Reasons for Adam Dunn to hit 2nd

[#RedsRule#]

Hello to the fine people on this board.

Given the prospective roster of talent that the Reds have available, I believe that Adam Dunn should be hitting second in the order. Here are the reasons:

1. Adam Dunn is a high OBP guy. Getting on base is one of the primary jobs for a top of the order guy.

2. Walk, Strikeout or Hit, Adam Dunn looks at alot of pitches every at bat. This would let the hitters behind him get a solid feel for what the pitcher has that particular game.

3. Adam Dunn is not a typical run producer. His RBIs come as a result of his power, not of his disciplined hitting. Almost half of his RBI total comes from knocking himself in, therefor the Reds would not be losing run production by placing their best power hitter 2nd in the lineup.

4. Adam Dunn has good speed for a player of his size, and he can steal an occasional base. The only other player that the Reds could put batting 2nd that has better speed than Dunn would be Austin Kearns, but doing that would force Dave Miley into stacking his left handed bats in the order again, something that makes me nervous. (As an aside, Pena has better speed than both Kearns and Dunn, but batting him second when he has the least discipline of all the hitters on the team would be a disaster.)

So, in my admittedly often naive opinion, it makes sense to bat Dunn 2nd. It plays to his strengths and minimizes his weakness. Dunn can stay the same player he is and still be productive. The Reds are never going to be a "small ball" team with the current roster, and his .400 OBP looks alot better at the front of the line-up with Kearns, Griffey and Casey waiting to drive him in, than it would look 5th when you have Randa, LaRue and Lopez to drive him in.

[Moosie52]

So, you're saying he hardly ever drives in more than 1 run, so bat him second in the order? Sounds good to me. If your leadoff guy is doing his job, it could give Dunn more RBI's.

[BuckU]

I agree, however, I think he is the best #3 hitter on the roster. Either Freel or D'Lo leadoff, then Casey in the 2 hole, then Dunn.

In a perfect world the leadoff man would get on, go first to third on Casey's blooper to left, then have Dunn hit a three run homerun.

Then reality sets in and you ralize Dunn would either stike out or hit into a double play, but hey, atleast the runner on third would score... ;)

[BadFundamentals]

I believe there is growing support for Dunn getting a shot in the 2 hole for the reasons you mentioned.

The spillover benefit is it will help to cut to the meat of what Dunn is and will become. Is he a budding McGwire, Reggie Jackson, Thome, Killebrew, McCovey or is he Bo Jackson, Craig Wilson, Pat Burrell, Rob Deer?

No doubt he will be challenged more often than he has been if he has Casey, Griffey and a producing Kearns/Pena behind him. I say let's find out. End all the speculation. If he can be productive from the 2 hole I may even become an Adam Dunn fan.

[#RedsRule#]

I agree, however, I think he is the best #3 hitter on the roster. Either Freel or D'Lo leadoff, then Casey in the 2 hole, then Dunn.


I looked at Casey batting 2nd, and just can't see it. For all the man hustles on every play, he is still one of the slowest human beings I have seen. I would at least like a man who can score from first on a double in the alley.

[Git-R-Dunn]

Adam should never hit second, maybe 3,4, or 5 but #2 no way.

[flyer85]

Over 60% of Dunn's ABs result in an outcome(K, BB, HR) where the ball is not in play. I was thinking of this exact topic this morning and RedsRule has nailed it.

[flyer85]

Adam should never hit second, maybe 3,4, or 5 but #2 no way.

Must be one of Larry The Cable Guy's relatives.

[Weasle 25]

Shoot Bob "boowho" Boone batted him leadoff why not bat him secound, thats when freels not in. I say bat him 5 or 6 just because he strikes out way too much.

[flyer85]

I say bat him 5 or 6 just because he strikes out way too much.

He has the highest OBP on the team. Maybe it would make sense to bat him before players who might actaully drive him in when he gets on.

[westofyou]

I say bat him 5 or 6 just because he strikes out way too much.

He gets on base more than any other Red, he makes less outs than any other Red, he has more extra base hits than any other Red.

By all means let's limit his at bats.

[#RedsRule#]

I say bat him 5 or 6 just because he strikes out way too much.

Batting him 5th or 6th means that when he strikes out he is failing to drive in runs.

If he strikes out batting 2nd the damage is quite a bit less. And there is the chance that some of his 100+ walks will increase the RBI totals of Kearns, Griffey and Casey, rather than the runners left on base statistics of LaRue

[flyer85]

Batting him 5th or 6th means that when he strikes out he is failing to drive in runs.

If he strikes out batting 2nd the damage is quite a bit less. And there is the chance that some of his 100+ walks will increase the RBI totals of Kearns, Griffey and Casey, rather than the runners left on base statistics of LaRue

Almost makes me wonder if I have an alter ego posting out there.

[BadFundamentals]

Shoot Bob "boowho" Boone batted him leadoff why not bat him secound, thats when freels not in. I say bat him 5 or 6 just because he strikes out way too much.

Yeah....6 spot works too for type of player he is now but really it is time to get the bottom of the dunners.

In the 6th spot with an Aurilla, Lopez and/or LaRue behind him he may in fact get pitched around and just be a walkman. He isn't good enough hitter to bat 3,4, 5 at this juncture. He's getting 4 mil+ now so time to find out about dunners ! ! Bat him second and see if he can keep OBP up etc.. etc....

[flyer85]

Just can't help myself

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings"

--Rob Neyer

[#RedsRule#]

Almost makes me wonder if I have an alter ego posting out there.

Not an alter ego, just somebody who has enough extra time on his hands to think a problem through to a logical conclusion.

[hatcher]

i dont want this to sound like a dunn bash because i like the guy but he should not be in the top 3 for batting. He takes a lot of pitches but he cannot in my opinion 'work the count'. He cannot intentionally foul off boarderline pitches nor does he have an effortless two strike swing. He always seems to get schooled against a pitcher that knows what he's doing. If he can put the ball in play more and cut the k total then im for it. But to say that his high obp offsets his high K total doesn't seem quite right.

[westofyou]

The Rodney Dangerfield of players.


CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
MODERN (1900-)
EXTRA BASE HITS >= 70
RUNS >= 90
RBI >= 100
RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
RCAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria

AGE YEAR AGE EBH R RBI RC/G RCAA
1 Johnny Bench 1970 22 84 97 148 2.24 35
2 Frank Robinson 1959 23 71 106 125 3.20 44
T3 Gus Bell 1953 24 72 102 105 1.37 22
T3 Adam Dunn 2004 24 80 105 102 2.92 52
T3 Vada Pinson 1963 24 73 96 106 2.28 37
T6 Wally Post 1955 25 76 116 109 2.71 39
T6 Frank Robinson 1961 25 76 117 124 4.39 62
T8 Johnny Bench 1974 26 73 108 129 2.09 38
T8 Frank Robinson 1962 26 92 134 136 5.19 82
10 Tony Perez 1969 27 70 103 122 2.01 36

[BadFundamentals]

wow this is a beautiful thing... :)

finally hearing some other people chime in with a more realistic/objective appraisal of where dunners is as a player right now.

pleasure to make your acquaintances.............

[flyer85]

Conservatism Bias and Confirmatory Bias:
Once we form opinions, we tend to overvalue information that reinforces them and undervalue information that undermines them (conservatism bias). We even tend to seek out supporting information (confirmatory bias). Thus, we irrationally cling to incorrect conclusions, and, to paraphrase Simon and Garfunkel, hear what we want to hear and disregard the rest.

[BadFundamentals]

Conservatism Bias and Confirmatory Bias:
Once we form opinions, we tend to overvalue information that reinforces them and undervalue information that undermines them (conservatism bias). We even tend to seek out supporting information (confirmatory bias). Thus, we irrationally cling to incorrect conclusions, and, to paraphrase Simon and Garfunkel, hear what we want to hear and disregard the rest.
or sometimes we say alot and don't say anything or
take ~60 words to say what could be said in 10.

[BadFundamentals]

Conservatism Bias and Confirmatory Bias:
Once we form opinions, we tend to overvalue information that reinforces them and undervalue information that undermines them (conservatism bias). We even tend to seek out supporting information (confirmatory bias). Thus, we irrationally cling to incorrect conclusions, and, to paraphrase Simon and Garfunkel, hear what we want to hear and disregard the rest.
oops sorry Ricardo Cabesa, I'm so used to being bashed over here I think I was being paranoid. Perhaps referring to westofyou post? Of course, if you were referring to me, I take back apology. ;) :thumbup:

[westofyou]

Yeah... I'm the confused one here.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[BadFundamentals]

Yeah... I'm the confused one here.

Thanks for pointing that out.
ha ha...i think he may have been hammering you for your table of rodney dangerfield players...

<nice herzog quote too>

[BRM]

ha ha...i think he may have been hammering you for your table of rodney dangerfield players...

<nice herzog quote too>

Based on Mr Cabesa's previous posts in this thread, I really don't think he was hammering woy. Just my observation.

[BadFundamentals]

Based on Mr Cabesa's previous posts in this thread, I really don't think he was hammering woy. Just my observation.
nah...Cabesa is agreeing with RedsRule (his words "nailed it")...and poking fun at guy who said Dunn should not bat 2nd (Larry Cable Guy comment) . Cabesa seems to be on board with some of us who are not ready to hand over the keys to the city to dunners.

woy, on the other hand wants to bat Dunn 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.

[Ryan the Reds Fan]

Ok so what would your lineup look like? I think I would go with:

D'Lo
Casey
Grif
Dunn
Kearns
Randa
Larue
Lopez
Pitcher

Would love to be able to place Freel at the top, but where do you realistically place him in the field?

[kbrake]

When I first read the title of the thread I thought it was a dumb idea, but you made some really good points. I dont see a problem with at least giving it a shot. Actually I think that makes the line-up much better and hope they give it a shot. I would never hit him 3rd, I think the 3 spot should be for the best hitter on the team no matter what. So Casey has that spot again this year.

[Stewie]

i dont want this to sound like a dunn bash because i like the guy but he should not be in the top 3 for batting. He takes a lot of pitches but he cannot in my opinion 'work the count'. He cannot intentionally foul off boarderline pitches nor does he have an effortless two strike swing. He always seems to get schooled against a pitcher that knows what he's doing. If he can put the ball in play more and cut the k total then im for it. But to say that his high obp offsets his high K total doesn't seem quite right.

But if he changes his swing and starts trying ot be a contact hitter, then he won't be as good. He's a power hitter, not a contact guy. A lot of his success comes from swinging hard and driving the ball. He is the Reds' best hitter, it doesn't make sense to move him down in the order and limit the number of at bats (as WOY said earlier).

[BadFundamentals]

Ok so what would your lineup look like? I think I would go with:

D'Lo
Casey
Grif
Dunn
Kearns
Randa
Larue
Lopez
Pitcher

Would love to be able to place Freel at the top, but where do you realistically place him in the field?

How about this?

Freel Nation (2B)
Dunners
the mayor
griff/kearns or pena
griff/kearns or pena
D-Lo (playing SS)
Randa (playing 3B)
Jason (at times a little scarier than Jason)

[SteelSD]

But if he changes his swing and starts trying ot be a contact hitter, then he won't be as good. He's a power hitter, not a contact guy. A lot of his success comes from swinging hard and driving the ball. He is the Reds' best hitter, it doesn't make sense to move him down in the order and limit the number of at bats (as WOY said earlier).

Bingo.

Give the most PA to the most productive players and your offense does well because you have the most productive players producing more often.

Stewie, you're a credit to your team's fan base.

[Mitri]

Since I've joined this board we've had about 20-30 threads concerning this matter. I'm all for batting Dunn 2nd for numerous reasons - most of which RedsRule mentions above - as are most of the people who I look for guidance/reality on this board.

But I recall a quote Miley made sometime last year, where he said (roughly), that batting Dunn 2nd in the order would put-off a majority of the fans - the fans who want to see the slugger batting cleanup, or at least 3rd - whether it best fits the team or not. I also recall Dunn saying that he didn't feel comfortable batting that high in the order (I believe this was when he had the short stint as leadoff, not sure). Those are two big reasons why it'll never happen. I wish it would. But it won't.

[#RedsRule#]

Ok so what would your lineup look like?

I am glad you asked:

1. D'angelo Jimenez
2. Adam Dunn
3. Austin Kearns
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Sean Casey
6. Joe Randa
7. Jason LaRue
8. Fillipe Lopez

Jiminez leads off unless Freel is starting at third, in which case he moves to 6th.

Kearns bats 3rd to break up the left handed hitters that the Reds have.

Casey bats 5th because even if though he only has 20HR power he still has an awesome swing and a penchant for driving in runs providing adequate protection for Griffey. If Griffey is out of the lineup Casey bats 4th and Pena bats 5th.

Randa is a poor mans Sean Casey, but still better than LaRue or Lopez/Aurillia.

[BadFundamentals]

Since I've joined this board we've had about 20-30 threads concerning this matter. I'm all for batting Dunn 2nd for numerous reasons - most of which RedsRule mentions above - as are most of the people who I look for guidance/reality on this board.

But I recall a quote Miley made sometime last year, where he said (roughly), that batting Dunn 2nd in the order would put-off a majority of the fans - the fans who want to see the slugger batting cleanup, or at least 3rd - whether it best fits the team or not. I also recall Dunn saying that he didn't feel comfortable batting that high in the order (I believe this was when he had the short stint as leadoff, not sure). Those are two big reasons why it'll never happen. I wish it would. But it won't.
Mitri, right now I'll bet you. I'll give you 2:1 odds. Miles was a first year manager last year and doing a little tip toeing. Not to mention all the injuries from last year. He will be more decisive this year.

I will bet you that Dunn gets a healthy dose of 2 hole opportunity at the very least in spring training and if goes well in ST then once season starts he'll be given the same opportunity..............

[flyer85]

nah...Cabesa is agreeing with RedsRule (his words "nailed it")...and poking fun at guy who said Dunn should not bat 2nd (Larry Cable Guy comment).

correct



Cabesa seems to be on board with some of us who are not ready to hand over the keys to the city to dunners.

Not necessarily. He is the an important offensive player on the Reds whose very, very unique set of skills(at this point) make him not a traditional 3,4 hitter(and certainly not the best option for the Reds). He should under no circumstance be placed at 5th or 6th in the order on an everyday basis. I could see batting him 5th/6th against a tough lefty.

As for how good he is, I'm willing to just wait and see what the future holds. However, if he is overpaid at $4M there a number of other hitters on the Reds who are outlandishly more overpaid that that.

[ochre]

Bingo.

Give the most PA to the most productive players and your offense does well because you have the most productive players producing more often.

Stewie, you're a credit to your team's fan base.
Think we could get him to switch to the Reds for a couple of fans to be named later?

[flyer85]

I am glad you asked:

1. D'angelo Jimenez
2. Adam Dunn
3. Austin Kearns
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Sean Casey
6. Joe Randa
7. Jason LaRue
8. Fillipe Lopez


BTW, nailed it again.

[ochre]

Almost makes me wonder if I have an alter ego posting out there.
Most likely.

[SteelSD]

Think we could get him to switch to the Reds for a couple of fans to be named later?

Forget that. I'll give the Phils two posters to be named now.

[#RedsRule#]

Most likely.

I resent that. I don't know the guy, and this is about the only issue we have seen exactly eye to eye on.

On the other hand it is a little creepy.

[ochre]

Didn't say it was you :)

[Puffy]

Forget that. I'll give the Phils two posters to be named now.

:MandJ: :MandJ: :MandJ:

[Blimpie]

Kearns bats 3rd to break up the left handed hitters that the Reds have.Just asking, but does anyone else but me think that this concept is highly over-emphasized? :confused:

[flyer85]

Just asking, but does anyone else but me think that this concept is highly over-emphasized? :confused:

No, not when you look at the splits for a lot of hitters. It can also force an opposing manager to use 3 pitchers instead of just one in a late innning situation

[Puffy]

Just asking, but does anyone else but me think that this concept is highly over-emphasized? :confused:

It depends on the bullpen your facing. Last year, against the Reds Bullpen, it wouldn't have been too bad to have three lefties in a row - Phil Norton (until they acquired Gabe) was it, and for most of the year teams wanted Phil Norton in the game.

Against Mike Myers, well you wouldn't want three lefties in a row against him.

So, is it overrated - sometimes yes, yes it is. But there are other times when it isn't.

Hows that for a non-answer :thumbup:

[KronoRed]

Just asking, but does anyone else but me think that this concept is highly over-emphasized? :confused:
Depends, if the lefties hit just as well vs righties then yes, if not, then it's a good idea

But..A Dunn needs to be high up, you MUST get him at bats

[Stewie]

Think we could get him to switch to the Reds for a couple of fans to be named later?

Thanks, but I think I would have to invoke my no-trade clause. I've waited patiently for Larry Bowa to be canned, and he finally was. I waited for Doug Glanville to be removed from the team, and he was (albeit replaced with Kenny Lofton). And now there are rumors circulating that Ed Wade's job could be in jeopardy if he doesn't deliver this year (which he most likely won't). Once he gets replaced, and then once Dallas Green leaves the organization (which I guess will be when he dies), I'll be able to kick up my feet and ride down easy street.

[ochre]

Thanks, but I think I would have to invoke my no-trade clause. I've waited patiently for Larry Bowa to be canned, and he finally was. I waited for Doug Glanville to be removed from the team, and he was (albeit replaced with Kenny Lofton). And now there are rumors circulating that Ed Wade's job could be in jeopardy if he doesn't deliver this year (which he most likely won't). Once he gets replaced, and then once Dallas Green leaves the organization (which I guess will be when he dies), I'll be able to kick up my feet and ride down easy street.
We have Casey calling you here in a bit. We'll see if he can't convince you :)

[westofyou]

Riddle me this? How come Dunn bares all the brunt of the strikeout talk? There are quite a few other guys on the team who k'd at a prodigous rate last season with nary the production of Dunn, yet over and over that's passed over like a Barry Manilow Cd in the Used Bin.

Freaking hilarious use of data out there... if that's what is being used to form opinions.


Player K/9 RC/27vsNL OPSvs league OBA vs league

Dunn 2.91 - 2.92 .178 .046
Kearns 3.00 - -.96 -.038 -.020
Pena 3.11 - 0.29 .064 -.028
Lopez 3.26 - -.65 -.059 -.027
LaRue 3.61 - -.32 -.013 -.007

[Raisor]

I was all for batting Dunn second a few years ago, but now that he's an established major league force, I want him hitting third or 4th.

I'd love to see Kearns in the 2-slot though.

[ochre]

nah, Kearns strikes out too much :)

[Raisor]

Mitri, right now I'll bet you. I'll give you 2:1 odds. Miles was a first year manager last year and doing a little tip toeing. Not to mention all the injuries from last year. He will be more decisive this year.

I will bet you that Dunn gets a healthy dose of 2 hole opportunity at the very least in spring training and if goes well in ST then once season starts he'll be given the same opportunity..............


I'll take that bet. Miley will use either Lopez or Randa in the 2-slot.

[Kc61]

Here's my lineup:

Jimenez (or Freel when playing)
Kearns
Dunn
Griffey
Casey
Randa (or second with Kearns sixth)
Aurilia
Larue

I wouldn't hit Dunn second because he hits homers. Give two guys the chance to get on before the homer. If Dunn hits second, too many of his homers are solo.

If you hit Dunn before Griffey, he gets good pitches to hit. Griffey is still feared. I prefer Dunn third, rather than fourth. If men are on base, I'd rather have Dunn up with one out than two outs. If he Ks with one out, Griffey makes more contact as a two-out hitter.

I might switch Randa (to second slot) and Kearns (to sixth slot). I'd like Kearns sixth if possible. Just don't know if Randa or Aurilia (or Lopez) at this stage will have a high enough OBP to hit second.

I'd also consider Kearns fifth and Casey sixth to break up the lefty hitters. But right now Casey is so much more consistent and such a superior hitter that I can't see hitting him below fifth. Agree that he should not hit second because he is so slow.

When Pena plays instead of Griffey, then Casey moves to fourth spot, and Pena hits fifth. Or Randa hits second, Kearns fifth and Pena sixth. At this stage don't see Pena hitting higher than fifth slot.

Nice problem to have, how to move around sluggers in middle of lineup.

[RFS62]

I'll take that bet. Miley will use either Lopez or Randa in the 2-slot.


I'll take that bet too. My guess is Randa.

I'd far prefer Dunn or Kearns.

[PuffyPig]

You need to have Kearns break up the 3 LH hitters.

You want your best 4 hitters hitting 2-5, insted of 3-6, so they get more AB's.

So, between Dunn, Casey and Griffey, who's best at 2nd? I'd say Dunn, because he gets on base the most, and has better wheels than the rest.

If you have our 4 best hitting 3-6, and want to use Kearns to separate the LH hittiers, you'll have to bat Casey or Griffey 6th, neither of which is very palatable.

So, the best lineup remains Jiminez,Dunn,Casey,Kearns,Griffey,Randa,Larue and Lopez.