College Football 2019 Bowl Season: Buckeyes Against the World

[Boston Red]

Just noticed that JMU is favored over North Dakota State. It's not often you can get the Bison AND points (1.5 of them in this case).

[Todd Gack]

So at the end of it all, the difference in the SEC big ten head to heads is a missed extra point. Seems about right to me.

Just did some math, total yards BT- 1,192, SEC- 1,086; total touchdowns BT-7, SEC-10; field goals BT- 7, SEC- 4. About as close as can be. Both had 14 scoring plays, the SEC tends to score TDs, and the BT is content with FGs. Agressive wins vs conservative a lot more often than the other way around.

Conference pride is the worst. It brings our posts like these where we’re comparing the amount of FIELD GOALS a conference had. The SEC started this and then Big 10 fans decided they weren’t going to be outdone.

[Sea Ray]

If we're really going to compare conferences the SEC did it's normal thing. They "won" by going 7-2. Big Ten went 4-5. No comparison. To say that the SEC is a point better than the Big Ten is like saying the GB Packers are a point better than the Detroit Lions since they won by one pt in their first game and by a FG as time expired in their second game. Then we'll just ignore the 3-12-1 record vs the 13-3 record. :rolleyes:

[GAC]

Foolish may have been too strong a word. But to me, there were several examples of things you can't do in big games against top competition. The roughing the kicker play was colossally foolish in that situation and really should never happen, although to me it was a text book example of running into the kicker and not roughing. But in that situation you just don't even get close. You're getting the ball back with great field position.

And while we can argue the targeting call, you can't really argue that he led with the crown of his helmet. That's not smart, especially considering Lawrence had nowhere to go. He couldn't have possibly escaped that situation, so a big hit was not needed. That was the biggest play of the game.

And while maybe not a "foolish" play, Clemson's first TD should have been a tackle for a loss forcing them to kick a FG, but the OSU defender made a half-hearted effort at a tackle. That play hasn't really been talked about, but it was not insignificant.

I was also lumping in some of the coaching decisions. They got way too conservative on offense in critical parts of the game. That has been the death knell for many a team in big games. It's how the Patriots have won many of their big games. They never do it themselves.

I can't really point to anything Clemson did that hurt them in the game. They had to come back to win because OSU was simply better than them most of the game, but they didn't give anything to OSU, while OSU gave them A LOT. Had Clemson lost I doubt there would have been many ifs. For OSU, I can point to 4-5 that in all liklihood would have led to a different result (Dobbins drops are another huge factor that got overshadowed later).

The benefit of this game is Ryan Day got incredibly valuable big game coaching experience that he's going to learn from. He's a great coach and has a great roster and some great players coming in. They're going to win one sooner rather than later I believe.

Ohio State has to run the ball. When Dobbin's injured that ankle in the first half I went Rut-Roh. And Clemson went into halftime with momentum too. How can you slow that momentum? Effectively run the ball to establish other parts of the game. Dobbins was very limited in the second half. not much of a force, due to that ankle. The kid was trying to play through a lot of pain.

[oregonred]

All can agree that extra points just mean more in the SEC

[oregonred]

While arguing the merits of the SEC #7 team pulling out a 1-pt improbable win over the B1G #7 team after B1G #6 beating SEC #5 but not before SEC #4 beat B1G #5...

First SEC winning year in a bowl season since 2015

Did I see somewhere FBS teams were 437-0 this year when leading by 13 or more points in the last 5 minutes? That seems incredible if true

[Sea Ray]

While arguing the merits of the SEC #7 team pulling out a 1-pt improbable win over the B1G #7 team after B1G #6 beating SEC #5 but not before SEC #4 beat B1G #5...

First SEC winning year in a bowl season since 2015

Did I see somewhere FBS teams were 437-0 this year when leading by 13 or more points in the last 5 minutes? That seems incredible if true

I'm hearing 471-0

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1212942627340869632

[oregonred]

That's insance. One would figure there might be 3 or 4 over the season as improbable

Heck the Bengals scored 16 pts in the final 34 seconds while I watched in horror at Hard Rock Stadium in the Tankathon

[Sea Ray]

That's insance. One would figure there might be 3 or 4 over the season as improbable

Heck the Bengals scored 16 pts in the final 34 seconds while I watched in horror at Hard Rock Stadium in the Tankathon

I still can't believe it...:yikes:

[jimbo]

If we're really going to compare conferences the SEC did it's normal thing. They "won" by going 7-2. Big Ten went 4-5. No comparison. To say that the SEC is a point better than the Big Ten is like saying the GB Packers are a point better than the Detroit Lions since they won by one pt in their first game and by a FG as time expired in their second game. Then we'll just ignore the 3-12-1 record vs the 13-3 record. :rolleyes:

Funny how last year when the Big10 went 7-1 in bowl games, the narrative was completely different. Double :rolleyes:

[Sea Ray]

Funny how last year when the Big10 went 7-1 in bowl games, the narrative was completely different. Double :rolleyes:

Is there a comment you have in mind? My recollection is that I said the Big Ten had a very fine yr and congrats to them for that. If not, I'll say it now. I see you're not referencing anything here so I really don't know why you're slamming me.

[Sea Ray]

Funny how last year when the Big10 went 7-1 in bowl games, the narrative was completely different. Double :rolleyes:

After doing some research, it was not last yr but two yrs ago. Here's what I said:


The Big Ten had an excellent Bowl season and an excellent football year. Kudos to them but that will be overshadowed by the SEC's showing and their having the best 2 teams in the nation. The Big Ten was favored in 7 of their 9 Bowl games. The matchups were good, likely due to their not getting any teams into the CFP. Had the same happened to the SEC, Alabama and Georgia's inclusion to their non playoff seeding in Bowls then they'd have likely fared very well indeed. This reality makes it all the more depressing for the PAC12 who also had all of their teams available for the non playoff Bowls yet they still lost and lost some more.

Recall that was the yr that the SEC had two teams in the CFP. This definitely helped the B10 in matchups such as the Citrus/Outback. I said it was an excellent yr for the B10 and that was the headliner of my post. It was. Kudos.

2019, not so much

[Assembly Hall]

After doing some research, it was not last yr but two yrs ago. Here's what I said:



Recall that was the yr that the SEC had two teams in the CFP. This definitely helped the B10 in matchups such as the Citrus/Outback. I said it was an excellent yr for the B10 and that was the headliner of my post. It was. Kudos.

2019, not so much

Of course the match-ups never favor the SEC schools...

[WVRed]

Speaking of the SEC:


https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28415581/mississippi-state-fires-joe-moorhead-2-seasons

[Sea Ray]

Of course the match-ups never favor the SEC schools...

This year the SEC was favored in all 9 games

[Boston Red]

This year the SEC was favored in all 9 games

Virginia Tech was a 2.5 point favorite over Kentucky.

[oregonred]

SEC and Big Ten have separated themselves

The Big Ten coaching arms race starting with Urban Meyer has resulted in a bounty of quality coaches and stable programs (outside the MD and Rutgers grease fires - thanks Jim Delaney) and 2020 is going to be a dogfight in both divisions. I hate the 9-game schedule unless mandated across all the Power 5.

SEC top tier (LSU/Bama/GA/UF) gets the slight nod over the Big Ten (OSU/PSU/Wisconsin/Minny) but the bowl matchups for the NYD 6 were terrible with mismatches for GA, PSU and UF. Both conferences had eleven of the top 16 (6 B1G and 5 SEC) going into the Bowl Season, the middle looks to be a slight edge to the B1G and the bottom tier was just fugly across both leagues

If there is any debate next year on 1 loss teams making the playoff, the Committee has to take the SEC and B1G over any other conference

There needs to be a resolution to Notre Dame/ACC quasi membership and the 9-game schedule

[Sea Ray]

Virginia Tech was a 2.5 point favorite over Kentucky.

Thanks for that correction. I'm not a bettor. Kudos to the Wildcats on the upset.

[Sea Ray]

SEC and Big Ten have separated themselves

The Big Ten coaching arms race starting with Urban Meyer has resulted in a bounty of quality coaches and stable programs (outside the MD and Rutgers grease fires - thanks Jim Delaney) and 2020 is going to be a dogfight in both divisions. I hate the 9-game schedule unless mandated across all the Power 5.

SEC top tier (LSU/Bama/GA/UF) gets the slight nod over the Big Ten (OSU/PSU/Wisconsin/Minny) but the bowl matchups for the NYD 6 were terrible with mismatches for GA, PSU and UF. Both conferences had eleven of the top 16 (6 B1G and 5 SEC) going into the Bowl Season, the middle looks to be a slight edge to the B1G and the bottom tier was just fugly across both leagues

If there is any debate next year on 1 loss teams making the playoff, the Committee has to take the SEC and B1G over any other conference

There needs to be a resolution to Notre Dame/ACC quasi membership and the 9-game schedule

I don't foresee any Big 10 team making it to the playoff anytime soon other than Ohio State.

[Boston Red]

I forgot Frank Solich was at The Ohio University. He's been there forever. Too bad for Nebraska.

[WVRed]

I don't foresee any Big 10 team making it to the playoff anytime soon other than Ohio State.

And if Ohio State stubs their toe like last season against Purdue, then it’s possible they send nobody.

The SEC is the only conference that has sent and likely will continue to send at least one team to the playoff.

I’m curious to see what happens with the Cowboys because if Lincoln Riley is seriously a candidate there it will blow the Big 12 wide open.

[Assembly Hall]

I don't foresee any Big 10 team making it to the playoff anytime soon other than Ohio State.

We shall see.

[oregonred]

Maybe so since the Big Ten is dumb enough to agree to the current committee members. Lots of SEC, ACC and Pac 12 ties. One Big Ten AD. Jim Delaney was an egocentric moron.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

One interesting note is that Notre Dame plays Clemson next year in South Bend. And at Lambeau vs. Wisconsin

Ohio State at Oregon is another huge variable

[Boston Red]

Since when did this become the tin foil hat thread?

[oregonred]

It's an internet forum. Tin foil by definition

Take a look at the Committee member list and ask yourself if it looks balanced if there is a 50/50 call (say #1 overall seed this year or a 4th seed tie-break next year)

[oregonred]

Wow. Next year has some interesting scheduling twists with some more meaty scenarios

Notre Dame playing Clemson (and at Wisconsin)

The SEC crossover finally has Bama playing Georgia in the regular season in Athens (happens once every 12 years)

Texas visits LSU

OSU at Oregon, Michigan at Wisconsin, USC and Bama in Dallas (not a 50/50 but still better than Duke)

Clemson's schedule outside Notre Dame is laughable. Pencil them into the playoff in 2021

3 spots left

[Sea Ray]

And if Ohio State stubs their toe like last season against Purdue, then it’s possible they send nobody.

The SEC is the only conference that has sent and likely will continue to send at least one team to the playoff.

I’m curious to see what happens with the Cowboys because if Lincoln Riley is seriously a candidate there it will blow the Big 12 wide open.

Exactly right.

[Sea Ray]

It's an internet forum. Tin foil by definition

Take a look at the Committee member list and ask yourself if it looks balanced if there is a 50/50 call (say #1 overall seed this year or a 4th seed tie-break next year)

Here's the member list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

I don't see any imbalance. There is one rep from each power conference. Right now there are two guys with SEC ties but that's hardly enough to control a committee of 13. If you count Ronnie lott as a PAC12 guy then they have two reps. Frank Beamer could be considered the ACC's second guy. I wouldn't say "two" is lots of ties.
Prior to this year the committee had two Big Ten guys in Gene Smith and Barry Alvarez. I don't recall anyone claiming that it was slanted in the Big Ten's favor

[North]

Tennessee fans...

15515

:)

[oregonred]

Here's the member list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

I don't see any imbalance. There is one rep from each power conference. Right now there are two guys with SEC ties but that's hardly enough to control a committee of 13. If you count Ronnie lott as a PAC12 guy then they have two reps. Frank Beamer could be considered the ACC's second guy. I wouldn't say "two" is lots of ties.
Prior to this year the committee had two Big Ten guys in Gene Smith and Barry Alvarez. I don't recall anyone claiming that it was slanted in the Big Ten's favor

Gene Smith took Barry Alvarez slot in 2017. They were never on together.

Dumb for the B1G since Gene Smith had to recuse himself from any OSU discussions

Iowa AD is the only member of the 13 with pure midwest/NEast ties. 2 Pac 10. While the rest are Southerners...

Regardless the whole idea of a Committee seeding 4 teams with 5 conference champions + ND has been and remains laughable

[GAC]

Are we still arguing like little kids whose conference is better, and that my Dad can beat up your Dad?

The only way to settle this is a steel cage match! LMAO

http://www.onlineworldofwrestling.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/Steel-cage.jpg

Because ....

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSdSjKJnvqh9nJNSKU6D0vJxSCMG9h FRSy-TSww-K8b0GYj7vyU

[oregonred]

Nah we already settled that in 1865 :)

1) SEC
2) Big Ten

Big gap...

Big 12, Pac 12, AAC, ACC

Coaching rank, Big Ten a clear #1

SEC: Saban, Mullen, who is #3/#4? Ed O, Crazy Gus?

[Sea Ray]

Tennessee fans...



:)

At that point the Tennessee folks were well into their moonshine...

[Sea Ray]

Gene Smith took Barry Alvarez slot in 2017. They were never on together.

Dumb for the B1G since Gene Smith had to recuse himself from any OSU discussions

Iowa AD is the only member of the 13 with pure midwest/NEast ties. 2 Pac 10. While the rest are Southerners...

Regardless the whole idea of a Committee seeding 4 teams with 5 conference champions + ND has been and remains laughable

I think they've done a pretty good job. This year there were only 3 teams they needed to get right and they got 'em all in

[Sea Ray]

Nah we already settled that in 1865 :)

1) SEC
2) Big Ten

Big gap...

Big 12, Pac 12, AAC, ACC

Coaching rank, Big Ten a clear #1

SEC: Saban, Mullen, who is #3/#4? Ed O, Crazy Gus?

I'd rank Coach O, Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fischer well above Mullen and almost all Big Ten coaches. I don't know what you admire so much about Big Ten coaches. The SEC coaches as a whole outrecruit their Big10 counterparts and it's not even close.

[RichRed]

Just noticed that JMU is favored over North Dakota State. It's not often you can get the Bison AND points (1.5 of them in this case).

This might be the most talented JMU team I’ve ever seen and my Dukes are peaking at the right time. But NDSU is talented too and they’re so hard to beat because they rarely make mistakes. Case in point: Their redshirt freshman QB Trey Lance has 28 TDs and ZERO interceptions. These are clearly the two best teams in FCS, having been ranked 1-2 the entire season. Should be a good one - the suspense is killing me!

[WVRed]

I'd rank Coach O, Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fischer well above Mullen and almost all Big Ten coaches. I don't know what you admire so much about Big Ten coaches. The SEC coaches as a whole outrecruit their Big10 counterparts and it's not even close.

I’m not buying Jimbo. He has the ring from Free Shoes University but he really hasn’t done much since coming over to the SEC. Could be wrong if given time though.

The fact that Kentucky, a middle of the pack SEC program, is poaching talent from Ohio and Michigan should speak volumes about SEC/Big Ten recruiting. Ohio is a fertile state for recruiting and Ohio State will have their pick when they aren’t recruiting nationally, but there’s enough talent in the Buckeye State to feed the rest of the conference, MAC, and UC.

[Sea Ray]

I’m not buying Jimbo. He has the ring from Free Shoes University but he really hasn’t done much since coming over to the SEC. Could be wrong if given time though.

The fact that Kentucky, a middle of the pack SEC program, is poaching talent from Ohio and Michigan should speak volumes about SEC/Big Ten recruiting. Ohio is a fertile state for recruiting and Ohio State will have their pick when they aren’t recruiting nationally, but there’s enough talent in the Buckeye State to feed the rest of the conference, MAC, and UC.

Jimbo is recruiting top ten classes for a school that's not accustomed to such classes. As a fan of a another SEC school I hope he keeps underachieving on the field but this is how you build a program.

Ohio State is getting their pick of Ohio talent but why is Kentucky and UC getting the others from the state rather than fellow Big Ten schools?

[North]

Are we still arguing like little kids whose conference is better, and that my Dad can beat up your Dad?

The only way to settle this is a steel cage match! LMAO

http://www.onlineworldofwrestling.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/Steel-cage.jpg

Because ....

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSdSjKJnvqh9nJNSKU6D0vJxSCMG9h FRSy-TSww-K8b0GYj7vyU

Throw Harbaugh and Saban into that cage, and may the biggest ego win.

[Sea Ray]

Gator Bowl was by far the highest rated cable show that night and it was one of the most highly attended Bowl games:


The Gator had higher ratings than the Outback, Music City, Belk, Liberty, Camping World, Pinstripe and Holiday Bowls.

“Any time you can be among the top-three of the nine or 10 bowls on our tier, you’ve got to be pleased,” said Gator Bowl president Rick Catlett on Saturday.

The Gator Bowl performed among the best in the nation for attendance, with 61,789. With Tennessee fans flocking to Jacksonville, it was sixth-biggest crowd among the 39 bowl games played before next week’s College Football Playoff national championship between Clemson and LSU, behind only the two CFP semifinals at the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, and the Rose, Orange and Texas bowls.


Among the games the Gator out-drew were the Sugar, Cotton, Citrus, Outback, Camping World, Music City, Belk, Alamo and Holiday.

https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20200104/taxslayer-gator-bowl-tv-ratings-surpass-most-games-on-its-tier

IU and UT-Knoxville really came out and supported their schools. I'm hearing UT fans saying that IU traveled much better than past Big Ten teams the Vols have played, Iowa and Northwestern.

[Boston Red]

I joked with my brother (who lives in Saint Augustine) that it looked like the biggest crowd that stadium had ever seen. Nice to hear Indiana traveled well, too, but on TV it looked overwhelmingly orange.

[Sea Ray]

CBS ranked the Gator Bowl the 3rd best Bowl of the 39:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ranking-all-39-college-football-bowl-games-for-2019-20-from-worst-to-best/

They even liked it better than the OSU-Clemson game.

They ranked the Kentucky win in the Belk Bowl #1. For those who think there are too many Bowls, I found it interesting that this is the last yr for the Belk Bowl. I didn't realize that till I read this article

[Hillsdale87]

So what does everybody think for the game Monday night?

I'm expecting LSU to win fairly easily, which would be great so that I can go to bed early. I felt like OSU was quite a bit better than Clemson, but Clemson obviously did a good job maximizing the mistakes OSU made. I don't expect LSU to make many mistakes. As good as Fields is, Burrow is even more dangerous, and I don't think LSU will stall in the red zone like OSU did.

LSU's defense is not quite at OSU's level, but it has been much improved the last few games of the season, and I think they'll be able to slow Clemson down enough.

[dubc47834]

Gator Bowl was by far the highest rated cable show that night and it was one of the most highly attended Bowl games:



https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20200104/taxslayer-gator-bowl-tv-ratings-surpass-most-games-on-its-tier

IU and UT-Knoxville really came out and supported their schools. I'm hearing UT fans saying that IU traveled much better than past Big Ten teams the Vols have played, Iowa and Northwestern.

If I had to guess, I would say it's one of 2 reasons....

1. IU doesn't get to a lot of bowl games, and when they do it's generally the Holiday Inn Housekeeping Bowl.

2. IU's basketball team has a pretty good following around the country, so a lot of those fans showed up because it's IU.

[Boston Red]

I'm the opposite. I think Clemson's defense will be by far and away the best LSU will have faced this year, while LSU's defense is pedestrian by comparison. I expect Clemson to have more success slowing down LSU than the other way around. Now, of course a timely turnover or two can change everything, but I expect Clemson to win.

[dubc47834]

So what does everybody think for the game Monday night?

I'm expecting LSU to win fairly easily, which would be great so that I can go to bed early. I felt like OSU was quite a bit better than Clemson, but Clemson obviously did a good job maximizing the mistakes OSU made. I don't expect LSU to make many mistakes. As good as Fields is, Burrow is even more dangerous, and I don't think LSU will stall in the red zone like OSU did.

LSU's defense is not quite at OSU's level, but it has been much improved the last few games of the season, and I think they'll be able to slow Clemson down enough.

I'm gonna go against the grain I think, I think Clemson wins. Many "experts" thought OSU was the best team in the country. Clemson pulled that one out. I know one could argue that if a call or two goes a different way that OSU wins, and I would agree, but in the end Clemson still won the game. Clemson shows up to big games. Plus I'm not completely sold on Burrows. He has had a great season, but I'm not overly impressed with him, not like I am with Lawrence. I'm thinking Clemson...35-31

[Hillsdale87]

I'm gonna go against the grain I think, I think Clemson wins. Many "experts" thought OSU was the best team in the country. Clemson pulled that one out. I know one could argue that if a call or two goes a different way that OSU wins, and I would agree, but in the end Clemson still won the game. Clemson shows up to big games. Plus I'm not completely sold on Burrows. He has had a great season, but I'm not overly impressed with him, not like I am with Lawrence. I'm thinking Clemson...35-31

What keeps you from being impressed with Burrow? He's had the greatest statistical season in CFB history and dominated every top defense he's played. I don't think Clemson will be nearly the toughest defense he's faced this year.

I actually came out of the OSU game underwhelmed by Lawrence, although I still obviously think he's very good. But he changed the game with his legs, not his arm. That caught OSU off guard, but LSU will now be prepared. He had a great last drive, but other than that he struggled to throw the ball all game.

[Boston Red]

I don't think Clemson will be nearly the toughest defense he's faced this year..

OK, I was with you on the not being impressed with Burrow part. But ???? What defense has LSU seen even in the same stratosphere as Clemson?

[Hillsdale87]

OK, I was with you on the not being impressed with Burrow part. But ???? What defense has LSU seen even in the same stratosphere as Clemson?

Georgia, Florida, Auburn. Clemson's team defense stats are good, but they didn't play a good offense all year. Georgia's defensive stats are almost the same, but against significantly better competition.

Clemson has a very good defense, but they lost a lot of stars from last year's team. They may have held OSU to 23 points, but OSU gained 515 yards and likely would have had more without Dobbins' injury. I think their defense is good, but not elite.

[Boston Red]

I'll give you Georgia. Maybe. But Clemson is worlds better on defense than Florida and Auburn. And LSU's defense is kinda pedestrian.

[RiverRat13]

I'm not totally sold on LSU's defensive improvement. I think the Championship is going to be a higher scoring game than the Fiesta Bowl, but it will be decided in a similar fashion - how well does Clemson's redzone defense hold up.

[Redsfaithful]

Genuinely curious what a quarterback would have to do to impress if that performance against Oklahoma didn't do it!

[BuckeyeRed27]

I think Clemson wins by a TD or so. I think Lawrence will be more effective passing than he was against OSU. I also think Dabo/Venables are way better than Orgeron and Co.

I don’t think it’s great for LSU that they skated in the semi and looked so good. It reminds me of March Madness when a team wins by 25 in the Sweet Sixteen and everyone talks about how great they are only to lose in the Elite Eight.

[Hillsdale87]

I'll give you Georgia. Maybe. But Clemson is worlds better on defense than Florida and Auburn. And LSU's defense is kinda pedestrian.

I guess we'll find out Monday, but I don't think this is the same Clemson D that they've had the last few years. There's a ton of talent, they're just young, so I think they'll be better next year. But OSU really had no issues, and it was only their own mistakes that kept them from putting up 40 points. I expect LSU to drop 35+ on Monday.

[bucksfan2]

Georgia, Florida, Auburn. Clemson's team defense stats are good, but they didn't play a good offense all year. Georgia's defensive stats are almost the same, but against significantly better competition.

Clemson has a very good defense, but they lost a lot of stars from last year's team. They may have held OSU to 23 points, but OSU gained 515 yards and likely would have had more without Dobbins' injury. I think their defense is good, but not elite.

Clemson's defense did not impress me. In the first half Dobbins dropped two TD's that would have blown the game wide open. OSU for 3/4th of the game marched up and down the field on Clemson. They did make some adjustments and stopped OSU for most of the 3rd quarter, but I do wonder how much of that was Dobbins being hurt and Fields limited. Honestly, I think Clemson's defense is all reputation right now, they just didn't impress me. Most of OSU's struggles were self inflicted (Dobbins drops) or ref aided (targeting and fumble overturned.)

Maybe its the bias in me, because I want LSU to hang half a billion points on Clemson, but I don't see Clemson winning unless things break the same way it did against OSU. I saw/heard something, that OSU had 10 things happen to them, that if one of those changes, the game changes. I just don't think Clemson gets "lucky" again against LSU. While I think OSU gashed Clemson with the run, I think LSU's passing attack is more advanced than what OSU's is. I also think the OSU and LSU lines are comparable which doesn't bode well for Clemson. Lawrence is a tough SOB, and I was impressed with this running ability far more than his passing ability. I don't think LSU's defense is as good as OSU's, but they will hit you, hit you hard, and I just don't think Clemson can keep up. It also doesn't hurt that the game is in New Orleans.

[Roy Tucker]

I think it comes down to how much pressure can Clemson put on Burrow when passing. Burrow doesn’t have a rocket arm but has great touch. So he needs time to make accurate throws. If the pocket gets dirty, he’ll get less accurate. And Clemson minimizing yards after catch on LSU receivers with good tackling.

I think it’s a close game. Clemson 38-35.

[Hillsdale87]

I think it comes down to how much pressure can Clemson put on Burrow when passing. Burrow doesn’t have a rocket arm but has great touch. So he needs time to make accurate throws. If the pocket gets dirty, he’ll get less accurate. And Clemson minimizing yards after catch on LSU receivers with good tackling.

I think it’s a close game. Clemson 38-35.

Burrow has actually been more dangerous when pressured this year than in a clean pocket. His movement in the pocket is incredible. Multiple draft analysts have said it's the best of any player they've ever scouted.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200110/5e0d9acd9073c0f4be4d3db5dd834acb.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hillsdale87]

Clemson's defense did not impress me. In the first half Dobbins dropped two TD's that would have blown the game wide open. OSU for 3/4th of the game marched up and down the field on Clemson. They did make some adjustments and stopped OSU for most of the 3rd quarter, but I do wonder how much of that was Dobbins being hurt and Fields limited. Honestly, I think Clemson's defense is all reputation right now, they just didn't impress me. Most of OSU's struggles were self inflicted (Dobbins drops) or ref aided (targeting and fumble overturned.)


This was my feeling as well. Coming into the game I thought Clemson would be the better team and was worried that they could shut down the OSU offense. As it turned out, OSU mostly stopped themselves, although Clemson made some big plays at key times. I came out of the game with a lower opinion of Clemson than I went into it with.

Then again, I thought Alabama would beat them last year, so who knows. Their coaching staff is obviously great.


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[Bob Sheed]

Burrow clearly sucks. I'm sure we can all agree on that.

[adkindo]

Chris Fallica
@chrisfallica

Despite being favored only twice in its last 11 bowl games, Clemson is 10-1 ATS and won 9 of those games outright.

11:10 AM · Jan 10, 2020

the one that got away....

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[Sea Ray]

Burrow has actually been more dangerous when pressured this year than in a clean pocket. His movement in the pocket is incredible. Multiple draft analysts have said it's the best of any player they've ever scouted.

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What is the formula for EPA?

[Todd Gack]

Clemson's defense did not impress me. In the first half Dobbins dropped two TD's that would have blown the game wide open. OSU for 3/4th of the game marched up and down the field on Clemson. They did make some adjustments and stopped OSU for most of the 3rd quarter, but I do wonder how much of that was Dobbins being hurt and Fields limited. Honestly, I think Clemson's defense is all reputation right now, they just didn't impress me. Most of OSU's struggles were self inflicted (Dobbins drops) or ref aided (targeting and fumble overturned.)



Or maybe the talent on OSU's offense is pretty darn good and Ryan Day isn't as good as you think?

[Hillsdale87]

What is the formula for EPA?

It's a very complicated calculation, but it's essentially a measure of expected points gained or lost on each play. So a negative gain on 1st down yields negative EPA, but getting a 1st down yields positive EPA. It's also weighted by situation.

Here's a detailed breakdown: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8379024/nfl-explaining-expected-points-metric

The PFF metrics show the same thing. He's the best QB in CFB history under pressure, and by a wide margin. His line is ok, but not great. They may have won the award for best line in the nation, but the voting on most awards is pretty suspect. They don't have anybody projected to be drafted high in the NFL, and their metrics are mediocre. Burrow has been under pressure on 31% of dropbacks, and has a 146.5 passer rating while pressures.

So yes, obviously Clemson is going to try to get pressure with their front 4, bit if they don't get home quickly then Burrow is very good at creating out of structure (also the best QB at that), and if they blitz, Burrow has been great at finding the holes in the defense and exploiting with fewer defenders downfield.

Should be a really fun game.


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[Hillsdale87]

Or maybe the talent on OSU's offense is pretty darn good and Ryan Day isn't as good as you think?

The talent is pretty great, but where would the indictment on Day be? The reason OSU didn't convert in the red zone is because Dobbins dropped 2 TD passes on great play calls and then Olave cut off his route on a play that looked like it would have been a TD if he had kept going. Day wasn't perfect, and there were probably a few things he would like to have back, but he outcoached Dabo and Venables for most of that game.


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[Todd Gack]

The talent is pretty great, but where would the indictment on Day be?
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I'm not sold on Day yet. I'm not saying he won't succeed or end up being a failure at OSU. He's been at OSU for just 1 year. It's too early to tell. I just think it's hard to judge a guy who took over a very favorable situation. He has enormous talent, resources, and unlimited budget. His biggest job is just to not mess it up so I guess this year was OK? Same with Lincoln Riley. What exactly has he ever done? Riley's defenses have, for all intents and purposes, sucked. He was embarrassed in the Peach Bowl, lost to a very average Kansas State team this year, Texas last year. The Big 12 just isn't very good. So I guess he's succeeded, so far, in just not messing things up. But as a HC, I'm not entirely impressed with what he's done. Congrats to Lincoln for being awesome at drawing up some awesome plays on the old chalkboard.

[Sea Ray]

I'm not sold on Day yet. I'm not saying he won't succeed or end up being a failure at OSU. He's been at OSU for just 1 year. It's too early to tell. I just think it's hard to judge a guy who took over a very favorable situation. He has enormous talent, resources, and unlimited budget. His biggest job is just to not mess it up so I guess this year was OK? Same with Lincoln Riley. What exactly has he ever done? Riley's defenses have, for all intents and purposes, sucked. He was embarrassed in the Peach Bowl, lost to a very average Kansas State team this year, Texas last year. The Big 12 just isn't very good. So I guess he's succeeded, so far, in just not messing things up. But as a HC, I'm not entirely impressed with what he's done. Congrats to Lincoln for being awesome at drawing up some awesome plays on the old chalkboard.

My Tennessee Vols will play Lincoln Riley's team next yr in game 2. I'm very much looking forward to that and see where my Vols stand

As for Day, I think he had a very good yr. Unlike many of Urban's teams, the Bucks didn't have an off week. But it is far too early to judge him

[Hillsdale87]

I'm not sold on Day yet. I'm not saying he won't succeed or end up being a failure at OSU. He's been at OSU for just 1 year. It's too early to tell. I just think it's hard to judge a guy who took over a very favorable situation. He has enormous talent, resources, and unlimited budget. His biggest job is just to not mess it up so I guess this year was OK? Same with Lincoln Riley. What exactly has he ever done? Riley's defenses have, for all intents and purposes, sucked. He was embarrassed in the Peach Bowl, lost to a very average Kansas State team this year, Texas last year. The Big 12 just isn't very good. So I guess he's succeeded, so far, in just not messing things up. But as a HC, I'm not entirely impressed with what he's done. Congrats to Lincoln for being awesome at drawing up some awesome plays on the old chalkboard.

Sure, we'll learn more about Day in the coming years, but that game did not reveal any deficiencies. This OSU team was better and more consistent than any OSU team since 2014.

And yes, he took over a great situation and then delivered a top 5 recruiting class for 2020 and is #1 currently for 2021. He's given no reason to doubt yet


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[RichRed]

This might be the most talented JMU team I’ve ever seen and my Dukes are peaking at the right time. But NDSU is talented too and they’re so hard to beat because they rarely make mistakes. Case in point: Their redshirt freshman QB Trey Lance has 28 TDs and ZERO interceptions. These are clearly the two best teams in FCS, having been ranked 1-2 the entire season. Should be a good one - the suspense is killing me!

My Dukes came up short, 28-20. Had a chance to possibly tie at the end but threw an INT from the Bison 2 yard line with 8 seconds left to play, the only turnover by either team. NDSU has now won 37 in a row and JMU’s winning streak ends at 14. I’m pretty crushed but proud of the boys for their effort.

[dubc47834]

What keeps you from being impressed with Burrow? He's had the greatest statistical season in CFB history and dominated every top defense he's played. I don't think Clemson will be nearly the toughest defense he's faced this year.

I actually came out of the OSU game underwhelmed by Lawrence, although I still obviously think he's very good. But he changed the game with his legs, not his arm. That caught OSU off guard, but LSU will now be prepared. He had a great last drive, but other than that he struggled to throw the ball all game.

Really 2 things...arm strength and he's only done it 1 season.

[Hillsdale87]

Really 2 things...arm strength and he's only done it 1 season.

Well the arm strength is plenty good enough for college. He's the best intermediate and deep passer in college football. Seems like most of the draft analysts list him as having an average to slightly above average arm, which should be good enough considering his other positives.


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[bucksfan2]

I'm not sold on Day yet. I'm not saying he won't succeed or end up being a failure at OSU. He's been at OSU for just 1 year. It's too early to tell. I just think it's hard to judge a guy who took over a very favorable situation. He has enormous talent, resources, and unlimited budget. His biggest job is just to not mess it up so I guess this year was OK? Same with Lincoln Riley. What exactly has he ever done? Riley's defenses have, for all intents and purposes, sucked. He was embarrassed in the Peach Bowl, lost to a very average Kansas State team this year, Texas last year. The Big 12 just isn't very good. So I guess he's succeeded, so far, in just not messing things up. But as a HC, I'm not entirely impressed with what he's done. Congrats to Lincoln for being awesome at drawing up some awesome plays on the old chalkboard.

I am not the biggest Lincoln Riley fan. I think he is a very good offensive mind, but his teams have been on dimensional, with zero defense to speak of. For the most part he has feasted on a league that really has no other team playing at a competitive level.

I think, and its not a shot at Urban, OSU may be in better hands with Day. I think Urban got to the point where his offense was somewhat stale and he held on to some under-performing assistants for way too long. Day is more visionary on offense at this point in his career, and he brought in a new fresh face to examine the staff. I know Day is primarily offense, but he has talked a lot about the type of defense he wants to run, its "his" defense, and any coordinator is going to have to buy into his defensive mindset.

As long as he recruits, he will be fine as a coach. He passed his first test this season, passed his first recruiting test this year, and seems to have things rolling. Maybe he is a flash in the pan, maybe he falls on his face, but right now he has things rolling. He took over for Urban, kept the recruiting in tact, and ushered in a new offensive and defensive scheme.

[North]

LSU defers and will kick off to Clemson.

[adkindo]

not sure Clemson is prepared for the speed of this LSU defense early....they will need to adjust

[North]

Andrew Whitworth is on the LSU sideline. Are you watching the game, Mike Brown? :p

[adkindo]

Sunshine....get back in there!

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[Roy Tucker]

I guess the refs are letting the DBs grab and pull and push.

[Bob Sheed]

That Hippie QB looks better than the Home Alone QB.

[Hillsdale87]

I guess the refs are letting the DBs grab and pull and push.

They also didn't call targeting on Higgins on that helmet to helmet blind side block


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[adkindo]

TD Clemson

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[Bob Sheed]

https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Frobcain%2Ffiles%2F2017%2F10%2F Kevin-Home-Alone.jpg

[dubc47834]

They also didn't call targeting on Higgins on that helmet to helmet blind side block


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And so it begins!

[adkindo]

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[Bob Sheed]

Touchdown, LSU...

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[adkindo]

LSU scores...

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[dubc47834]

I do like Burrows "been there done that" attitude after the TD

[adkindo]

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c4/4e/48/c44e485dafa10e0bf6fbc3728c637495.gif

[BuckeyeRed27]

Don’t have a feel for this game yet.

[Bob Sheed]

Another 3 and out for Clemson...

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[Hillsdale87]

Lawrence is so good. I didn't watch him much this year, but I knew he was athletic. I didn't realize to this level. His quickness and change of direction ability are impressive. And of course he throw it a bit too...

He and Fields are going to be compared a lot next year. Fields is considered the more mobile QB, but I'm not sure there's too wide of a gap there. Lawrence is a great runner.


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[BuckeyeRed27]

Real battle of sneaky fast quarterbacks who are definitely faster than they look. Probably have a high motor.

[Roy Tucker]

Clemson DBs are not giving much for Burrow to throw to.

[Hillsdale87]

Well I was very wrong about this game. It's still early, but it looks like the 2 best teams played on 12/28. We'll see if Burrow can work some magic, but Clemson appears much faster than LSU


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[North]

Clemson DBs are not giving much for Burrow to throw to.

They are a grabby bunch.

[adkindo]

Well I was very wrong about this game. It's still early, but it looks like the 2 best teams played on 12/28. We'll see if Burrow can work some magic, but Clemson appears much faster than LSU


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all 4 of the best teams was supposed to play on 12/28 ;)

[Roy Tucker]

They are a grabby bunch.

Agreed.

Nice call on the Burrow TD run.

[Boston Red]

Over looks good. Feel like Clemson could get there by themselves.

[Boston Red]

Well, that's targeting.

[Roy Tucker]

Not sure how that’s a clean hit.

[North]

Shades of PGH and BAL db's against Chad Johnson...

[Roy Tucker]

Nor how that isn’t offsides.

Sometimes I feel like I see a different game from the refs and announcers. And I have no dog in this hunt.

[ScotlandRed]

Burrow getting going a bit now

[Hillsdale87]

Well I was very wrong about this game. It's still early, but it looks like the 2 best teams played on 12/28. We'll see if Burrow can work some magic, but Clemson appears much faster than LSU


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And it appears like I was wrong again [emoji23]


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[Roy Tucker]

Nice touch by Burrow. He has his mojo going now.

Bengals are crazy if they don’t draft him.

[adkindo]

feel like LSU took Clemson's best punch.....and LSU is about to roll

[adkindo]

no catch

[Playadlc]

I tell ya, it’s hard to wrap my head around Joe Burrow playing in Cincinnati.

The kid is truly a generational talent.

[Boston Red]

I tell ya, it’s hard to wrap my head around Joe Burrow playing in Cincinnati.

The kid is truly a generational talent.

What's that mean, exactly? He's like a year older than Lamar Jackson. Different skill sets, but you can't have two generational QBs a year apart can you?

[Sea Ray]

Is that former USC head coach John Robinson behind Coach O on the LSU sideline?

[RedTeamGo!]

I tell ya, it’s hard to wrap my head around Joe Burrow playing in Cincinnati.

The kid is truly a generational talent.

I just don’t see how a dude that has had exactly 1 good year in college (a season in which he is older than everyone else) is a slam dunk generational talent.

I think the Bengals need to take him and he’s very good, but come on, people are acting like he’s Peyton Manning.

[Sea Ray]

I tell ya, it’s hard to wrap my head around Joe Burrow playing in Cincinnati.

The kid is truly a generational talent.

The Bengals are so fortunate to have the number one pick this year. About time we get a break

[adkindo]

I just don’t see how a dude that has had exactly 1 good year in college (a season in which he is older than everyone else) is a slam dunk generational talent.

I think the Bengals need to take him and he’s very good, but come on, people are acting like he’s Peyton Manning.

it happens almost every year....2 years ago after a half of football, some people were claiming that Tua was the greatest talent ever seen

[Playadlc]

What's that mean, exactly? He's like a year older than Lamar Jackson. Different skill sets, but you can't have two generational QBs a year apart can you?

Ha ha. That’s true. I just mean that Joe Burrow’s don’t come around very often.

He’s at Andrew Luck level hype right now.

[Redhook]

2 hour+ first half. First time ever?

[Roy Tucker]

Burrow looks like he’s hurting.

[North]

Burrow looks like he’s hurting.

Bit of a hitch in his step.

[Roy Tucker]

Did I hear that right? Did they say LSU had 269 yards of offense in the 2nd quarter? Jeez

[Ohayou]

I just don’t see how a dude that has had exactly 1 good year in college (a season in which he is older than everyone else) is a slam dunk generational talent.

I think the Bengals need to take him and he’s very good, but come on, people are acting like he’s Peyton Manning.

Good is an understatement. He's playing the greatest college football season ever, IMO, and not just by a QB.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Burrow's touch is amazing.

He throws a beautiful deep ball.

He's elusive as a runner.

He's smart.

What more could you want?

[BuckeyeRed27]

Clemson panicked after those deep balls, changed whatever they were doing and now can’t stop anything.

Oh and their LBs were horrendous in the 2Q.

[paintmered]

Burrow's touch is amazing.

He throws a beautiful deep ball.

He's elusive as a runner.

He's smart.

What more could you want?

He's a local boy.

[Roy Tucker]

Herschel Walker looks like he could he could still play. Archie Griffin and Roger Staubach look pretty good too. And Jim Brown is a warrior.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Herschel Walker looks like he could he could still play. Archie Griffin and Roger Staubach look pretty good too. And Jim Brown is a warrior.

I mean seriously. Herschel is a robot.

[Boston Red]

Clemson has to score here...so that I can stay awake mostly!

[Roy Tucker]

Clemson has to score here...so that I can stay awake mostly!

No kidding. This game is going till 1 am.

[Boston Red]

Ok, this is starting to feel like a developing classic.

[North]

LSU OC needs to call some quick outs. Clemson keeps pouring in.

[ScotlandRed]

Ok, this is starting to feel like a developing classic.

Came to post this. Clemson come out firing just like first half and LSU a bit slow out the gates.

[Boston Red]

Burrow is suddenly mortal.

Clemson should really be dancing in the end zone with a lead right now.

[Hillsdale87]

Burrow is suddenly mortal.

His ribs are a problem. He's clearly trying to avoid hits. On that sack he just went down when guys got near him. LSU may have to add some protection because I'm not sure he's going to be able to evade the pressure like normal


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[Roy Tucker]

How is that not targeting?

[RedTeamGo!]

This would normally be called targeting, but it’s a Clemson player so it probably will not.

[Boston Red]

How is that not targeting?

Apparently it is.

[Hillsdale87]

Targeting is a stupid rule, but that's targeting. Sucks for that guy. Getting thrown out for that is terrible. Bad play but not dirty


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[Boston Red]

Imagine getting tossed from a championship game. Ouch.

[RedTeamGo!]

Imagine getting kicked out of the biggest game of your life for doing something you’ve been encouraged to do for most of your life.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I absolutely hate the targeting rule. They absolutely have to change it. You can’t be kicking players out for hits like that. You just can’t.

[RedTeamGo!]

All this talk about Burrow...how about some Lawrence talk.

Has looked very human against two best teams he has faced this year.

[Hillsdale87]

That PI was weak


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[RedTeamGo!]

This game is Ovah. LSU’s defense clamped down.

[Reds Freak]

Imagine getting kicked out of the biggest game of your life for doing something you’ve been encouraged to do for most of your life.

I'm not sure it should result in a DQ, but if a coach ever taught him to tackle like that, he should be permanently banned from coaching.

[Boston Red]

This Clemson punter is awful.

[Roy Tucker]

I’m not a fan of the rule calling for an ejection for a first time targeting offense. Too many games get fundamentally changed by it. I get the reason for it but I think it’s too harsh. Second time, ok. Or keep track over multiple games.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I’m not a fan of the rule calling for an ejection for a first time targeting offense. Too many games get fundamentally changed by it. I get the reason for it but I think it’s too harsh. Second time, ok. Or keep track over multiple games.

Yep it should be like a red card yellow card situation in soccer. Sometimes there are those hits that are just dirty and that’s that. But most of them aren’t.

[North]

Lousy penalty call on that so-called out of bounds hit by LSU.

[Boston Red]

This one appears to be history. Clemson needs to score REAL fast here to give themselves any hope.

[Reds Freak]

Yep it should be like a red card yellow card situation in soccer. Sometimes there are those hits that are just dirty and that’s that. But most of them aren’t.

I like this. Two yellow cards and you're done for the game. Five yellows over the course of the season and you're suspended for the next game.

[Roy Tucker]

Burrow pretty consistently puts the ball where his receiver can make a play on it but the defensive player can’t. I used to think he was lucky but he consistently does it and does it against high end opponents. Like tonight.

[ScotlandRed]

That’s a horrible call

[Roy Tucker]

I don’t get what is and isn’t PI any more.

[Reds Freak]

DP

[Hillsdale87]

Yikes that was a bad PI call. Refs again having a huge impact. Then again I thought the PI they called that took away the LSU INT was weak, so I guess that makes it even.


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[Roy Tucker]

I think that call killed Clemson’s last chance. Don’t see them coming back now.

[Redsfaithful]

I just can't believe this kid is going to be a Bengal. It speaks to the history of the franchise, but still, I'll say it, this is one of the best nights I've ever had as a Bengals fan.

[Sea Ray]

This one appears to be history. Clemson needs to score REAL fast here to give themselves any hope.


Yikes that was a bad PI call. Refs again having a huge impact. Then again I thought the PI they called that took away the LSU INT was weak, so I guess that makes it even.


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No, that was an excellent call. The offensive player grab the jersey of the defensive player and threw them out of the way

[RedTeamGo!]

Trevor Lawrence has not looked like an NFL QB at all the past two games.

[BuckeyeRed27]

No, that was an excellent call. The offensive player grab the jersey of the defensive player and threw them out of the way

Eh seemed like the defensive player initiated the contact and the Clemson player was coming back to the ball. I think they missed it, although before replay I thought it looked like OPI.

[Hillsdale87]

No, that was an excellent call. The offensive player grab the jersey of the defensive player and threw them out of the way

There was contact, but it was on both sides. Not that it necessarily means anything, but every college football writer/personality on Twitter was criticizing the call.


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[BuckeyeRed27]

Trevor Lawrence has not looked like an NFL QB at all the past two games.

Yeah I thought he was pick LSU apart, but he’s struggled mightily since the 2Q.

[Sea Ray]

Congrats to LSU. They’re clearly the best team this year. They’ve shown it time and time again by going undefeated with their schedule

[ScotlandRed]

Too much hero ball from Lawrence there. Slide.

[ScotlandRed]

What are people’s opinion on Lawrence now? He’s had a slight sophomore slump but there’s every chance he bounces back next year. No longer a lock at this moment for number one overall next year though.

[Roy Tucker]

I think Lawrence is a very good QB but was surrounded by NFL level talent last year and not so much this year. Just like this year LSU gets an NFL assistant coach to design the offense and suddenly he looks like Tom Brady.

[Redsfaithful]

Ohio State would have made for a better game (LSU beats them too though I think, I'm not saying different), but the first half was fun. Joe Burrow is all world!

[membengal]

I just can't believe this kid is going to be a Bengal. It speaks to the history of the franchise, but still, I'll say it, this is one of the best nights I've ever had as a Bengals fan.

This.

[Roy Tucker]

I don’t think Joe Burrow will ever have to buy a drink in New Orleans for the rest of his life.

[Sea Ray]

This.

If the Bengals were really smart (we know what the answer is to that) they'd bring in Joe Brady to coordinate the offense for Burrow and the team

[Sea Ray]

I don’t think Joe Burrow will ever have to buy a drink in New Orleans for the rest of his life.



Probably not but he'll also be able to pay for endless drinks for life too

[GAC]

I just can't believe this kid is going to be a Bengal. It speaks to the history of the franchise, but still, I'll say it, this is one of the best nights I've ever had as a Bengals fan.

I bet there haven't been that many people glued to their TVs (Bengal fans) since the Beatles were on Ed Sullivan! LOL

[Sea Ray]

Kudos to the Bowl committee for getting it right. In hindsight they correctly seeded the top 4 teams. I think OSU was a tad better than Clemson even after seeing their head to head game. But LSU was clearly #1 and they showed us this over and over

[Sea Ray]

I bet there haven't been that many people glued to their TVs (Bengal fans) since the Beatles were on Ed Sullivan! LOL

Nope, unlike some teams, the Bengals have been to two Super Bowls since Ed Sullivan. There were more Bengal fans with their eyes glued to the tv then.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I think Lawrence is a very good QB but was surrounded by NFL level talent last year and not so much this year. Just like this year LSU gets an NFL assistant coach to design the offense and suddenly he looks like Tom Brady.

I also think Clemson having a terrible schedule and not playing anyone for three months really hurt Lawrence against OSU and LSU. He was having a lot of trouble with the defensive speed because he hadn’t seen any in a year.

[WVRed]

What are people’s opinion on Lawrence now? He’s had a slight sophomore slump but there’s every chance he bounces back next year. No longer a lock at this moment for number one overall next year though.

He’ll be fine.

He’s a long haired more athletic Peyton Manning. The only other QB I’d debate taking over Burrow.

It’ll be between him and Fields next year and I’d look at Haskins to dictate how much success Fields has (system QB).

[Sea Ray]

I think it's time we forever dismiss ESPN's power index. We might have just witnessed the best season ever in college football yet ESPN's algorithm shows LSU as just the 3rd best team this yr:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

There's no excuse for that. I'll remember this and never take their team rankings seriously again

[RedsBaron]

I think it's time we forever dismiss ESPN's power index. We might have just witnessed the best season ever in college football yet ESPN's algorithm shows LSU as just the 3rd best team this yr:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

There's no excuse for that. I'll remember this and never take their team rankings seriously again
I don't take ESPN seriously about much of anything.
LSU was the best team in college football, period.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I think it's time we forever dismiss ESPN's power index. We might have just witnessed the best season ever in college football yet ESPN's algorithm shows LSU as just the 3rd best team this yr:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

There's no excuse for that. I'll remember this and never take their team rankings seriously again

Their relative defense weakness throughout the season is why it’s coming up like that.

Clemson is over inflated because of a weak conference in those rankings. And OSU/LSU is basically a toss up, which that more or less says.

[Boston Red]

OSU/LSU is basically a toss up

I appreciate that you're willing to die on this hill for your team.

[Sea Ray]

Their relative defense weakness throughout the season is why it’s coming up like that.

Clemson is over inflated because of a weak conference in those rankings. And OSU/LSU is basically a toss up, which that more or less says.

There's a problem with the algorithm. It shouldn't be based on numbers so much as results since there are very few common teams amongst Clemson, OSU and LSU. 7 top ten wins and an undefeated season should have more weight.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I appreciate that you're willing to die on this hill for your team.

I’m not taking anything away from LSU. Just saying in real life you play one game. If OSU and LSU played 1000 times they both probably win around 500, which I don’t think is that controversial, and that’s what that algorithm is attempting to measure.

[Sea Ray]

I appreciate that you're willing to die on this hill for your team.

Clemson-OSU is a toss up as we all saw. Last night's game wasn't a blow out but it wasn't a toss up either

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I’m not taking anything away from LSU. Just saying in real life you play one game. If OSU and LSU played 1000 times they both probably win around 500, which I don’t think is that controversial, and that’s what that algorithm is attempting to measure.

The algorithm is screwed up. LSU does much better than 500 in that scenario.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Clemson-OSU is a toss up as we all saw. Last night's game wasn't a blow out but it wasn't a toss up either

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The algorithm is screwed up. LSU does much better than 500 in that scenario.

I don’t think Clemson/OSU is a toss up. It’s probably more like 2 out of 3 to OSU and LSU/Clemson is probably similar, maybe 3 out of 4.

And just from a stats standpoint you can’t have a predictive algorithm also include actual outcomes because then you are trying to prove a known data point. You could have it as a factor, but you can’t weight it heavily because it over powers the other data.

Ok I’ll get off my stat nerd soap box.

[Sea Ray]

I don’t think Clemson/OSU is a toss up. It’s probably more like 2 out of 3 to OSU and LSU/Clemson is probably similar, maybe 3 out of 4.

And just from a stats standpoint you can’t have a predictive algorithm also include actual outcomes because then you are trying to prove a known data point. You could have it as a factor, but you can’t weight it heavily because it over powers the other data.

Ok I’ll get off my stat nerd soap box.

Results should power over other data. We saw on the field that OSU-Clemson was a toss up. Your feeling that OSU wins 2 of 3 shows your OSU bias.

LSU has proven time and time again that they're clearly the best. Any algorithm that shows them as #3 is screwed up

[BuckeyeRed27]

Results should power over other data. We saw on the field that OSU-Clemson was a toss up. Your feeling that OSU wins 2 of 3 shows your OSU bias.

LSU has proven time and time again that they're clearly the best. Any algorithm that shows them as #3 is screwed up

But not in predictive statistics. I know it sounds a little ridiculous, but those algorithms are trying to predict results not use them. It’s obviously not perfect because LSU won and that’s why they play the games. But from a stats standpoint it’s just a data point. It doesn’t make the model wrong per se. College football is hard too because of sample size, which is part of the reason that baseball stats and advanced metrics are much better at predicting outcomes than football models for sure.

[Sea Ray]

I should have known that any algorithm that shows Ohio State as #1 would be a OK around here. Silly me...

[Sea Ray]

But not in predictive statistics. I know it sounds a little ridiculous, but those algorithms are trying to predict results not use them. It’s obviously not perfect because LSU won and that’s why they play the games. But from a stats standpoint it’s just a data point. It doesn’t make the model wrong per se. College football is hard too because of sample size, which is part of the reason that baseball stats and advanced metrics are much better at predicting outcomes than football models for sure.

If its purpose is to predict results then it's a failure. Clemson beat OSU and LSU beat Clemson.

You took a different route but your point also showed that it's a failed algorithm

[BuckeyeRed27]

I should have known that any algorithm that shows Ohio State as #1 would be a OK around here. Silly me...

I don’t care who is 1 in the model, just explaining how it works.

[oregonred]

LSU final three game run was similar to the 2014 Buckeye team that rolled Wisconsin, Bama and Oregon. Don't think anyone was going to beat either team in that run. Before that they gave up a lot of points to Bama, Miss and others

Lightning in a bottle and talent peaking at the right time. Burrow was historically unreal and the entire team fed off his confidence

OSU (Fields) gutted it out but was not the same down the stretch after taking the kneel down hit vs. Penn State

Now up to Mike Brown to protect and provide Burrow the WR/TE weapons needed at all costs. Phenomenal luck to have Burrow fall into the Bengals lap at this time in the franchise history

[BuckeyeRed27]

If its purpose is to predict results then it's a failure. Clemson beat OSU and LSU beat Clemson.

You took a different route but your point also showed that it's a failed algorithm

Right those are individual data points, they played one game. Are you suggesting that if those teams played again the results would be the same? We see it in the NFL all the time where teams play each other multiple times with different results.

[Sea Ray]

Right those are individual data points, they played one game. Are you suggesting that if those teams played again the results would be the same? We see it in the NFL all the time where teams play each other multiple times with different results.

I'm suggesting that Clemson and OSU are very evenly matched and that LSU is a step better than Clemson

[Caveat Emperor]

I just don’t see how a dude that has had exactly 1 good year in college (a season in which he is older than everyone else) is a slam dunk generational talent.

I think the Bengals need to take him and he’s very good, but come on, people are acting like he’s Peyton Manning.

Decent college comp for him (in terms of career trajectory) would be Carson Palmer. Pedestrian stats for his career and then blew up as a senior and rocketed up to the #1 overall pick. I think most Bengals fans would be *very* happy to get Palmer 2.0 -- especially if this version can avoid a career-changing fluke knee injury.

I watched a lot of LSU this year, and Burrow is the goods. During that game last night (and during the season, if you to compare Lawrence and Burrow), there was one player running a full NFL-style spread offense (with line adjustments, check-with-me audibles, and route progressions) and another player running a more college-like offense. The player running the NFL offense, coached by a former NFL offensive assistant in Joe Brady, was running circles around his competition. He was making NFL-style throws into tight windows and recognizing that the "open" guy might be the one with single coverage and a step.

I haven't seen a QB play this style, this effectively, in forever. Probably since Jameis Winston at FSU -- except, unlike Jameis, Burrow is incredibly stingy with the football and doesn't beat himself with mistakes.

[Hillsdale87]

It’ll be between him and Fields next year and I’d look at Haskins to dictate how much success Fields has (system QB).

Looking at Haskins should be a very small part in the evaluation of Fields. They're very different players.

Day runs a complicated offense that translates to the NFL. It's not like the Urban Meyer style offenses that didn't require NFL throws. Fields has top-level arm strength and elite athleticism. His biggest issue is holding onto the ball too long at times, and he needs to get better at that next year, but hopefully that comes with experience. He's probably not as good as Lawrence, but I'll be shocked if he's not a high end 1st round pick next year.

[Sea Ray]

People remember the knee injury to Carson Palmer but what gets overlooked is that he had a (partially) torn elbow ligament and that's a bigger deal for a powerful pocket QB than a knee. He opted for no TJ surgery and that may or may not have been the right call.

As for Joe Burrow, the Bengals finally stumbled on some luck. Most college QB Heisman winners are "college" QBs who excel at the college game. These include guys like Tebow, Vince Young (I know he finished second to Reggie Bush), Murray, Manziel, RG3 , Troy Smith and I'll even include Lamar Jackson here as his passing skills were suspect coming out of college. This year's Heisman winner has skills like accuracy, size, smarts, field vision, mobility...everything an NFL team covets except rocket arm. And the Bengals get him!

I also really like what Joe Burrow gives us between the ears. Did you see how calm he was in that post game interview last night? How do you think Baker Mayfield would be in that circumstance? His answers don't include "umm, like or you know". He comes from a well grounded Ohio family. This couldn't have worked out better for the Bengals.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Burrow will be a remarkably interesting player to follow.

He's the best college QB I've ever seen. His season is the best, arguably, in the history of college football.

Is that scheme? Other incredibly talented players around him? A fluke?

No clue. But it'll be fun to watch.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yikes, footage of Odell Beckham Jr giving hundreds of dollars to LSU players. It’s the SEC so they probably won’t get in trouble, but wow, imagine what’s going on behind closed doors if they are doing that in the open.

[Hillsdale87]

Yikes, footage of Odell Beckham Jr giving hundreds of dollars to LSU players. It’s the SEC so they probably won’t get in trouble, but wow, imagine what’s going on behind closed doors if they are doing that in the open.

Is it ok to give money to players who are seniors, and thus done with their college careers?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Boston Red]

Is it ok to give money to players who are seniors, and thus done with their college careers?


Yes

[bucksfan2]

-Palmer was a highly rated QB coming out of High School if I remember correctly. Wasn't he also like a 3 year starter at USC? While Burrow was a nice prospect, I don't think he is similar to that of Palmer. What Burrow did is pretty remarkable.

-Trevor Lawrence gets a ton of love, but I was not impressed with him this post season. He did most of his damage with his legs, something I don't think he can do at the next level. I think he is a better athlete than many think he is, but Clemsons vaunted passing game was kinda blah.

-The targeting call on the Clemson LB is exactly the type of play that doesn't belong in football. He launched himself head first at a WR who was in the midst of being tackled. I think targeting is something done with good intentions but has gotten out of control. I don't think that LB should have been kicked out of the game, but that is the kind of hit that doesn't belong in football anymore.

-Next year the Heisman will be decided between Fields and Lawrence. Fields has the opportunity to play in more big games, but Clemson will play maybe one team who can give them a game.

-Will Ed Orgeron become Gene Chizik? Joe Brady came in and revolutionized LSU's offense, what happens when he leaves?

-Man am I going to miss college football.

[Caveat Emperor]

-Palmer was a highly rated QB coming out of High School if I remember correctly. Wasn't he also like a 3 year starter at USC? While Burrow was a nice prospect, I don't think he is similar to that of Palmer. What Burrow did is pretty remarkable.

Palmer was pretty highly regarded (5 star recruit) as opposed to Burrow (3 star, I think), but just looking at career comps they're both guys who had pedestrian numbers and then absolutely balled as seniors. Their junior year numbers are actually remarkably similar:

PALMER


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2001 USC Pac-10 JR QB 12 221 377 58.6 2717 7.2 6.5 13 12 124.2
*2002 USC Pac-10 SR QB 13 309 489 63.2 3942 8.1 8.5 33 10 149.1

BURROW:


*2018 LSU SEC JR QB 13 219 379 57.8 2894 7.6 7.9 16 5 133.2
*2019 LSU SEC SR QB 15 402 527 76.3 5671 10.8 12.5 60 6 202.0

[Sea Ray]

Palmer was pretty highly regarded (5 star recruit) as opposed to Burrow (3 star, I think), but just looking at career comps they're both guys who had pedestrian numbers and then absolutely balled as seniors. Their junior year numbers are actually remarkably similar:

PALMER


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2001 USC Pac-10 JR QB 12 221 377 58.6 2717 7.2 6.5 13 12 124.2
*2002 USC Pac-10 SR QB 13 309 489 63.2 3942 8.1 8.5 33 10 149.1

BURROW:


*2018 LSU SEC JR QB 13 219 379 57.8 2894 7.6 7.9 16 5 133.2
*2019 LSU SEC SR QB 15 402 527 76.3 5671 10.8 12.5 60 6 202.0

A big difference is interceptions. Palmer threw more INTs than TDs his soph/Jr yrs combined

[dubc47834]

Really 2 things...arm strength and he's only done it 1 season.

Time to eat some crow...boy was I wrong!!!

[ScotlandRed]

To whoever wanted Joe Brady with the Bengals, it seems as though he is off to the Panthers.

[RedTeamGo!]

Palmer was pretty highly regarded (5 star recruit) as opposed to Burrow (3 star, I think), but just looking at career comps they're both guys who had pedestrian numbers and then absolutely balled as seniors. Their junior year numbers are actually remarkably similar:

PALMER


Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2001 USC Pac-10 JR QB 12 221 377 58.6 2717 7.2 6.5 13 12 124.2
*2002 USC Pac-10 SR QB 13 309 489 63.2 3942 8.1 8.5 33 10 149.1

BURROW:


*2018 LSU SEC JR QB 13 219 379 57.8 2894 7.6 7.9 16 5 133.2
*2019 LSU SEC SR QB 15 402 527 76.3 5671 10.8 12.5 60 6 202.0

Burrow was a 4 star according to 247sports, which is only ranking site that matters.

[Sea Ray]

Yikes, footage of Odell Beckham Jr giving hundreds of dollars to LSU players. It’s the SEC so they probably won’t get in trouble, but wow, imagine what’s going on behind closed doors if they are doing that in the open.

I don't think it was real money


LSU’s story in the aftermath of a viral video showing Browns receiver (and former LSU standout) Odell Beckham Jr. handing out cash to LSU players after Monday night’s national championship victory over Clemson is that the money was fake.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/14/odell-beckham-hands-out-cash-to-lsu-players-and-lsu-quickly-claims-it-was-fake/

[Redsfaithful]

Decent college comp for him (in terms of career trajectory) would be Carson Palmer. Pedestrian stats for his career and then blew up as a senior and rocketed up to the #1 overall pick. I think most Bengals fans would be *very* happy to get Palmer 2.0 -- especially if this version can avoid a career-changing fluke knee injury.

For sure, Palmer was up there with Manning and Brady in 2015. It never felt like the Bengals were out of a game with him, even with the bad defense they had that year, and that was just his second season.

I do hope Burrow is better, and I think he has the potential to be, but Palmer was a franchise QB and top 5 NFL QB until injury issues which I'd definitely take.

[Sea Ray]

For sure, Palmer was up there with Manning and Brady in 2015. It never felt like the Bengals were out of a game with him, even with the bad defense they had that year, and that was just his second season.

I do hope Burrow is better, and I think he has the potential to be, but Palmer was a franchise QB and top 5 NFL QB until injury issues which I'd definitely take.

You mean 2005? I know...it's early in the morning.

Here's my list of issues during the Palmer years and none of them were "his fault:

1) Blown up knee
2) Torn elbow ligament
3) Retirement of Rich Braham
4) Injuries and early retirement of Levi Jones
5) Long snapper issues. One yr we couldn't execute snaps for FGs and that alone led to our missing the playoffs

Are these things bringing up bad memories? Hopefully Burrow signals a change in our luck

[RedTeamGo!]

I don't think it was real money



https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/14/odell-beckham-hands-out-cash-to-lsu-players-and-lsu-quickly-claims-it-was-fake/

Lol right

[Sea Ray]

Lol right

It didn't look real to me

[Redsfaithful]

You mean 2005?

Yep, big typo.

And I agree on your list, I think if Palmer had stayed as healthy as Andy Dalton he'd have been a Hall of Fame type.

[bucksfan2]

Yep, big typo.

And I agree on your list, I think if Palmer had stayed as healthy as Andy Dalton he'd have been a Hall of Fame type.

There was something about Palmer, maybe it was the way he exited Cincinnati, that I thought he was missing. It may have been Marvin, it may have been innate in Carson, but it always seemed like the elite QB's were making one more play than Palmer did. I thought Palmer was good, almost great, but man there was just something missing that put him over the top.

[Sea Ray]

There was something about Palmer, maybe it was the way he exited Cincinnati, that I thought he was missing. It may have been Marvin, it may have been innate in Carson, but it always seemed like the elite QB's were making one more play than Palmer did. I thought Palmer was good, almost great, but man there was just something missing that put him over the top.

I agree. Palmer had great physical skills but he never had that it factor that Russell Wilson exudes so well. As for his exit, I don't like how he bashed the Brown family seeing as the bulk of his problems were injury related. History shows he left a winning team. The team went to the playoffs five straight yrs after he left so it's hard to make the case that MB didn't build a team that could win

[Sea Ray]

This interview with Joe Burrow makes it sound like the money OBJ was giving out was not fake:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/lsu-football/joe-burrow-discusses-odell-beckham-jr-handing-out-money-to-lsu-players/

[IslandRed]

-Trevor Lawrence gets a ton of love, but I was not impressed with him this post season. He did most of his damage with his legs, something I don't think he can do at the next level. I think he is a better athlete than many think he is, but Clemsons vaunted passing game was kinda blah.

Yeah, he was a lot better last postseason. I've watched several Clemson games the last two years, I don't remember him ever being scattershot like that. It's the kind of thing that makes you wonder if he was hurt, but everyone's hurting by that time of year, so... Also, they never did seem to find a reliable third option this season to go with Higgins and Ross. Last year there was Hunter Renfrow as a security blanket working the middle of the field, especially on third down. This year, both Ohio State and LSU had an elite-plus corner who could shut down one of the WR1s (usually Ross), allowing them to give the other corner some help over the top, and nobody else was getting open consistently unless Lawrence got out of the pocket and bought extra time.

Anyway, good for LSU, they were clearly the best team this year.

[ScotlandRed]

OBJ has somehow managed to make this all about him. I really don’t like him.

[GAC]

OBJ has somehow managed to make this all about him. I really don’t like him.

And possibly opens up an investigation by walking around on the sidelines handing LSU players cash! LOL

[North]

..."New Orleans police on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on a complaint of simple battery.

Video surfaced this week showing Beckham slapping the buttocks of a Superdome security guard in the LSU locker room after the Tigers' national championship victory over Clemson on Monday in New Orleans.

According to records obtained by NOLA.com, the security guard had been telling LSU players to put out cigars in the locker room before he was slapped."..

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28496532/new-orleans-police-issue-arrest-warrant-browns-odell-beckham-jr

[GAC]

So he slapped a male security guard on the buttocks in a men's locker-room, in jest, and gets an arrest warrant for assault. Ridiculous IMO.

[North]

So he slapped a male security guard on the buttocks in a men's locker-room, in jest, and gets an arrest warrant for assault. Ridiculous IMO.

I agree. OBJ is a specimen,, but you and me are from a different era of sensibilities. What you and I would laugh off is now a terrible diss worthy of national exposure.

[bucksfan2]

I agree. OBJ is a specimen,, but you and me are from a different era of sensibilities. What you and I would laugh off is now a terrible diss worthy of national exposure.

OBJ is a clown. He made LSU winning the title about him as much as he could. From handing players fake but non fake money, interrupting Coach O in the locker room, being on a megaphone trying to direct the band to play something, and now getting in trouble for slapping a cop on the rear.

In all reality, this is a non story, but you like a richard and you will get in trouble.

[Todd Gack]

So he slapped a male security guard on the buttocks in a men's locker-room, in jest, and gets an arrest warrant for assault. Ridiculous IMO.

Dude, he deserved it just out of sheer stupidity.

[North]

OBJ is a clown. He made LSU winning the title about him as much as he could. From handing players fake but non fake money, interrupting Coach O in the locker room, being on a megaphone trying to direct the band to play something, and now getting in trouble for slapping a cop on the rear.

In all reality, this is a non story, but you like a richard and you will get in trouble.

Like I said, he's a real piece of work. He hit a guard on the fanny. If today's norms applied to me in my youth, I would have been slapped in irons for tossing a snowball and jailed for using a peashooter. If a bunch of kids snowballed a bus today, the SWAT team would be called out. Our parents definitely would have died in prison. :D