redsfan9988
06-24-2021, 12:49 AM
The Reds managed to salvage the last game of their recent road trip and avoid a sixth straight loss when they faced the Twins on Tuesday. They now settle in for a long homestand beginning with a four-game set with their 2020 playoff opponent, the Atlanta Braves. The Reds enter at 36-36, while the Braves, following their loss to the Mets tonight, enter at a disappointing 35-38. It's way too early to call this a must-win series for either team, but given their records and the strength of the NL West blocking the wild-card path at present, it would certainly serve both teams to show well.
The Braves - Winners of three straight NL East titles, the Braves took the eventual World Series Champion Dodgers to 7 games last year in the NLCS. On the strength of an explosive offense, talented young starting pitching, and a strong bullpen, the Braves were expected to contend once again for NL East supremacy. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the injury bug has been quite a menace in 2021. Young star pitcher Mike Soroka was expected to solidify the starting rotation after returning from an Achilles injury, but multiple set-backs have prevented him from appearing in 2021. 2020 Cy Young candidate Max Fried is also on the IL, as are Huascar Ynoa, Bryse Wilson, and Tucker Davidson. On offense, Adam Duvall is gone, Marcell Ozuna is out and with injury and facing a potentially long domestic violence suspension, and 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman, while still solid, is far off his pace from last year. Ronald Acuna has been awesome, but missed tonight's game with back tightness. He's an exciting young player, so lets all hope he gets healthy... Right after the Braves leave Cincinnati. The Braves have had a wild schedule recently, playing four games in two days on Sunday and Monday. Despite the grind, they put up a respectable 5-3 record against the Cardinals and Mets leading in to this series. They sit 5 games behind the Mets in the NL East.
Game 1 Thursday 7:10 PM ET - The Braves have had a punishing schedule lately. I feel like we missed an opportunity to start at 5 PM local time like the Padres did last week. We know the Reds will start rookie Tony Santillan, who should be well-rested after only pitching 3 innings in his last start against San Diego. As of now, the Braves haven't announced a starter. Playing 100 double-headers can adversely affect your rotation apparently. They may make a move to call someone up from AAA, or simply go with a bullpen game. My money is on the former - their bullpen is gassed. Either way, expect this to be a battle of the bullpens. Ours is awful, but Atlanta's has taken a step back as well. Could be a good ol' fashioned GABP summer slugfest. Take the over.
Game 2 Friday 7:10 PM ET - Drew Smyly goes for the Braves against Vladimir Gutierrez. Smyly saw a stunning spike in his K-rate in a small sample with San Francisco last year - it hasn't carried over. He gives up a ton of homers - a problem his whole career, but especially in 2021. He has a 5.11 ERA, a 5.74 FIP, and has given up 15 HR in 61.1 IP so far. He's seen the Reds three times in his career (twice as a SP) and has a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. He has, however, pitched a bit better on the road this year than at home.
Game 3 Saturday 4:10 PM ET - Our old nemesis and Jethro Tull frontman Ian Anderson takes the mound for the Braves. The last time he faced the Reds, the threw an absolute gem in the 2020 playoffs - 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 9 K. He hasn't quite captured his 2020 magic so far, but he's been effective, and excellent on the road, where he boasts a 2.37 ERA. His repertoire will remind you a bit of recent Reds opponent Chris Paddack - mid-90's fastball, decent breaking ball, and an excellent change up which he uses as his out pitch. The Reds counter with fellow changeup artist Luis Castillo, who is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against the Braves.
Game 4 Sunday 1:10 PM ET - The Braves put their best foot forward in this one with 37-year-old righty Charlie Morton. After an inexplicable hiccup in 2020, Morton has returned to the form that made him on of the better SP in baseball with the Astros and Rays for the last few years. He limits walks and homers, has a solid K-rate, and is very tough to barrel. He won't provide a whole lot of length - typically only facing the order twice, but he's been rock solid for quite awhile now. The Reds start Tyler Mahle - who, frankly, is trying to be the same guy. Morton has struggled against the Reds in his career (although a lot of that was a million years ago in Pittsburgh). Mahle has faced the Braves twice and been mediocre.
Weather - Warm and cloudy for the first three games with a slight chance of rain. Storms expected on Sunday, but they may hold off until the game is over.
Prediction - wellllll.... I don't feel good about any Santillan start. Even if he's good, he's not going to pitch deep, so that's 4+ innings of Reds Bullpen Extravaganza. I like our chances in game 2 because Drew Smyly isn't very good. After that - against Anderson and Morton? That's two losses. Reds lose 3 of 4. Now prove me wrong!
The Braves - Winners of three straight NL East titles, the Braves took the eventual World Series Champion Dodgers to 7 games last year in the NLCS. On the strength of an explosive offense, talented young starting pitching, and a strong bullpen, the Braves were expected to contend once again for NL East supremacy. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the injury bug has been quite a menace in 2021. Young star pitcher Mike Soroka was expected to solidify the starting rotation after returning from an Achilles injury, but multiple set-backs have prevented him from appearing in 2021. 2020 Cy Young candidate Max Fried is also on the IL, as are Huascar Ynoa, Bryse Wilson, and Tucker Davidson. On offense, Adam Duvall is gone, Marcell Ozuna is out and with injury and facing a potentially long domestic violence suspension, and 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman, while still solid, is far off his pace from last year. Ronald Acuna has been awesome, but missed tonight's game with back tightness. He's an exciting young player, so lets all hope he gets healthy... Right after the Braves leave Cincinnati. The Braves have had a wild schedule recently, playing four games in two days on Sunday and Monday. Despite the grind, they put up a respectable 5-3 record against the Cardinals and Mets leading in to this series. They sit 5 games behind the Mets in the NL East.
Game 1 Thursday 7:10 PM ET - The Braves have had a punishing schedule lately. I feel like we missed an opportunity to start at 5 PM local time like the Padres did last week. We know the Reds will start rookie Tony Santillan, who should be well-rested after only pitching 3 innings in his last start against San Diego. As of now, the Braves haven't announced a starter. Playing 100 double-headers can adversely affect your rotation apparently. They may make a move to call someone up from AAA, or simply go with a bullpen game. My money is on the former - their bullpen is gassed. Either way, expect this to be a battle of the bullpens. Ours is awful, but Atlanta's has taken a step back as well. Could be a good ol' fashioned GABP summer slugfest. Take the over.
Game 2 Friday 7:10 PM ET - Drew Smyly goes for the Braves against Vladimir Gutierrez. Smyly saw a stunning spike in his K-rate in a small sample with San Francisco last year - it hasn't carried over. He gives up a ton of homers - a problem his whole career, but especially in 2021. He has a 5.11 ERA, a 5.74 FIP, and has given up 15 HR in 61.1 IP so far. He's seen the Reds three times in his career (twice as a SP) and has a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. He has, however, pitched a bit better on the road this year than at home.
Game 3 Saturday 4:10 PM ET - Our old nemesis and Jethro Tull frontman Ian Anderson takes the mound for the Braves. The last time he faced the Reds, the threw an absolute gem in the 2020 playoffs - 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 9 K. He hasn't quite captured his 2020 magic so far, but he's been effective, and excellent on the road, where he boasts a 2.37 ERA. His repertoire will remind you a bit of recent Reds opponent Chris Paddack - mid-90's fastball, decent breaking ball, and an excellent change up which he uses as his out pitch. The Reds counter with fellow changeup artist Luis Castillo, who is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against the Braves.
Game 4 Sunday 1:10 PM ET - The Braves put their best foot forward in this one with 37-year-old righty Charlie Morton. After an inexplicable hiccup in 2020, Morton has returned to the form that made him on of the better SP in baseball with the Astros and Rays for the last few years. He limits walks and homers, has a solid K-rate, and is very tough to barrel. He won't provide a whole lot of length - typically only facing the order twice, but he's been rock solid for quite awhile now. The Reds start Tyler Mahle - who, frankly, is trying to be the same guy. Morton has struggled against the Reds in his career (although a lot of that was a million years ago in Pittsburgh). Mahle has faced the Braves twice and been mediocre.
Weather - Warm and cloudy for the first three games with a slight chance of rain. Storms expected on Sunday, but they may hold off until the game is over.
Prediction - wellllll.... I don't feel good about any Santillan start. Even if he's good, he's not going to pitch deep, so that's 4+ innings of Reds Bullpen Extravaganza. I like our chances in game 2 because Drew Smyly isn't very good. After that - against Anderson and Morton? That's two losses. Reds lose 3 of 4. Now prove me wrong!