Griffey in 2004

[beb30]

I was wondering what everyone's predictions will be for him whether it'd be getting hurt or statistical wise?

[Krusty]

For what it's worth.....I think Griffey will remain healthy and put up 45+ HRs along with 110+ RBIs.

[Phoenix]

That old saying "follow the trend" would lead me to believe that Griffey will get hurt in 2004. Hopefully, it will be minor and still allow him to post semi-big numbers: .280 35 HR 110 RBI

[SirFelixCat]

All I want is one injury-free (for the most part...major-free at least) season. Just one. Growing up, he was who I wanted to be...all I want is one injury-free season.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally posted by Krusty
For what it's worth.....I think Griffey will remain healthy and put up 45+ HRs along with 110+ RBIs.

I agree with Krusty, but I do believe that if Griffey shows good health and performance as some of us expect that he will be traded because of his contract, medical history and risk.

[paulrichjr]

http://www.foxsports.com/content/view?contentId=2081690
Cross your fingers: Brian Goldberg, agent for Reds CF Ken Griffey, says Griffey is way ahead of schedule in recovering from shoulder surgery and on schedule in recovering from ankle surgery. Griffey could have been ready to start spring training on January 1, Goldberg says.


I saw this and am not sure if someone else has posted it but here goes anyway... This sounds good.

[Red Leader]

Like some others, I find it difficult to believe that Griffey will stay healthy the whole year in 2004. I DON'T believe that he will spend the majority of 2004 on the DL, however. That being the case, my projections for Junior in 2004 are: .282 avg, 31 HR, 89 RBI. Anything more than that, I would consider a bonus.

[Team Clark]

154 Games. 42 HR's 133 RBI. Sit out 5 games with a tight Hammy in August. Junior will also hit .295 and have an OBP of .444. This is what the crystal ball says.

Adam Dunn .248 47HR's and 116 RBI. 158 K's and 98 BB's.

Kearns .311 28HR and 79 RBI. 131 Games played. Kearns goes down in August for a month.

Griff and Kearns go to ALL Star Game.

[cincinnati chili]

Team Clark:

I love the optimism. I wish I could work around people as optimistic as you all day.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by Team Clark
Junior will also hit .295 and have an OBP of .444. This is what the crystal ball says.

.

You might want to see if the thing is plugged in :)

Junior has never OBPed more then 408 and has a career OBP of .379

.360-.380 sounds about right to me

[Ohioballplayer]

.285 41hr - 118 rbi's for Jr.

.236 26hr - 68 rbi's for dunn, with 165so's

.305 25hr - 102 rbi's for Kearns if he bats 4th

[Ohioballplayer]

TC, 47 hr's for Dunn? that's a :lol:
But I am glad there is 1 optimist on this board:thumbup:

Oh and if he hits 47hr's this year I will buy you a case of your favorite beer (that's a promise) :beerme:

[deltachi8]

Jr: .265, 25, 72 (misses 4-6 weeks)
Dunn: .216, 24, 67, 170 K
Kearns: .288, 28, 91

[westofyou]

Pecota says.............




Last First TM LG AGE AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG

Dunn Adam CIN NL 24 453 126 26 2 32 86 124 11 4 .278 .401 .560

Griffey Ken CIN NL 34 218 58 11 1 13 30 50 1 1 .265 .361 .502

Kearns CIN NL 24 369 103 21 2 17 48 78 7 3 .278 .369 .484

[Phoenix]

I think this is the make or break year for Dunn. He'll either move forward and start to live up to those early expectations, or he'll be exposed as just a marginal HR hitter who strikes out way too much.

[westofyou]

or he'll be exposed as just a marginal HR hitter who strikes out way too much.

Who just happens to gets on base at a .380 clip

[GIK]

We should all hope for the 1998-2000 Griffey:

.281 | 586 AB | 48 HR | 133 RBI | 342 TB

and not the 2001-2003 Griffey:

.271 | 242 AB | 14 HR | 38 RBI | 124 TB

[paulrichjr]

Originally posted by GIK
We should all hope for the 1998-2000 Griffey:

.281 | 586 AB | 48 HR | 133 RBI | 342 TB

and not the 2001-2003 Griffey:

.271 | 242 AB | 14 HR | 38 RBI | 124 TB

WoW!!! Those numbers for 3 years are amazing. I never realized that they were that bad. Man he really has been in bad shape the last 3 years. I knew it but never saw the full 3 years on paper. Didn't he hit like 5 home runs right before he blew up this year? Maybe the last week or 2? That is amazing that throwing out that little blip he would have had less than 10 home runs over a bunch of games. I really feel sorry for this guy. I hope he turns into Mark McGwire after his 2 or 3 seasons of nothing.

I'm betting on 38 home runs and 108 RBIs. .279 batting average but most importantly 140 games played.

[westofyou]

IMO "guessing" counting stats like RBI's is a complete shot in the dark, especially considering that the batting order is somewhat unknown, nor are we aware of Mileys preference for a #2 hitter (ball mover/speed or OB guy)

A lineup that went Jimenez-Dunn-Griffey will trump a Jimenez-Larkin/SS- Griffey, furthermore a Jimenez-Dunn-Kearns-Griffey would provide more opps.

TC, if the trio were to compile your predictions they would have accounted for 49% of the RBI's last year, as it is in post strike Reds land the Reds have averaged 712 rbi's a season, with highs of 820 in 1999 and low of 612 in 1997.

[GIK]

Originally posted by paulrichjr
WoW!!! Those numbers for 3 years are amazing. I never realized that they were that bad. Man he really has been in bad shape the last 3 years. I knew it but never saw the full 3 years on paper. Didn't he hit like 5 home runs right before he blew up this year? Maybe the last week or 2? That is amazing that throwing out that little blip he would have had less than 10 home runs over a bunch of games. I really feel sorry for this guy. I hope he turns into Mark McGwire after his 2 or 3 seasons of nothing.

I'm betting on 38 home runs and 108 RBIs. .279 batting average but most importantly 140 games played.

Paul, those numbers are averaged for each set of those 3 years. The total numbers are:


'98-'00: .281 | 1759 AB | 144 HR | 398 RBI | 1025 TB
'01-'03: .271 | 727 AB | 43 HR | 114 RBI | 372 TB

[buckeyenut]

Originally posted by Team Clark
154 Games. 42 HR's 133 RBI. Sit out 5 games with a tight Hammy in August. Junior will also hit .295 and have an OBP of .444. This is what the crystal ball says.

Adam Dunn .248 47HR's and 116 RBI. 158 K's and 98 BB's.

Kearns .311 28HR and 79 RBI. 131 Games played. Kearns goes down in August for a month.

Griff and Kearns go to ALL Star Game.

OBP is high for Jr. Beyond that, I think he does that.

Dunn hits 35-40 HR with the rest of those numbers in the ballpark.

Kearns hits 90 RBIs but everything else is ballpark too.

Nice.

Others.

Jiminez bats .310 with a .380 OBP and scores 120 runs out of the leadoff spot

Larkin bats .270 in about 400 ABs with 12-15 HR and 50 RBIs.

Casey bats .290 with 20 HR and 75 RBI

LaRue bats .240 with 20 HR in 200 AB

Larson bats .250 with a .320 OBP and 20 HR in 500 AB

Pena is your primary OF backup and gets 250 AB, due to a reasonably healthy year for everyone. Bats .230 with 10 HR, 30 BB and 60 Ks

Freel is your primary IF backup. He gets 400 AB, much at SS when Jiminez plays there and Freel takes over 2B. He bats .280 with little power or walks but adds some speed and scrapiron tendancies to the club.

I wouldn't dare project the pitching. :)

[westofyou]

Jiminez bats .310 with a .380 OBP and scores 120 runs out of the leadoff spot

Fun facts.

Reds since 1982 (post BRM)



CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1982-2003
OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS YEAR R OBA OBA
1 Eric Davis 1987 120 .399 .060
2 Barry Larkin 1996 117 .410 .071
3 Barry Larkin 1999 108 .390 .039
4 Greg Vaughn 1999 104 .347 -.004
5 Sean Casey 1999 103 .399 .048
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 100 .387 .036
7 Barry Larkin 1995 98 .394 .053
T8 Chris Sabo 1990 95 .343 .013
T8 Kal Daniels 1988 95 .397 .077
T10 Mike Cameron 1999 93 .357 .005
T10 Barry Larkin 1998 93 .397 .058



BRM Era



CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1970-1981
OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS YEAR R OBA OBA
1 Pete Rose 1976 130 .404 .075
2 George Foster 1977 124 .382 .044
3 Joe Morgan 1972 122 .417 .091
4 Pete Rose 1970 120 .385 .045
5 Ken Griffey Sr. 1977 117 .389 .051
6 Joe Morgan 1973 116 .406 .074
7 Pete Rose 1973 115 .401 .069
T8 Joe Morgan 1976 113 .444 .115
T8 Joe Morgan 1977 113 .417 .080
T10 Bobby Tolan 1970 112 .384 .045
T10 Pete Rose 1975 112 .406 .070

[GIK]

I predict for 2004:

550 AB | .280 AVG | 41 HR | 111 RBI | 80 BB | 111 SO

[Boss-Hog]

LaRue bats .240 with 20 HR in 200 AB

:confused:

[Redsfaithful]

.270/.365/.530

20-25 Home runs

360 at bats

[LvJ]

Griffey: .285, 43 HR, 140 RBI

Kearns: .309, 26 HR, 132 RBI

Dunn: .243, 31 HR, 79 RBI

LaRue: .250, 22 HR, 82 RBI

Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

Jimenez: .299, 17 HR, 66 RBI

Casey: .314, 20 HR, 79 RBI

What? :)

[Spring~Fields]

Originally posted by LvJ
Griffey: .285, 43 HR, 140 RBI

Kearns: .309, 26 HR, 132 RBI

Dunn: .243, 31 HR, 79 RBI

LaRue: .250, 22 HR, 82 RBI

Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

Jimenez: .299, 17 HR, 66 RBI

Casey: .314, 20 HR, 79 RBI

What? :)

That is a pretty good estimate and not far fetched, well maybe Larue is a bit of stretch, but the rest can easily do that. Looks like an offensive dynamo to me. :thumbup:

[westofyou]

Last year the Reds top 7 RBI guys accounted for 60% of the teams RBI's, if the top 7 Reds RBI guys were as LVJ predicts and the percentage stayed the same the Reds would have 1113 rbi's, you'd have to think there be about 30-60 unearned runs add that and you have say...1150 so then that would be 190 runs better last years Red Sox or the best Rockies year.

The HR numbers add up to 187, the Reds have topped 200 HR's 3 times, 1956, 1999 and 2000. Think about 30 other HR's at the least from the bench and we'd have 217..... 4behind the 1956 team.

About 7 runs and 1.33 HR a game

I'd take that.

[paulrichjr]

Originally posted by GIK
Paul, those numbers are averaged for each set of those 3 years. The total numbers are:


'98-'00: .281 | 1759 AB | 144 HR | 398 RBI | 1025 TB
'01-'03: .271 | 727 AB | 43 HR | 114 RBI | 372 TB

Man I thought I was losing it... Which I guess I was. I kept thinking man this guy has really stunk. Well Ok thanks. I didn't look at the 98-00 numbers but instead just kept staring at those 01-03 numbers....

[TeamBoone]

Don't forget... the pitching in the NL central is a whole lot better this year.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally posted by TeamBoone
Don't forget... the pitching in the NL central is a whole lot better this year.

Yes, but the East and West is nothing exciting and the rest of the Central is nothing after Chicago, St.Louis, and Houston. Even St. Louis has some question marks.

[KronoRed]

Originally posted by LvJ
Griffey: .285, 43 HR, 140 RBI

Kearns: .309, 26 HR, 132 RBI

Dunn: .243, 31 HR, 79 RBI

LaRue: .250, 22 HR, 82 RBI

Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

Jimenez: .299, 17 HR, 66 RBI

Casey: .314, 20 HR, 79 RBI

What? :)

I like these numbers with the exception of Larson and Larue, I don't think they come anywhere near those.

[LvJ]

Yeah, LaRue's batting average and RBI are probally too far fetched, but if Larson is the talent they think he is - he should be able to achive those numbers. I'm hoping so atleast.

[GAC]

Our luck, Jr will pull a "Vanderwal" and tear his ACL while shoveling his driveway in Florida! :p

[buckeyenut]

Originally posted by Boss-Hog
:confused:

It should have been 400 AB not 200 for Larue in my prediction. 20 HR in 400 AB.

[RedsBaron]

I don't even want to look at this post in October, but here goes:
Griffey-.291 46 117
Dunn-.271 44 120
Kearns-.322 34 118

Hey, it's February and every fan has a right to be optimistic at this time of year.

[Marty and Joe]

I'm optimistic on Jr. also....gotta be healthy sooner or later...and, if he is, lookout Cincy!

Jr. .289, 43, 121
Kearns .294, 26, 101
Dunn .245, 34, 76

[deltachi8]

Larson: .265, 28 HR, 90 RBI

well, im all for optomisim, but...there is a limit.

Larson: .189, 2 hr, 9 rbi, sent down/designated for assignment by the end of april. FeLo at 3b.

Lopez: .252, 12, 47

[missionhockey21]

Kearns, if healthy will at least hit 30 hr's... easily. I think the 26 HR predictions are pretty low.