Reflection$ on the ro$ter: 2025

[Wheelhouse]

Money plays a huge part in the game in many different ways. I'd like to look at how money affected the 2025 Reds in one particular context: contract status.

In 2025, all of Matt McClain, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Santiago Espinal and TJ Fridl were facing their final at bats before their first year of arbitration. This year would be the first year where their hitting numbers would have a considerable effect on what they are paid. You could add in new father Tyler Stephenson to the list as a player who has money on his mind.

The leadership vet, Austin Hays, lost about 200 ABs to injury in an upcoming free agent year. (You can bet he got a call from his agent about that-"Give me some numbers to work with!")

The chosen celebration for home runs being the "money gun" in the dugout feels super appropriate.

The Reds had a roster of players who were under acute financial pressure, many for the first time. I'd love to think that players play team ball regardless of money. But if there's one mantra all players have driven into their head, it's "This game is a business."

As much as "good at bats", "advance the runner", "wait for your pitch" etc. was preached, this team ranked 21st in MLB in fewest pitches seen. They were free swingers. It's hard to coach team baseball to a roster that is so universally under acute financial pressure. Mix in at bats that were thrown away in recovery from injuries, you get a team that had the painful offensive woes the Reds had.

What needs to be done? 1) Tito and the coaches need to be aware of this team wide financial fear, and coach to it 2) the front office needs to provide financial visibility where it can (this means deciding who you really want long term) and 3) the Reds need to acquire a strong veteran hitter known for being committed to fundamental baseball.

Oh, and ditch the money machine in the dugout.

[Kc61]

Talking about dollars - after the departure of Candelario, Reds’ position player group on the field was cheap. Hays and Stephenson got about $5 million. Hayes got more but not from the Reds - they acquired him late season. OTOH, Reds had Martinez, Singer, Pagan, and Greene over $5 million on the pitching side. Based on Spotrac salary table.

Reds’ position player fWAR was 25th in MLB.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Talking about dollars - after the departure of Candelario, Reds’ position player group on the field was cheap. Hays and Stephenson got about $5 million. Hayes got more but not from the Reds - they acquired him late season. OTOH, Reds had Martinez, Singer, Pagan, and Greene over $5 million on the pitching side. Based on Spotrac salary table.

Reds’ position player fWAR was 25th in MLB.

That's absolutely an issue that needs to be addressed this off-season. Where does that money come from?

Ownership may claim that 20th in attendance means 20th in payroll. That'd be $131M if we take 2025 numbers as a rough ballpark figure. That'd be a bump of around $12M from last season. Substantial enough to grab a good closer and a depth reliever or gamble.

That, however, doesn't take into account the bump from playoffs monies given to each team. The players, coaches, and staff get 3% of the total revenue of the gate receipts from the 26 guaranteed playoff games. For example, the Reds' playoff games in LA created an extra $20M in revenue just in ticket sales. As a playoff team, the Reds get a cut of that.

With the bump they received from attendance and the playoffs, assuming "break even," 15th-19th in total payroll makes sense.

That's somewhere from $135M - $160M.

[Crosley68]

Money plays a huge part in the game in many different ways. I'd like to look at how money affected the 2025 Reds in one particular context: contract status.

In 2025, all of Matt McClain, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Santiago Espinal and TJ Fridl were facing their final at bats before their first year of arbitration. This year would be the first year where their hitting numbers would have a considerable effect on what they are paid. You could add in new father Tyler Stephenson to the list as a player who has money on his mind.

The leadership vet, Austin Hays, lost about 200 ABs to injury in an upcoming free agent year. (You can bet he got a call from his agent about that-"Give me some numbers to work with!")

The chosen celebration for home runs being the "money gun" in the dugout feels super appropriate.

The Reds had a roster of players who were under acute financial pressure, many for the first time. I'd love to think that players play team ball regardless of money. But if there's one mantra all players have driven into their head, it's "This game is a business."

As much as "good at bats", "advance the runner", "wait for your pitch" etc. was preached, this team ranked 21st in MLB in fewest pitches seen. They were free swingers. It's hard to coach team baseball to a roster that is so universally under acute financial pressure. Mix in at bats that were thrown away in recovery from injuries, you get a team that had the painful offensive woes the Reds had.

What needs to be done? 1) Tito and the coaches need to be aware of this team wide financial fear, and coach to it 2) the front office needs to provide financial visibility where it can (this means deciding who you really want long term) and 3) the Reds need to acquire a strong veteran hitter known for being committed to fundamental baseball.

Oh, and ditch the money machine in the dugout.

This has been on my mind for a while now. I appreciate that you were able to produce a more succinct post than I would have been able to. Do you think that the powers that be in the Reds dugout and front office think this way too?

[mth123]

I'm guessing the payroll will be in the $125 to $130 Range. Pretty similar to last year with a slight increase for optics given the attendance bump. I'm guessing these owners are still looking for profits to make-up for the covid losses. They aren't giving it all or even a fair share to the players IMO.

They may also be preparing for a shutdown in 2027 and keeping their powder dry until they see what the new CBA brings.

[Kc61]

Major adds in free agency require major multi-season commitments. The 2026 budget is just the beginning of the discussion.

My expectation is that Krall will again come to realize he can’t make significant free agent adds. Reds owners and FO will again be “shocked” by FA prices. Even the second tier guys like Naylor and Suarez will be seeking major deals.

That thrusts Krall squarely in the “trade for talent” camp. You can trade for controllable, affordable talent. You just have to be willing to part with valuable players (pitchers).

The only group that can prove me wrong is Reds ownership by opening the pocket books with multi-year commitments.

[dfs]

Honestly curious what MLB team you see on the field that "plays team ball?"

[JCM11]

Honestly curious what MLB team you see on the field that "plays team ball?"

The Brewers out play their talent level by quite a bit due to team chemistry and culture. Now compare that to a team like the Mets with a 750 million dollar guy crying that not making the All Star team cost him a bonus

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm guessing the payroll will be in the $125 to $130 Range. Pretty similar to last year with a slight increase for optics given the attendance bump. I'm guessing these owners are still looking for profits to make-up for the covid losses. They aren't giving it all or even a fair share to the players IMO.

They may also be preparing for a shutdown in 2027 and keeping their powder dry until they see what the new CBA brings.

If it is $125-$130M, that's still substantial.

That's enough bump as to afford a true difference-maker on offense and either a solid second hitter or good closer. In 2025 terms, that would have been someone along the lines of Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernandez offensively, with either a Ha'seong Him or a Kirby Yates/ Carlos Estevez/ Aroldis Chapman in addition. Depending on the extra cash, they could also afford three or four cheap depth/ bench pieces (Will Benson, Sam Moll, Paul DeJong, and Ian Gibaut, for example).

[Dave C]

Money plays a huge part in the game in many different ways.

The Reds had a roster of players who were under acute financial pressure, many for the first time. I'd love to think that players play team ball regardless of money. But if there's one mantra all players have driven into their head, it's "This game is a business."

The Reds gave Votto a career contract and he performed fairly well during most of it I'd say. He gave all he had. I don't think that's going to happen again. I don't see a Votto on the roster and I don't think today's player would take a little over market today to be paid under market in 10 years.

A player on a AAAA team who wants to be one of the top players in the game and have a 15 years career knows he will be on 3-5 teams in all likelihood. Just to get to year 5, if you are producing more each year you know you won't be on the team you started on and are playing for that trade or FA shot that takes you to the large market team where you can pimp some shoes or other stuff for a few hundred million.

The better players run their financial careers like a business. The "game" is an entertainment business connected to consumer businesses. So, being really good at baseball and not being able to sell things doesn't lead to the biggest money. Being thought of as good at baseball while being a larger than life personality DOES end in piles of money. My guess is the modern player who's seen as a possible "face of the game" is given the tools to become more than just a baseball player by the team and the league.

[TNRED]

I know that I always feel "acute financial pressure" when I fear that my next year's pay may only be 2 million as opposed to 3 million. I just dont know how some of these guys make it on 700k a year.

[Dave C]

I know that I always feel "acute financial pressure" when I fear that my next year's pay may only be 2 million as opposed to 3 million. I just dont know how some of these guys make it on 700k a year.

Ask them again when they are 55 and passed up a college education or trade training to play a game for you. My guess is they give you a different answer.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Jealousy is one of humanity's worst traits, I think.

[Wheelhouse]

This has been on my mind for a while now. I appreciate that you were able to produce a more succinct post than I would have been able to. Do you think that the powers that be in the Reds dugout and front office think this way too?

Thank you! And, I'm not sure... I don't think it happens often that so much of a team's roster faces a critical financial year AT THE SAME MOMENT. So I don't know if there's a stock way to mitigate the way that influences team play. It's also not like the Reds have this bunch with bad attitudes--they're good guys, but that constant undertoe of financial pressure-the question of whether they will be able to monetize their talent... That can summon the "darker angels" of a baseball player at the plate. I'm not sure how you coach around that.

[TNRED]

Ask them again when they are 55 and passed up a college education or trade training to play a game for you. My guess is they give you a different answer.

One million dollars invested in the stock market yields about 110.000 per year and requires nothing more than sitting on your ass. How many of these guys do you think would be making over 110.000 per year working for the man in real life?

[RedsFanInMS]

Ask them again when they are 55 and passed up a college education or trade training to play a game for you. My guess is they give you a different answer.

On a $100,000 a year salary it would take you 20 years to make 2 million dollars, which these guys easily make in 1-3 years at a minimum, while trying to support a family, and most Americans never get close to that type of salary. Most people bust their asses all their entire lives to barely scrape by. No tears will be shed by me for these multi millionaires.

[WildcatFan]

On a $100,000 a year salary it would take you 20 years to make 2 million dollars, which these guys easily make in 1-3 years at a minimum, while trying to support a family, and most Americans never get close to that type of salary. Most people bust their asses all their entire lives to barely scrape by. No tears will be shed by me for these multi millionaires.

Overwhelmingly, their careers also last for 1-3 years, if they even make the big leagues at all.

[Sea Ray]

That's absolutely an issue that needs to be addressed this off-season. Where does that money come from?

Ownership may claim that 20th in attendance means 20th in payroll. That'd be $131M if we take 2025 numbers as a rough ballpark figure. That'd be a bump of around $12M from last season. Substantial enough to grab a good closer and a depth reliever or gamble.

That, however, doesn't take into account the bump from playoffs monies given to each team. The players, coaches, and staff get 3% of the total revenue of the gate receipts from the 26 guaranteed playoff games. For example, the Reds' playoff games in LA created an extra $20M in revenue just in ticket sales. As a playoff team, the Reds get a cut of that.

With the bump they received from attendance and the playoffs, assuming "break even," 15th-19th in total payroll makes sense.

That's somewhere from $135M - $160M.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers but the Reds were 19th in payroll this past year according to Sport Trac. Where do you think they ranked?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025

[CaiGuy]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers but the Reds were 19th in payroll this past year according to Sport Trac. Where do you think they ranked?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025

You are looking at the active roster.

In total commitments the ranked 23rd...STL was 20th at $131M.

[TNRED]

On a $100,000 a year salary it would take you 20 years to make 2 million dollars, which these guys easily make in 1-3 years at a minimum, while trying to support a family, and most Americans never get close to that type of salary. Most people bust their asses all their entire lives to barely scrape by. No tears will be shed by me for these multi millionaires.

I think very few fans actually grasp how much these guys make. People talk about paying some player a few million dollars like it is chump change in the couch. There also seems to be some sort of idea that a player is unfit and unable to do any type of work after baseball. It just blows my mind when a guy making 50k a year says a guy making 5 million a year is underpaid and deserves more.

[shaggy]

I think very few fans actually grasp how much these guys make. People talk about paying some player a few million dollars like it is chump change in the couch. There also seems to be some sort of idea that a player is unfit and unable to do any type of work after baseball. It just blows my mind when a guy making 50k a year says a guy making 5 million a year is underpaid and deserves more.

Considering the amount of money coming into these teams a few million dollars is chump change to them.

A person making $50K or 5 million can be underpaid and deserve more depending on their performance and how much they bring to the place they work. The dollar figure really doesn't matter.

[Sea Ray]

You are looking at the active roster.

In total commitments the ranked 23rd...STL was 20th at $131M.

Fine. Just wanted to know what numbers we're looking at. I doubt raising our payroll $12mill will satisfy most fans on this site. In fact our arbitration raises will likely eat up that much. It sure doesn't buy us a Schwarber or Alonso

[JCM11]

Fine. Just wanted to know what numbers we're looking at. I doubt raising our payroll $12mill will satisfy most fans on this site. In fact our arbitration raises will likely eat up that much. It sure doesn't buy us a Schwarber or Alonso

Depending on the arb eligible guys they bring back they should be starting the off season around 80-85 million. If payroll is 130+ they can definitely afford a top tier bat. If they want to move on from guys like Singer and Lux that we be even more $ to spend.

[Sea Ray]

Depending on the arb eligible guys they bring back they should be starting the off season around 80-85 million. If payroll is 130+ they can definitely afford a top tier bat. If they want to move on from guys like Singer and Lux that we be even more $ to spend.

If you're saying that they can afford a $30mill bat with a total payroll of $130mill, I disagree. The only example I can see of that in 2025 was St Louis paying Arenado and that didn't work out too well for them. Their 4th highest paid guy was making less than $3mill. That kind of top heaviness is not a model for success

Reds have 14 players that are arbitration eligible this year. The only significant savings by non tendering (defined by $3mill or above) would be Lux. A lot of these guys will be getting significant raises. Then there's Elly. Whether he signs an extension or not, my guess is they won't make him continue to play for the minimum. That'd be bad optics

[backbencher]

If you're saying that they can afford a $30mill bat with a total payroll of $130mill, I disagree. The only example I can see of that in 2025 was St Louis paying Arenado and that didn't work out too well for them. Their 4th highest paid guy was making less than $3mill. That kind of top heaviness is not a model for success

Reds have 14 players that are arbitration eligible this year. The only significant savings by non tendering (defined by $3mill or above) would be Lux. A lot of these guys will be getting significant raises. Then there's Elly. Whether he signs an extension or not, my guess is they won't make him continue to play for the minimum. That'd be bad optics

More important, any player who can get $30MM for one year will demand a contract for multiple years.

Open budget in 2026 really does next to nothing in terms of landing a "top" name. You need three, five, ten years of flexibility.

Now, I'm all for the team massively overpaying a guy to lure him into a one-year deal - $50MM for a $30MM player, that kind of thing. I just don't think many players would go for it.

The other, more realistic option is prove-me deal for a guy who has fallen out of favor. Even there, though, bidding is competitive (e.g., Alonso).

And if you do bring in that guy, I'd want it to be a redass type. The highest paid player on the team has to be the hardest-working and the most committed to winning. Doubly so if the guy's comp is out of whack with the rest of the roster.

- - - Updated - - -


I think very few fans actually grasp how much these guys make. People talk about paying some player a few million dollars like it is chump change in the couch. There also seems to be some sort of idea that a player is unfit and unable to do any type of work after baseball. It just blows my mind when a guy making 50k a year says a guy making 5 million a year is underpaid and deserves more.

Yes and no.

I used to work with a guy who spent good parts of five seasons in the bigs, including with the Reds. Worked entry-level with us, 10 years older than everyone else in his job.

[757690]

The Brewers are paying Yelich $24M a year
The Mariners are paying Castillo $24M a year and J Rodriquez $20M a year
The Tigers are paying Baez $25M a year.

[RedsFanInMS]

Overwhelmingly, their careers also last for 1-3 years, if they even make the big leagues at all.

Well, then they've made in 1-3 years what it takes most people 30 years. Boo freaking hoo.

[JCM11]

If you're saying that they can afford a $30mill bat with a total payroll of $130mill, I disagree. The only example I can see of that in 2025 was St Louis paying Arenado and that didn't work out too well for them. Their 4th highest paid guy was making less than $3mill. That kind of top heaviness is not a model for success

Reds have 14 players that are arbitration eligible this year. The only significant savings by non tendering (defined by $3mill or above) would be Lux. A lot of these guys will be getting significant raises. Then there's Elly. Whether he signs an extension or not, my guess is they won't make him continue to play for the minimum. That'd be bad optics

They paid 37 million to Martinez and Candy in 2025. They can pay 30 for a Schwarber or Alonso in 2026.

[Kc61]

Would like to see Reds add 5 wins next season. 88 wins should be a clear step up. They’d be a strong wild card contender rather than a marginal one.

The issue isn’t merely aggregate payroll, it’s allocation of resources

Just as folks criticize ownership for the size of the budget, the FO has a job to use assets for a well balanced team.

[UKFlounder]

They paid 37 million to Martinez and Candy in 2025. They can pay 30 for a Schwarber or Alonso in 2026.

They’ll still be paying Candy in 2026

[CaiGuy]

I find it odd that it's a concern what "%" of the payroll a player takes up.

Would you rather 1 really good player or 3 mediocre players?

They have plenty of cheap production to absorb a larger contract.

[Sea Ray]

The Brewers are paying Yelich $24M a year
The Mariners are paying Castillo $24M a year and J Rodriquez $20M a year
The Tigers are paying Baez $25M a year.

I don’t know what you’re referencing but if it was me, my comment regarded the number $30 million


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[Sea Ray]

They paid 37 million to Martinez and Candy in 2025. They can pay 30 for a Schwarber or Alonso in 2026.

You think we should pay that as part of a 7 year deal?


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[backbencher]

I find it odd that it's a concern what "%" of the payroll a player takes up.

Would you rather 1 really good player or 3 mediocre players?

They have plenty of cheap production to absorb a larger contract.

I don't think it's a philosophical issue so much as risk allocation. When 25% of your payroll gets hurt, it changes the season. It's worse for pitchers, as injuries often are two seasons long - which is why oversized smaller market contracts tend to be hitters.

If the Reds were going to do big money LTCs, Votto and Griffey were exactly the right kinds of players for the Reds to do it with.

One thing we hopefully can agree on (and hopefully the Reds can see fully) is that the mid-tier types like Moose and Candy are terrible places to drop multi-year money. Myers was a bad signing but at least it was only a year.

[Ladeda]

Money plays a huge part in the game in many different ways. I'd like to look at how money affected the 2025 Reds in one particular context: contract status.


The Reds had a roster of players who were under acute financial pressure, many for the first time. I'd love to think that players play team ball regardless of money. But if there's one mantra all players have driven into their head, it's "This game is a business."

As much as "good at bats", "advance the runner", "wait for your pitch" etc. was preached, this team ranked 21st in MLB in fewest pitches seen. They were free swingers. It's hard to coach team baseball to a roster that is so universally under acute financial pressure. Mix in at bats that were thrown away in recovery from injuries, you get a team that had the painful offensive woes the Reds had.

What needs to be done? 1) Tito and the coaches need to be aware of this team wide financial fear, and coach to it 2) the front office needs to provide financial visibility where it can (this means deciding who you really want long term) and 3) the Reds need to acquire a strong veteran hitter known for being committed to fundamental baseball.

Oh, and ditch the money machine in the dugout.


This is the biggest bunch of bollocks I have ever heard.

There is tremendous pressure on every MLB player. 20% of MLB players only play 1 year or less in the majors. That's it. For 1 in 5 players, they made it to the majors and in a blink of an eye, they never made it back. I think the median player plays 3 years in the majors. 50% of all MLB players play 3 years or less.

There is pressure to make the majors, and there is pressure to STAY in the majors. The pressure is on going for baseball players!!!! Even those that are fortunate to make it to FA and get a big contract (which is very few,) there is still pressure to perform.

Other teams do not have a problem coaching teams that are under (hilariously, your words not mine, ACUTE financial stress.) The reason some guys didn't perform this year-- is that they aren't good enough. There are plenty of players in the majors who do not make a lot of money and perform well, and they do that because they are better players. Every player on every team has to wait 6 years until FA and 3 years until arbitration (sans the Super 2's players.) Every player on every team is under pressure, but you are using this as an excuse as to why some Reds players didn't perform. They didn't perform bc they aren't good enough. In fact, Friedl hit better this year than last-- same for Benson. Steer's OPS was almost identical to the previous year-- so in reality, they performed on par or better than expected leading up to arbitration. Santillan is Arb 1 right? He did well too. So the idea that those players were affected by acute financial stress doesn't jive--- as they performed better this year than 2024. McLain didn't-- but he is never going to recreate 2023 with his absurdly high BABIP that year.


The painful, offensive woes are because the Reds hitters aren't good enough!!!!!

Nick Martinez isn't under financial stress-- he rocked out a 4.72 ERA as a starter this year. He did so, not because of financial stress, but because of his overall ability. Joey Votto won the MVP in his 3rd full season-- he hadn't made a lot of money up until that point. He was fine being under financial stress.

You know who was stressed? Jake Fraley. Having a child with leukemia is legit, changes your life type of stress. Matt Mclain getting a $4.625 million signing bonus at age 21, is not someone who lives a stressful financial life.

[mth123]

Would like to see Reds add 5 wins next season. 88 wins should be a clear step up. They’d be a strong wild card contender rather than a marginal one.

The issue isn’t merely aggregate payroll, it’s allocation of resources

Just as folks criticize ownership for the size of the budget, the FO has a job to use assets for a well balanced team.

I agree with all of this except 88 wins is aiming too low. Aim for 95 and be happy if you get 90 when all the unforeseen things go wrong.

[JCM11]

You think we should pay that as part of a 7 year deal?


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Kyle Tucker is the only top FA bat that has a chance to get 7 years this off season. Schwarber, Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman etc will be in the 3 or 4 year range.

[backbencher]

Kyle Tucker is the only top FA bat that has a chance to get 7 years this off season. Schwarber, Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman etc will be in the 3 or 4 year range.

I think @Sea Ray is referring to Alonso's public statement that he wants a seven year deal.

But either way, I don't think the team is going to want to be paying 33 or 34 year old Pete Alonso $30MM in the A2/A3 years for Lodolo, EDLC, Friedl, Santillan, McLain, etc.

[JustaFan]

while I don't disagree that many Reds players are not good enough, with the reclining offense versus pitching I can only ask what is the current norm on what is good enough? for an offensive player?

I believe that one indicator of good enough is batting average with players in scoring position I would be interested in what you believe is being good enough with runners on scoring position

Speer .254
Stephenson .286
Hayes, A .308
Trevino .208
Marte .287
Friedl .259
Benson .246
Elly .290
Lux .287
McClain .180

[TNRED]

This is the biggest bunch of bollocks I have ever heard.

There is tremendous pressure on every MLB player. 20% of MLB players only play 1 year or less in the majors. That's it. For 1 in 5 players, they made it to the majors and in a blink of an eye, they never made it back. I think the median player plays 3 years in the majors. 50% of all MLB players play 3 years or less.

There is pressure to make the majors, and there is pressure to STAY in the majors. The pressure is on going for baseball players!!!! Even those that are fortunate to make it to FA and get a big contract (which is very few,) there is still pressure to perform.

Other teams do not have a problem coaching teams that are under (hilariously, your words not mine, ACUTE financial stress.) The reason some guys didn't perform this year-- is that they aren't good enough. There are plenty of players in the majors who do not make a lot of money and perform well, and they do that because they are better players. Every player on every team has to wait 6 years until FA and 3 years until arbitration (sans the Super 2's players.) Every player on every team is under pressure, but you are using this as an excuse as to why some Reds players didn't perform. They didn't perform bc they aren't good enough. In fact, Friedl hit better this year than last-- same for Benson. Steer's OPS was almost identical to the previous year-- so in reality, they performed on par or better than expected leading up to arbitration. Santillan is Arb 1 right? He did well too. So the idea that those players were affected by acute financial stress doesn't jive--- as they performed better this year than 2024. McLain didn't-- but he is never going to recreate 2023 with his absurdly high BABIP that year.


The painful, offensive woes are because the Reds hitters aren't good enough!!!!!

Nick Martinez isn't under financial stress-- he rocked out a 4.72 ERA as a starter this year. He did so, not because of financial stress, but because of his overall ability. Joey Votto won the MVP in his 3rd full season-- he hadn't made a lot of money up until that point. He was fine being under financial stress.

You know who was stressed? Jake Fraley. Having a child with leukemia is legit, changes your life type of stress. Matt Mclain getting a $4.625 million signing bonus at age 21, is not someone who lives a stressful financial life.

Financial stress is the guy that makes $20 an hour and has two kids and he has to buy groceries and pay the power bill and his truck is on empty and pay day is 4 days away.

[JCM11]

I think @Sea Ray is referring to Alonso's public statement that he wants a seven year deal.

But either way, I don't think the team is going to want to be paying 33 or 34 year old Pete Alonso $30MM in the A2/A3 years for Lodolo, EDLC, Friedl, Santillan, McLain, etc.

All of those guys besides Elly should be replaceable by home grown talent when/if they get expensive. If they can't replace guys like that with cheap in house options then the drafting/developing side has failed.

[Kingspoint]

That's absolutely an issue that needs to be addressed this off-season. Where does that money come from?

Ownership may claim that 20th in attendance means 20th in payroll. That'd be $131M if we take 2025 numbers as a rough ballpark figure. That'd be a bump of around $12M from last season. Substantial enough to grab a good closer and a depth reliever or gamble.

That, however, doesn't take into account the bump from playoffs monies given to each team. The players, coaches, and staff get 3% of the total revenue of the gate receipts from the 26 guaranteed playoff games. For example, the Reds' playoff games in LA created an extra $20M in revenue just in ticket sales. As a playoff team, the Reds get a cut of that.

With the bump they received from attendance and the playoffs, assuming "break even," 15th-19th in total payroll makes sense.

That's somewhere from $135M - $160M.

We start the season $15M in the hole (what we owe Candelario).

- - - Updated - - -


Honestly curious what MLB team you see on the field that "plays team ball?"

Easy answer.

Milwaukee.

Cleveland.

[Kingspoint]

The Reds gave Votto a career contract and he performed fairly well during most of it I'd say. He gave all he had. I don't think that's going to happen again. I don't see a Votto on the roster and I don't think today's player would take a little over market today to be paid under market in 10 years.

A player on a AAAA team who wants to be one of the top players in the game and have a 15 years career knows he will be on 3-5 teams in all likelihood. Just to get to year 5, if you are producing more each year you know you won't be on the team you started on and are playing for that trade or FA shot that takes you to the large market team where you can pimp some shoes or other stuff for a few hundred million.

The better players run their financial careers like a business. The "game" is an entertainment business connected to consumer businesses. So, being really good at baseball and not being able to sell things doesn't lead to the biggest money. Being thought of as good at baseball while being a larger than life personality DOES end in piles of money. My guess is the modern player who's seen as a possible "face of the game" is given the tools to become more than just a baseball player by the team and the league.

I bet you that Cal Raleigh stays a Mariner. He's just had the single greatest season by a player in Major League History in his year 5. That he caught, played every game, played in a Pitcher-friendly park and never faded, but got better and is thriving in post-season, should make for a 1/2 a Billion dollar contract for 7 years in Los Angeles or New York, but I doubt that he takes it.

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Ask them again when they are 55 and passed up a college education or trade training to play a game for you. My guess is they give you a different answer.

They don't play it for us. What delusion are you under?

[Kingspoint]

Jealousy is one of humanity's worst traits, I think.

The jealousy of a hitter not to be able to hit in the GAB when he's hitting in T-Mobile instead.

[Kingspoint]

I think very few fans actually grasp how much these guys make. People talk about paying some player a few million dollars like it is chump change in the couch. There also seems to be some sort of idea that a player is unfit and unable to do any type of work after baseball. It just blows my mind when a guy making 50k a year says a guy making 5 million a year is underpaid and deserves more.

They gripe if they don't get enough per diem, or the quality of the spread isn't as good as the spread somewhere else.

It's a self-centered profession where they focus entirely on themselves in order to be successful. They don't have any other choice.

[Kingspoint]

They paid 37 million to Martinez and Candy in 2025. They can pay 30 for a Schwarber or Alonso in 2026.

No, they can't. They have to pay Candy another $15M for 2026.

23168

[JCM11]

No, they can't. They have to pay Candy another $15M for 2026.



They'll be around 85 million counting Candy's $ and most of the arb guys being retained. They absolutely can if they want to. There's also the option to back load a deal or use deferred $. I'm over the excuses.

[herbdizzle]

Pete Alonso has no chance of getting a 7 year deal let alone a 5 year deal.

The Reds should not be afraid to spend money for the next 2-3 years. Offer Alonso 3/100 and he probably takes it.

Thats Martinez money plus another 10 from either increasing payroll to $130 million range or letting some mid guys like Barlow Hays and Lux go.

[Sea Ray]

Pete Alonso has no chance of getting a 7 year deal let alone a 5 year deal.

The Reds should not be afraid to spend money for the next 2-3 years. Offer Alonso 3/100 and he probably takes it.

Thats Martinez money plus another 10 from either increasing payroll to $130 million range or letting some mid guys like Barlow Hays and Lux go.

We’re also going to need money for the bullpen


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[SunDeck]

The logical thing about attendance and performance is that the former follows the latter, not the other way around. Secondly, a key part of expanding market share for any business (including vegetable distribution) is investing in the company, i.e, buying new equipment, building factories, seeking new investors, etc. Yes, growing attendance should translate into higher payroll, but if the Reds claim it's a 1:1 correspondence, and that's their long term strategy and the best they can do then they're just full of it.

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[TNRED]

We naturally see things from a fan perspective and not from a owners perspective that has to make money for investors. A willing team will definitely bring in increased revenue but how much? There is basically a minimum amount of money the team will bring in no matter how bad they are. A million fans will show up even if they never win a game. They get revenue sharing funds and tv dollars and some merchandise dollars. So the question is how much difference is revenue going to be for the Reds between a 90 win season and a 75 win season? 20 million? 50 million? 100 million? How much will payroll have to increase to get those 90 wins? 10 million? 50 million? Its a gamble and the odds probably arent really all that good. Its like going into a casino and laying down 20k in order to hope to win 30k and your odds are 50/50 at best. The real prize for ownership is the increased value of the franchise that has little to do with on field performance.

[JCM11]

We’re also going to need money for the bullpen


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If they sign an Alonso that frees up Steer to be traded for a cheap RP, and they will still have $ to spend in FA. There's no excuses this off season either they are serious about getting this team over the hump or they are satisfied with 83 wins being the peak of Reds baseball(as some here seem to be).

[UPRedsFan]

If they sign an Alonso that frees up Steer to be traded for a cheap RP, and they will still have $ to spend in FA. There's no excuses this off season either they are serious about getting this team over the hump or they are satisfied with 83 wins being the peak of Reds baseball(as some here seem to be).

If they sign Alonso and Steer is traded, who plays LF? Hays for 12M will be gone if they shell out for Alonso.

I think it's more likely they make a 1 or 2 year run at Schwarber for LF and see if he bites.

[JCM11]

If they sign Alonso and Steer is traded, who plays LF? Hays for 12M will be gone if they shell out for Alonso.

I think it's more likely they make a 1 or 2 year run at Schwarber for LF and see if he bites.

Hays will be lucky to top the 5 million he got in 2025. They could trade Singer for a Taylor Ward in a salary neutral deal.

[Kc61]

Reds might trade for Taylor Ward if they want to keep the additions short term. Ward is a FA after next season. Maybe Reds say 2027 will bring a new CBA, let’s keep our signings short, we don’t know the shape of the table thereafter.

OTOH, Reds might want some years of control for new position players. If they’re going to fix the weakness, why revert back after one season? Get a mid-order bat to team with EDLC for 2-3 years and that worry is gone for awhile.

They could be thinking either way.

[Wheelhouse]

Honestly curious what MLB team you see on the field that "plays team ball?"

Milwaukee. They see more pitches than anyone in the game, play tight defense, and are exhausting to play. MLB teams, in the series immediately after playing the Brewers play ~.400, namely, they get ground down by the Brewers. Team ball.

Fyi, MLB teams play at ~.600 clip after playing the Reds. Easy, breezy at bats. Energizing to a pitching staff.

[Wheelhouse]

This has been on my mind for a while now. I appreciate that you were able to produce a more succinct post than I would have been able to. Do you think that the powers that be in the Reds dugout and front office think this way too?

I don't know. The tough thing for coaches and the FO is: how do you tell a player "play team ball" and "baseball is a business" at the same time. But I imagine solving that is why you bring in a manager like Tito.