.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Really think Suarez is underrated as an acquisition. If he's league average offensively and defensively next season (not-altogether assumption), you're looking at 3.2+ WAR. That'd be 2.0 WAR more than Cozart. (Not that that's likely to happen. IMO, Cozart's the starter until he's sent packing or proves last season no fluke. If Price does open up the job during Spring Training, Suarez should prove the better hitter by far and would make a nice #8 hitter with a 350 OBP between his own discerning eye and the intentional walks he'll receive in front of the pitcher.

And he's young and controlled for years.

There's a lot to like there.

I'd argue that the four keys to this season will all be centered on health. Bailey, Bruce, and Votto are All-Star/ near All-Star performers that struggled last season. Should all three approach their WAR from 2013, that's 125 extra runs or so for the team to work with. That in itself is enough to move the Reds from 76 to 88 or so wins.

Cingrani's Steamer projection (3.72 ERA in 165-ish IP) pegs him as a league average starter. That's just as good as Bailey did last year as the #3 starter, fwiw, or Bronson Arroyo in 2013. Add in Byrd's likely boost in LF WAR and you're looking at another 3-5 wins.

Now, I don't know if any or all of the Cincinnati stars will return to glory, nor do I know if Cingrani, Byrd, or Suarez will get there. But it's nice to know that the key to contending isn't in someone making a leap they've not done before, but in guys returning to what they've been in the past.

[RedlegJake]

I agree completely about Suarez. Much, much better milb numbers than Zack ever had and at just 22 he came up and held his own with Detroit. My guess is Zack loses his job to Suarez at some point, and likely gets traded either at the deadline or next winter.

[Bourgeois Zee]

In 500 professional ABs last season, Suarez put up the following line: .265/ .338/ .423/ .761.

Were he to do that at the major league level, he'd be around a 115 wRC+. With league average defense and base-running, that's a 3.0 WAR.

Woof.

[RochesterMike]

In 500 professional ABs last season, Suarez put up the following line: .265/ .338/ .423/ .761.

Were he to do that at the major league level, he'd be around a 115 wRC+. With league average defense and base-running, that's a 3.0 WAR.

Woof.

+1

[goreds2]

We will contend.....

http://media2.wcpo.com/photo/2015/01/01/imageedit_135_6955142963_1420131913752_12103311_ve r1.0_640_480.jpg

[JMO]

Hamilton, Votto, Frazier, Mesoraco, Bruce, Byrd, Phillips, Cozart

Saurez, Pena, Negron, Skip, ? (Bourgeois, Lutz, Boesch)

Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, DeSclafani

Chapman, Jumbo, Iglesias, Parra, LeCure, Hoover and Marshall

The Reds CAN CONTEND and CAN WIN. We have a great farm system with talent close to being ready. IF HEALTHY. Reds can win.

[CaptainRon]

Reds have 13 1+ WAR players coming back for 2015. That is the 3rd fewest in baseball.

[Johnny Tango]

The Reds CAN CONTEND and CAN WIN. We have a great farm system with talent close to being ready. IF HEALTHY. Reds can win.

Only the people on Redszone believe we have a great farm system.

[RedlegJake]

Only the people on Redszone believe we have a great farm system.

Funny it was recently ranked 6th best farm system by a non RedsZone writer. I think you have no idea about the farm...

[CaptainRon]

Funny it was recently ranked 6th best farm system by a non RedsZone writer. I think you have no idea about the farm...

3 years ago

[RedlegJake]

3 years ago

No -just this week Ron. You should read more

[CaptainRon]

No -just this week Ron. You should read more

Post the link, I'd be interested to read. Last year they were 16th-22nd depending on the publication.

[Johnny Tango]

No -just this week Ron. You should read more
I would be interested in reading this as well.

The ones I have read are as follows...
#16 -- Baseball Prospectus
#17-- Mike Rosenbaum
#21 -- Jason Catania

[dougdirt]

Post the link, I'd be interested to read. Last year they were 16th-22nd depending on the publication.

Fangraphs.com - It was in a chat by Kiley McDaniel two Friday's ago.

[RedlegJake]

Doug is right but I have to state on re-reading he ranks the Reds 6th of 16 teams he has finished so far. The article states he expects the Reds to end up 8-12. Still, the Reds system is rising quite a bit from its nadir when the Latos trade was made and the upper minors were wiped out by that trade and by promotions. Also, the Reds system is extremely deep in pitching but lacks many projectable hitters after Winker. Pitching they are likely in the top 2 or 3 systems but hitting they reverse that - probably in the bottom 4 or 5.

[marcshoe]

I don't get the absolute pessimism from some quarters, which seems to be based partly on the Reds not making the exact acquisitions that some wanted. Before last season, the Reds were almost universally expected to contend, and the reasons they didn't were very largely injury issues, from Bruce, Votto, and Phillips on through the pitching staff. If the Cardinals were in the same condition, we'd be seeing posts about how they should be the division favorites.

I could go on a rant, but I'll leave it at that.

[mth123]

I don't get the absolute pessimism from some quarters, which seems to be based partly on the Reds not making the exact acquisitions that some wanted. Before last season, the Reds were almost universally expected to contend, and the reasons they didn't were very largely injury issues, from Bruce, Votto, and Phillips on through the pitching staff. If the Cardinals were in the same condition, we'd be seeing posts about how they should be the division favorites.

I could go on a rant, but I'll leave it at that.

I guess I wonder what degree these optimistic/pessimistic stances really are. I'm generally pessimistic, but it's with a point of view towards making the play-offs. I'm fairly optimistic about the team bouncing back into contention. I just think they'll be an 85 win team that watches the play-offs when I want them to be a 90+ win team that enters the season as a favorite to make the post-season. Specifically, I think Votto and Bruce will bounce back and form a formidable middle of the line-up with Mesoraco and Frazier. I think Byrd will improve the LF situation versus the last couple of years to the point where it won't be a weakness. I think Cueto, Bailey and Leake will form a solid foundation of the rotation and that there enough kids to make the rotation good enough if not top of the line like in 2012. I think Chapman will be dominant again and that some combo of Diaz, Iglesias, Cingrani and maybe some guys like Contreras, Hoover and company will throw enough gas to get the ball to him. An addition would be helpful, but I don't think it's an absolute must. (I like Mijares as a potential boon to the pen by Memorial day). I'm fine with Lecure and Parra as the soft underbelly of the pen.

My problem is I think Cozart, Phillips and Hamilton will all represent holes in the line-up. Add the pitcher and that is 4 dead spots in the order. An NL team can really only afford one defense only black hole in the line-up in addition to the pitcher (if they want to be play-off caliber). Based on youth and upside, that spot should be Hamilton in CF. I'm happy they added Suarez, but seems like a slight upgrade to Cozart (and Suarez still won't get to play in front of him) and doesn't really help the production at 2B. The team really needed/needs to add a third guy who could tandem in both spots and would project to be better against RHP. The guys they have are OK against lefty pitching. I don't think there is room for both Cozart and Suarez on the roster IMO. One has to go with that spot going to a lefty bat who could improve the overall production of both MI positions. Whether Suarez or Cozart is the SS, the other guy isn't that guy. Upgrading those two positions is mandatory for the offense to work IMO.

The frustrating thing, for me, is that I didn't really think the Reds needed to make a huge splash along the lines of Upton or Kemp to fix what ails this team. What is really needed is to improve the areas that are really weak. That's a fairly low bar and fairly significant improvement could have been made for fairly cheap without it costing much in talent or money. They didn't do any of that though. Maybe they still will.

[Protoss]

Before last season, the Reds were almost universally expected to contend,
By whom? Where? Within the RedsZone?

Below are three different projections for the 2014 season

Davenport: 79-83
Fangraphs: 76.6-85.4
PECOTA: 83-79

and most people (writers, talking heads, etc.) in baseball didn't consider this club as a contender.

[Old school 1983]

By whom? Where? Within the RedsZone?

Below are three different projections for the 2014 season

Davenport: 79-83
Fangraphs: 76.6-85.4
PECOTA: 83-79

and most people (writers, talking heads, etc.) in baseball didn't consider this club as a contender.

And whats funny about that is those projections were made taking in account a team with normal health. The Reds were decimated by injuries in 2014 yet still played to projection or near projection levels. This begs the question to the accuracy of those projections not only for 2014 but for the upcoming year as well.

[CarolinaRedsfan]

I think we will contend provided we stay healthy. Byrd is an upgrade to whatever was in LF last year and losing Latos and Simon were not big deals to me. Latos, imo, is overrated and I believe the Reds thought so as well. The bullpen could be a weakness but that is such a volatile area that it could actually be a strength. No way Hoover is as bad as he was last year. If things do not work out then they can trade Cueto or whomever at the break. However, I do not see a complete rebuild if that occurs. It would be more like what Oakland does where they just rebuild on the fly.

[Kingspoint]

We still have a Manager who thinks bunting is the best way to score runs.

[CaptainRon]

Reds are 75-1 odds to win the World Series this year. Only five teams with worse odds -- Tampa, Twins, dbacks, Colorado, and Phils.

Yeah...should be a great season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

The debbie downers should re-read the thread title. Nobody comes into a thread named this wanting to read depressing thoughts of the sky is falling.

[CaptainRon]

The debbie downers should re-read the thread title. Nobody comes into a thread named this wanting to read depressing thoughts of the sky is falling.

In the last 19 seasons, every team in baseball has advaced a round in post season play, except for the Reds.

This will be season #20. Pretty pathetic

[Old school 1983]

In the last 19 seasons, every team in baseball has advaced a round in post season play, except for the Reds.

This will be season #20. Pretty pathetic

Well if Vegas says it's over, then it must be over. Mods please shut down the board until the crying begins next offseason.

[RedlegJake]

In the last 19 seasons, every team in baseball has advaced a round in post season play, except for the Reds.

This will be season #20. Pretty pathetic

Then you don't need to watch since you already know the outcome Ron. And be sure and lay big on the team you KNOW will win it all since you have a clear foreknowledge of how it all comes out.

[CarolinaRedsfan]

I do not think anyone picked the Giants to win it all last year nor have them beating the Royals to do it. I get the pessimism but I think this team will be a lot better than expected.

[Protoss]

And whats funny about that is those projections were made taking in account a team with normal health. The Reds were decimated by injuries in 2014 yet still played to projection or near projection levels. This begs the question to the accuracy of those projections not only for 2014 but for the upcoming year as well.
Drawing the metaphor of the early attempts to fly. The man going off of a very high cliff in his airplane, with the wings flapping, and the guys flapping the wings and the wind is in his face, and this poor fool thinks he's flying, but, in fact, he's in free fall, and he just doesn't know it yet because the ground is so far away, but, of course, the craft is doomed to crash. That's the way the Reds are, with the very high cliff representing the infinite possibilities they seemed to have when they began this journey. The craft isn't flying because it's not built according to the laws of aerodynamics and it's subject to the law of gravity. This team is not flying because it's not built according to the laws of aerodynamics for this team that would fly. And, of course, the ground is still a long way away, but some (all the) people have seen that ground rushing up sooner than the rest of you have. The visionaries have seen it and have told us it's coming.


http://www.redreporter.com/2015/2/3/7972647/the-reds-should-sign-james-shields


As has been mentioned before, Friend o' the Blog Dan Szymborski is skeptical of the Reds' chances of keepin' it real over the next few years. Money is tight and talent is thin. If James Shields is as affordable as it looks like he might be, then he could potentially provide the stability necessary to keep this riverboat from rockin' too much. It seems there is a possibility that something like four years and $70 mil could lure him to Cincinnati.

http://i.imgur.com/XHPycmL.jpg


Look, literally everybody, outside of RedsZone, is saying that this team doesn't have enough talent to compete and you are still saying that that's not the case, even arguing that it has talent to win 90 games, which is crazy.

[Old school 1983]

Drawing the metaphor of the early attempts to fly. The man going off of a very high cliff in his airplane, with the wings flapping, and the guys flapping the wings and the wind is in his face, and this poor fool thinks he's flying, but, in fact, he's in free fall, and he just doesn't know it yet because the ground is so far away, but, of course, the craft is doomed to crash. That's the way the Reds are, with the very high cliff representing the infinite possibilities they seemed to have when they began this journey. The craft isn't flying because it's not built according to the laws of aerodynamics and it's subject to the law of gravity. This team is not flying because it's not built according to the laws of aerodynamics for this team that would fly. And, of course, the ground is still a long way away, but some (all the) people have seen that ground rushing up sooner than the rest of you have. The visionaries have seen it and have told us it's coming.


http://www.redreporter.com/2015/2/3/7972647/the-reds-should-sign-james-shields



http://i.imgur.com/XHPycmL.jpg


Look, literally everybody, outside of RedsZone, is saying that this team doesn't have enough talent to compete and you are still saying that that's not the case, even arguing that it has talent to win 90 games, which is crazy.

Where is this team lacking talent in the starting 8? Even the so called holes play gold glove caliber defense at up the middle positions. The staff lost Latos, but some experts, off of Redszone mind you, believe the Reds may have actually gotten a more productive pitcher out of the deal. Cingrani, when healthy, is no slouch either. Help from the farm is foreseeably a half season away. The much maligned bench isn't too shabby either. It was just overexposed last year due to injuries. I think the pen could use some work, but that is generally or of the easiest parts of a team to fix, especially with an anchor like Chapman at the end. All of these guys are predicting the same amount of wins this year as last years injury filled team posted.

Nice analogy to thinking you're flying, when you're really falling, but right now, I see the Reds as gliding. They could go into your fall through injuries or not being able to come back from them. At the same time they could come back strong and prove the forecasters wrong. I'm not punching the table screaming that this team is a for sure lock for 90 wins. I'm saying that the 75 to 76 win predictions are on the extremely pessimistic end of the spectrum and guys already assuming defeat need to look at the other side, which IMO has just as good as a possibility of happening.

[SweetLou1990]

A few key items to get to 90 wins:

Play lights out when Johny Beisbol is pitching.
Play .500 ball the rest of the time
Will have improvement (hopefully) at LF 1b, SS, and CF. I think it's reasonable to expect thru improvement from experience, competition and returns from injury.
Homer's return should help.

Reasons to lose 85 games: total lack of pitching

[Old school 1983]

A few key items to get to 90 wins:

Play lights out when Johny Beisbol is pitching.
Play .500 ball the rest of the time
Will have improvement (hopefully) at LF 1b, SS, and CF. I think it's reasonable to expect thru improvement from experience, competition and returns from injury.
Homer's return should help.

Reasons to lose 85 games: total lack of pitching
I'm far more concerned either the teams pitching than the offense unlike most here. The two big ifs are the Tonys. If they come through, I'm looking forward to an exciting summer if everyone else plays to their ability. If they struggle and we see the Holmbergs, Marquis and Maholms of the world getting multiple starts then it could get rough. Let's hope the Tonys pitch well and or one or more of the top prospects busts down the door to a big league job and does it well

[Protoss]

Where is this team lacking talent in the starting 8?
I think that's transparently obvious. The OBP department, isn't it?

The following are Steamer projections for the 2015 Reds.

Votto: .409
Mesoraco: .318
Frazier: .317
Bruce: .313
Phillips: .306
Hamilton: .297
Byrd: .294
Cozart: .282

That's a lot of outs in the lineup and a lot of potential out machines, and there is not a single player among them, except for Votto, about whom you can say that if he's healthy, he's a lock for a .330 OBP, which is not a terribly high bar.

It is pretty clear that this team just doesn't have enough OBP to score runs and to compete in the division. They were 29th in OBP last year, 29th.

[Old school 1983]

I think that's transparently obvious. The OBP department, isn't it?

The following are Steamer projections for the 2015 Reds.

Votto: .409
Mesoraco: .318
Frazier: .317
Bruce: .313
Phillips: .306
Hamilton: .297
Byrd: .294
Cozart: .282

That's a lot of outs in the lineup and a lot of potential out machines, and there is not a single player among them, except for Votto, about whom you can say that if he's healthy, he's a lock for a .330 OBP, which is not a terribly high bar.

It is pretty clear that this team just doesn't have enough OBP to score runs and to compete in the division. They were 29th in OBP last year, 29th.

Id like to not make this an argument about projection systems because that would rapidly turn into a pissing match, but runs are achieved in more ways than obp. There is slugging too. Taking this into consideration, and looking at the teams OPS at several positions, the outlook may not be as bleak.

Votto is a lock for at least an 850 if not higher ops. Id argue 900+ but I'm trying to be conservative
Bruce if healthy, and back to form, is a lock for around an 800 ops
Frazier will likely be between 740-800
Mes will be likely in the 775 to 800+ if not better range.
Byrd has been 750+ for the past two seasons. Arguably he could do that again.

That leaves you with Cozart, Phillips and Hamilton. All of which play gold glove caliber defense in up the middle positions. Cozart has a viable replacement in Suarez if his bat doesn't rebound. Phillips is a solid veteran presence that can go on streaks were he is a solid offensive contributor. Hamilton offers game changing speed when he does reach base.

Honestly, if they manage a normal level of health, I think the offense will be solid. Sure they were 29th in OBP last year, but that was sans Votto, and a normal Bruce, and nothing in LF. Don't act like the offense last year as anywhere near a complete and representative expression of the normal starters engaging in their normal performances. It's pretty obvious that there will be holes when you're replacing Votto Bruce and now Bryfs spots with Pena Shumaker and Heisey. If the offense was under normal circumstances last year and finished 29th, Id be far more concerned about it.

To me, it's the pitching staff that is the key. If the Tonys step up, then the starting staff will be solid. If not, we will be left with AAAA garbage until one of the better prospects is ready.

[Protoss]

First, the idea that the team can make up for the lack of OBP with the SLG is simply not a good one.
Second, I’m afraid you can’t make up for this level of OBP deficiency with the SLG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single? In short, no) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8). In short, OPS is asking the right question, but we can arrive at a more accurate number quite easily.


The 2012 Reds offense had 22 more doubles, 10 more triples, 17 more home runs, 100 more TB, 2 more ROE, 20 more SB, 8 less CS, 29 less GDP, a 2 points higher BA and a 20 points higher SLG than the 2013 Reds offense. But the 2012 Reds (9th in Runs) scored 29 less runs than the 2013 Reds (3rd in Runs), even with more favorable run-scoring environment for them than for the 2013 team and the manager of the 2013 team not making the best use of Choo by letting the one of the worst hitter in baseball hit behind him. Why? The 2012 Reds had a 12 points lower OBP than the 2013 Reds.

- LEAGUE AVERAGES -
2012 NL: 683 Runs, .254/.318/.400/.718
2013 NL: 649 Runs, .251/.315/.388/.703

- The two-hole for the Reds (2013) -
.228/.281/.350/.632 (30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 26th in SLG)


For your information, the following are OBPs (Min 300 PA) for the 2012 Reds.

Votto: .474
Hanigan: .365
Ludwick: .346
Frazier: .331
Bruce: .327
Phillips: .321
Rolen: .318
Heisey: .315
Cozart: .288
Stubbs: .277

and the 2012 Reds offense faced the crappy pitching in Brewers, Cubs and Astros many times during the season.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)

[Old school 1983]

First, the idea that the team can make up for the lack of OBP with the SLG is simply not a good one.
Second, I’m afraid you can’t make up for this level of OBP deficiency with the SLG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/



The 2012 Reds offense had 22 more doubles, 10 more triples, 17 more home runs, 100 more TB, 2 more ROE, 20 more SB, 8 less CS, 29 less GDP, a 2 points higher BA and a 20 points higher SLG than the 2013 Reds offense. But the 2012 Reds (9th in Runs) scored 29 less runs than the 2013 Reds (3rd in Runs), even with more favorable run-scoring environment for them than for the 2013 team and the manager of the 2013 team not making the best use of Choo by letting the one of the worst hitter in baseball hit behind him. Why? The 2012 Reds had a 12 points lower OBP than the 2013 Reds.

- LEAGUE AVERAGES -
2012 NL: 683 Runs, .254/.318/.400/.718
2013 NL: 649 Runs, .251/.315/.388/.703

- The two-hole for the Reds (2013) -
.228/.281/.350/.632 (30th in AVG, 30th in OBP, 26th in SLG)


For your information, the following are OBPs (Min 300 PA) for the 2012 Reds.

Votto: .474
Hanigan: .365
Ludwick: .346
Frazier: .331
Bruce: .327
Phillips: .321
Rolen: .318
Heisey: .315
Cozart: .288
Stubbs: .277

and the 2012 Reds offense faced the crappy pitching in Brewers, Cubs and Astros many times during the season.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)

Wouldn't the fact that the 2013 team having a higher OBP yet winning less games than 2012 be evidence that OBP isn't the only determining factor in winning?

I get that the Reds OBP isn't likely to be earth shattering but, that's not looking at the whole picture. Other factors go into winning games.

Aside from the three gold glove caliber guys manning defense first up the middle positions, the Reds have potentially plus offensive players at every position. Of the three that aren't, if Cozart bounces back to his norm, he'll be very acceptable for his position. If not Suarez fills the void. Phillips has the ability to make his offense a push considering his position. Hamilton is a dynamic force on the bases. While obp is important, power and speed on the bases also factor into winning.

So does great defense and pitching. With the staff in a bit of a flux, the Reds will need the defense the three guys that get hounded the most will offer. I'm still worried more about the pitching than I am the offense.

[Protoss]

Wouldn't the fact that the 2013 team having a higher OBP yet winning less games than 2012 be evidence that OBP isn't the only determining factor in winning?
I’m sorry but I just can’t understand your logic. The 2013 Reds scored 29 more runs than the 2012 team with a high OBP despite those several points mentioned above.

2012: 669 Runs (14 Runs below league average)
2013: 698 Runs (49 Runs above league average)

2012: 669 RS, 588 RA (+81)
2013: 698 RS, 589 RA (+109)

Is the good fortune a determining factor you say?

[Old school 1983]

I’m sorry but I just can’t understand your logic. The 2013 Reds scored 29 more runs than the 2012 team with a high OBP despite those several points mentioned above.

2012: 669 Runs (14 Runs below league average)
2013: 698 Runs (49 Runs above league average)

2012: 669 RS, 588 RA (+81)
2013: 698 RS, 589 RA (+109)

Is the good fortune a determining factor you say?

Maybe it's not all luck or randomness. Perhaps team and lineup makeup have to do with it too. Im not saying that OBP isn't important. I'm saying, other factors are too and determining how good a team is needs to include more than turning projrctions into a math problem only using one stat when it's clear other factors go into determining offensive production. Also I think steamer is under projecting both obp and other factors for the Reds next season. If the pitching and health of the offense holds up, I think this team will stand a good chance to turn those projections on their heads.

[Protoss]

Maybe it's not all luck or randomness. Perhaps team and lineup makeup have to do with it too.
The 2012 Reds won 97 games,

1.With a below league-average offense against these pitching staffs.

- Team ERA (2012) -
Cardinals (6th), Pirates (8th), Brewers (13th), Cubs (14th), Astros (15th)

- Team ERA (2013) -
Pirates (3rd), Cardinals (5th), Brewers (9th), Cubs (12th)


2. With a rotation that saw five guys all notch at least 30 starts each (only 7 starting rotations in history had done this before).

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2012/09/29/rotation-having-special-year/

When Mike Leake makes his start tonight, he will be the fifth Reds starter this season to reach the 30 starts plateau in a single season.

Only seven pitching staffs in Major League history produced five pitchers with at least 30 starts each:

1977 Dodgers, 1980 A’s, 1993 Dodgers, 2003 Mariners (coached by Bryan Price), 2005 Cardinals, 2005 Indians and 2006 White Sox.

*On Friday night, Homer Bailey became the third Reds starter after Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos to reach 200 innings this season. Bronson Arroyo is at 197 innings and starting on Monday and should reach 200.

“This staff – unless they shut some people down, they’ll have four guys throw 200 innings,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said. “To me that’s an incredible achievement In this day. I don’t know the last time that’s happened, but that fact grabs you.”

*The last MLB team to have four starters pitch 200 innings was 2006 White Sox: Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez. The last Reds team to have four guys at 200 or more innings was 1943: Elmer Riddle, Ray Starr, Johnny Vander Meer and Bucky Walters.


3. In a weakest division in baseball at that time.

- WPCT -
29. Cubs 61-101 (.377)
30. Astros 55-107 (.340)


4. With a worse defense than the 2013 team

2012: 0.712 DE (12th in MLB), 1.18 PADE (11th in MLB)
2013: 0.727 DE (1st in MLB), 2.57 PADE (2nd in MLB)


Im not saying that OBP isn't important. I'm saying, other factors are too and determining how good a team is needs to include more than turning projrctions into a math problem only using one stat when it's clear other factors go into determining offensive production. Also I think steamer is under projecting both obp and other factors for the Reds next season. If the pitching and health of the offense holds up, I think this team will stand a good chance to turn those projections on their heads.
You keep mentioning SLG and other factors. Okay, here are the PECOTA's projections which are the most favorable one to the Reds among many projections.

- SLG -
Brewers: .400
Cardinals: .396
Pirates: .394
Cubs: .392
Reds: .379

Only Braves, Phillies and Giants are worse in NL.

The reason that I emphasize the OBP is because this is the most basic and important thing for every team to score runs and this is what the Reds need the most among many things. Even Jocketty himself said at the end of last season that "the Reds need a different approach, have to stress OBP more" and then he traded for Byrd.

[Old school 1983]

Let's just see how it actually turns out. If the offense has normal health, I'm saying the projections about the offense will look off at the end of the day. If the Tonys hold up on the staff and everyone else has relatively normal health and pitches to the back of their baseball card, I'm looking for he doom and gloom predictions to look off by the seasons end. I'm looking at a team that can finish in the mid 80s in wins. Sure they could go into the 70s if everything goes wrong like the doom and gloomerd think it will. My basic point is that if some things go right the Reds can win 90. Also aside from CF SS and 2b, every other position, if they are healthy and play to their ability, has an above average OPS. And the three spots I mentioned all play gold glove defense to bolster the pitching staff, offers world class speed in Hamilton, the ability to step it up to above average levels in spurts in Phillps, and a viable replacement in Cozart. The projections are looking at, what is, IMO, a worst case scenario. That played out in 2014. I doubt we'll be that snake bitten two years straight.

[BigRedMachine13]

I actually think we may surprise some people this season. Now I am not going to predict a World Series or anything, but I think we will do quite a bit better than expected.

[Protoss]

Nice article on the projection systems.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-systems/

Actual 0.0000
ZIPS 0.0274
Steamer 0.0277
PECOTA 0.0279
Oliver 0.0280
Marcel 0.0289


The projection systems all did pretty well and, as usual, are relatively close together. ZiPS takes home the crown with the lowest mean absolute error. While Marcel comes in last, the result demonstrates Marcel’s original intended purpose; it shows us that a simple projection system will get us most of the way there in the aggregate.

[kramer1]

The Bengals start in 7 months! Oh...wait....nm

The 2015 Reds are a .500 team at absolute best, unfortunately.

[Protoss]

That's a lot of outs in the lineup and a lot of potential out machines, and there is not a single player among them, except for Votto, about whom you can say that if he's healthy, he's a lock for a .330 OBP, which is not a terribly high bar.

It is pretty clear that this team just doesn't have enough OBP to score runs and to compete in the division. They were 29th in OBP last year, 29th.

Schoenfield seconds my point on the Reds offense.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54986/ranking-the-teams-24-through-19-2

The final word: The Reds have two major issues: rotation depth and getting on base. Only the two biggest keys to winning baseball games. Outside of Votto, nobody on this team draws many walks; the Reds were 13th in the NL in walks and 14th in on-base percentage. Certainly, getting 150 games from Votto will help but they still have too many low-OBP guys such as Hamilton, Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart to run out a consistent offense. If Mesoraco and Frazier decline, the offense will still be one of the worst in the league.

If the Reds intend to seriously compete even for a Wild Card spot, they need, at the very least, a .370~.380 OBP guy who can make up for the disastrous OBP generated by Hamilton, Phillips, Cozart and the like. You can easily understand this if you remember the fact that among the starters of the 2013 season, no player had an OBP of .330 or above, except for Votto and Choo.



# Name G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
1 Joey Votto 162 726 24 101 73 6 18.6 % 19.0 % .186 .360 .305 .435 .491 .400 156
2 Shin-Soo Choo 154 712 21 107 54 20 15.7 % 18.7 % .178 .338 .285 .423 .462 .393 151
3 Xavier Paul 97 239 7 24 32 0 11.3 % 22.2 % .158 .295 .244 .339 .402 .327 105
4 Jay Bruce 160 697 30 89 109 7 9.0 % 26.5 % .216 .322 .262 .329 .478 .344 117
5 Derrick Robinson 102 216 0 21 8 4 8.3 % 20.4 % .068 .331 .255 .322 .323 .292 81
6 Jack Hannahan 83 162 1 12 14 0 11.7 % 23.5 % .072 .287 .216 .317 .288 .277 71
7 Todd Frazier 150 600 19 63 73 6 8.3 % 20.8 % .173 .269 .234 .314 .407 .319 100
8 Brandon Phillips 151 666 18 80 103 5 5.9 % 14.7 % .135 .281 .261 .310 .396 .307 91
9 Ryan Hanigan 75 260 2 17 21 0 11.2 % 10.4 % .063 .216 .198 .306 .261 .252 53
10 Ryan Ludwick 38 140 2 7 12 0 7.1 % 20.7 % .085 .293 .240 .293 .326 .277 71
11 Devin Mesoraco 103 352 9 31 42 0 6.8 % 17.3 % .124 .264 .238 .287 .362 .282 74
12 Zack Cozart 151 618 12 74 63 0 4.2 % 16.5 % .127 .285 .254 .284 .381 .289 79
13 Chris Heisey 87 244 9 29 23 3 3.7 % 20.9 % .179 .265 .237 .279 .415 .303 89
14 Cesar Izturis 63 142 0 6 11 0 6.3 % 9.2 % .062 .231 .209 .259 .271 .233 40



Again, the Reds desperately need a high OBP guy who can play a role of 2013 Choo.

[NebraskaRed]

The Bengals start in 7 months! Oh...wait....nm

The 2015 Reds are a .500 team at absolute best, unfortunately.

Should they go ahead and play the games anyway? You know, for the kids.

[kramer1]

Should they go ahead and play the games anyway? You know, for the kids.

Oh, I guess.

Don't forget "Bark in the Park" nights.

[Fargo Red]

Don't forget "Bark in the Park" nights.

Kids AND puppies? Man, it doesn't get much better than that!