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View Full Version : Frazier and Chapman Trades Early Returns


Kc61
05-09-2016, 09:45 AM
I believe you look long term before deciding who "won" a trade. But it's worth a peek at the players Reds obtained in the Frazier/Chapman deals. My bottom line is a mixed bag, but very happy with the lead players obtained.

1. Peraza and Davis. The two lead players obtained were Peraza and Davis. I'm delighted with these guys so far.

Peraza is tied for third in base hits in the Int'l League. His line is .306/.345/.407/.752. He is not merely a slap hitter. His walk rate is around 6%, hopefully will improve, not a disaster. His K rate of over 16% will need to improve for him to reach his maximum. Has position versatility and speed. Even if Peraza winds up as a top notch utility player - and he should be more than that - so far the Reds appear smart for wanting him.

Davis has an 0.93 ERA and an 0.83 WHIP. Both among Southern League leaders. FIP of 3.69. K rate only 4.7 but a microscopic walk rate of 1.6. One homer allowed in 29 innings. Seems like a guy who knows how to pitch. This is consistent with his career of low homer rate, low walk rate. Lifetime 8 Ks per nine innings And 6.5 Ks per nine at AA Eastern League before trade last year. So hopefully more Ks are coming.

2. Schebler and Jagielo. Schebler had his moments with the Reds, but didn't seem ready. Maybe just a part time player eventually will be anxious to see how he does with regular at bats at AAA. Jagielo off to a very poor start offensively. 33 Ks in 107 PAs, too many. However had an .842 OPS in the Eastern League, also AA ball, last year. Only two errors so far, so playing a cleaner third base than last year.

Both "second pieces" in these trades "need improvement" with Schebler a new opportunity at AAA.

3. Cotham - The one big league guy is Cotham, a middle reliever for the Reds. Cotham with a 6.48 ERA, very high WHIP. K rate of 7 is ok, but walk rate over 4 is not. To be fair, his numbers were blown up the other day when he pitched in extras despite two innings the previous day. He's a fringe type reliever, strictly a middle man, who is being regularly used. My guess is he was acquired as a short term innings eater, I think he can do that job this season and, if Reds want, next.

4. Dixon and Renda - Brandon Dixon acquired from Dodgers, 24 year old second baseman has a .705 ops at AA ball. .268/.315/.390/.705. Seems like a potential backup player, numbers a touch better than career stats so far. Tony Renda, 25, acquired from Yanks, hitting well so far at .307/ .358/.455/.813. Also listed as a second baseman has played third, outfield, being groomed for utility it seems. Notably, Jagielo, Dixon, Renda, Davis all on same minor league club, at AA.

Not trying to revisit who "won" the trade, just a report on the guys acquired by the Reds.
bellhead
05-09-2016, 09:56 AM
KC61,

the biggest ? will Peraza be able to play SS in the majors? or is the jury still out on that?
HokieRed
05-09-2016, 10:17 AM
KC61,

the biggest ? will Peraza be able to play SS in the majors? or is the jury still out on that?

Not sure I see this as a question mark any longer. I think he'll be the regular 2b in 2017. Phillips' defense seems barely adequate to me. Same for Suarez. Move Phillips to 3b for his last year, and use Suarez in super sub role. We have, IMO, one player actually capable of adequate SS defense--Cozart. Question is going to be what to do with him.
kaldaniels
05-09-2016, 10:23 AM
Not sure I see this as a question mark any longer. I think he'll be the regular 2b in 2017. Phillips' defense seems barely adequate to me. Same for Suarez. Move Phillips to 3b for his last year, and use Suarez in super sub role. We have, IMO, one player actually capable of adequate SS defense--Cozart. Question is going to be what to do with him.

6th best qualifed 2B in UZR/150. Small sample, but better than Altuve and Joe Panik. If you are going to claim "barely adequate" the onus will be on you to convince us. His UZR/150 has never been "barely adequate".

BP can't buy a break with some people. Or maybe you've been spoiled by him when he was truly GG caliber. :confused:

Redszone confuses me sometimes.
Kc61
05-09-2016, 10:28 AM
Not sure I see this as a question mark any longer. I think he'll be the regular 2b in 2017. Phillips' defense seems barely adequate to me. Same for Suarez. Move Phillips to 3b for his last year, and use Suarez in super sub role. We have, IMO, one player actually capable of adequate SS defense--Cozart. Question is going to be what to do with him.

I think Suarez will be good at third. Good range. Errors less often these days. Give it time. I see Peraza in middle infield and occasionally OF. Maybe super utility initially.
Sea Ray
05-09-2016, 10:29 AM
I think Suarez will be good at third. Good range. Errors less often these days. Give it time. I see Peraza in middle infield and occasionally OF.

They can't take Suarez' bat out of the lineup
REDREAD
05-09-2016, 10:46 AM
I think Phillips will be fine in his last 2 seasons at 2b.
Anyhow, regardless of 2b, if Peraza can handle SS defensively, you have to play him there.
It's a lot easier to find a 2b to plug into a hole than a SS.
I'm assuming Cozart is a relative short timer here too.
HokieRed
05-09-2016, 11:51 AM
6th best qualifed 2B in UZR/150. Small sample, but better than Altuve and Joe Panik. If you are going to claim "barely adequate" the onus will be on you to convince us. His UZR/150 has never been "barely adequate".

BP can't buy a break with some people. Or maybe you've been spoiled by him when he was truly GG caliber. :confused:

Redszone confuses me sometimes.

Fair enough. I have been and am a Phillips fan. Probably somewhat spoiled by his defense from the past. My real concern is not with Phillips; it's with Suarez's .928 at 3b and with getting Peraza into the position he'll be best at over what I hope will be six years of starting for us--and it seems likely that's 2b. Probably no chance BP would entertain the idea of a move to 3b--and probably no reason he should after what he's accomplished at 2b for us. But playing Suarez b/c we need his bat and then moving Peraza to a position other than his best defensive one don't seem like moves to me that will make for strong defense. In the infield, as in the outfield, I don't see a very good match between what's coming in the rebuild and the positions to be filled. (e.g. we have a whole lot of LF candidates, not so much in RF and CF)
757690
05-09-2016, 12:22 PM
Well done analysis as usual, KC. I wish the Reds front office was as dependable as you ;)

I like Peraza and Dsvis, and am optimistic that they can be contributors to the Reds in the future. But if all the Reds get from trading Frazier and Chapman is a super utility guy and a low K, crafty, right handed starting pitcher, it will be very disappointing.
Kc61
05-09-2016, 12:51 PM
Well done analysis as usual, KC. I wish the Reds front office was as dependable as you ;)

I like Peraza and Dsvis, and am optimistic that they can be contributors to the Reds in the future. But if all the Reds get from trading Frazier and Chapman is a super utility guy and a low K, crafty, right handed starting pitcher, it will be very disappointing.

Well, the timing wasn't optimal on the trades, we agree on that.

But even as a super utility guy, I think Peraza can have a big impact on the Reds. Great teams have a few major contributors who don't necessarily start every day. And, of course, Peraza could easily turn out as an everyday guy.

Is he Bip Roberts? Or Juan Pierre playing infield? Or is he just another fast singles hitter who will OPS .650 in the big leagues. That's the question I see, really hope it works out.
tomnuetten
05-09-2016, 12:51 PM
I donīt really care who "won" the trade. I do want to know if the return helped the reds or not if Frazier or Chapman are lights out with the new teams => fine, but it doesnīt make the trade worse (if the return produces)

the reds couldnīt (or rightfully didnīt want to) afford long term contracts with those players. They wouldnīt have made the reds a contender this year and therefore it made sense to move them (if the they like the return)...