2021 NFL Draft

[ScotlandRed]

Now that the non playoff draft positions are locked in it seems like a decent time for a draft thread. Can still discuss in the Bengals thread but that should probably be used more for coaching changes, free agency etc.

Can discuss the wider profile of the draft here. Please merge if there is already a draft thread.

The way I see it the top 5 looks something like this.

Jax - Lawrence
Jets - Justin Fields
Miami (via Hou) - Jamaar Chase
Carolina (trade up) - Zach Wilson
Bengals - Penei Sewell

Now that’s manoeuvred to get Sewell to us, however I don’t think that’s too much of a reach. Atlanta may want to keep the pick for a QB themselves, they may not want to trade the pick within the division.

It’s a fascinating top 5.

[JaxRed]

If I'm Miami and want a WR, I trade down a few spots. There are a lot of top WR's in this class. But I just glanced at 2 mocks and they both had Sewell to Miami. What would be REALLY interesting is if Miami pulled an Arizona and decided after one season that Tua wasn't the guy and went after Wilson.

[Assembly Hall]

If I'm Miami and want a WR, I trade down a few spots. There are a lot of top WR's in this class. But I just glanced at 2 mocks and they both had Sewell to Miami. What would be REALLY interesting is if Miami pulled an Arizona and decided after one season that Tua wasn't the guy and went after Wilson.

I have wondered that myself with Miami and Tua. That would be something.

[WVRed]

Now that the non playoff draft positions are locked in it seems like a decent time for a draft thread. Can still discuss in the Bengals thread but that should probably be used more for coaching changes, free agency etc.

Can discuss the wider profile of the draft here. Please merge if there is already a draft thread.

The way I see it the top 5 looks something like this.

Jax - Lawrence
Jets - Justin Fields
Miami (via Hou) - Jamaar Chase
Carolina (trade up) - Zach Wilson
Bengals - Penei Sewell

Now that’s manoeuvred to get Sewell to us, however I don’t think that’s too much of a reach. Atlanta may want to keep the pick for a QB themselves, they may not want to trade the pick within the division.

It’s a fascinating top 5.

I could be wrong but I don’t see the Falcons helping a division rival acquire a QB when they could possibly take one themselves.

Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta tries to move up to secure one of Lawrence or Fields. They would have to blow Jacksonville away for it to happen but it’s been done before (Michael Vick) and both QBs hail from the Peach State.

[WVRed]

If I'm Miami and want a WR, I trade down a few spots. There are a lot of top WR's in this class. But I just glanced at 2 mocks and they both had Sewell to Miami. What would be REALLY interesting is if Miami pulled an Arizona and decided after one season that Tua wasn't the guy and went after Wilson.

The Jets and Dolphins both are in prime positions to trade down. Just depends on if the Jets decide to go QB or not. I don’t think Tua has done anything to make Miami want to move on after one year. There’s no Kyler Murray or immaturity issues to reconsider the decision.

[Hillsdale87]

The Jets and Dolphins both are in prime positions to trade down. Just depends on if the Jets decide to go QB or not. I don’t think Tua has done anything to make Miami want to move on after one year. There’s no Kyler Murray or immaturity issues to reconsider the decision.

If I was the Dolphins I would think very hard about taking a QB at 3. Tua has done nothing to show that he's going to be a good NFL QB. It could still happen, but the Dolphins are good enough that they're not going to have a chance to pick high for a while, so passing on a potential franchise QB is a risk. It doesn't matter how good the rest of the team is if the QB is bad. it's pretty clear that Fitzpatrick is much better than him right now.

Tua either doesn't have the ability to read defenses and anticipate throws, or he just doesn't have the confidence to pressure the defense. Either way, that should be very concerning to the Dolphins organization, especially when you see how much better Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts looked this year. As a very amateur draft analyst, my concern with Tua was that he looked like the best player in the world against bad defenses, but legit defenses made him look ordinary to bad. He's extremely accurate, but when guys weren't running open, he struggled. The Georgia and Clemson games from his sophomore year are a perfect example. That has carried over to this year where he's basically a checkdown specialist.

I think there's a chance that the first 4 picks are all QBs. The first 2 picks seem almost certain to be QBs. The Dolphins and Falcons are a toss up, but both will be thinking about it. Falcons are getting a new coach, Matt Ryan will be 36, and it may be time to reset.

[RiverRat13]

I don't know how anyone can watch Sam Darnold and think the Jets are okay at QB. They'd be crazy not to take one.

[WrongVerb]

If I was the Dolphins I would think very hard about taking a QB at 3. Tua has done nothing to show that he's going to be a good NFL QB. It could still happen, but the Dolphins are good enough that they're not going to have a chance to pick high for a while, so passing on a potential franchise QB is a risk. It doesn't matter how good the rest of the team is if the QB is bad. it's pretty clear that Fitzpatrick is much better than him right now.

Tua either doesn't have the ability to read defenses and anticipate throws, or he just doesn't have the confidence to pressure the defense. Either way, that should be very concerning to the Dolphins organization, especially when you see how much better Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts looked this year. As a very amateur draft analyst, my concern with Tua was that he looked like the best player in the world against bad defenses, but legit defenses made him look ordinary to bad. He's extremely accurate, but when guys weren't running open, he struggled. The Georgia and Clemson games from his sophomore year are a perfect example. That has carried over to this year where he's basically a checkdown specialist.

I think there's a chance that the first 4 picks are all QBs. The first 2 picks seem almost certain to be QBs. The Dolphins and Falcons are a toss up, but both will be thinking about it. Falcons are getting a new coach, Matt Ryan will be 36, and it may be time to reset.

I recently saw something where they discussed Tua. The Dolphins coaches had to explain to him that receivers in the NFL won't be getting open like they did in college. And Tua needs to step up his game in recognizing when receivers are open, or even better how to throw his receivers open.

[RedTeamGo!]

I recently saw something where they discussed Tua. The Dolphins coaches had to explain to him that receivers in the NFL won't be getting open like they did in college. And Tua needs to step up his game in recognizing when receivers are open, or even better how to throw his receivers open.

Holy smokes that’s bad.

You have a link?

[Kingspoint]

I don't know how anyone can watch Sam Darnold and think the Jets are okay at QB. They'd be crazy not to take one.

How's that been working out for them? Or anyone else with the Top-3 picks lately?

[kaldaniels]

If I was the Dolphins I would think very hard about taking a QB at 3. Tua has done nothing to show that he's going to be a good NFL QB. It could still happen, but the Dolphins are good enough that they're not going to have a chance to pick high for a while, so passing on a potential franchise QB is a risk. It doesn't matter how good the rest of the team is if the QB is bad. it's pretty clear that Fitzpatrick is much better than him right now.

Tua either doesn't have the ability to read defenses and anticipate throws, or he just doesn't have the confidence to pressure the defense. Either way, that should be very concerning to the Dolphins organization, especially when you see how much better Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts looked this year. As a very amateur draft analyst, my concern with Tua was that he looked like the best player in the world against bad defenses, but legit defenses made him look ordinary to bad. He's extremely accurate, but when guys weren't running open, he struggled. The Georgia and Clemson games from his sophomore year are a perfect example. That has carried over to this year where he's basically a checkdown specialist.

I think there's a chance that the first 4 picks are all QBs. The first 2 picks seem almost certain to be QBs. The Dolphins and Falcons are a toss up, but both will be thinking about it. Falcons are getting a new coach, Matt Ryan will be 36, and it may be time to reset.

I certainly didn't watch a lot of Dolphins football but when I did, watching Tua check-down was painful. Even in game situations where checking down was not wanted he just kept doing it. You are right - the Dolphins struck gold with the pick from Houston and they need to weigh all options.

[kaldaniels]

I just realized Houston choked up the #4 pick in the 2018 draft to Cleveland and the #3 pick this year to Miami. Yikes.

If they had been winning you can over look that but.....

[WrongVerb]

Holy smokes that’s bad.

You have a link?

I think it was the announcers on the Dolphins telecast last week who were discussing it. Sorry I don't have a print version.

[MWM]

Miami is going to take Sewell. That's why I was rooting like crazy for the Texans yesterday. I think there's a good chance Jax, Jets, and Falcons would all take a QB. But I can't see Miami passing up on Sewell.

[WrongVerb]

Miami is going to take Sewell. That's why I was rooting like crazy for the Texans yesterday. I think there's a good chance Jax, Jets, and Falcons would all take a QB. But I can't see Miami passing up on Sewell.

I can see a QB-needy team (WFT?) trying to trade up to MIA spot in the draft. Also, Micah Parsons is supposed to be a great fit for Miami's offense. Finally, I don't think it's out of the question that they grab Smith or Chase.

[WVRed]

Miami is going to take Sewell. That's why I was rooting like crazy for the Texans yesterday. I think there's a good chance Jax, Jets, and Falcons would all take a QB. But I can't see Miami passing up on Sewell.

FA will tell the tale.

If they sign Allen Robinson or another capable WR, I’ll start to worry.

[Hillsdale87]

How's that been working out for them? Or anyone else with the Top-3 picks lately?

If you don't recommend taking a QB with a top pick, what would your strategy be? Yes, the bust rate is high, but you have to try to get that position right. There is no position even close to as valuable as QB. If you don't have a good QB, the rest of your picks don't really matter. It doesn't matter how good Sewell is if Tua is bad, and right now he hasn't given any reason to expect that he will be good. It could happen, but are they willing to give up a chance at a franchise QB to hope that Tua works out?

Schefter reported earlier in the season that part of the reason that Miami benched Fitz for Tua was to evaluate Tua because they knew they would have a top-5 pick. Based off of how Tua played, I'm sure Miami is going to strongly consider a QB. They see him in practice and know him better than anybody else, so they will have to decide if they think his flaws are fixable. If they think the risk with Tua is too high, then they can flip him like the Cardinals did with Rosen.

[RiverRat13]

If you don't recommend taking a QB with a top pick, what would your strategy be? Yes, the bust rate is high, but you have to try to get that position right. There is no position even close to as valuable as QB. If you don't have a good QB, the rest of your picks don't really matter. It doesn't matter how good Sewell is if Tua is bad, and right now he hasn't given any reason to expect that he will be good. It could happen, but are they willing to give up a chance at a franchise QB to hope that Tua works out?

Schefter reported earlier in the season that part of the reason that Miami benched Fitz for Tua was to evaluate Tua because they knew they would have a top-5 pick. Based off of how Tua played, I'm sure Miami is going to strongly consider a QB. They see him in practice and know him better than anybody else, so they will have to decide if they think his flaws are fixable. If they think the risk with Tua is too high, then they can flip him like the Cardinals did with Rosen.

I scanned a Dolphins message board. I guess there is a lot of chatter that the football people wanted Herbert, but the owner stepped in and wanted Tua.

[Assembly Hall]

I scanned a Dolphins message board. I guess there is a lot of chatter that the football people wanted Herbert, but the owner stepped in and wanted Tua.

Something tells me that quite a few teams are kicking themselves in the ass for not picking Herbert.

According to multiple sites, my Colts are going after a WR. I dunno about that.

[Rojo Rijo]

Jags taking Lawrence. My gut tells me Jets will take Fields, especially if he has another stellar performance Monday. It won't be a no brainer for them but they'll be wooed by his production enough to bury any of the concerns about his decision making on some throws. Miami will trade if they can. Sewell is fantastic and in many years would be a #1 overall pick but OL are probably the most difficult to hit on in the draft. If Miami could come away with a nice package for a team who wants to move up and draft Wilson I think they pull the trigger. If they stay put I think it's Sewell. I can't see them giving up on Tua already. They may be kicking themselves for not taking Herbert but they've gotta be a long ways from giving up on Tua.

[Assembly Hall]

I can't see them giving up on Tua already. They may be kicking themselves for not taking Herbert but they've gotta be a long ways from giving up on Tua.

I dunno. This ain't the same NFL I grew up with.

[Assembly Hall]

Jags taking Lawrence. My gut tells me Jets will take Fields, especially if he has another stellar performance Monday. It won't be a no brainer for them but they'll be wooed by his production enough to bury any of the concerns about his decision making on some throws. Miami will trade if they can. Sewell is fantastic and in many years would be a #1 overall pick but OL are probably the most difficult to hit on in the draft. If Miami could come away with a nice package for a team who wants to move up and draft Wilson I think they pull the trigger. If they stay put I think it's Sewell. I can't see them giving up on Tua already. They may be kicking themselves for not taking Herbert but they've gotta be a long ways from giving up on Tua.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-dolphins-take-qb-after-tua-continues-to-struggle-eagles-use-no-6-pick-on-receiver/

[redsfanmia]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-dolphins-take-qb-after-tua-continues-to-struggle-eagles-use-no-6-pick-on-receiver/

That mock draft is a joke.

[Assembly Hall]

That mock draft is a joke.

Take it up with CBS. LOL

[redsfanmia]

Take it up with CBS. LOL

Just saying they have the Colts taking a CB when their needs are Left Tackle, edge rusher, receiver and quarterback.

[adkindo]

as bad as Tua has looked, I have heard some QB guys that I trust with their evaluations that still project him as potentially elite. I think the chances are near zero that Miami considers a QB. I think Fields goes in the Top 10, but I could also see him slipping past 10 as I get the feeling he makes a lot of scouts nervous.

[adkindo]

That mock draft is a joke.

there are definitely some questionable selections....almost like the person is not really that familiar with some teams and just slotted a person in there. At least 4 picks made me shake my head on first skim....like the Bucs are not taking a RB in the 1st Round.

[WVRed]

as bad as Tua has looked, I have heard some QB guys that I trust with their evaluations that still project him as potentially elite. I think the chances are near zero that Miami considers a QB. I think Fields goes in the Top 10, but I could also see him slipping past 10 as I get the feeling he makes a lot of scouts nervous.

McShay has him going to the Patriots at 15.

Someone will trade up. There’s a possibility five QBs go first round.

[Assembly Hall]

McShay has him going to the Patriots at 15.

Someone will trade up. There’s a possibility five QBs go first round.

What 5?

[Rojo Rijo]

What 5?

Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson are locks. Lance is almost a lock and then you have Trask and Jones who both could climb into the back end of the 1st round.

[WrongVerb]

Atlanta Falcons
@AtlantaFalcons

We have to improve defensively.

With the fourth overall pick, we may do just that.

@MatthewTabeek's Mock Draft 1.0 is here ��
8:36am · 8 Jan 2021

[Rojo Rijo]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-dolphins-take-qb-after-tua-continues-to-struggle-eagles-use-no-6-pick-on-receiver/

Yeah no, CBS is one of the last mocks I will look at. There new one that came out yesterday has Miami trading back to #8 and taking Parsons.

[WrongVerb]

I look at Smith and Chase as 1a/b. Chase, being slightly bigger, and having worked with Burrow before, would be my choice if Sewell isn't there. But I would be fine with the Heisman winner, too.

[Rojo Rijo]

I look at Smith and Chase as 1a/b. Chase, being slightly bigger, and having worked with Burrow before, would be my choice if Sewell isn't there. But I would be fine with the Heisman winner, too.

Chase is the superior talent and it's not close in my opinion. As a sophomore he outshined the guy who just broke Randy Moss's rookie catches record.

There are 5 superior talents in this draft - Lawrence, Fields, Sewell, Chase, and Rousseau. Both Chase and Rousseau will need to make up for their opt outs by having a good combine, though Rousseau way more than Chase.

[WVRed]

Chase is the superior talent and it's not close in my opinion. As a sophomore he outshined the guy who just broke Randy Moss's rookie catches record.

There are 5 superior talents in this draft - Lawrence, Fields, Sewell, Chase, and Rousseau. Both Chase and Rousseau will need to make up for their opt outs by having a good combine, though Rousseau way more than Chase.

Chase has a higher ceiling but a higher bust potential IMO. The Burrow connection works for him though. If not for Burrow and Chase Smith he probably would have won the Heisman last year.

Smith is the safer pick but doesn’t have the ceiling of Chase. Smith has a larger body of work to pull from (3 yrs to 1 with Chase) including a game winning catch in the CFP as a sophomore so you know he’s clutch.

Has any QB been reunited with their top receiver from college?

[Rojo Rijo]

Chase has a higher ceiling but a higher bust potential IMO. The Burrow connection works for him though. If not for Burrow and Chase Smith he probably would have won the Heisman last year.

Smith is the safer pick but doesn’t have the ceiling of Chase. Smith has a larger body of work to pull from (3 yrs to 1 with Chase) including a game winning catch in the CFP as a sophomore so you know he’s clutch.

Has any QB been reunited with their top receiver from college?

Not many I could find. Haskins-McLaurin and Rudolph-Washington.

I believe Chase and Smith will be similar in speed, though I've seen reports on both of them getting around 4.4. If I'm being honest that's salivating for Chase who comes in at 6'1 208 where as its a little more concerning for Smith at 6'1 175 where you'd hope he'd be closer to Ruggs (4.27) than Jeudy (4.46) in straight speed. Not many guys can dip below the 4.4 mark but Smith should hope he can at least get closer to 4.40 than 4.45.

It really is fascinating the combination of those 3 at Alabama where Jeudy is a lights out route runner who gets incredible separation (just wait until he has a competent QB in Denver), Ruggs had the afterburners and Smith was the one with the sure hands.

Another interesting note is that Jaylen Waddle, not Smith, was seen by many as the most dangerous Alabama wide out. It wouldn't be a stretch to say Smith very likely doesn't win the Heisman if Waddle isn't hurt and plays the whole season. Metchie stepped up but it was still the Jones to Smith show. If Waddle is healthy there's probably a lot more balance.

[Betterread]

Not many I could find. Haskins-McLaurin and Rudolph-Washington.

I believe Chase and Smith will be similar in speed, though I've seen reports on both of them getting around 4.4. If I'm being honest that's salivating for Chase who comes in at 6'1 208 where as its a little more concerning for Smith at 6'1 175 where you'd hope he'd be closer to Ruggs (4.27) than Jeudy (4.46) in straight speed. Not many guys can dip below the 4.4 mark but Smith should hope he can at least get closer to 4.40 than 4.45.

It really is fascinating the combination of those 3 at Alabama where Jeudy is a lights out route runner who gets incredible separation (just wait until he has a competent QB in Denver), Ruggs had the afterburners and Smith was the one with the sure hands.

Another interesting note is that Jaylen Waddle, not Smith, was seen by many as the most dangerous Alabama wide out. It wouldn't be a stretch to say Smith very likely doesn't win the Heisman if Waddle isn't hurt and plays the whole season. Metchie stepped up but it was still the Jones to Smith show. If Waddle is healthy there's probably a lot more balance.

Speed is valuable, but good footwork for route running and YAC are more important . In 2020, Ruggs was clearly faster that Jefferson and Aiyuk, but they got separation more consistently, and when they caught he ball, gained more YAC.

Then again, you can run great routes and be elusive, but you have to catch the ball first. Jerry Jeudy really dropped his performance level (PFF Grades were petty poor) the last half of the year. He dropped a lot of balls.

Tee Higgins had a good year. Between him and Claypool’s 2020 success (both ran over a 4.50 40 time), I think bigger receivers can get more snaps and throws in the NFL over speedburners that can’t get open

[JaxRed]

I know sometimes these guys lie, but the Miami GM and HC said in their post year press conference that Tua is the starting QB for 2021. I tend to believe them, since they were so specific.

[Rojo Rijo]

Tua’s going to have to be pretty bad next year for Miami to move on but this one very uncommon thing happens with Josh Rosen (new coach was a big part of it) and then WFT moves on from Haskins and all the talking heads think teams are going to throw away every rookie QB who doesn’t come out blazing.

[Rojo Rijo]

Speed is valuable, but good footwork for route running and YAC are more important . In 2020, Ruggs was clearly faster that Jefferson and Aiyuk, but they got separation more consistently, and when they caught he ball, gained more YAC.

Then again, you can run great routes and be elusive, but you have to catch the ball first. Jerry Jeudy really dropped his performance level (PFF Grades were petty poor) the last half of the year. He dropped a lot of balls.

Tee Higgins had a good year. Between him and Claypool’s 2020 success (both ran over a 4.50 40 time), I think bigger receivers can get more snaps and throws in the NFL over speedburners that can’t get open

Claypool and Higgins also had the benefit of strong QB play. Jeudy had a rough year because of that. I’ve read articles that talk about how painful it was to watch tape on Denver because Jeudy was getting incredible separation and Lock was just killing him. Heck I remember watching him at UFs Friday Night Lights junior showcase where he ran an out and up and just embarrassed the DB. If he gets better QB play he’s a 1,200/10 + guy every year.

[Betterread]

Claypool and Higgins also had the benefit of strong QB play. Jeudy had a rough year because of that. I’ve read articles that talk about how painful it was to watch tape on Denver because Jeudy was getting incredible separation and Lock was just killing him. Heck I remember watching him at UFs Friday Night Lights junior showcase where he ran an out and up and just embarrassed the DB. If he gets better QB play he’s a 1,200/10 + guy every year.

Of course you are right on the impact of QB performance on receiver production. The game against NO where all the QBs failed COVID protocol was a complete wash.
Jeudy has the route running ability and elusive running style to complement Courtney Sutton next year in a dangerous pass attack, but he has to show improvement from his rookie year.

[Kingspoint]

Bengals like Receivers with size.