Cost ($) to Lock in Core of Next Contender?

[adkindo]

Over the last month, I have come around to really liking the potential for this teams short to medium term future. It appears we have some solid pieces in place and really are almost in a position to fill in the holes "if" we can lock in our youngish core. What are the estimates for a contract extension this year for the following players to prevent them from hitting the free agent market in the near future......

Jesse Winker - ? (2 Years of Team Control Remaining)
Luis Castillo - ? (2 Years of Team Control Remaining)
Tyler Mahle - ? (2 Years of Team Control Remaining)
Nick Castellanos - ? (Amount needed for him to opt out and resign?)

It would seem that if those three players could be locked in to 4 or 5 year deals, we could be in a strong position to enter a legit contending window by 2023.

Starting Rotation - Castillo, Greene, Mahle, Lodolo, Gutiérrez(?)
C - Stephenson
1B - ?
2B - India
3B - Suarez
SS - Barrero
LF - Winker
CF - ? (maybe Senzel?) (Aquino?)
RF - Castellanos

Bullpen - Antone, Sims, Garrett, etc.

What would be the "ballpark" amount that it would take to buy out the remaining arbitration years and additional 3 years (5 years total) for Winker, Castillo and Mahle? How much additional cost would that be the next two years compared to what they would likely receive via arbitration? Finally, what would it take for Castellanos to opt out of his contract (if that appears to be his plan) and resign for 4ish years?

[Griffey012]

We need to stop playing the "lock in a core" game and continually make opportunistic moves to improve the club in the present and future. If a guy wants to take a team friendly type deal early, lock them up, if not trade them at some point before they are a pending FA. Only lock up generational guys to big $$$ long term deals.

[JCM11]

The Reds have a lot of money committed to ineffective players over the next few years. Votto, Moose, Suarez, and Akiyama are due for 70 million in 2022 and those four have a combined -0.9 WAR so far this year. I would try to move one of Suarez or Moose in the off season now that India looks like a legit everyday player. Miley and Tucker would cost 17 million to bring back. Stephenson makes Tucker expendable, and Greene and Lodolo could make letting Miley go a distinct possibility.

I would try to low ball Castillio while his number are down, but if he doesn't go for it no big deal he's here another two years. I would wait and see on the DH coming to the NL before offering Winker a deal. I don't know if I'd give such a poor defender a huge contract if he has to play LF everyday. Maybe he moves to first in 3 years. Mahle is the guy I'd be most aggressive in trying to lock up long term. He's two years younger than Castillo, and has improved every year.

[Wonderful Monds]

We need to stop playing the "lock in a core" game and continually make opportunistic moves to improve the club in the present and future. If a guy wants to take a team friendly type deal early, lock them up, if not trade them at some point before they are a pending FA. Only lock up generational guys to big $$$ long term deals.

I think you can still pick and choose, I wouldn’t extend Castellanos as a Boras guy who will be going for every last penny.

I would extend Winker if you could get him in the ballpark of 5/150ish. I really don’t think that should break the bank for any team tbh. If it takes significantly more years, I’d deal him this offseason.

I wouldn’t extend Castillo unless you could get a deal for him.

Mahle, I’d give that Blake Snell contract if he’d go for it probably. Isn’t that like 5/50? I wouldn’t give him a ton more due to his inning limitations.

[kaldaniels]

I think you can still pick and choose, I wouldn’t extend Castellanos as a Boras guy who will be going for every last penny.

I would extend Winker if you could get him in the ballpark of 5/150ish. I really don’t think that should break the bank for any team tbh. If it takes significantly more years, I’d deal him this offseason.

I wouldn’t extend Castillo unless you could get a deal for him.

Mahle, I’d give that Blake Snell contract if he’d go for it probably. Isn’t that like 5/50? I wouldn’t give him a ton more due to his inning limitations.

As President of the Jesse Winker Fan Club I must say even I think 5/150 is a bridge too far for him.

(He still has an arb year or two left)

[Griffey012]

I think you can still pick and choose, I wouldn’t extend Castellanos as a Boras guy who will be going for every last penny.

I would extend Winker if you could get him in the ballpark of 5/150ish. I really don’t think that should break the bank for any team tbh. If it takes significantly more years, I’d deal him this offseason.

I wouldn’t extend Castillo unless you could get a deal for him.

Mahle, I’d give that Blake Snell contract if he’d go for it probably. Isn’t that like 5/50? I wouldn’t give him a ton more due to his inning limitations.

I could see an argument for pick and choose who you keep until they hit FA. Winker might be that type, may not net you a ransom in a trade but is a huge cog in the offense. No way I am extending him at that price with his defensive limitations, he will be 30 by the time he is due to hit FA. 5/150 for Winker's age 30-34 seasons is not something the Reds can probably afford. If he maintains himself as a consistent 150 wRC+ type bat then maybe I would reconsider.

[herbdizzle]

I like the idea of extending Castillo and Mahle. If you can sign them for 4-5 years at a fair rate you do so. Pairing them with Greene and Lodolo gives you a very formidable SP foursome for the next half decade.

[TNRED]

I don't really see the need to lock in Winker, Mahle and Castillo since they have two years of control remaining. The next two seasons will probably be the best performing years of their careers. Extending past that means we are probably paying a premium for lesser performance than we can get now. It looks like 2023 is the year to throw in all of the chips. Hopefully Greene and Lodollo will be pitching with some maturity by then. Lodollo will be 25 then. Still young but no longer a young prospect. Greene is younger but with his generational tag, he should handle it. India and Stephenson should only be better. Joey's alimony is still a back breaker but you just have to eat it. Trade Senzel for anything you can get. Trade Suarez and eat a bunch of salary. Get a real SS. Get some real bullpen help. Spend the money for 2023 because 2024 will get mighty cold in that cellar.

[adkindo]

I could see an argument for pick and choose who you keep until they hit FA. Winker might be that type, may not net you a ransom in a trade but is a huge cog in the offense. No way I am extending him at that price with his defensive limitations, he will be 30 by the time he is due to hit FA. 5/150 for Winker's age 30-34 seasons is not something the Reds can probably afford. If he maintains himself as a consistent 150 wRC+ type bat then maybe I would reconsider.

If you signed him for 5 years this offseason, it would be his 28,29,30,31 and 32 year old seasons....his prime productions years. If the Reds are committed to resigning him when he becomes a FA, then that is great.....but the goal would be to sign him before he becomes a FA if it can be done at a discount. I would think 4 or 5 years of guaranteed money would be worth some amount of discount on his part. I am thinking he will get a sizable bump this year in arbitration and another large bump the next season if he continues his trend of production. The additional cost over the next 2 seasons would just be the amount he is being paid over what he would have received in arbitration. Hopefully the guarantee would allow for a discount large enough to make it a net positive on the last 3 years of the deal. There is always risk on the teams side, but it is minimal when you are paying proven players for the prime production years. Castillo would be the same years as Winker while Mahle would be his 27-31 years.

If we were the Yankees or Dodgers, I would not even worry about it.....but the Reds are unlikely able to sign FA's the level of Winker or Castillo in a free agent market.

[KronoRed]

Unless the Reds are going to start really spending then signing anyone to big deals will just be a repeat of the Votto deal, he gets paid and all the blame as the Reds cheap out everywhere else.

Just keep the roster churning.

[Benihana]

The Reds have a lot of money committed to ineffective players over the next few years. Votto, Moose, Suarez, and Akiyama are due for 70 million in 2022 and those four have a combined -0.9 WAR so far this year. I would try to move one of Suarez or Moose in the off season now that India looks like a legit everyday player. Miley and Tucker would cost 17 million to bring back. Stephenson makes Tucker expendable, and Greene and Lodolo could make letting Miley go a distinct possibility.

I would try to low ball Castillio while his number are down, but if he doesn't go for it no big deal he's here another two years. I would wait and see on the DH coming to the NL before offering Winker a deal. I don't know if I'd give such a poor defender a huge contract if he has to play LF everyday. Maybe he moves to first in 3 years. Mahle is the guy I'd be most aggressive in trying to lock up long term. He's two years younger than Castillo, and has improved every year.

Agree with this. I’d still be willing to go something like 5/125 with Winker regardless of the DH because I think he could easily move to 1B for those last two years once Votto retires. He does strike me as someone who could get pretty bad/overpriced in his twilight years, so I wouldn’t want to do more than 5 with him unless it was an option year or something like that.

Also depending on how things go with Santillan and Gutierrez, I wouldn’t mind seeing Sonny retire a Red which could mean sticking around for a year or two after his current deal expires. I could see him being a good mentor for Greene and Lodolo. I’m not yet ready to pencil Santillan or Gutierrez into the rotation for the next five years but if they can continue to show promise like they have this year that would be huge.

Definitely agree that the Reds need to move one of Suarez/Moose in the next six months, and I’m hoping it’s Moose.

[RedTeamGo!]

Agree with this. I’d still be willing to go something like 5/125 with Winker regardless of the DH because I think he could easily move to 1B for those last two years once Votto retires. He does strike me as someone who could get pretty bad/overpriced in his twilight years, so I wouldn’t want to do more than 5 with him unless it was an option year or something like that.

Also depending on how things go with Santillan and Gutierrez, I wouldn’t mind seeing Sonny retire a Red which could mean sticking around for a year or two after his current deal expires. I could see him being a good mentor for Greene and Lodolo. I’m not yet ready to pencil Santillan or Gutierrez into the rotation for the next five years but if they can continue to show promise like they have this year that would be huge.

Definitely agree that the Reds need to move one of Suarez/Moose in the next six months, and I’m hoping it’s Moose.

I agree with most of this but I’d rather move Suarez than Moose. Moose has been hurt a lot, but I don’t think he has forgotten to hit like Suarez.

I think Suarez is toast and quite frankly him playing right now is hurting the team more than Moose not playing.

Moving Suarez would be a 100% salary dump. Nothing comes back and the reds would end up paying another player a large chunk of his remaining contract to take him, but it’s addition by subtraction at this point. He’s Chris Davis.

[Griffey012]

If you signed him for 5 years this offseason, it would be his 28,29,30,31 and 32 year old seasons....his prime productions years. If the Reds are committed to resigning him when he becomes a FA, then that is great.....but the goal would be to sign him before he becomes a FA if it can be done at a discount. I would think 4 or 5 years of guaranteed money would be worth some amount of discount on his part. I am thinking he will get a sizable bump this year in arbitration and another large bump the next season if he continues his trend of production. The additional cost over the next 2 seasons would just be the amount he is being paid over what he would have received in arbitration. Hopefully the guarantee would allow for a discount large enough to make it a net positive on the last 3 years of the deal. There is always risk on the teams side, but it is minimal when you are paying proven players for the prime production years. Castillo would be the same years as Winker while Mahle would be his 27-31 years.

If we were the Yankees or Dodgers, I would not even worry about it.....but the Reds are unlikely able to sign FA's the level of Winker or Castillo in a free agent market.

If that scenario costs me 5/150 I see no reason to pull the trigger. If you get some sort of discount, say 5/90 or 5/100 type deal that is a totally different scenario.

[Moose Herd]

I agree with most of this but I’d rather move Suarez than Moose. Moose has been hurt a lot, but I don’t think he has forgotten to hit like Suarez.

I think Suarez is toast and quite frankly him playing right now is hurting the team more than Moose not playing.

Moving Suarez would be a 100% salary dump. Nothing comes back and the reds would end up paying another player a large chunk of his remaining contract to take him, but it’s addition by subtraction at this point. He’s Chris Davis.


I think it's his shoulder injury from before last season that required surgery. Guys tend to take awhile to get back from those, so I'm not sure casting him off on an ice flow is the best idea.

A .690 OPS over his last 551 plate appearances is really bad, but the 1900 plate appearances before that of .884 is probably worth it to see if it's a permanent situation.

[REDREAD]

I think it's his shoulder injury from before last season that required surgery. Guys tend to take awhile to get back from those, so I'm not sure casting him off on an ice flow is the best idea.

A .690 OPS over his last 551 plate appearances is really bad, but the 1900 plate appearances of .884 is probably worth it to see if it's a permanent situation.

I agree with you, with Suarez, we are kind of forced to do "Wait and see".. Hope whatever is wrong with him gets better.
There was an opportunity to trade him last winter.. I am not blasting the Reds for keeping Suarez, but at the same time.. They had so many 3b on the team.. Senzel, Moose, Suarez, India.
It was a definite surplus. Now I realize some of those guys play other positions too.. but still .. 4 guys for 3 spots. Plus, they had Shogo, whom I am not a fan of, but apparently the team planned on him getting more time in the OF than he ended up getting.. If the Reds had traded one of those 3b for either a SS or relief pitching, we'd be in much better shape.
Anyhow, the point is, no one is going to take Suarez now unless the Reds eat so much salary that it doesn't make sense to trade him.
If it were up to me... I'd keep Suarez at 3b the rest of the year.. He looks so much more comfortable there. Let him just focus on hitting, as opposed to hitting and playing SS.
I admire him for agreeing to try to play SS, but this is much like Aaron Boone volunteering to play 2b. Boone never got comfortable there, and it impacted his hitting. He said so himself.
Obviously, Suarez can't say that now, he might get moved back to SS if Moose comes back this year.

[adkindo]

I personally think if the Reds could ink the following deals before next season, it would position the team for a 5 year window of contending.

Winker - 5 Years / $100 Million ($20 Million per year)
Castillo - 5 Years / $100 Million ($20 Million per year)
Mahle - 5 Years / $55 Million ($11 Million per year)
Castellanos - 4 Years / $90 Million ($22.5 Million per year)

Total - $73.5 Million per year (2022-2026)

If the assumption is that Winker and Castillo will get around $9ish Million each in arbitration this offseason, Mahle in the $5ish Million range, and Castellanos would get $16 Million on his current contract....the total would be approximately $40 Million. The additional cost would be $33.5 Million for 2022. The next year with an assumption that Castillo and Winker would get in the $15 Million range, Mahle approximately $9 Million in their final year of arbitration, and Castellanos would get $16 Million on his current contract.....the total would be approximately $55 Million. The additional cost would be $18.5 Million for 2023. The payoff would likely begin in 2024 when the 4 players would still cost $73.5 Million, and I doubt very much that all 4 could be signed as FA's in 2024 for anywhere near that amount. I think $73.5 Million is a bargain in the current market for 2 of the teams top 4 starting pitchers and 2 position players that will likely hit over .300 with 35 HR's and 100 RBI's each season.

This would give the Reds a very good core for the next 5+ years with their best players under team control. It is also setup nicely where the higher paid players currently would be ending their contracts around the same time that the very young guys will be closing in on their first large contracts.

Starting Rotation - Castillo ('22-'26), Greene('22-'27), Mahle ('22-'26), Lodolo ('22-'27), Gutiérrez ('22-'26)
C - Stephenson ('22-'26)
1B - Votto ('22-'23/24)
2B - India ('22-'26)
3B - Suarez ('22-'24/25)
SS - Barrero ('22-'27)
LF - Winker ('22-'26)
CF - maybe Senzel ('22-'25) Aquino ('22-'25)
RF - Castellanos ('22-'25)

Five years of a really solid and improving core where we just have to fill in some bench and bullpen holes each offseason....or just allow the Dodgers or Yankees sign guys when they become FA's while praying we get lucky and a staff ace and some guys that lead the NL in most hitting categories just fall into our laps.

[Kc61]

You can’t make a winner signing up the current Reds. They are a .500 team with, among other things, run prevention issues involving both pitching and defense.

The best use of money now is to pay a top team builder to come in and make decisions. Not a gut rebuild, but re-tooling with no player considered untouchable. (Ok, maybe Hunter Greene.)

Nothing against signing any particular player for good value, but Reds need to take a deep, objective look at their team, project their future budgets, and form a winning plan. Not sure they’ll do that, but it’s what’s needed.

[JCM11]

Castillo is under team control through his age 30 season. I really don't see the need to pay a ton of money for his age 31+ seasons especially with the young SP we have coming up.

[CaiGuy]

Castillo is under team control through his age 30 season. I really don't see the need to pay a ton of money for his age 31+ seasons especially with the young SP we have coming up.

I am a big fan of Castillo, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to extend him. For some reason, I don't see him pitching really well into his 30's. I would enjoy his best years and churn that spot.

[Wonderful Monds]

If that scenario costs me 5/150 I see no reason to pull the trigger. If you get some sort of discount, say 5/90 or 5/100 type deal that is a totally different scenario.

I think any team serious about contending has to be able to pay market level contracts to at least one or two impact players. That’s why I also defend the Votto contract as not being the reason the Reds couldn’t compete the last however many years.


Winker is playing on pace to be a 5-6 win player this year. That’s a guy worth 150 mil at his age IMO.

[herbdizzle]

I think the Reds need to decide who they want to keep for 3B, either Suarez or Moose. The other one needs to be traded. If you can find a sucker at the deadline take the shot, if not, use the offseason to work a reasonable deal to free up the salary slot and establish the IF for next year with Votto, India, Barrero, & Suarez/Moose.

I think the Reds should try to find a buyer for Shogo as well but that may be difficult without throwing a sweetener or taking back maybe a pitcher with similar salary.

[mth123]

I think the Reds need to decide who they want to keep for 3B, either Suarez or Moose. The other one needs to be traded. If you can find a sucker at the deadline take the shot, if not, use the offseason to work a reasonable deal to free up the salary slot and establish the IF for next year with Votto, India, Barrero, & Suarez/Moose.

I think the Reds should try to find a buyer for Shogo as well but that may be difficult without throwing a sweetener or taking back maybe a pitcher with similar salary.

I wouldn't mind getting a contract off the books, but I wouldn't pay for some one to take them. The DH will be in play next year so Suarez/Moose/Votto can share 1B/3B/DH. Castellanos is likely walking, so they will be a bat short. I can go with your plan if they think Lopez is in the 3B mix. That remains to be seen IMO.

I don't see any team taking Shogo. Defense first OF who don't hit are all over the minor leagues and easy to find for a roster. Shogo's weak arm even limits his defensive value somewhat. He's best in LF. He's OK in CF, especially in a smaller park. He could play RF but his arm will cost the team there. Nobody is ever going to take him even if the Reds pay half his salary. He's due $7 Million next year. For the Reds to trade him, they'd probably need to throw in $6.25 Million.

[wlf WV]

Sell the team and invest in tech stocks! If you can’t run with pack, just lay on the porch.

[HokieRed]

You are never going to be competitive in Cincinnati by giving extended contracts at high dollar prices to players, however good. It's the wrong model. We have way too much money now going to currently marginally valuable players based on prior accomplishments. The Moustakas mistake is a glaring example of how not to compete. The goal has to be to bring a number of rapidly improving younger players together at the same time and to keep doing it over and over. You could build a whole bullpen with the money people are suggesting we throw at Winker. I like Winker a lot, but I'd rather have the bullpen.

[HokieRed]

I wouldn't mind getting a contract off the books, but I wouldn't pay for some one to take them. The DH will be in play next year so Suarez/Moose/Votto can share 1B/3B/DH. Castellanos is likely walking, so they will be a bat short. I can go with your plan if they think Lopez is in the 3B mix. That remains to be seen IMO.

I don't see any team taking Shogo. Defense first OF who don't hit are all over the minor leagues and easy to find for a roster. Shogo's weak arm even limits his defensive value somewhat. He's best in LF. He's OK in CF, especially in a smaller park. He could play RF but his arm will cost the team there. Nobody is ever going to take him even if the Reds pay half his salary. He's due $7 Million next year. For the Reds to trade him, they'd probably need to throw in $6.25 Million.

Shogo's a complete write off. Nobody is taking any part of Shogo's contract. Nor Suarez's at this point. And if we're going to play Suarez/Moose/Votto at the same time next year, we can tally up one more year of mediocrity.

[Mitri]

I wonder if the Yankees would take Shogo if the Reds paid down a portion of his deal? They could use a good defensive OF and are a good landing spot for Japanese players because of the market.

When it comes to Suarez, I would give him away if the Reds could find a taker. I don't care if they're a bat or two short next season, Suarez looks like toast.

[adkindo]

You are never going to be competitive in Cincinnati by giving extended contracts at high dollar prices to players, however good. It's the wrong model. We have way too much money now going to currently marginally valuable players based on prior accomplishments. The Moustakas mistake is a glaring example of how not to compete. The goal has to be to bring a number of rapidly improving younger players together at the same time and to keep doing it over and over. You could build a whole bullpen with the money people are suggesting we throw at Winker. I like Winker a lot, but I'd rather have the bullpen.

If this is the model, then they can probably count me out as a very interested fan in the future. If you want to see how this model works with building a large loyal fan base, take a look at the TB Rays. Sure they often win more than they lose, but I am not sure the 3,000 fans in the Trop love the model having little to no emotional investment in many of the players passing through for a few years....knowing the better they perform, the more likely they will be in a different uniform soon.

Say what you will about Votto, but his value in keeping many fans connected to the team over the past 4-5 years has been invaluable. The problem with his contract was not the total cost, it was the amount of time it was stretched over....which extended into the less productive years of his career. By any meaningful measure, his overall production during that contract has been a value for the Reds. In regards to Winker, we are just entering what should be the most productive years of his career. If you put his current production in context, that is not a level of production that the Reds can replace in free agency. If he performs near the level he is this season over the next two seasons, there is a 99% chance he will leave in free agency for more money.

I do not agree that the model for a small market team is to churn players. I think the model is to take risks in trying to secure high level talent at a price below what you expect they would receive if they produce as you expect. Sometimes a team will get burnt, but it is still the optimal model in my opinion. Take Geno for example...his contract is no longer a great value because his production took a historical nose dive, but if he continued on his 2018/2019 track, his contract would be one of the more valuable contracts in MLB.

[Griffey012]

I think any team serious about contending has to be able to pay market level contracts to at least one or two impact players. That’s why I also defend the Votto contract as not being the reason the Reds couldn’t compete the last however many years.


Winker is playing on pace to be a 5-6 win player this year. That’s a guy worth 150 mil at his age IMO.

I agree with you on your first sentence. I just am not convinced Winker is going to be the guy you spend one of those big time contracts on. If he shows out to be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball over the next year and a half I'll reconsider, I just don't see a rush to pay him that type of money until we have a larger sample.

FWIW I still think the Votto contract was dumb as heck because he was still under team control for 2 more seasons and ownership essentially said we will pay you whatever you want for however long just sign an extension with us (same approach they took with Bailey). I'm sure BobC and Walt felt good sticking it to their STL friends after they lost out on Pujols though. I don't know what Votto could have done over the next 2 seasons to increase that contract from what they paid him.

[WildcatFan]

I agree with you on your first sentence. I just am not convinced Winker is going to be the guy you spend one of those big time contracts on. If he shows out to be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball over the next year and a half I'll reconsider, I just don't see a rush to pay him that type of money until we have a larger sample.

FWIW I still think the Votto contract was dumb as heck because he was still under team control for 2 more seasons and ownership essentially said we will pay you whatever you want for however long just sign an extension with us. I'm sure BobC and Walt felt good sticking it to their STL friends after they lost out on Pujols though. I don't know what Votto could have done over the next 2 seasons to increase that contract from what they paid him.

Both of those scenarios increase the price tags. If Winker goes two full seasons as a top 10 hitter, he costs more. If the Reds wait until Votto's a free agent to offer a contract, he costs more. They don't have that luxury.

[UKFlounder]

One of the difficulties in thud is the unseen costs (when the contracts are signed.) When the Redd extended Homer Bailey, did anybody imagine that, in addition to the announced money, it would cost two good prospects (Downs snd Gray) to get out of thst deal?

[Griffey012]

Both of those scenarios increase the price tags. If Winker goes two full seasons as a top 10 hitter, he costs more. If the Reds wait until Votto's a free agent to offer a contract, he costs more. They don't have that luxury.

Do you think a borderline DH is going to get $40M per year? I don't.

Maybe Votto gets more, maybe not. Miggy went 8/$248M in 2014. As good as Votto was, Miggy was on his own planet at the time.

[WildcatFan]

Do you think a borderline DH is going to get $40M per year? I don't.

Maybe Votto gets more, maybe not. Miggy went 8/$248M in 2014. As good as Votto was, Miggy was on his own planet at the time.

I haven't heard anybody calling for $40m/year. But $30m/year for an MVP contender on the right side of 30? Absolutely.

Also Cabrera's deal was an extension too.

[mth123]

I agree with you on your first sentence. I just am not convinced Winker is going to be the guy you spend one of those big time contracts on. If he shows out to be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball over the next year and a half I'll reconsider, I just don't see a rush to pay him that type of money until we have a larger sample.

FWIW I still think the Votto contract was dumb as heck because he was still under team control for 2 more seasons and ownership essentially said we will pay you whatever you want for however long just sign an extension with us (same approach they took with Bailey). I'm sure BobC and Walt felt good sticking it to their STL friends after they lost out on Pujols though. I don't know what Votto could have done over the next 2 seasons to increase that contract from what they paid him.

I'm probably more of a "we need a couple years to really judge a guy" type than most on here, but Winker turns 28 in August, he has 1352 career PAs with an OPS of .893 and an OPS+ of 130. How much more sample do you need? I think 1000 PAs is pretty sufficient. Sometimes a guy goes in the toilet anyway (like Suarez) but I don't more PAs are necessary at this point. If teh cost will be teh same by waiting, then wait, but another year like this one and the proce will go to teh point the Reds can't afford him.

[WrongVerb]

I'm probably more of a "we need a couple years to really judge a guy" type than most on here, but Winker turns 28 in August, he has 1352 career PAs with an OPS of .893 and an OPS+ of 130. How much more sample do you need? I think 1000 PAs is pretty sufficient. Sometimes a guy goes in the toilet anyway (like Suarez) but I don't more PAs are necessary at this point. If teh cost will be teh same by waiting, then wait, but another year like this one and the proce will go to teh point the Reds can't afford him.

Winker is the type of guy the Cardinals churn before the player starts his decline.

[RedsManRick]

We need to stop playing the "lock in a core" game and continually make opportunistic moves to improve the club in the present and future. If a guy wants to take a team friendly type deal early, lock them up, if not trade them at some point before they are a pending FA. Only lock up generational guys to big $$$ long term deals.

Yep. The Rays have been playing the churn game forever. The key thing they do is not get too attached to particular players, locking themselves into big, long deals. They routinely risk cutting bait early instead of too late and keep cycling the value. Trust your baseball ops team to keep identifying talent.

I mean, name 5 Rays. Good luck. Meanwhile they're 47-34 and have played 88-win baseball on average since 2008 while spending roughly half of what the Reds have spent.

I think Jesse Winker is an interesting case study here. Could he be a down-ballot MVP candidate who just keeps raking for the next 4 or 5 years? Absolutely. Could this be his career year and he ends up being a 2 WAR guy who puts up an .850 OPS and DH level defense as he approaches/passes age 30? Absolutely.

There's a number where extending him makes sense, for sure. But I think teams tend to underappreciate the opportunity costs resulting from locking in non-star players at real salaries.

[Griffey012]

I haven't heard anybody calling for $40m/year. But $30m/year for an MVP contender on the right side of 30? Absolutely.

Also Cabrera's deal was an extension too.

The original number thrown out was 5/150 and I was told waiting would only increase the price tag. 40 a year might be a stretch but how far do we increase above 30 in this scenario?

- - - Updated - - -


I'm probably more of a "we need a couple years to really judge a guy" type than most on here, but Winker turns 28 in August, he has 1352 career PAs with an OPS of .893 and an OPS+ of 130. How much more sample do you need? I think 1000 PAs is pretty sufficient. Sometimes a guy goes in the toilet anyway (like Suarez) but I don't more PAs are necessary at this point. If teh cost will be teh same by waiting, then wait, but another year like this one and the proce will go to teh point the Reds can't afford him.

Okay, I am certainly not spending 5/150 on a 130 wRC+ borderline DH. I guess I have enough sample.

[Griffey012]

Yep. The Rays have been playing the churn game forever. The key thing they do is not get too attached to particular players, locking themselves into big, long deals. They routinely risk cutting bait early instead of too late and keep cycling the value. Trust your baseball ops team to keep identifying talent.

I mean, name 5 Rays. Good luck. Meanwhile they're 47-34 and have played 88-win baseball on average since 2008 while spending roughly half of what the Reds have spent.

I think Jesse Winker is an interesting case study here. Could he be a down-ballot MVP candidate who just keeps raking for the next 4 or 5 years? Absolutely. Could this be his career year and he ends up being a 2 WAR guy who puts up an .850 OPS and DH level defense as he approaches/passes age 30? Absolutely.

There's a number where extending him makes sense, for sure. But I think teams tend to underappreciate the opportunity costs resulting from locking in non-star players at real salaries.

It would be really fun to see what the "Rays model" could do with an extra $75-$100M of salary in any given season as well. It would certainly allow them to plug some holes or add some talent on short term high dollar deals.

[TNRED]

I am kind of curious about how many big dollar long term contracts have worked out in MLB?

[Mitri]

5/150 for Wink is crazy talk, especially considering his arb 2 and 3 years are included. I haven't read the whole thread, what are the estimates for his salaries the next few years?

I'd be willing to buy out his last two arb years, and tack on another 2 years, so maybe 4/$85MM or even 5/$110MM. Those are nice offers for Jesse and would get him back to FA right at age 32 or 33.

[mth123]

The original number thrown out was 5/150 and I was told waiting would only increase the price tag. 40 a year might be a stretch but how far do we increase above 30 in this scenario?

- - - Updated - - -



Okay, I am certainly not spending 5/150 on a 130 wRC+ borderline DH. I guess I have enough sample.

If that's the point, I agree.. I'd want to sign him now to get him for something like 5/90 with the contract increasing in a couple years when Moose and Votto are off the books/ maybe $8, $$13,$23, $23, $23

[Wonderful Monds]

You are never going to be competitive in Cincinnati by giving extended contracts at high dollar prices to players, however good. It's the wrong model. We have way too much money now going to currently marginally valuable players based on prior accomplishments. The Moustakas mistake is a glaring example of how not to compete. The goal has to be to bring a number of rapidly improving younger players together at the same time and to keep doing it over and over. You could build a whole bullpen with the money people are suggesting we throw at Winker. I like Winker a lot, but I'd rather have the bullpen.

So I guess we shouldn’t have signed Castellanos either then?

[Wonderful Monds]

There also doesn’t need to be a choice between having a bullpen and a good young player like Winker. Don’t fall for the front office BS, they can afford it.

There’s a reason this league is heading towards a potential lockout, and it’s because the collective ownership aren’t spending money everyone knows is there.

[mth123]

So I guess we shouldn’t have signed Castellanos either then?

Castellanos has been a big success, but on the whole, last year's spending spree hasn't been. Shogo hasn't contributed much and Moose has been hurt a lot both years. Miley's been great this year, but did very little last year. Meanwhile, the Reds have a bunch of holes and cried poor all winter and didn't address them.

Now Cast will walk and the Reds will be left with the rest of the money owed and not much to show for it.

It does make you wonder. The problem is Tampa Bay's plan require players in the pipeline and the Reds don't have that. If the Reds didn't spend a little, they'd be the Pirates and that's worse.

[sdwagers]

I 'm for churn game... the problem is the burn game that plagues the Reds. Looking at trades of big Reds players has not been going well in recent years. See, Cueto, Johnny or Frazier, Todd.

[mth123]

I 'm for churn game... the problem is the burn game that plagues the Reds. Looking at trades of big Reds players has not been going well in recent years. See, Cueto, Johnny or Frazier, Todd.

At the end of the day, any strategy requires somebody smart enough to make it work. You can spend but make bad choices and be a bottom feeder or you can always play cheap and be a bottom feeder as well. If you aren't smart enough tpoknow who to trade, who to target and how to stock the pipeline, nothing other than dumb luck is going to work.

[Wonderful Monds]

Castellanos has been a big success, but on the whole, last year's spending spree hasn't been. Shogo hasn't contributed much and Moose has been hurt a lot both years. Miley's been great this year, but did very little last year. Meanwhile, the Reds have a bunch of holes and cried poor all winter and didn't address them.

Now Cast will walk and the Reds will be left with the rest of the money owed and not much to show for it.

It does make you wonder. The problem is Tampa Bay's plan require players in the pipeline and the Reds don't have that. If the Reds didn't spend a little, they'd be the Pirates and that's worse.

The problem is that they cried poor then. They obviously had the money to spend or they never would have done so in the first place.


I just refuse to believe there’s zero ground between being the Dodgers buying every player in existence and the Rays selling everyone off once they make more than 2 cents.


The Reds entire problem is that they suck at developing prospects. That’s all it is. Spending less money on the MLB payroll wasn’t going to suddenly turn Senzel into not being a bust or make up for any of the other drafting and development failures they’ve had in the last 5-10 years.

[mth123]

The problem is that they cried poor then. They obviously had the money to spend or they never would have done so in the first place.


I just refuse to believe there’s zero ground between being the Dodgers buying every player in existence and the Rays selling everyone off once they make more than 2 cents.


The Reds entire problem is that they suck at developing prospects. That’s all it is. Spending less money on the MLB payroll wasn’t going to suddenly turn Senzel into not being a bust or make up for any of the other drafting and development failures they’ve had in the last 5-10 years.

But, agree or disagree with the Finances, the reality is that there is going to be a budget every year and the Reds need an approach that can be successful under those conditions, I kind of agree with RMR that the Tampa Bay model is the right approach, but I don't think the Reds have the brainpower to pull it off any more than they can spend wisely enough to be successful that way. If you don't have the smarts to stock the pipeline in the draft or to target the right up and coming kids when you are churning your vets, the Tampa Bay model will fail the same way everything else has.

[Wonderful Monds]

But, agree or disagree with the Finances, the reality is that there is going to be a budget every year and the Reds need an approach that can be successful under those conditions, I kind of agree with RMR that the Tampa Bay model is the right approach, but I don't think the Reds have the brainpower to pull it off any more than they can spend wisely enough to be successful that way. If you don't have the smarts to stock the pipeline in the draft or to target the right up and coming kids when you are churning your vets, the Tampa Bay model will fail the same way everything else has.

The Tampa model is being really good at developing players and being really good at targeting the right ones to draft or acquire. Spending less money and lining the owners pockets doesn’t help achieve that. They would be even better if they put some more money into their MLB salaries.

[Wonderful Monds]

And also just speaking as a fan, I will never buy into the hardcore “I just root for the laundry” to the extreme the way the Rays take it. There’s a reason they don’t have much of a fanbase to speak of at all and it’s not just because they didn’t put their stadium in Tampa proper.

It’s only been until the last decade that baseball teams have suddenly become so poor you can’t expect them to both win and keep a few familiar faces around, somehow despite franchises hitting record high valuations.

[HokieRed]

So I guess we shouldn’t have signed Castellanos either then?

I liked the Castellanos signing a lot better than the Moustakas one, as I made clear at the time--the prime variable being their age difference. Still even as good as Castellanos has been, I'm not sure the team wouldn't be significantly better if it had spent his money in other ways--on the pen, for instance, or on a real SS with a shorter term contract--take Semien for instance. I'd a whole lot rather have him this year than Castellanos. But the Moustakas acquisition seems to me an entirely predictable failure, and I can only consider the Shogo signing a complete scouting breakdown. A left fielder who gets an XBH every 25 PA. Take the expenditure on those two contracts and invest it in the pen and/or SS and this team would be significantly better. I'm not really an advocate of Tampa level churn, but I do think the model should still be to get a number of young players to be coming into their own best years simultaneously. Identifying and developing young players is the key. And, by the way, I've no objection to the Votto contract. A player of Votto's level deserves it. It hasn't been the best way to allocate resources but his value to the organization is such that he's the guy you pay no matter what. The tragedy of my 65 years of watching Reds baseball is that Frank Robinson didn't spend his whole career with the Reds. One can only speculate on what the impact on the organization would have been over the years if he had been seen in the light that Votto has been.

[fearofpopvol1]

I liked the Castellanos signing a lot better than the Moustakas one, as I made clear at the time--the prime variable being their age difference. Still even as good as Castellanos has been, I'm not sure the team wouldn't be significantly better if it had spent his money in other ways--on the pen, for instance, or on a real SS with a shorter term contract--take Semien for instance. I'd a whole lot rather have him this year than Castellanos. But the Moustakas acquisition seems to me an entirely predictable failure, and I can only consider the Shogo signing a complete scouting breakdown. A left fielder who gets an XBH every 25 PA. Take the expenditure on those two contracts and invest it in the pen and/or SS and this team would be significantly better. I'm not really an advocate of Tampa level churn, but I do think the model should still be to get a number of young players to be coming into their own best years simultaneously. Identifying and developing young players is the key. And, by the way, I've no objection to the Votto contract. A player of Votto's level deserves it. It hasn't been the best way to allocate resources but his value to the organization is such that he's the guy you pay no matter what. The tragedy of my 65 years of watching Reds baseball is that Frank Robinson didn't spend his whole career with the Reds. One can only speculate on what the impact on the organization would have been over the years if he had been seen in the light that Votto has been.

Nobody could have foreseen India's emergence. In fact, many lobbied to trade him for next to nothing even as recently as a year ago. If India doesn't emerge, the Moose signing looks a lot different.

[corkedbat]

We need to stop playing the "lock in a core" game and continually make opportunistic moves to improve the club in the present and future. If a guy wants to take a team friendly type deal early, lock them up, if not trade them at some point before they are a pending FA. Only lock up generational guys to big $$$ long term deals.

Like The Byrds once said, "Churn, Churn, Churn."

[Hoosier Red]

But, agree or disagree with the Finances, the reality is that there is going to be a budget every year and the Reds need an approach that can be successful under those conditions, I kind of agree with RMR that the Tampa Bay model is the right approach, but I don't think the Reds have the brainpower to pull it off any more than they can spend wisely enough to be successful that way. If you don't have the smarts to stock the pipeline in the draft or to target the right up and coming kids when you are churning your vets, the Tampa Bay model will fail the same way everything else has.

I agree with you and the Tampa Bay model is really hard to pull off, and has plenty of downside risk to failing.
On the plus side, i assume it's easier/cheaper to hire Tampa Bay's GM/brains than it would be to fund player contracts any other way.
On the down side, it would take a long time and provide cover for the owners to half-ass it which would be worse than even failing the way they've been failing of late.

[REDREAD]

He's (Shogo) due $7 Million next year. For the Reds to trade him, they'd probably need to throw in $6.25 Million.

Agreed, but there's a chance the Reds could swap him for another bad contract which is more useful.
Small chance, I admit. For example, a SS that can field well, can't hit well, making 8 million, or a mediocre reliever that is making a lot of money.. Honestly, not sure there's a team that would even want Shogo at 750k.. (If the Reds ate 6.25 million).
If he was a free agent, would someone even want him at the minimum? Not likely, teams would rather gamble on a younger guy with tools and upside.

[REDREAD]

Shogo's a complete write off. Nobody is taking any part of Shogo's contract. Nor Suarez's at this point. And if we're going to play Suarez/Moose/Votto at the same time next year, we can tally up one more year of mediocrity.

If we get the DH next year, that helps.. One of those 3 can DH. You're right, having Suarez at SS or Moose at 2b so all three can play just does not work.

[HokieRed]

Nobody could have foreseen India's emergence. In fact, many lobbied to trade him for next to nothing even as recently as a year ago. If India doesn't emerge, the Moose signing looks a lot different.

You're referring to people on RZ, and even some of us never thought it a good idea to trade somebody the org. once thought of highly enough of to make a #5 overall draft pick. From the way they treated him this spring, I suspect there were insiders who could foresee India's development. Also, would Moustakas be younger and healthier if India had not emerged? Senzel could also have been played at second and Suarez could have stayed at third--with possibly good offensive consequences--also. Moose signing doesn't look like anything except a classic overpay for a player's past performance made by a befuddled organization.

[HokieRed]

If we get the DH next year, that helps.. One of those 3 can DH. You're right, having Suarez at SS or Moose at 2b so all three can play just does not work.

Probably the only one I'd consider DHing is Votto.

[Big Klu]

And also just speaking as a fan, I will never buy into the hardcore “I just root for the laundry” to the extreme the way the Rays take it. There’s a reason they don’t have much of a fanbase to speak of at all and it’s not just because they didn’t put their stadium in Tampa proper.

Is that the reason why Tampa Bay doesn't have much of a fanbase, or is the lack of a fanbase the reason why they can get away with it?

Kind of a "chicken or egg" conundrum.

[HokieRed]

If we get the DH next year, that helps.. One of those 3 can DH. You're right, having Suarez at SS or Moose at 2b so all three can play just does not work.

Aquino's next year's RH DH, Votto the LH.

[Wonderful Monds]

Aquino's next year's RH DH, Votto the LH.

Aquino is like the last one of the outfielders that needs to DH, that’s definitely Winker’s spot next year.

[adkindo]

5/150 for Wink is crazy talk, especially considering his arb 2 and 3 years are included. I haven't read the whole thread, what are the estimates for his salaries the next few years?

I'd be willing to buy out his last two arb years, and tack on another 2 years, so maybe 4/$85MM or even 5/$110MM. Those are nice offers for Jesse and would get him back to FA right at age 32 or 33.

I think 5/150 is probably what Winker gets in FA....maybe a little more if he has a couple more years like he is having this year. I would like to lock him in now and buy out his 2 arbitration years for more in the range of 5/$100ish. He gives up the potential to make more money for $100 Million guaranteed.....the team takes a decent risk by paying a guy $40 Million over the next two seasons when he would probably cost just a little more than half that amount through arbitration betting on his being a major value those final 3 years. I feel the same about Castillo.

[adkindo]

Yep. The Rays have been playing the churn game forever.

and even when they are competitive in the AL East, they have a hard time getting 15K fans to a home game....

[adkindo]

And also just speaking as a fan, I will never buy into the hardcore “I just root for the laundry” to the extreme the way the Rays take it. There’s a reason they don’t have much of a fanbase to speak of at all and it’s not just because they didn’t put their stadium in Tampa proper.

It’s only been until the last decade that baseball teams have suddenly become so poor you can’t expect them to both win and keep a few familiar faces around, somehow despite franchises hitting record high valuations.

Most fans would not enjoy supporting a team when they have no emotional investment into the players. There is a reason why teams often put out in house human interest media about the players on the team. I would bet my house if you polled Reds fans on a hypothetical scenario of the Reds win the World Series in 7 games with a walk off HR and allow them to choose the player to hit the HR, the overwhelming majority would pick Joey Votto.

[adkindo]

Aquino is like the last one of the outfielders that needs to DH, that’s definitely Winker’s spot next year.

The issue is he has openly stated he does not want to be a DH. It is very hard to force one of the best players on the team to DH when he wants to play a position. I personally do not see Bell forcing Winker to be the full time DH if Winker objects.

[KronoRed]

and even when they are competitive in the AL East, they have a hard time getting 15K fans to a home game....

They had a hard time getting fans in before they went for the churn.

The fact is if the Reds do sign some guys long term for large dollars they will not spend elsewhere, they have shown that over and over, the current team has no SS and a BP made up of 'hope', they just won't spend, if the goal is a title the Reds need to churn.

[fearofpopvol1]

You're referring to people on RZ, and even some of us never thought it a good idea to trade somebody the org. once thought of highly enough of to make a #5 overall draft pick. From the way they treated him this spring, I suspect there were insiders who could foresee India's development. Also, would Moustakas be younger and healthier if India had not emerged? Senzel could also have been played at second and Suarez could have stayed at third--with possibly good offensive consequences--also. Moose signing doesn't look like anything except a classic overpay for a player's past performance made by a befuddled organization.

Yes, many on RZ were ready to trade India for a bag of balls. Check out the Minor League forums and you'll see. I don't believe most of the experts foresaw his emergence at The Show to be this quick. When healthy, Moose has been somewhere around a 3 win player each year. There was no 2B in place when they signed Moose and Senzel had spent most of his latter time in the minors manning the OF. Moose was a good signing at the time, but things have changed since then.

[Griffey012]

and even when they are competitive in the AL East, they have a hard time getting 15K fans to a home game....

The Reds have the budget to churn a lot but not everybody. The Reds problem is they want to keep everyone as long as possible.

[REDREAD]

Aquino's next year's RH DH, Votto the LH.

Interesting idea, but I think Votto is the better hitter against lefties.
Aquino is just not that good IMO.