Dunn on the bench for tonight's game -- defacto game thread

[Marc D]

hence the many threads about the importance of the components of OPS being more important than the sum of those components.

I prefer OBP to SLG, though i want my guys to have pop.

I'd say the magic number for Pena to get into the stratosphere is about a .325 OBP to go with what will always be an ungodly Slg%.

Anything between .300-.325 makes him a very good slugger, anything over .325 and he's in all time great land. If it gets below.300 then he(not Dunn) is Dave Kingman reincarnate.

Thats off the top of the head, I'm sure WOY or someone will straighten me out if its wrong. ;)

Just saw all of WOY's stuff above....disregard mine. :laugh:

[TRF]

Soriano has a lifetime OPS of about .820, with a high below .900.

He's a good offensive player. His OPS don't lie. Treating him like a god
is clearly wrong, but treating him like the .800 OPS guy he is is OK.

His OPS shows his true value.

no it doesn't, despite what you think of the stat. The components of OPS show his value. And that value is a high SLG. He has value despite his COMPLETE inability to take a walk.

[westofyou]

Hmmm...was HOFer Banks OBP-challenged?

Post 30 and into the pitching 60's his BA and Power dropped, hence his walks too.

[TeamCasey]

Me, I'd trade Casey, if that's possible.

You just want me to neg you. ;)

:p:

Honestly, there is not one person on this team that is untradeable this year.

Last year, my only untradeable was Kearns. Weird, huh?

[OnBaseMachine]

Lopez singles for his 3rd hit.

[TeamCasey]

Actually, I should say the year before. Time flies when you middle aged. :)

[westofyou]

Below .325 and above .525. Then below .335 and above .525


1 Tony Armas 1984 30 .531 .300 0.75
2 Matt Williams 1994 28 .607 .319 1.35
3 Sammy Sosa 1996 27 .564 .323 0.97
4 Juan Gonzalez 1992 22 .529 .304 0.85

1 Vinny Castilla 2004 36 .535 .332 0.50
2 Andre Dawson 1987 32 .568 .328 1.40
T3 Garret Anderson 2002 30 .539 .332 1.43
T3 Tony Armas 1984 30 .531 .300 0.75
T3 Dante Bichette 1994 30 .548 .334 0.77
T3 Dave Winfield 1982 30 .560 .331 1.32
7 Frank Thomas 1958 29 .528 .334 0.95
T8 Lee May 1971 28 .532 .332 1.84
T8 Henry Rodriguez 1996 28 .562 .325 1.30
T8 Matt Williams 1994 28 .607 .319 1.35
T11 Jose Cruz Jr. 2001 27 .530 .326 1.28
T11 Javier Lopez 1998 27 .540 .328 0.39
T11 Sammy Sosa 1996 27 .564 .323 0.97
T11 Matt Williams 1993 27 .561 .325 1.36
T15 Lee May 1969 26 .529 .331 1.57
T15 Alfonso Soriano 2002 26 .547 .332 1.68
17 Carlos Baerga 1994 25 .525 .333 0.90
18 Juan Gonzalez 1992 22 .529 .304 0.85



Go to .345 and it's 46 guys in all of history.

Guys just don't slug ungodly all year without the threat of getting on base too.

[flyer85]

Just got back from Batman Begins. One of the best movies I have ever seen. I made the right choise even if the Reds were winning. I see they have only given up 10 tonight. Hooray for DanO.

[flyer85]

Milton must be giving lessons

[KronoRed]

We're only down by 5..a TD gets us the lead

[OnBaseMachine]

Casey grounds into his 17th double play.

19 XBH
17 DP

[SteelSD]

Casey grounds into a Casey.

What is the MLB record for GIDP in a season? We may have to start a countdown.

[Patrick Bateman]

no it doesn't, despite what you think of the stat. The components of OPS show his value. And that value is a high SLG. He has value despite his COMPLETE inability to take a walk.

A high BA, low walks, average OBA and a high SL% equates to a fairly good offensive player. His corresponding OPS shows that value.

And by the way, OPS, by definition, is a component stat.

My point is that you can't have a high OPS yet be a bad offensive player. If one of the components is only fair, the other one must be higher to compensate.

OPS don't lie.

[TRF]

Guys just don't slug ungodly all year without the threat of getting on base too.

It's a brand new era woy. K's are ok, and chicks dig the longball. It seems guys, especially young guys no longer go to the plate with an approach. And working a walk doesn't seem to be in the plan.

[oneupper]

Casey grounds into a Casey.

What is the MLB record for GIDP in a season? We may have to start a countdown.


That one I know... Jim Rice 36

For Lefties Yaz 30..

[Marc D]

Go to .345 and it's 46 guys in all of history.

Guys just don't slug ungodly all year without the threat of getting on base too.

I knew you'd clear it up for me. Thanks. Whats your take on his chance to ever OBP% .330 or greater?

[SteelSD]

That one I know... Jim Rice 36

For Lefties Yaz 30..

Great. On pace to shatter both.

[Reds Fanatic]

Double play records

Most
(In A Season)
AL Jim Rice
Boston
36 1984
NL Brad Ausmus
Houston
30 2002
Ernie Lombardi
Cincinnati
1938

[oneupper]

Great. On pace to shatter both.


If..he stays healthy

[Matt700wlw]

Last year Dunn broke the K's record.

Casey could break the GIDP record.


I don't think that is exactly the kind of records they were after...

[flyer85]

Casey grounds into his 17th double play.

19 XBH
17 DPat least he doesn't K. He has productive outs

[Marc D]

Casey grounds into his 17th double play.

19 XBH
17 DP

Thats almost as inspiring a stat as Miltons 22(or whatever ridiculous number it is now) HR's.

Glad to see the high priced talent producing. :bang:

[RFS62]

Lopez just keeps getting better

He's got a rocket of an arm, and he's finally getting set before he unloads.

[SandyD]

I think the foxhole has been covered over with cement.

By god, they've built a darn Walmart over it!

missing the foxhole.

<sigh>

[westofyou]

That one I know... Jim Rice 36

For Lefties Yaz 30..

19 of those in RISP positions.

Rice had 25 by the end of June... that's the first goal.

[RFS62]

missing the foxhole.

<sigh>


It's been renovated. It's a bomb shelter now.

[KronoRed]

A walmart? lets go shopping for pitchers :D

[flyer85]

is somebody actually saying Casey has a high SLG%?

[Matt700wlw]

A walmart? lets go shopping for pitchers :D

Discount prices!!

[TeamCasey]

Sandy - cool avatar. Can you send me the full size, or a link for it?

[westofyou]

I knew you'd clear it up for me. Thanks. Whats your take on his chance to ever OBP% .330 or greater?

The man must learn to walk, or hit .300, one or the other.

He's never hit over .270 at any level.... yet.

[KronoRed]

It could happen on a Tuesday a Tuesday a Tuesday and that'd be very good...

Sorry..dumb commercial alert..on to the bottom of the 8th

[TeamCasey]

That avatar just screams Modge Podge project.

[CrackerJack]

A walmart? lets go shopping for pitchers


Discount prices!!


Chinese pitchers?

[flyer85]

it's amazing the job DanO did in the off-season. I'd get fired if I was that bad

[KronoRed]

it's amazing the job DanO did in the off-season. I'd get fired if I was that bad
You'd be lucky not to be thrown in jail for fraud in most lines of work.

[TRF]

A high BA, low walks, average OBA and a high SL% equates to a fairly good offensive player. His corresponding OPS shows that value.

And by the way, OPS, by definition, is a component stat.

My point is that you can't have a high OPS yet be a bad offensive player. If one of the components is only fair, the other one must be higher to compensate.

OPS don't lie.

I get that OPS is a component stat. It's why i used the word component.

OPS by itself as a number does not state what kind of value a player brings to a team. WMP's OPS is .985. Ungodly SLG is what gives him value DESPITE the fact that right now he's an out machine with an OBP quickly sliding to below .300.

BTW there are a lot of people that say Dave Kingman was a bad offensive player. He's portrayed in a negative light here all the time. He had some pretty amazing SLG numbers, but his best OBP was .343.

[OnBaseMachine]

Will this game end with Dunn not getting an atbat?

Probably.

[SandyD]

It's been renovated. It's a bomb shelter now.

Duck and Cover?

[KronoRed]

What's a modge podge project TC?

[KronoRed]

Duck and Cover?
Yes, because that school desk will protect you from the bomb :evil:

[RFS62]

Duck and Cover?


Yep. Do you remember those drills?

[Patrick Bateman]

BTW there are a lot of people that say Dave Kingman was a bad offensive player. He's portrayed in a negative light here all the time. He had some pretty amazing SLG numbers, but his best OBP was .343.

Those people are completely wrong.

Kingman was an above average offensive player.

[KronoRed]

Will this game end with Dunn not getting an atbat?

Probably.
Gotta save him for extras ;)

[flyer85]

If Casey had taken another day the Reds might be in there.

[TRF]

Those people are completely wrong.

Kingman was an above average offensive player.

No he just had a ton of power, and no ability to get on base.

[KronoRed]

Dunn on deck

I'm shocked

[RFS62]

Boy, Wily Mo is really pulling off the ball

[CrackerJack]

wily mo....takes a walk...

[KronoRed]

Dunn up :clap:

[Aronchis]

WMP walked JOY JOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OnBaseMachine]

Wow! Pena took a walk!

[westofyou]

Those people are completely wrong.

Kingman was an above average offensive player.

For a couple of years, but he was also horrible for a longer time.

[Patrick Bateman]

Dunn on deck

I'm shocked

Pena walks. That's even more shocking.

[TRF]

Pena's 4th BB in 84 AB's.

[SandyD]

Sandy - cool avatar. Can you send me the full size, or a link for it?

Little Leaguers (http://neworleansbaseball.com/album/details.php?image_id=18)

[Marc D]

Pena's 4th BB in 84 AB's.

He's pacing himself

[KronoRed]

Pena walks..Dunn Ks...cats and dogs living together, MASS hysteria

[Matt700wlw]

Dunn's 71st K

[OnBaseMachine]

Dunn swung at bad pitches.

[KronoRed]

If Dunn had started that K would have come in the 2nd and he would have homered there

Just sayin

[westofyou]

Dunn's 71st K

Firts as a PH this year.

[Raisor]

Dunn strikes out alot because he's a bad person and plays too much playstation. I think he wouldn't strike out as much if he tereated dogs better instead of kicking them and if he played x-bocx instead of playstation because I think Xboxes has better games.

[Matt700wlw]

Firts as a PH this year.

That makes it ok! :)

[TRF]

here is what makes it ok. the reds are playing in their 67th game.

Dunn has 50 BB's

now that is value!

I don't care how you get on base as long as you get on base.

I don't care how you make the out as long as the result is only 1 out.

[RFS62]

Dunn strikes out alot because he's a bad person and plays too much playstation. I think he wouldn't strike out as much if he tereated dogs better instead of kicking them and if he played x-bocx instead of playstation because I think Xboxes has better games.


Not to start an argument, but is there ANY point where Dunn would strike out too much, even with his current OPS?

[TeamCasey]

Thanks Sandy!

I should have said Mod Podge. It's like shellac. If I cut a nice slice of wood with my not so trusty chainsaw, I can shellac an image on it.

You probably did Mod Podge as a kid in an arts and crafts program. I'm thinking it's something TeamGriffey and I can do, but I want to do a couple cool ones for myself.

I'm thinking he can do some car/train ones on a rock or piece of wood.

[pedro]

Dunn swung at bad pitches.

The third strike was going to be called even if he didn't swing at it. He seems to have a hard time with hard stuff down and away.

[OnBaseMachine]

The third strike was going to be called even if he didn't swing at it. He seems to have a hard time with hard stuff down and away.

See that's why I don't really like Gameday. It showed strike 3 being almost in the dirt.

But I don't blame him for swinging at those low pitches..the umps call them strikes on him anyway. Someone needs to tell the ump that Dunn's knees are higher than most.

[Patrick Bateman]

Not to start an argument, but is there ANY point where Dunn would strike out too much, even with his current OPS?

No, if Dunn posted an identical OPS but struck out every AB where he didn't get on base, he would be an above average offensive player.

[TeamCasey]

I just got suckered into the worst hand. I had a pair against two flushes. Doh!

[TRF]

Not to start an argument, but is there ANY point where Dunn would strike out too much, even with his current OPS?

would it be different if he popped out to the pitcher 195 times?

[RFS62]

would it be different if he popped out to the pitcher 195 times?

Yes, that would be better.

[Raisor]

Not to start an argument, but is there ANY point where Dunn would strike out too much, even with his current OPS?


they're just outs.

all outs are bad.


Baseball Prospectus ran a study, 50 years long, that showed that K's have ZERO correlation to runs scored.

[KronoRed]

Yes, that would be better.
He'd be king pop up.

[TRF]

Yes, that would be better.

why?

[Patrick Bateman]

I just got suckered into the worst hand. I had a pair against two flushes. Doh!

Suckered with a pair?

How can you get suckered with a pair?

You do know that a pair isn't very good? Unless it's in reference to Pamela Lee Anderson.

[RFS62]

they're just outs.

all outs are bad.


Baseball Prospectus ran a study, 50 years long, that showed that K's have ZERO correlation to runs scored.


So if every single out he made was a strikeout, you'd be fine with that, as long as his other numbers stayed the same?

[Patrick Bateman]

why?

Sarcastic, I assume.

[Patrick Bateman]

So if every single out he made was a strikeout, you'd be fine with that, as long as his other numbers stayed the same?

An out is an out. Except strike outs usually take more pitches,tiring out the pitcher. Which is a good thing.

[TeamCasey]

Suckered with a pair?

How can you get suckered with a pair?

You do know that a pair isn't very good? Unless it's in reference to Pamela Lee Anderson.

:laugh: I didn't think they had it.

That's O.K., my fullhouse just wiped out their straights. I'm back in, plus some pocket change.

[Raisor]

Yes, that would be better.

why?

what possible difference would popping up to the pitcher make over the K's?

Look at Casey and Dunn last year.

Casey K'd 160 times less then Adam last year, yet Adam created more runs.

Dunn out OPSed Casey by 20 points or so (I'd have to look up the number to be sure, but it was something like that), and created 10 more runs per 600 TPA.

[Raisor]

So if every single out he made was a strikeout, you'd be fine with that, as long as his other numbers stayed the same?

yeah...

plus, it'd be cool seeing everyone melt down when he did it.

[westofyou]

Not to start an argument, but is there ANY point where Dunn would strike out too much, even with his current OPS?

If he hit .432 on balls in play like he does against RH this year then yes. If it's his .232 on balls in play vs LH's no.

Personally I'd like 150 as the ceiling.

That's Reggieriffic.

[CrackerJack]

So if every single out he made was a strikeout, you'd be fine with that, as long as his other numbers stayed the same?

And the long debated mystery continues...that of the enigma that is Dunn, they will be debating it still when he's long gone, and no one will really agree on anything...:)

[KronoRed]

Bob Boone was right about something

[M2]

Here's what I wanna know, how did Ryan Freel score two runs tonight if he only had one hit?

[Matt700wlw]

Here's what I wanna know, how did Ryan Freel score two runs tonight if he only had one hit?

He's that scrappy

[flyer85]

Can't wait until Hancock the savior gets here, he only walked 7 tonight

[Patrick Bateman]

why?

what possible difference would popping up to the pitcher make over the K's?

Look at Casey and Dunn last year.

Casey K'd 160 times less then Adam last year, yet Adam created more runs.

Dunn out OPSed Casey by 20 points or so (I'd have to look up the number to be sure, but it was something like that), and created 10 more runs per 600 TPA.

I think the difference is about 180 points or so. If Casey could get within 20 points of Dunn, we'd all die and go to heaven. Unless it meant Dunn stunk.

[OnBaseMachine]

Felipe is 4-5

[KronoRed]

Freel is beyond scrappy

[KronoRed]

Game over..we lose..5 in a row.

TC..win us some money to buy the team ;)

[SteelSD]

yeah...

plus, it'd be cool seeing everyone melt down when he did it.

I openly rooted for Dunn to hit the 200 mark last season. I figured people would flip the heck out if that happened.

But I was wrong. It only took 195 for folks to go all nuts about it. Go figure.;)

[CrackerJack]

Can't wait until Hancock the savior gets here, he only walked 7 tonight

That's right when he gets back they start winning.

[Chip R]

The Reds - from the top on down - make me want to throw my hands up in the air and run around and scream like a crazy person.

[RFS62]

The popping up to the pitcher question was really ridiculous, as was my question about striking out every time. I understand the argument about strikeouts. It would be hard not to understand that point of view if you read here, or study sabremetrics, as I've been trying to do for the past 5 years.

The total disregard for any aspect of situational hitting or putting the ball in play over strikeouts or ANY value at all attributed to productive outs seems to me to be just as ridiculous.

[flyer85]

and to think the Braves were struggling to score runs before they got to Cincy.

[Reds Fanatic]

Reds lose their 5th staight game. Have now been outscored 38-11 in those games.

[TeamCasey]

I'm up $760.

That should buy pitching, if John Allen were Queen for a day.

[M2]

Reds lose their 5th staight game. Have now been outscored 38-11 in those games.

Well, during the offseason perhaps we'll evaluate that.

[MWM]

Check it out (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36571). Someone on Reds Live is accusing Dunn of playing poorly on purpose. I didn't know he was playing poorly. :dunno:

Yep, and he's over 100 points, too.

[KronoRed]

and to think the Braves were struggling to score runs before they got to Cincy.

People LOVE to come see our pitching

[Marc D]

The Reds - from the top on down - make me want to throw my hands up in the air and run around and scream like a crazy person.

They make me want to wrap my hands around people named O'Brien's neck and squeeze.

[Raisor]

The popping up to the pitcher question was really ridiculous, as was my question about striking out every time. I understand the argument about strikeouts. It would be hard not to understand that point of view if you read here, or study sabremetrics, as I've been trying to do for the past 5 years.

The total disregard for any aspect of situational hitting or putting the ball in play over strikeouts or ANY value at all attributed to productive outs seems to me to be just as ridiculous.


The Reds lead the universe in K's, yet are in the top two or three in the NL in RS.

The Redsox led the AL in K's last year, yet lead MLB in RS.

The Yanks, the last time they won the Series, lead the AL in both K's and RS.

They really are "just outs".

I'm thinking about putting this in my sig:
It's not HOW you make an out, it's how MANY outs you make, and what you do when you DON'T make an out that counts.

[SteelSD]

The popping up to the pitcher question was really ridiculous, as was my question about striking out every time. I understand the argument about strikeouts. It would be hard not to understand that point of view if you read here, or study sabremetrics, as I've been trying to do for the past 5 years.

The total disregard for any aspect of situational hitting or putting the ball in play over strikeouts or ANY value at all attributed to productive outs seems to me to be just as ridiculous.

There's no disregard for any of that, RFS. The problem is such things tend to be drastically misunderstood and, thus, dramatically overvalued.

I don't find ignoring Cindy Crawford's mole to be at all ridiculous because, even with it, she's freaking HOT.

[OnBaseMachine]

Yep, and he's over 100 points, too.

I liked the reply by Shaggy Sanchez. I gave him rep for it.

[Raisor]

I don't find ignoring Cindy Crawford's mole to be at all ridiculous because, even with it, she's freaking HOT.


wait it's 1990? COOL!

[TRF]

There's no disregard for any of that, RFS. The problem is such things tend to be drastically misunderstood and, thus, dramatically overvalued.

I don't find ignoring Cindy Crawford's mole to be at all ridiculous because, even with it, she's freaking HOT.

ok, i get the concept, but that mole freaked me out more than Brittney Spears clone, Jessica Simpson and her man chin.

clones. brrr.

[M2]

The total disregard for any aspect of situational hitting or putting the ball in play over strikeouts or ANY value at all attributed to productive outs seems to me to be just as ridiculous.

Count me as one having near total disregard for putting the ball in play. If it's in play and it's not a hit, then I don't like it any better than a K. My knock on productive outs is that I don't want any part of a hitter trying to hit into one. If it happens yippee, if not I don't sweat it.

I do however like anything that gets a runner in from third with less than two outs, so that's the one spot where contact does something for me. Mind you, I'd never suggest a hitter turn himself into groundball, medium deep flyball machine for the sake of contact. I'd still rather have a baserunner.

In pretty much every case what I want is a player identifying the pitches he can hit and putting a good swing on them.

As for situational hitting, some players do seem to do well with RISP on a consistent basis. Yet I'd never, ever, never suggest making an attempt to identify situational hitting by the nature of the outs a player makes. If you want to see how a player responds to certain situations then look at the positive things he does in those situations. If he consistently measures out as a productive batter in those situations then you can make the case he's doing well in that situation. The insanity we sometimes run into around here is when you can demonstrate a player is being productive in a given situation, sometimes wildly productive, and people are making the argument that you should ignore the production because they don't like the types of outs he makes.

[rdiersin]

they're just outs.

all outs are bad.


Baseball Prospectus ran a study, 50 years long, that showed that K's have ZERO correlation to runs scored.

Was it zero or just not significant correlation? Two different things. I've checked this out for not quite as long time frame(2002-2004) and found a slight negative correlation for K's and Runs scored. Not significant enough to say anything, but not zero.

[MWM]

RFS, I don't if this helps, but one to think about the whole question is this: people who hold on to the idea that strikeouts are bad thing are, whether they realize it or not, making a hypothesis that striking out is bad for offensive production. In other words, they are saying that high strike out totals lead to fewer runs. That is a hypothesis that can absolutely be tested. If that were true, there would be SOME level of negative correlation to strikeouts and runs scored. If you run a correlation on runs scored in 2004 for all teams, the factor for strikeouts to runs scored is literally zero.

Thing is, if you're going to consider the negative impact of strikeouts relating to situational hitting, you also have to consider the negative impacts of making contact. We're seeing this year the impact of someone who clearly focuses to the extreme on situational hitting in Sean Casey.

I don't dismiss situational hitting entirely, but I think the instances where an approach should change to a "situational" approach are rare. A situational approach is almost always going to result in an out, or a "productive out". I'm not convinced that a normal approach in those situations wouldn't wind up yielding a successful result just as often as an "intent" to do something like move a runner or just get the bat on the ball, especially considering in those situations pitchers are pitching to avoid what the hitter is trying to do.

[Raisor]

Was it zero or just not significant correlation? Two different things. I've checked this out for not quite as long time frame(2002-2004) and found a slight negative correlation for K's and Runs scored. Not significant enough to say anything, but not zero.


http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617

[TRF]

Is there an outs created statistic?

something like K's + FO's + GO's + (DP's/2)

would you include sacrifices? i guess so. it does create an out, and unless a runner scores as a result, it's net effect is negative.

[rdiersin]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617

Thanks Raisor.

[M2]

rdiersin, good point that it's only close to zero and not absolute zero.

That said, the one thing those studies don't take into account is whether you'd hit with the same amount of power if you didn't risk a K. Historically more Ks have meant more HRs. More Ks also might lead to more walks. So there might be a hidden benefit to the K, that it's signpost for higher OB and SLG all the while tiring out pitchers earlier.

My take is that every hitter's different. If a guy Ks a lot and he's successful, more power to him. You can't ask Adam Dunn to be Albert Pujols just like you can't ask Sean Casey to be Adam Dunn.

[Raisor]

rdiersin, good point that it's only close to zero and not absolute zero.

That said, the one thing those studies don't take into account is whether you'd hit with the same amount of power if you didn't risk a K. Historically more Ks have meant more HRs. More Ks also might lead to more walks. So there might be a hidden benefit to the K, that it's signpost for higher OB and SLG all the while tiring out pitchers earlier.

.

the BP study actually does talk about that...

[M2]

the BP study actually does talk about that...

I feel like I'm in that "Simpsons did it" South Park episode.

[Raisor]

I feel like I'm in that "Simpsons did it" South Park episode.

eek! a pop culture reference I don't get!

Never got into South Park, except for Cartman singing "Come Sail Away".

[TRF]

seriously, is there an outs created stat? or something similar?

[TRF]

eek! a pop culture reference I don't get!

Never got into South Park, except for Cartman singing "Come Sail Away".

oh man have you missed out.

3rd grader that cuss are cool.

you will respect my authority!

[M2]

seriously, is there an outs created stat? or something similar?

I don't of anything like that. Though 1.000 - OB technically gives you an outs created rate.

[rdiersin]

rdiersin, good point that it's only close to zero and not absolute zero.

That said, the one thing those studies don't take into account is whether you'd hit with the same amount of power if you didn't risk a K. Historically more Ks have meant more HRs. More Ks also might lead to more walks. So there might be a hidden benefit to the K, that it's signpost for higher OB and SLG all the while tiring out pitchers earlier.

My take is that every hitter's different. If a guy Ks a lot and he's successful, more power to him. You can't ask Adam Dunn to be Albert Pujols just like you can't ask Sean Casey to be Adam Dunn.

They do give the correlations to ISO and SLG, as Raisor said. The hard part is that it is not particularly significant. For ISO, it actually is close with about a .3 correlation coefficient, but for the rest its not enough to judge anything.

[M2]

eek! a pop culture reference I don't get!

Never got into South Park, except for Cartman singing "Come Sail Away".

Rent the movie. It's one of the greatest musicals ever made ... just don't watch it with your uncle.

[westofyou]

just don't watch it with your uncle.

Thank you Philip

[TRF]

I don't of anything like that. Though 1.000 - OB technically gives you an outs created rate.

but it wouldn't take double plays into effect.

I'm curious as to the comparison of OB between the low K guy, and the high K guy where OBP is equal or close, say within 10 points, and the number of outs said batters create, including double plays.

Casey until this season has been a pretty low DP guy. This year He's K'd 18 time to Dunn's 70, but Casey has made more outs. Since we know he's made more outs, we can assume he has created more outs too, but I wonder how to figure that number out.

[Roy Tucker]

Roy’s game notes…

Grandma paid for all the food. Lizzy celebrated by eating 2 cheese coneys and cotton candy. Roy just got a hot dog. Jen got chicken strips to the tune of $7.75. The $20’s were flying out of Grandma’s pocketbook.

Pre-game – We get there too late for me to holler at Miley about Dunn. We’re standing about 20 ft. behind him during the Star Spangled Banner and I’m thinking about taking my pencil to Miley’s scorecard. Maybe he won't notice the Dunn LF. The lady who sung the SSB reminded me of a lady from church. Miles didn’t look happy.

1st inning – Furcal triples (man he can fly) and the .170 hitting Kelly Johnson hits a 2 run HR. Just like that. A Giles and Laroche 1B, a Estrada HBP, and a Langerhans BB (isn’t Langerhans some kind of body organ) yield a 3-zip lead. About 1/3 of the crowd is pro-Braves which I really hate and is making a *lot* of noise. Roy compensates by hollering his fool head off for the balance of the game. Ortiz weasels out of it by preying on the bottom of the lineup. Ortiz was getting lit up like a Christmas tree. We’re talking rockets, tracers, and blasts. Just like the Ortiz we saw last Tuesday against Tampa Bay.

Freel hits a rocket back up the middle and Lopez homers and just like that, it’s 3-2. Casey, Griffey, and Randa all ground out. Which starts a trend, Ramirez gets 15 ground ball outs out of the next 21 outs. Casey contributing 4 balls to the pitcher and SS. Ramirez was really helped out by an excellent Atlanta defense.

Poor Estrada takes a foul tip off the cup and goes down like he got caught by a Thomas Hearns hook. He was in a world of serious hurt. I mean, my nads ached just by watching at him. The ump did everything he could to give him time to recover. He sac’ed up and soldiered on.

Game settles down a little bit. Ramirez gets a good rhythm going and the Reds get only 2 more hits over the next 5 innings. Ortiz continues to give up solo HRs, Jones in the 3rd, Betimit in the 4th, and Jones again in the 5th. The last one was a real moon shot halfway up the second deck in LF. One of those Griffey almost stole off the top of the CF wall but he mistimed/misjudged it. A Mariners-era Griffey wold have gotten it with flair and ease.

Freel manufactures a 2 out run in the 5th (BB, SB, then scores on a Lopez single)

The real killer was the 6th when they brought in Keisler. Poor guy didn’t deserve his fate. Betemit reaches out and just serves one into LF. Everyone expects Ramirez to bunt. Instead, Betemit goes on the first pitch and Ramirez hits a perfect DP ball to Lopez. But the trouble is, Lopez is covering second, and it goes for a perfect run and hit. Furcal gets an infield hit and the bases are loaded without a decent hit ball. Keisler makes his only mistake of the inning and it’s a whopper. The Reds make Kelly Johnson look like Babe Ruth and he hits a grand slam. Johnson, a .170 hitter has 2 HRs and 6 RBIs. Jeez. 10-3 Braves.

Wily Mo hits a 2 run shot in the 6th to bring a rise out of the crowd to get the Reds back to 10-5. Casey kills a 7th inning rally with a 4-6-3 DP, er, Casey. And half the ballpark was yelling at him to not hit into a DP. An 8th inning rally dies with a Dunn K where he really looked bad and a Larue pop-up. Lopez gets his 4th hit in the 9th, but that’s all the boys got.

I’m not sure Freel is the long-term solution at 2B. He made a nice catch in the 1st on a pop-up but his grounder work is shaky. Some guys are smooth and some guys battle every ball. Freel battles. You could really see the enormous difference between the Furcal/Giles/A Jones troika up the middle vs. Lopez/Freel/Jr. A Reds grounder seemed to always find a Braves glove while the opposite seemed true for Braves’ grounders which always seemed to juuuuust slide by. The Braves up the middle defense is strong. Jones in CF made several nice plays while Jr. is a day late and a dollar short.

Kelly goes 1-3 but gets picked off after his hit. Runs out his hits hard and has speed. I keep thinking "Miley benched Dunn for *this*".

The guy sitting down the row was really on the Reds staff to nail someone after giving up 5 HRs. Both Andruw Jones and Kelly Johnson were swinging from the heels. Can’t blame them after seeing the melon balls the Reds staff was serving up. But I was kinda hoping a Red would nail a Brave with a pitch and start something. Anything. Just show a little life. The Braves with just teeing off with impunity. It was like watching the US Open.

But, a good time was had. Grandma enjoyed the game, the girls had fun, I explained the OF out of town scoreboard to Lizzy, and my money was not spent. Nice evening at the ball park, just rotten pitching by the Reds. And Milton goes tomorrow. Jeez.

[westofyou]

Thanks Roy... one month until I get to enjoy a schelacking at the GAB... good times.

[traderumor]

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050618/SPT04/506180388/1071

Milton starts tonight's game, and Ortiz probably will remain in the rotation as well.

"You've got to hope they figure it out," Reds manager Dave Miley said.

I didn't have any confidence in the Reds braintrust, but now it is restored :rolleyes:

[RFS62]

"You've got to hope they figure it out," Reds manager Dave Miley said.


Problem is, Dave, that we've already figured it out.

[RFS62]

Great account Roy. And major props for saying "run and hit" instead of "hit and run"

[GAC]

I have developed one huge case of apathy for this team. I never thought, in my 40 years of watching the Reds (and some mediocre teams in that time) that I would ever loss it - but I have.

I have no desire to watch this team after the 3rd inning. They have drained me completely. I didn't think it could happen.

If I want to watch pitching to contact, then I go to my kid's games. At least they understand the concept better.

And not that firing Miley is gonna help this team/organization much; but the longer they hold on to this guy, the more I see that this FO hasn't got a clue at all as to what to do.

My kids want to go to a game, and I'm probably gonna try and do so before summer. But I haven't decided if it will be the Reds or Indians. I want them to see some facsimile of what baseball is -and right now, that is not found in Cincy. And since they are impresiionable and learning - I don't want them to pick up any bad habits. ;)

[RedsBaron]

I have developed one huge case of apathy for this team. I never thought, in my 40 years of watching the Reds (and some mediocre teams in that time) that I would ever loss it - but I have.

I have no desire to watch this team after the 3rd inning. They have drained me completely. I didn't think it could happen.

If I want to watch pitching to contact, then I go to my kid's games. At least they understand the concept better.

And not that firing Miley is gonna help this team/organization much; but the longer they hold on to this guy, the more I see that this FO hasn't got a clue at all as to what to do.

My kids want to go to a game, and I'm probably gonna try and do so before summer. But I haven't decided if it will be the Reds or Indians. I want them to see some facsimile of what baseball is -and right now, that is not found in Cincy. And since they are impresiionable and learning - I don't want them to pick up any bad habits. ;)
The coaches of my 12 year old's Little League team plan to take the kids to a baseball game in a few weeks-a minor league game in Charleston, WV. We can't risk them picking up bad habits by watching the Reds. :devil:
The Reds have more problems than I can count, and no, firing Dave Miley won't solve everything or even most things---but I will be so glad when Miley is fired. I didn't believe that the Reds could find a worse manager than Bob Boone, but they did. Now I refuse to believe they can find a worse manager than Miley, but I should never underestimate the incompetence of Reds management.

[MWM]

Am I missing something here. Looking the correlation chart Raisor posted, it looks to be a slight positive correlation, meaning that more strikeouts led to more runs. Now the correlation factor is so small it really means nothing, but if it leans any direction, it's not towards more strikeouts leading to less runs.

[RFS62]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

[ochre]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.
I think that is what it is. The SOs are a side effect of the behavior that allows some players to generate a lot offense. That would be mostly the slugging, as I think a good portion of the residual OBP effect is pitcher's fear of the SLG numbers (see: Bonds, Barry for an extreme example).

[KronoRed]

Thanks Roy..good write up :)

[M2]

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

Agreed. If you see Sean Casey suddenly racking up the whiffs, that's trouble, just like it would be if Adam Dunn was hitting a lot of slow rollers.

[Team Clark]

Dunn strikes out alot because he's a bad person and plays too much playstation. I think he wouldn't strike out as much if he tereated dogs better instead of kicking them and if he played x-bocx instead of playstation because I think Xboxes has better games.

You would think with as much time as Adam spends playing PS2 MLB he'd pick up a thing or two. :laugh:

We've already moved onto Fight Night Round 2. You can make your own Apollo Creed and Clubber Lang.

[rdiersin]

Is it possible that teams with players who strike out a lot are allowing those players to play because of the other things they do well, like Dunn?

If you look at career strikeout leaders you'll see some pretty impressive names.

But if you're a BA driven contact hitter, strikeouts are more detrimental to your game.

I think the important part is that their is somewhat a correlation to ISO and Strikeouts. So, if a team has a higher ISO, the more likely it is to strikeout. The ISO correlates with the runs scored. Its not really saying that strikeouts are good, but rather that they are not bad. Also, if you are a contact hitter with low power, high strikeout totals more than likely aren't tolerated and you won't be playing. So its hard to say anything about the value of strikeouts.