Who will hit third for the Cincinnati Reds?

[JoshBresser]

Tonight's lineup:

1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Joey Votto (L) 1B
3. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
4. Devin Mesoraco (R) C
5. Jay Bruce (L) RF
6. Zack Cozart (R) SS
7. Skip Schumaker (L) LF
8. Irving Falu (S) 3B
9. Anthony DeSclafani (R) P

This got me thinking...it seems like Brandon Phillips has hit third basically no matter what this Spring. Will this be a trend that carries over to the regular season?

If so, all I can say is wow. Guy is our second worst offensive player. He should be slotted accordingly.

There's no logical basis to having Phillips hit in the 3 hole over Votto/Frazier/Mesoraco/Bruce. Hell, even Marlon Byrd would be better.

What gives? Is this all a red herring, or is Price just that dumb?

[RedlegJake]

Phillips seems to carry a perceived value as a hitter that is way inflated. Baker did it, Price is continuing it.

[JoshBresser]

Phillips seems to carry a perceived value as a hitter that is way inflated. Baker did it, Price is continuing it.

Sigh.... Dusty Jr.

[Old school 1983]

Tonight's lineup:

1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Joey Votto (L) 1B
3. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
4. Devin Mesoraco (R) C
5. Jay Bruce (L) RF
6. Zack Cozart (R) SS
7. Skip Schumaker (L) LF
8. Irving Falu (S) 3B
9. Anthony DeSclafani (R) P

This got me thinking...it seems like Brandon Phillips has hit third basically no matter what this Spring. Will this be a trend that carries over to the regular season?

If so, all I can say is wow. Guy is our second worst offensive player. He should be slotted accordingly.

There's no logical basis to having Phillips hit in the 3 hole over Votto/Frazier/Mesoraco/Bruce. Hell, even Marlon Byrd would be better.

What gives? Is this all a red herring, or is Price just that dumb?

With the lineup missing Frazier I can see why Phillips is hitting third. Normally Id hope frazier hits 2 Votto 3 and Phillips shifts to a lower spot

[JoshBresser]

With the lineup missing Frazier I can see why Phillips is hitting third. Normally Id hope frazier hits 2 Votto 3 and Phillips shifts to a lower spot

Yeah, but even with Frazier in the lineup, BP has hit third.

I know there hasn't been a full lineup yet, but Frazier/Mesoraco/Bruce/Byrd have all moved around. The only constants have really been Votto and BP 2/3.

[JoshBresser]

In the Reds' first game of the Spring- the closest we've come to a full lineup (even sans Votto)- Phillips hit 2nd. That signals to me that Votto is Price's "number two" guy, meaning that BP defaults to third.

I just can't see anyone thinking this is a good idea. Apart from Phillips not being good anymore, Votto is on base almost half of the time. He's also slow. Now pair that with GIDP machine Phillips behind him...ugh.

[Don Larkin]

To me, Votto should hit second and Phillips hits third.
It makes sense.

In a perfect world Votto would hit third, since he is the best hitter on the team, but
1. Votto gets on base, and makes every effort to get on base.
2. Phillips is not adverse to knocking in runs, does what needs to be done, and is almost as an unselfish batter as Barry Larkin.
3. Frazier takes too many at bats off, or is over matched.
4. Mes will only be playing approx 140 games, and all things considered I want my third hitter in there for consistency reasons.
5. Bruce.... who knows what one is getting from him.
6. Byrd.... same thing.... I hope he can replicate what he did last year, but the jury is out.

So for better or worse, Phillips is your third hitter, by process of elimination.

[Don Larkin]

I think Brandon can still play. I think he has great hands and is always smiling. Votto is a nice player and can really play too. But I think the reds will do good no matter those boys hit.

Perhaps. I also think Brandon has a little but left in the tank. I am not sure how much, but he looks like he has trimmed down a little. Maybe, just maybe, Brandon has one or two more good years left in him. Brandon just needs to stay healthy. But. I agree he has the best hands in baseball.

Joey Votto is starting to get his power going. He really hit one well against the Giants, and he did not take any pitches when he hit it. Maybe it is a sign to come that his aggressiveness is back. The Reds could sure you his extra base hits and his on base percentage. If he can stay healthy he will be Votto the Great!

[Red X]

I have been out here in Goodyear for 2 weeks now and i can tell you that only 3 things have been the same the entire time when it comes to the line-up.

1. Every time Hamilton is playing he is leading off.

2. Every time Votto is playing he is batting 2nd.

3. Every time Phillips is in the line-up he is batting 3rd.

Everyone else have jumped around. I have seen Frazier and Meso hit every where from 2nd (Frazier) to 6th. Point is based during my 11 (12 on thurs) games this ST 1 2 and 3 are locked and Price has no idea how he wants to use the rest of the team in the line-up.

So if you asking who is batting 3rd on opening day i would be willing to bet a LOT of money its Phillips based on the Spring.

[JoshBresser]

I have been out here in Goodyear for 2 weeks now and i can tell you that only 3 things have been the same the entire time when it comes to the line-up.

1. Every time Hamilton is playing he is leading off.

2. Every time Votto is playing he is batting 2nd.

3. Every time Phillips is in the line-up he is batting 3rd.

Everyone else have jumped around. I have seen Frazier and Meso hit every where from 2nd (Frazier) to 6th. Point is based during my 11 (12 on thurs) games this ST 1 2 and 3 are locked and Price has no idea how he wants to use the rest of the team in the line-up.

So if you asking who is batting 3rd on opening day i would be willing to bet a LOT of money its Phillips based on the Spring.

Sigh.

[SuperFan17]

Phillips is a professional hitter, that, like the interview post elsewhere will GET IT DONE. He is flexible for what is asked of him. He has gained the trust of his manager to get the job done--if my job is on the line, I want the guy who I trust in with those at bats

[Redhook]

Phillips is a professional hitter, that, like the interview post elsewhere will GET IT DONE. He is flexible for what is asked of him. He has gained the trust of his manager to get the job done--if my job is on the line, I want the guy who I trust in with those at bats

It won't be his job for long if he bats BP third for an extended period of time.

[scotly50]

Bat Phillips early in the year at third then move hime down the lineup as the season progresses. As he runs out of gas and bat slows.

[SuperFan17]

It won't be his job for long if he bats BP third for an extended period of time.

I have a feeling, and just a gut feeling at that, that Price is a bit more connected to what roles in the order that best suits his team.

The key thing for me, if I were putting the lineup together, is that with Phillips hitting third... if Hamilton gets on, and Votto does his job, then Phillips is sitting there waiting to drive him in. He strikes out consistently less than 100 times per season, and if Votto isn't going to sack up and try to do everything he can to get the run in from second or third with less than two outs, then I want Phillips and his attitde to do it.

Frazier, Bruce, Mes, and Byrd have way too many swing and miss at bats to justify batting third.

[dougdirt]

I have a feeling, and just a gut feeling at that, that Price is a bit more connected to what roles in the order that best suits his team.

The key thing for me, if I were putting the lineup together, is that with Phillips hitting third... if Hamilton gets on, and Votto does his job, then Phillips is sitting there waiting to drive him in. He strikes out consistently less than 100 times per season, and if Votto isn't going to sack up and try to do everything he can to get the run in from second or third with less than two outs, then I want Phillips and his attitde to do it.

Frazier, Bruce, Mes, and Byrd have way too many swing and miss at bats to justify batting third.

Phillips may strike out less than 100 times a year, but he also leads the league in outs nearly every year. Outs aren't conducive to scoring runs.

As for "sacking up", I'd rather a guy not swing at garbage to try and making something happen (Phillips). Swinging at garbage leads to garbage contact and outs. That's bad.

[CySeymour]

He strikes out consistently less than 100 times per season, and if Votto isn't going to sack up and try to do everything he can to get the run in from second or third with less than two outs, then I want Phillips and his attitde to do it.

So you like a team that only plays for one run at a time? On average, you need about 5 runs a game to win. You don't get that many runs a game only playing for one run at a time.

[SuperFan17]

So you like a team that only plays for one run at a time? On average, you need about 5 runs a game to win. You don't get that many runs a game only playing for one run at a time.

Let's see.... with the runs scored per game at its lowest in 25 years. Yes, I will take a run when I can get it.

[SuperFan17]

Phillips may strike out less than 100 times a year, but he also leads the league in outs nearly every year. Outs aren't conducive to scoring runs.

As for "sacking up", I'd rather a guy not swing at garbage to try and making something happen (Phillips). Swinging at garbage leads to garbage contact and outs. That's bad.

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

[SlimJim11]

When was it that BP became such a great RBI man anyway? I mean if you are really into that stat, why is he considered so good at it? He's had under 85 rbi 4 of the last 5 years. And the year he had 103, who knows how rbi many a real "rbi man" would have had with Choo and Votto in the lineup.

[Redhook]

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

Nothing like getting it done by making a whole bunch of productive outs batting third. Wow. I honestly can't tell if you're serious or just playing around with your comments because they're so far off base.

[CySeymour]

Let's see.... with the runs scored per game at its lowest in 25 years. Yes, I will take a run when I can get it.

Hey, so I guess losing 4-1 is better than losing 4-0. Uh, no. A team needs to go into each game knowing they need to score 5 runs to win. Playing for a run at a time does not get you there. It's the equivalent of playing for field goals in football.

[swaisuc]

The only thing more overrated than Phillips' hitting is who bats 3rd in the lineup.

[SuperFan17]

Hey, so I guess losing 4-1 is better than losing 4-0. Uh, no. A team needs to go into each game knowing they need to score 5 runs to win. Playing for a run at a time does not get you there. It's the equivalent of playing for field goals in football.

Here's my opinion... and perhaps what Price is thinking.....
The Reds hitters strike out at a RIDICULOUS rate. 2014 showed them to have the third lowest productive out ratio in the major leagues.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?tp=team


There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%

Now, with that being said-- If Hamilton gets on base (and that is a big if) then the chances are (if Votto can be a patient two hitter) Hamilton can work his way around to either second or third--hence RBI position. Votto, being Votto, can then either draw a walk, OR hit Hamilton in. Then that brings up Phillips. Phillips, who in 2014 had a 50% productive out rate, can either knock in Hamilton (if Votto has not done so) OR move Votto around. Essentially, placing Phillips in the three spot allows the Reds to POSSIBLY move runners into a better scoring position, for the whiffers to "walk" into a hit.

Whiffers
Frazier -- 21.06 %
Mesoraco -- 23.41 %
Bruce -- 27.33 %
Byrd -- 29.04 %

Surely, you can see the logic in that statement.

[CySeymour]

Here's my opinion... and perhaps what Price is thinking.....
The Reds hitters strike out at a RIDICULOUS rate. 2014 showed them to have the third lowest productive out ratio in the major leagues.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?tp=team


There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%

Now, with that being said-- If Hamilton gets on base (and that is a big if) then the chances are (if Votto can be a patient two hitter) Hamilton can work his way around to either second or third--hence RBI position. Votto, being Votto, can then either draw a walk, OR hit Hamilton in. Then that brings up Phillips. Phillips, who in 2014 had a 50% productive out rate, can either knock in Hamilton (if Votto has not done so) OR move Votto around. Essentially, placing Phillips in the three spot allows the Reds to POSSIBLY move runners into a better scoring position, for the whiffers to "walk" into a hit.

Whiffers
Frazier -- 21.06 %
Mesoraco -- 23.41 %
Bruce -- 27.33 %
Byrd -- 29.04 %

Surely, you can see the logic in that statement.

I get what you're saying, and I respect your opinion. The problem is, the #3 hitter, who gets the third most plate appearances, will being someone who makes way too many outs for someone who hits that often. If using your list of whiffers is the options for #3, I'd say Mesoraco would be the better choice.

[SuperFan17]

I think a strong argument can be made for Mesoraco as the third hitter--for sure, especially with a .360 OBP; however, Mes has still not played in more than 75% of a major league season.

Price has indicated that he would like for Mes to play 135-140 games this year behind the plate.
http://www.foxsports.com/ohio/story/cincinnati-reds-devin-mesoraco-catcher-more-games-022015

So, in essence, I suppose one day off a week. It will be interesting to see if Mesoraco can stay healthy enough to play that many games behing the plate, and if he has the strength and stamina to replicate the numbers from last year. If I am Price, and my job is on the line (who knows if it is or is not) I would to take some solace knowing that, at the beginning of the season, I can pencil in a performer who, when healthy, has been a consistent contributor and a professional hitter like Phillips.

And then, if Mesoraco proves he is capable of repeating his hitting, then allow the three spot to have fluidity in it.
I think though, if you do that, Phillips will stay near the top of the order (four spot or five spot).

What bothers me about this Reds offense, is that no matter how you slice and dice it, you have a lot of strike-outs in consecutive order. Which, to me, is a dangerous position to be in--especially now that the decline of the home run is in full effect, pitching is dominant, the Whiffers are not the most fleet of foot, and there are a LOT of potentially non-productive outs. Which would make getting a runner around to score with a group of batters striking out almost 25% of the time, a severe challenge.

http://sportswithneil.com/2014/06/30/mlb-offense-down-due-to-pitching/

[SlimJim11]

There are four hitters (based on the 2014 stats) that struck out less than 20% of the time per plate appearance.
Billy Hamilton -- 19.14%
Joey Votto -- 18.01%
Zach Cozart -- 14.54%
Brandon Phillips -- 14.82%



Take away Votto and that list is basically our 3 worst hitters. Give me guys that strike out more often but hit the ball hard when they make contact, over guys that strike out less and make weak contact over and over. You can keep your productive out makers, I'll take base collectors.

[dougdirt]

Well, since Phillips is the best player on the Reds for productive outs, then I believe it is a good thing that he is there in the three spot getting things done.

Best player on the Reds for productive outs :: Nicest smelling garbage dump

Being the best of something that isn't good isn't a compliment.

[SuperFan17]

Take away Votto and that list is basically our 3 worst hitters. Give me guys that strike out more often but hit the ball hard when they make contact, over guys that strike out less and make weak contact over and over. You can keep your productive out makers, I'll take base collectors.

I disagree with your opinion that Phillips is one of the worst hitters in the line-up. But, alas we shall have to agree to disagree on this subject. I look forward to the time when Brandon is driving in runs, moving runners over, and not whiffing in clutch at-bats, when a productive at bat is called for.

[SuperFan17]

Best player on the Reds for productive outs :: Nicest smelling garbage dump

Being the best of something that isn't good isn't a compliment.
Thank you for interesting analysis, DougDirt.
I like to look at different things, when I am trying to evaluate a reason as to why Brandon Phillips is the third hitter for this line-up-- as opposed to Votto, Byrd, Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco.

I am wondering what is the tangible thing that Baker and Price see in Phillips. What is it, that two professional managers with much more knowledge and breadth of baseball, chose a player like Phillips--who according to so many passionate posters on this website--is clearly hands down a horrific offensive player.

So, yes, I look at productive outs. I look at strike out rates. I look at what a player does with two strikes--incidentally, for his career, Phillips has a .214 average and a .569 OPS with two strikes. Those numbers, batting average is second best on the Reds projected 2015 line-up. And the OPS with two strikes fourth on the 2015 projected line-up.

I will yield to you that Votto is the best hitter on this team.

However, there is a reason, beyond perhaps numbers as to why both Baker and Price believe in batting Phillips in important offensive slots.
I do believe that with certain players that strikeouts vs power have benefits than just trying to go the other way with a pitch.

However, hitters and organizations, I would think, should recognize that not every player is a all or nothing hitter. That certain players need to know their limitations, know the situation in the game, and understand that perhaps there are moments, when going for a homerun on two strikes is not the most prudent thing to do.

I believe Phillips is one of those players that recognizes when he needs to shorten up. When he needs to move hitters around. When he needs to play the game the way it was drawn up, and that is to make efforts to possibly go the other way or move along a runner. And I believe that because Phillips gets it. Because Phillips understands the dynamics of the game of baseball, managers like Baker and Price put their trust in him to do the right thing, and be a professional hitter, if you will.

That's all.

[SlimJim11]

I disagree with your opinion that Phillips is one of the worst hitters in the line-up.

Well we can look up some info.

Numbers from the 2012-2014 seasons

Phillips - .269/.313/.401/.714

Bruce - .245/.314/.459/.773

Frazier - .259/.327/.452/.779

Rocco - .249/.320/.436/.756

Byrd - .269/.315/.450/.765


Looks like out of the rest of the group he's worst in OBP and SLG% and he's at least .040 points behind everybody in OPS. In fact BP's highest OPS in those 3 years is .750 which is below the other 4's average OPS in that time frame. He's got that BA though.

[SuperFan17]

Well we can look up some info.


Here some other stats to crunch then.
RISP NUMBERS OVER 2012-2014


NAME
YEAR
BA
OBP
SLG


MESORACO
2012
.111
.268
.200


MES
2013
.239
.308
.318


MES
2014
.317
.413
.692


FRAZIER
2012
.245
.344
.415


FRAZIER
2013
.281
.390
.422


FRAZIER
2014
.230
.322
.405


BRUCE
2012
.236
.357
.465


BRUCE
2013
.262
.383
.442


BRUCE
2014
.242
.304
.442


BYRD
2012
.189
.220
.189


BYRD
2013
.301
.318
.538


BYRD
2014
.275
.337
.389


PHILLIPS
2012
.305
.368
.443


PHILLIPS
2013
.338
.404
.469


PHILLIPS
2014
.280
.328
.430



Essentially, not all at bats can be considered equal. I value consistency. With RISP--Phillips performs consistenly as good--if not better then those other four players.
His OPS of those 15 seasons rank him with the number 2 OPS, the number 6 OPS, and the number 10 OPS.

Perhaps... just perhaps, this is why he is batting third.

[SuperFan17]

Here are some other stats to crunch then.
RISP NUMBERS with 2 OUTS OVER 2012-2014


NAME
YEAR
BA
OBP
SLG


MESORACO
2012
.080
.281
.120


MES
2013
.225
.326
.275


MES
2014
.308
.379
.639


FRAZIER
2012
.205
.314
.318


FRAZIER
2013
.243
.354
.343


FRAZIER
2014
.188
.300
.290


BRUCE
2012
.188
.235
.188


BRUCE
2013
.173
.343
.333


BRUCE
2014
.207
.281
.379


BYRD
2012
.188
.235
.188


BYRD
2013
.282
.338
.394


BYRD
2014
.209
.301
.352


PHILLIPS
2012
.238
.322
.413


PHILLIPS
2013
.271
.411
.356


PHILLIPS
2014
.240
.269
.340



Again, not all at bats can be considered equal. I value consistency.
With RISP and TWO OUTS.--Phillips performs consistenly as good--if not better then those other four players.
His OPS of those 15 seasons rank him with the number 2 OPS, the number 3 OPS, and the number 11 OPS.

Moreover, he does not have the wild fluctuations that the other hitters have. Again. There is a reason why he is hitting third.

He has earned the trust of Price.

[dougdirt]

RISP and TWO OUTS - making up a very small percentage of his plate appearances, and don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's good in those situations, but overall, he's still not a good offensive player. When you have to dig to find a reason to argue a guy should bat third, then they shouldn't be hitting third. It should be painfully obvious that the guy should be hitting third. Mesoraco. Votto. Frazier.

[SuperFan17]

Ah yes.... the sample size argument. Good times. Again, and I hate repeating myself, but if I am a manager, whether it is on a baseball field OR in an office, and my job is at stake, then I would rather have a person that has proven year in and year out that he can perform in clutch situations. Forgive me if I misunderstand where you are coming from, but again, if I am to understand the roles of a line-up, generally speaking you would like your middle of the line-up hitters to perform well in rbi situations and/or clutch situations. If I have a guy, who over the last three years has (at his worst) hit for a .280 batting average with runners in scoring position, then chances are I am going to take that consistency OVER players that have fluctuated between .080 and .305 OR .188 and .243 OR .173 and .207 OR .188 and .282.

Price is using Votto's choice of being the OBP monster that he sees himself as, in the two hole. Well then, you need someone in the three spot that can man up and knock in that run--or at the very WORST, move him along in a better scoring position, so that your swing and miss hitters MAY be able to clutch up and get those runners in.

As far as Phillips "doing it wrong"

The man has made over 60 million dollars "doing it wrong"
He is in the major leagues and a three time manager of the year and his current manager seemed to think highly enough of his wrong skill set to place him in highly important offensive line-up positions, so forgive me if I take your opinion of what is "doing it right" and "doing it wrong" with a grain of salt.

[dougdirt]

Ah yes.... the sample size argument. Good times. Again, and I hate repeating myself, but if I am a manager, whether it is on a baseball field OR in an office, and my job is at stake, then I would rather have a person that has proven year in and year out that he can perform in clutch situations. Forgive me if I misunderstand where you are coming from, but again, if I am to understand the roles of a line-up, generally speaking you would like your middle of the line-up hitters to perform well in rbi situations and/or clutch situations. If I have a guy, who over the last three years has (at his worst) hit for a .280 batting average with runners in scoring position, then chances are I am going to take that consistency OVER players that have fluctuated between .080 and .305 OR .188 and .243 OR .173 and .207 OR .188 and .282.

Price is using Votto's choice of being the OBP monster that he sees himself as, in the two hole. Well then, you need someone in the three spot that can man up and knock in that run--or at the very WORST, move him along in a better scoring position, so that your swing and miss hitters MAY be able to clutch up and get those runners in.

As far as Phillips "doing it wrong"

The man has made over 60 million dollars "doing it wrong"
He is in the major leagues and a three time manager of the year and his current manager seemed to think highly enough of his wrong skill set to place him in highly important offensive line-up positions, so forgive me if I take your opinion of what is "doing it right" and "doing it wrong" with a grain of salt.


Phillips numbers aren't good enough to hit 3rd ahead of several other options on the team, even without accounting for Joey Votto.

He's made a bunch of money because he's a good baseball player. That doesn't mean he couldn't be better if his approach were different, assuming his skillset allows it (which is in the other thread). Don't confuse me saying his approach is wrong with he's not good or hasn't been good. It's me saying he could have been better, and especially at this point in his career when his skills are likely to start declining because of his age (father time is undefeated - he just needs a few more rounds on some guys) that change would really help him out, assuming he's got the right skillset to do it. He sounds like he believes he does have it, but he's choosing otherwise in the approach. Maybe he's just saying that rather than admitting he gets fooled. I get it if he is just saying that.

[Redhook]

It won't be his job for long if he bats BP third for an extended period of time.

I'm actually shocked, but it looks like BP is going to bat 7th right where he belongs. Price has a better chance at keeping his job now.

[marcshoe]

RISP and TWO OUTS - making up a very small percentage of his plate appearances, and don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's good in those situations, but overall, he's still not a good offensive player. When you have to dig to find a reason to argue a guy should bat third, then they shouldn't be hitting third. It should be painfully obvious that the guy should be hitting third. Mesoraco. Votto. Frazier.

Ah, but you should see how BP does in these situations when there's a full moon on a Thursday!

I'm glad to have Frazier hitting third. Better to depend on a guy at the peak of his skills in crucial spots than one who has to depend on "manning up".