Contenders or Pretenders?

[Protoss]

Here are fangraphs projections for 2015.
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-C

And these are Clay Davenport's Projections.
http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

What are your thoughts on this matter? Should we trade Cueto right now?

[dougdirt]

They could be both. This team has the talent to win 90 games. This team also has a chance to win 75 games. They need health and they need Votto and Bruce to put up the rate stats they did in 2013. Without health or Votto/Bruce circa 2013, they aren't going to compete. But if Bruce and Votto play like Bruce and Votto, and the rest of the team stays mostly healthy, they can win a whole bunch of games.

[Protoss]

They could be both. This team has the talent to win 90 games. This team also has a chance to win 75 games. They need health and they need Votto and Bruce to put up the rate stats they did in 2013. Without health or Votto/Bruce circa 2013, they aren't going to compete. But if Bruce and Votto play like Bruce and Votto, and the rest of the team stays mostly healthy, they can win a whole bunch of games.
I think you have really, really optimistic view of this team.
They won 90 games in 2013 with Choo in the leadoff spot, healthy Votto and healthy Bruce and a more stable rotation.
There is no way they are a 90 win talent team at present, probably a 80 win talent team at best.

[dougdirt]

I think you have really, really optimistic view of this team.
They won 90 games in 2013 with Choo in the leadoff spot, healthy Votto and healthy Bruce and a more stable rotation.
There is no way they are a 90 win talent team at present, probably a 80 win talent team at best.

The 2013 team had Choo. The 2013 team didn't have Frazier or Mesoraco performing anything like they did in 2014. 2014 Mesoraco and Frazier > 2013 Choo (as a whole - Choo was better as an individual player than both).

There are a lot of "ifs" with the 2015 Reds, but if the guys play to their abilities, they can win a whole bunch of games. Let's take an "at best" look at the key players on offense over the last two years:

Votto: .310/.425/.490
Bruce: .270/.330/.475
Mesoraco: .270/.360/.525
Frazier: .270/.330/.460
Byrd: .270/.315/.460

That's five legit bats. If they show up, this team is going to score enough runs.

How about the pitching?

Cueto: 220ip, 2.75 ERA
Bailey: 200ip, 3.40 ERA
Leake: 200ip, 3.70 ERA
Cingrani: 175ip, 3.50 ERA
DeSclafani: 175ip, 3.75 ERA

The odds that all of those guys stay that healthy aren't good. But it's not like the Reds don't have other options to fall back on either. Whether that is Iglesias, Stephenson, Moscot, Lorenzen.... there are legit options to go to, especially if those five starters above come out and make it through the first month healthy to give the younger guys a little AAA seasoning.

To sit back and say it's an 80 win team, talent wise at best, is not looking at the actual talent on the team.

[Johnny Tango]

C'mon man. You can, with a straight face, say it is possible that Cingrani and DeSclafani can approach those numbers? I realize that we are discussing best case scenario, but. COME ON. Damn, why don't you put best case scenario,
Cueto: 220, 1.68 ERA
Bailey: 200, 2.75 ERA
Leake: 200, 3.20 ERA

as well.

Sure, if both pitching and hitting have career years. if everyone is healthy for the entire season, then the Reds can win 105 games. But, come on now. The hitters, two of them are coming off injury marred years, Mesoraco may or may not be legit (prove it to me again), Frazier, I can see that. Byrd... sure, why not...but your assessment of the 4 and 5 starters and what their "best" may be... and sort of count on it... LAUGHABLE.

[JMO]

The 2013 team had Choo. The 2013 team didn't have Frazier or Mesoraco performing anything like they did in 2014. 2014 Mesoraco and Frazier > 2013 Choo (as a whole - Choo was better as an individual player than both).

There are a lot of "ifs" with the 2015 Reds, but if the guys play to their abilities, they can win a whole bunch of games. Let's take an "at best" look at the key players on offense over the last two years:

Votto: .310/.425/.490
Bruce: .270/.330/.475
Mesoraco: .270/.360/.525
Frazier: .270/.330/.460
Byrd: .270/.315/.460

That's five legit bats. If they show up, this team is going to score enough runs.

How about the pitching?

Cueto: 220ip, 2.75 ERA
Bailey: 200ip, 3.40 ERA
Leake: 200ip, 3.70 ERA
Cingrani: 175ip, 3.50 ERA
DeSclafani: 175ip, 3.75 ERA

The odds that all of those guys stay that healthy aren't good. But it's not like the Reds don't have other options to fall back on either. Whether that is Iglesias, Stephenson, Moscot, Lorenzen.... there are legit options to go to, especially if those five starters above come out and make it through the first month healthy to give the younger guys a little AAA seasoning.

To sit back and say it's an 80 win team, talent wise at best, is not looking at the actual talent on the team.


I agree with this assessment, the Reds absolutely have talent. HEALTH IS THE KEY. Trading Cueto is def a hard call, Reds could use a youth infusion. What type of package of prospects could the Reds receive for Cueto if he's traded before the season starts? 3 best case scenarios for me.

1. Cueto to the Yankees for Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez and Jacob Lindgren. Sanchez would be an excellent chip to have, Mesoraco insurance. Severino IMO is a TOR SP and Lindgren could be an elite LH RP in the Reds BP in 2015.

2. Cueto to the Dodgers for Corey Seager and Julio Urias. Upside, upside, upside.

3. Cueto to the Red Sox for Henry Owens and Mookie Betts. This deal would be great for the Reds.

[Old school 1983]

C'mon man. You can, with a straight face, say it is possible that Cingrani and DeSclafani can approach those numbers? I realize that we are discussing best case scenario, but. COME ON. Damn, why don't you put best case scenario,
Cueto: 220, 1.68 ERA
Bailey: 200, 2.75 ERA
Leake: 200, 3.20 ERA

as well.

Sure, if both pitching and hitting have career years. if everyone is healthy for the entire season, then the Reds can win 105 games. But, come on now. The hitters, two of them are coming off injury marred years, Mesoraco may or may not be legit (prove it to me again), Frazier, I can see that. Byrd... sure, why not...but your assessment of the 4 and 5 starters and what their "best" may be... and sort of count on it... LAUGHABLE.

Cingrani has a 100+ inning pitched season with a sub 3 era. Desclfani had an FIPof 3.77 in a small sample with the fish last years. The Reds defense is among the best and could easily improve his mark. I'm not saying it'll happen, but it's not as laughable as you make it sound. Is actually be more worried about the number of innings from those guys more than the quality of them. The Reds have some fine arms in the pipeline too. I'm more concerned about the pitching than the hitting to be honest, but those projections weren't as laughable as you make them seem.

[SweetLou1990]

Yeah, I like those #s. Point taken. You're saying the Reds should be the favorite to win the Series, right?

[Protoss]

The 2013 team had Choo. The 2013 team didn't have Frazier or Mesoraco performing anything like they did in 2014. 2014 Mesoraco and Frazier > 2013 Choo (as a whole - Choo was better as an individual player than both).

There are a lot of "ifs" with the 2015 Reds, but if the guys play to their abilities, they can win a whole bunch of games. Let's take an "at best" look at the key players on offense over the last two years:

Votto: .310/.425/.490
Bruce: .270/.330/.475
Mesoraco: .270/.360/.525
Frazier: .270/.330/.460
Byrd: .270/.315/.460

That's five legit bats. If they show up, this team is going to score enough runs.

How about the pitching?

Cueto: 220ip, 2.75 ERA
Bailey: 200ip, 3.40 ERA
Leake: 200ip, 3.70 ERA
Cingrani: 175ip, 3.50 ERA
DeSclafani: 175ip, 3.75 ERA

The odds that all of those guys stay that healthy aren't good. But it's not like the Reds don't have other options to fall back on either. Whether that is Iglesias, Stephenson, Moscot, Lorenzen.... there are legit options to go to, especially if those five starters above come out and make it through the first month healthy to give the younger guys a little AAA seasoning.

To sit back and say it's an 80 win team, talent wise at best, is not looking at the actual talent on the team.
I'm sorry but I have to say that your numbers don't make any sense. For instance, what are the chances of Mesoraco OPSing .885 this year? I think most people would expect his OPS to drop about 100 points. Furthermore, comparing two players with one player also doesn't make sense. Even if it does make sense, those two players still don't make up for that one player's OBP.

Did you see the 2015 PECOTA projections?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/.

[Old school 1983]

Yeah, I like those #s. Point taken. You're saying the Reds should be the favorite to win the Series, right?

If that was to my comment, no I dont expect the Reds to be a preseason favorite for the series. I just don't think the Reds situation is as dire as people make it out to be.

[Protoss]

If that was to my comment, no I dont expect the Reds to be a preseason favorite for the series. I just don't think the Reds situation is as dire as people make it out to be.
I have seen 4 different projections for the 2015 season so far this year and they all agree on this team being the worst team in the NL Central, let alone contenders. Is it a perfect coincidence? I don't know. All I know is that that's certainly not good.

[RedlegJake]

I have seen 4 different projections for the 2015 season so far this year and they all agree on this team being the worst team in the NL Central, let alone contenders. Is it a perfect coincidence? I don't know. All I know is that that's certainly not good.

Writers projections mean nothing, N-O-T-H-I-N-G. Even moreso in a division that is so tight and competitive. Any year that a team's record takes a dive, the next season writers cross them off. Writers are usually pessimistic and why not? Pessimists will be right in baseball more often than optimists because baseball is more failure than success. I agree with Doug - the talent is here to win 90 games IF they are healthy, IF a couple young pitchers step up, IF no one else regresses badly. I don't blame writers for that position (last in division) but their take assumes nothing goes right as much as the 90 win crowd assumes nothing goes wrong. Trying to rein in my own optimism (I am an optimist and know I am sometimes way too hopeful) - I think enough goes right the Reds are in it, but most likely will come up short, say 84-86 wins. I don't think anyone runs away with the Central.

[Protoss]

Writers projections mean nothing, N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
Sorry but, I stopped reading after the first sentence.

[RedlegJake]

Sorry but, I stopped reading after the first sentence.

LOL. Touche

[DanielPlainview]

The Pretenders. And it's not really close for me. Certainly up until Learning To Crawl anyway. But to be fair I'm not really familiar with The Contenders. They must not get much play on Tom Petty's Buried Treasure which is about all I listen to.

[Old school 1983]

I have seen 4 different projections for the 2015 season so far this year and they all agree on this team being the worst team in the NL Central, let alone contenders. Is it a perfect coincidence? I don't know. All I know is that that's certainly not good.

I think those projections simply take last years record into account and then go well they lost Simon and Latos and added an aging Byrd. They don't account for the return of injured all star to mvp caliber players, or that Cingrani could match either Simon or Latos or that DeSclafani isn't a slouch. The Reds also have young pitching close. There is a lot of talent on this team and that is being ignored. A lot would have to go right to win 90+, but for some of the projections to come true, everything would have to go wrong.

[mth123]

Depends on your definition I suppose. Contenders in the sense that if enough goes right, they can probably win 85 games and be in the mix into September. Pretenders in the sense that not only would a lot have to go right, but other teams would have to have some stuff go wrong for them to actually make the post-season. I guess just about any team could be contenders if everything goes right and enough other teams have stuff go wrong. Since I don't believe in punting the season before it even begins, I'd wait until July to decide and try to win out of Spring Training even if it's with a limited budget and some question marks going in. The team has enough stuff in the upper minors now that most of their problems could resolve themselves from within. I'm not happy with a plan like that, but still prefer it to giving up on the season now.

[Kc61]

I think those projections simply take last years record into account and then go well they lost Simon and Latos and added an aging Byrd. They don't account for the return of injured all star to mvp caliber players, or that Cingrani could match either Simon or Latos or that DeSclafani isn't a slouch. The Reds also have young pitching close. There is a lot of talent on this team and that is being ignored. A lot would have to go right to win 90+, but for some of the projections to come true, everything would have to go wrong.

How many above average players do the Reds have who are NOT coming back from a sub-par year or an injury?

I count 5. Arguably 6, tops.

The number of people coming back from injury or a bad year is very high on this club. I think this is a negative, increases downside risk.

[JoshBresser]

I would say that the Reds have a legit shot at the Wild Card if they can stay healthy.

But, there's the problem. The Reds' lineup is rather injury prone, and our bench is one of the worst that I've ever seen. That isn't a good combo.

Can Suarez fake it if BP goes down? Maybe. But, if Byrd/Bruce get hurt....Skip Schumaker is a starter.

It's a shame. Walt had a good chance to bolster the bench this year to build on our solid starting core. But, instead, we've decided to be one of 2 teams to not sign a Major League Free Agent this offseason.

I'm projecting them around 84 or 85 wins. In this division, I'm not sure that cuts it for a WC.

[RedlegJake]

I would say that the Reds have a legit shot at the Wild Card if they can stay healthy.

But, there's the problem. The Reds' lineup is rather injury prone, and our bench is one of the worst that I've ever seen. That isn't a good combo.

Can Suarez fake it if BP goes down? Maybe. But, if Byrd/Bruce get hurt....Skip Schumaker is a starter.

It's a shame. Walt had a good chance to bolster the bench this year to build on our solid starting core. But, instead, we've decided to be one of 2 teams to not sign a Major League Free Agent this offseason.

I'm projecting them around 84 or 85 wins. In this division, I'm not sure that cuts it for a WC.

I'm a lot higher on SUarez than you are but all in all come to the same conclusion. 84-85 wins, in it til the end but falling short.

[JoshBresser]

I'm a lot higher on SUarez than you are but all in all come to the same conclusion. 84-85 wins, in it til the end but falling short.

The problem is that I don't even know if Suarez will get the shot. If Phillips goes down, I have a nasty feeling we'll be seeing a LOT of Skip and Negron.

[kramer1]

I think we'll be contending for 4th place in the division.

[JoshBresser]

I think we'll be contending for 4th place in the division.

Probably. Can't see the Cubs, Cardinals, or Pirates realistically being worse.

[ram]

Hate to say it, but pretenders. No better than 77-85

[Assembly Hall]

Some of you guys crack me up. Don't believe what the media says, they are like "weathermen". Wrong, more often than not. This team is fine, to make a projection on how this season will be is not my job, nor my expertise. I will leave the speculating up to the "experts".

[Billy Budd]

The most interesting things that will come from the 2015 season.
1. Can the Reds trade Cueto for Major League ready bats?
2. Can Votto stay healthy AND be anything more than an elite walker? Or is he now just a 25 double 15 homerun man?
3. Can Jay Bruce be healthy and productive?
4. Will at least three of the starters in the Reds staff pitch 175+ innings?
5. What is the over/under for throwing in the towel? July 31 when they should trade Cueto? Or will they hold on to Cueto and try to deal him in August?